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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -24 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 8 · Value -51 · Sentiment 37 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $85.67 vs $86.56 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Robinhood Markets, Inc.
HOOD NASDAQRobinhood Markets, Inc. operates a modern financial services platform that provides commission-free trading and investing tools through a single, app-based cloud platform powered by proprietary technology. The company offers retail brokerage services, enabling users to trade U.S.-listed stocks, Exchange Traded Funds, options, cryptocurrencies, futures, and prediction markets. Key features include fractional shares, real-time market data, dividend reinvestment, recurring investments, advanced trading tools, and cash management options such as debit card services. Its vertically integrated design supports fraud detection, derivatives trading, and portfolio management for stocks, ETFs, and crypto. Robinhood Markets, Inc. serves individual investors seeking accessible entry into capital markets, impacting the financial services sector by democratizing trading. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Menlo Park, California, it continues to deliver innovative products tailored to contemporary investing needs across multiple asset classes.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 2.05
Total Equity: $9.15B
Shares: 918,536,585
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.26B
EBITDA: $2.18B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.26B
Revenue: $4.47B
Revenue: $4.47B
Revenue: $4.47B
Total Equity: $9.15B
Tax Rate: 10.7%
Equity: $9.15B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.26B
Current Liabilities: $28.77B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $9.15B
Shares: 918,536,585
Shares: 918,536,585
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 918,536,585
Stock Price: $86.56
Net Income: $1.88B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:45pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.8B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $3.0B | $4.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $509.0M | $583.0M | $452.0M | $504.0M | $745.0M |
| Gross Profit | $1.3B | $775.0M | $1.4B | $2.4B | $3.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.9B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Operating Income | -$1.6B | -$966.0M | -$531.0M | $1.1B | $2.1B |
| Net Income | -$3.7B | -$1.0B | -$541.0M | $1.4B | $1.9B |
| EBITDA | $430.0M | -$860.0M | -$455.0M | $1.1B | $2.2B |
| EPS | $-7.49 | $-1.17 | $-0.61 | $1.60 | $2.12 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-7.49 | $-1.17 | $-0.61 | $1.56 | $2.05 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:21pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $6.3B | $6.3B | $4.8B | $4.3B | $4.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $19.3B | $22.9B | $31.8B | $25.1B | $36.3B |
| Total Assets | $19.8B | $23.3B | $32.3B | $26.2B | $38.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $12.3B | $16.3B | $25.5B | $18.1B | $28.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $12.5B | $16.4B | $25.6B | $18.2B | $29.0B |
| Total Equity | — | $7.0B | $6.7B | $8.0B | $9.2B |
| Retained Earnings | -$3.9B | -$4.9B | -$5.4B | -$4.0B | -$2.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:45pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$884.8M | -$852.0M | $1.2B | -$157.0M | $1.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$63.2M | -$28.0M | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | -$948.0M | -$880.0M | — | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$125.4M | $0 | -$93.0M | -$6.0M | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | -$608.0M | -$257.0M | -$653.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $4.1B | -$913.0M | -$11.0M | -$651.0M | $1.2B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:45pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -25.2% | +37.3% | +58.2% | +51.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -40.7% | +82.3% | +73.2% | +52.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +41.1% | +45.0% | +298.9% | +98.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +72.1% | +47.4% | +360.8% | +33.5% |
| EBITDA Growth | -300.0% | +47.1% | +349.5% | +92.1% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:58Even the bull case prices 32% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 81%. Caveat: revenue-DCF fits financials poorly (reported revenue omits net interest) — treat the legs as rough.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($86.56) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +65% | 35.0% | $58.61 | -32% |
| Base — stabilizes | +44% | 35.0% | $35.15 | -59% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +22% | 35.0% | $20.03 | -77% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +15% | 35.0% | $16.66 | -81% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a more disquieting story than the "fair value" verdict lets on. Look at the quarterly trajectory: revenue went $637M → $1.01B → $927M → $989M → $1.27B → $1.28B → $1.07B. The most recent Q1 2026 print is a 16% sequential decline from Q4 2025, and net income collapsed from $605M to $350M — margin compressed from 47.2% to 32.8% in a single quarter. The 51.6% YoY revenue growth headline is arithmetically true but flattered by an easy Q1 2025 comp ($927M); the two-quarter run-rate is decelerating hard. This is exactly the pattern you'd expect from a business whose revenue is levered to crypto/options trading volumes rather than a subscription flywheel — and the Q4 2024 print with a 90.3% net margin ($916M NI on $1.01B revenue) reeks of a tax/deferred-asset benefit rather than operating leverage, which the models glide past.
The prior stack is internally contradictory in ways worth flagging. Pre-flight calls this "high-growth profitable" with accelerating growth; the synthesis calls it fair value; the thesis evaluator scores it -7 with the top bear ("margin compression contradicts the narrative mid-acceleration") outweighing bulls; and the narrative layer says fundamentals are doing all the work with negligible story premium. These don't reconcile. If margins are compressing 1,440bps QoQ while growth decelerates, the "durable high-margin fintech" framing embedded in the 17.4x P/S and 42x P/E is precisely the wrong frame — this is a transaction-fee business with a crypto beta, not a SaaS platform. The classification model is doing the heavy lifting here, and I think it's mis-bucketing HOOD. The narrative engine's "platform-monopoly" archetype is also generous: Fidelity, Schwab, and IBKR match on price, and Coinbase/Kraken match on crypto — there's no monopoly here.
A careful contrarian bull would counter: Q1 is seasonally soft for retail trading, crypto had a rough Jan-Mar 2026 tape, and the ~33% net margin is still exceptional in capital markets. ROIC of 38% is real. The 10 insider sales listed are small (all sub-14k share lots, likely 10b5-1 or RSU-related) and the secondary signal actually labels this "Net Insider Buying" — worth noting the models contradict themselves here too. Operating CF of $1.64B against a $78B cap is a ~2.1% cash yield, which isn't cheap but isn't insane for the growth profile. The bull case survives if Q2/Q3 2026 reaccelerates and margins normalize to the 40%+ range. But that's a bet on crypto tape and rate-sensitive cash sweep economics, not on business quality.
I dissent from the synthesis "fair value" call, leaning overvalued. At 17.8x sales and 42x earnings, HOOD needs to sustain 30%+ revenue growth AND hold ~40% net margins to justify $86 — and the most recent quarter fails both tests simultaneously. Normalize on trailing four quarters ($4.61B revenue, ~$1.9B NI blended) and apply a fintech-appropriate 25x P/E (still generous for a volume-cyclical broker), you get ~$47B market cap or ~$52/share. Even at a 30x multiple acknowledging platform optionality, you get ~$63. The gap from $86 to a $55-65 fair value range is the "durable platform" premium that Q1 2026 just undermined. The narrative engine is right that price tracks DCF — but the DCF inputs almost certainly assume mean-reversion in margins that isn't showing up. I'd wait for Q2 2026 to see whether the margin compression was seasonal noise or the start of a structural re-rating. Table-pounding conviction on the short side would require confirmation the crypto cycle has turned; for now, this is a "trim/avoid" not a "short."
GPT Reading
What stands out is not just that Robinhood became profitable, but how violently the income statement inflected: revenue went from $1.87B in 2023 to $2.95B in 2024 and $4.47B in 2025, while operating income swung from a $531M loss to $1.06B and then $2.09B. That is real operating leverage, not cosmetic adjustment. Gross margin at 83.3% and operating margin at 46.8% for 2025 are exceptional for any consumer finance platform. The balance sheet is also cleaner than most fintech stories that get this expensive: $4.26B of cash, no debt, and $1.64B of operating cash flow. If I looked only at the annual progression, I would say the market is right to treat Robinhood less like a fragile broker and more like a scaled financial distribution platform with unusually high monetization power.
But the quarterly data tells a more cautious story than the annual numbers. The latest quarter, 2026-03-31, shows revenue of $1.07B, up from $927M a year earlier, so still healthy at roughly 15% YoY, yet meaningfully below the 2025 exit rate of $1.27B-$1.28B in the prior two quarters. Net income also dropped to $350M from $605M in 2025-12 and $556M in 2025-09, with net margin falling to 32.8% from 47.2% and 43.6%. Even allowing for seasonality or market activity swings, that is a material compression in both revenue run rate and profitability. At $77.95B market cap, investors are paying about 17.4x trailing sales and about 41x trailing earnings for a business whose most recent quarter annualizes to only $4.28B of revenue and $1.4B of net income. On that run rate, the valuation is closer to 18x sales and 55x earnings. That is not absurd if growth is re-accelerating, but it is too rich for a platform whose transaction-driven economics can soften this quickly.
The key contradiction with the more benign “fair value” framing is that the market is valuing Robinhood on peak-ish profitability while the freshest data already shows normalization. The bizarre 2024-12 quarter, with $916M of net income on $1.01B of revenue and a 90.3% margin, is clearly not a representative base for extrapolation, and even 2025’s 42.1% annual net margin looks aggressive for underwriting a long-duration multiple in a cyclical retail trading business. Yes, ROE of 20.6% and ROIC of 38.3% are excellent, but those returns are being generated during a period of unusually favorable retail engagement and asset-market conditions. I think the right read is that Robinhood is a very good business, but not yet a business that deserves to be capitalized as if 35%-45% net margins and 30%+ top-line growth are durable through a full cycle. At $86.56, the stock is pricing in that durability.
The best counterargument is strong. Revenue did not merely recover; it more than doubled from 2023 to 2025, and unlike in prior hype cycles, the company is now keeping a huge share of that incremental revenue as profit. A debt-free platform with $4.26B in cash can invest, buy back stock, or absorb regulatory shocks better than most fintech peers. Even the “weaker” latest quarter still produced $350M of earnings on $1.07B of revenue, which would have looked extraordinary two years ago. If 2026 simply settles into a $4.5B-$5.0B revenue base with 30%+ net margins, then a premium multiple is justified because Robinhood has proven it can turn engagement into cash at scale. The bull case also fairly notes that traditional brokerage comps may be too conservative if the company continues broadening beyond vanilla trading into a higher-frequency, higher-wallet-share consumer finance ecosystem.
What would change my mind is not another good annual summary; it is evidence in the next two quarters that the March 2026 slowdown was noise rather than the beginning of a de-rating in fundamentals. If revenue gets back above $1.20B quarterly and net margin returns to 40%+, I would concede the business can sustain closer to the 2025 earnings power the market is capitalizing. Likewise, if operating cash flow continues compounding around the current $1.64B annual level while equity grows beyond $9.15B without leverage, the valuation premium becomes easier to defend. On the other hand, if quarterly revenue stays around $1.0B-$1.1B and earnings remain in the low-$300Ms, then the stock is plainly too expensive and should trade more like 25x-35x normalized earnings, which points materially below today’s price.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers tell a story of a genuine business transformation that is now colliding with its own valuation. Robinhood went from $1.87B in 2023 revenue and a $541M loss to $4.47B and $1.88B in net income by year-end 2025—an extraordinary inflection, with 83% gross margins, 47% operating margins, and a clean balance sheet holding $4.26B cash against zero debt. That is real escape velocity. But the most recent print breaks the trajectory: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.07B is only 15% above the $927M year-ago quarter, a collapse from the 51% full-year 2025 growth rate, and it fell 16% sequentially from Q4’s $1.28B. Net margin compressed to 32.8% from 47.2% the prior quarter and 43.6% the quarter before that. At $86.56 and a $78B market cap, the stock trades at 42x trailing earnings and 18x sales on a business whose growth just decelerated by two-thirds in a single quarter. The market is still pricing the 2025 run-rate, not the 2026 slope.
What stands out hardest is the contradiction between the glossy annual metrics and the quarterly tape. ROIC of 38% and net margins above 40% on a full-year basis look like a scaled fintech platform; the last ninety days look like a cyclical brokerage whose crypto- and options-driven upside is mean-reverting. Q4 2024’s 90% net margin was clearly distorted by one-time items, so the clean earnings power is closer to the mid-to-high 30s—respectable, but not the kind of structural monopoly that supports 17–18x revenue. Insider activity reinforces the caution: the last ten filings are exclusively sales, totaling tens of thousands of shares across mid-July 2026, which directly contradicts the secondary signal claiming “net insider buying.” That is a data integrity flag, and the raw tape is what matters.
The bull case that deserves weight is straightforward. Full-year 2025 revenue grew 51% to $4.47B with $1.88B in earnings and $1.64B in operating cash flow; the company has demonstrated it can generate software-like incremental margins once scale is reached. If crypto volumes re-accelerate, gold/subscription attach rates keep climbing, and international expansion contributes meaningfully, a mid-20s growth rate on 35–40% net margins would still justify a premium multiple versus traditional brokers. The zero-debt fortress balance sheet and 20%+ ROE give management room to buy back stock or invest through a soft patch without balance-sheet stress. A smart opponent would argue Q1 is seasonally soft, that 15% is a floor not a ceiling, and that at roughly fair value to the composite DCF the asymmetry is still to the upside if the platform narrative reasserts.
I weigh that less because the valuation already embeds durable 30%+ growth and margin stability that the latest quarter actively undermines. Paying 42x earnings and 34x EV/EBITDA for a business showing sequential revenue decline and 1,400 basis points of margin compression in one quarter is not a discount to a durable winner—it is a premium to a peak print. The thesis evaluation’s −7 score and the explicit call-out of margin compression mid-acceleration match what the income statement is saying. Narrative intensity is minimal and price sits within 0.4% of DCF fair value precisely because the story has already been cashed in; there is no cult premium left to cushion a growth miss.
I would flip constructive if Q2 2026 revenue reaccelerates above 30% year-over-year with net margins reclaiming 40%, or if management prints clear evidence that non-transaction revenue (subscriptions, interest, international) has become large enough to decouple results from crypto and equity volume cycles. A sustained multi-quarter return to $1.3B-plus quarterly revenue run-rate at mid-40s margins would make 42x earnings defensible again. Until then, the stock is priced for a continuation of 2025 that Q1 2026 already put in doubt.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Robinhood has undergone a striking operating inflection: revenue grew from $1.36B (2022) to $4.47B (2025), gross margin expanded from 57.1% to 83.3%, and operating margin swung from -71.1% to +46.8%. Net income turned from -$1.03B to +$1.88B, and 2025 FCF of $1.64B corroborates the earnings (OCF/NI ratio noted as weak on the module but the multi-year cash swing is real). Liquid cash of $4.26B with no net debt makes the business self-funding with no survival question.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Composition of 2025 revenue between transaction, net interest, and other - to gauge rate sensitivity
- Customer/asset concentration and cohort retention metrics from the 10-K
- Details of SBC vesting schedule and any RSU cliff that would keep dilution elevated
- Any pending regulatory matters (PFOF, crypto) that could impair revenue lines
- Segment profitability - whether crypto and derivatives contribution is sustainable or spike-driven
The e2e synthesis lands at a composite FV of $85.12 and signal-adjusted FV of $86.91 against a $86.56 print - a rounding-error gap. The two component methods disagree wildly: the anchored-PE says $106 (roughly 22% upside) and the EPV floor says $12 (implying the market is paying almost entirely for growth, not for run-rate earnings power). Splitting that spread is exactly what the composite does, and the resulting $85 is defensible for a Solid-quality business with real cash flow but 17% annual share count creep.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Net new funded accounts and ARPU trajectory in next 10-Q
- Crypto revenue mix and take-rate sustainability post any regulatory action
- SBC as % of revenue and net buyback pace - is dilution slowing
- Interest-rate-sensitive net interest revenue as rates normalize
- Options DARTs trend - core high-margin volume line
Sentiment on HOOD is running warm. Bernstein just hiked its target to $160 (78% upside call), the news flow is dominated by a fresh 'event contracts / prediction markets' growth story ($10M to $156M in a year), and the CFO is out doing IPO-access media hits - all classic signs of a strengthening bull narrative attaching itself to the name. The archetype is platform-monopoly with medium cult coefficient, and momentum is strong_positive (54.9% CAGR), so the tape is actively rewarding the story. Analyst tone is skewed bullish with target revisions going up, not down. The counter-pressure is macro: 10y at 4.68%, market PE 26.9, and a nascent neutral regime mean any risk-off flinch lands hard on a 2.34-beta retail-brokerage name whose earnings are levered to trading volumes and crypto. But right now the narrative pressure is clearly outrunning the macro drag, and news like 'stock is 43% off its high' frames the setup as a recovery story rather than a broken one. Net: a real, visible tailwind, not a mania - the intensity is described as minimal and durability only moderate, so this is push, not euphoria.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether other sell-side desks follow Bernstein higher or the $160 PT stays a lone outlier
- Sustained growth in event-contract revenue - a single soft print would puncture the new narrative
- VIX breaking above 20 or the regime flipping risk-off, which would punish the 2.34 beta disproportionately
- Crypto tape - a sharp BTC/ETH drawdown would immediately compress HOOD sentiment
- Any regulatory noise on options or crypto that would reactivate the bear archetype
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
Prediction unavailable. No usable fair-value anchor — composite, DCF and anchored-PE are all absent from valuation-synthesis. Typical for pre-profit / narrative-platform names where those methods don't apply.