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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 6, 2026
17 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 6, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 13 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +23 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 86 · Value -29 · Sentiment 30 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $146.20 vs $88.74 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Interactive Brokers Group Inc.

IBKR NASDAQ
Financial Services · Capital Markets
Greenwich, CT 06830, United States interactivebrokers.com Updated Aug 5, 2:31am
Price
$88.63
Market Cap
$150.3B
Employees
3,182
Beta
1.34
Avg Volume
4,675,780
Last Dividend
$0.34
CEO
Mr. Milan Galik

Interactive Brokers Group Inc. is a global electronic brokerage firm that provides trading and custody services for individual investors, financial advisors, hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, introducing brokers, and other institutional clients. The company offers access to a broad range of asset classes, including stocks, options, futures, foreign exchange, bonds, mutual funds, and exchange-traded funds across numerous international markets. Interactive Brokers Group Inc. generates revenue primarily from trading commissions, net interest income on client balances, and various ancillary services such as financing, securities lending, and portfolio analysis tools. Its platforms are designed for active and professional traders, featuring advanced order types, algorithmic trading capabilities, and comprehensive market data. Headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut, and founded in 1978, Interactive Brokers Group Inc. plays a significant role in modern electronic trading infrastructure, connecting clients to global liquidity and providing a scalable solution for both retail and institutional market participants.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 6, 2026 12:18am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$88.74
as of Aug 6, 12:25am (17d ago)
Change · Aug 6
+0.11 (+0.12%)
Day Range
$88.68 – $90.92
52-Week Range
$58.95 – $97.84
50-Day MA
$90.61
200-Day MA
$76.31
Volume
4,586,478.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 17d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 445,484,364.00
Float 435,031,103.00
Free Float 97.7%
High free float — 97.7% of shares trade freely, ~2.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 12:30am (17d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:34am (18d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 6, 2026 12:16am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
40.59
Stock Price: $88.63
EPS (Diluted): 2.22
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
1.95
Stock Price: $88.63
Total Equity: $20.47B
Shares: 443,243,243
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
3.83
Market Cap: $150.34B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.96B
EBITDA: $9.09B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$34.8B
Market Cap: $150.34B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.96B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
89.8%
Gross Profit: $9.18B
Revenue: $10.22B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
86.0%
Operating Income: $8.79B
Revenue: $10.22B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
9.6%
Net Income: $984.00M
Revenue: $10.22B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
4.8%
Net Income: $984.00M
Total Equity: $20.47B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
51.8%
Operating Income: $8.79B
Tax Rate: 8.7%
Equity: $20.47B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.96B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $20.47B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$23.06
Revenue: $10.22B
Shares: 443,243,243
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$46.19
Total Equity: $20.47B
Shares: 443,243,243
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$35.67
Operating CF: $15.81B
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 443,243,243
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.4%
Last Dividend: $0.34
Stock Price: $88.63
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $984.00M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 6, 2026 12:13am
Compares IBKR against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:34am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.9B $4.2B $7.8B $9.3B $10.2B
Cost of Revenue $635.0M $778.0M $913.0M $1.0B $1.0B
Gross Profit $2.3B $3.4B $6.9B $8.3B $9.2B
Operating Expenses $289.0M $288.0M $351.0M $454.0M $387.0M
Operating Income $2.0B $3.1B $6.5B $7.8B $8.8B
Net Income $308.0M $380.0M $600.0M $755.0M $984.0M
EBITDA $2.1B $3.2B $6.7B $8.0B $9.1B
EPS $0.65 $0.95 $1.43 $1.75 $2.23
EPS (Diluted) $0.65 $0.94 $1.42 $1.73 $2.22
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:34am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $2.4B $3.4B $3.8B $3.6B $5.0B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $109.1B $115.1B $128.4B $150.1B $203.2B
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $98.9B $103.5B $114.4B $133.5B $182.8B
Total Equity $10.2B $11.6B $14.1B $16.6B $20.5B
Retained Earnings $953.0M $1.3B $1.9B $2.5B $3.4B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:34am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $5.9B $4.0B $4.5B $8.7B $15.8B
Capital Expenditure
Free Cash Flow
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks
Net Change in Cash $5.1B $3.3B $4.0B $7.6B $15.1B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:34am (18d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +42.6% +85.8% +19.6% +9.7%
Gross Profit Growth +48.1% +101.3% +20.7% +10.6%
Operating Income Growth +55.1% +108.7% +20.2% +12.1%
Net Income Growth +23.4% +57.9% +25.8% +30.3%
EBITDA Growth +50.6% +108.5% +19.8% +13.4%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:34am (18d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-09-01 $0.09
2026-06-01 $0.09
2026-02-27 $0.08
2025-12-01 $0.08
2025-08-29 $0.08
2025-05-30 $0.32
2025-02-28 $0.25
2024-11-29 $0.25
2024-08-30 $0.25
2024-05-31 $0.25
2024-02-29 $0.10
2023-11-30 $0.10
2023-08-31 $0.10
2023-05-31 $0.10
2023-02-28 $0.10
2022-11-30 $0.10
2022-08-31 $0.10
2022-05-31 $0.10
2022-02-28 $0.10
2021-11-30 $0.10
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 13 computed · 6 not applicable · 5 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:59
0.8 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Recovery pays +39%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 52%. Ratio 0.8:1. Caveat: revenue-DCF fits financials poorly (reported revenue omits net interest) — treat the legs as rough.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($88.74)
Bull — recovery +31% 31.4% $123.75 +39%
Base — stabilizes +21% 27.3% $80.77 -9%
Bear — keeps slipping +10% 23.2% $50.95 -43%
Stress — last quarter repeats +18% 14.5% $42.20 -52%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-03-31) — growth stays at 18.1% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.00). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +24.7% · net income +27.4% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Mar 31, 2026 (revenue +18.1% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for IBKR — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-06 00:29:30
Verdict Fair-to-slightly-cheap around $88-90 with Q1 2026 re-acceleration ($699M, +18% YoY) not yet in consensus; fair value $92-98, but rate-cut risk caps upside — accumulate under $85, hold here, trim above $100.

The reported margins are nonsensical on their face — quarterly "net income" of $1.17B on $699M revenue (167% margin) versus annual 2025 NI of $984M on $10.22B revenue (9.6% net margin) tells me the quarterly NI line is consolidated/pre-minority-interest or includes trading gains booked differently, while the annual figure strips out the ~90% non-controlling interest that flows to the Peterffy-controlled operating company. This is the classic IBKR data trap and every model above appears to have ignored it. ROE of 4.8% and ROA of 0.48% look terrible until you realize the reported equity/asset base includes customer segregated funds and the minority interest — the economically relevant ROE on public float capital is much higher, which is why ROIC prints 51.7%. Any DCF or PE-based fair value that doesn't reconcile this is suspect, including the synthesis's $90.10 anchor.

That said, the underlying business trajectory is unambiguously strong: annual revenue $2.94B → $4.19B → $7.79B → $9.32B → $10.22B is a 36% CAGR since 2021, and the most recent quarterly cadence ($474M → $507M → $558M → $592M → $578M → $603M → $667M → $699M) shows re-acceleration into the March 2026 print, not deceleration as the "Revenue Confidence" tag claims. Recent YoY is 47% on the latest quarter ($699M vs $474M), not 9.7%. Account growth and margin lending balances are the real drivers here, and neither has rolled over despite the rate-cut narrative. The 40.6x reported PE is misleading for the same minority-interest reason; look-through PE on the consolidated economics is closer to mid-20s, which for a business compounding accounts at ~30% and NII-sensitive but with structural share gains is not demanding.

The contrarian case is real but narrower than the bear story suggests. It's not "zero-commission brokers eat IBKR" — that battle was fought and IBKR won the professional/international/margin-heavy segment decisively. The genuine risk is rate normalization: a material share of segment income is net interest on $100B+ of customer credit balances, and 200bps of Fed cuts would compress that meaningfully even with margin loan growth offsetting. The second risk is that Peterffy is 81 and the founder-stewardship premium is real but finite. Third, at 3.9x sales and ~3.4x EV/revenue for what is fundamentally a rate-sensitive financial, you're paying a tech multiple for a business whose 2026-2027 EPS could be flat-to-down if the curve cooperates for borrowers rather than IBKR.

Where I land: the synthesis's "fair value" call at $90 is directionally right but arrived at through flawed arithmetic — the composite happens to land near spot because the errors partially cancel. Market Forces calling this "fairly valued given rate headwinds" is the most honest read. The narrative layer correctly identifies this as anchored/quiet-quality with minimal story premium, which is exactly right — IBKR trades on numbers, not vibes. I dissent modestly from strict fair value because the Q1 2026 revenue acceleration ($699M, +18% YoY versus the +9% trailing tag the models are using) suggests the deceleration thesis is stale by one quarter, and account growth continues to compound. But I won't call it undervalued at 40x headline / ~mid-20s look-through with a known NII headwind coming. Fair-to-slightly-cheap, with the upside case requiring either (a) rates staying higher-for-longer through 2026 or (b) continued 25%+ account growth offsetting NIM compression. A pullback to the low $80s would be a clearer buy; chasing at $88.63 requires believing the Q1 re-acceleration is the new run rate.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-06 00:29:49
Verdict Undervalued at $88.63 — the reported P/E is the wrong lens for this data set; if operating earnings and cash generation are even directionally right, fair value is comfortably above $100.

What jumps out immediately is that the headline valuation debate is being distorted by accounting presentation. The quarterly table shows revenue of just $699 million in the latest quarter against net income of $1.17 billion, implying a nonsensical 167.5% margin; the annual table then shows $10.22 billion of revenue in 2025 but only $984 million of net income, a 9.6% net margin. Those cannot both describe the same economic reality in a clean apples-to-apples way. For a broker, especially one with large interest flows and client-related balances, line-item classifications matter enormously; here, the most useful clues are the annual operating income of $8.79 billion on $10.22 billion revenue and operating cash flow of $15.81 billion. That says IBKR is an unusually cash-generative, capital-light franchise with very little balance-sheet leverage, not a normal 40x-earnings slow grower. I would not lean on the reported P/E of 40.6 as the core valuation anchor when the surrounding statements are internally inconsistent.

The real story in the data is a company still compounding at a healthy rate while retaining extraordinary economics. Annual revenue has grown from $2.94 billion in 2021 to $10.22 billion in 2025, a 36%+ four-year CAGR, while operating income rose from $2.02 billion to $8.79 billion. Even if some of that expansion was helped by higher rates, the slope is too steep to dismiss as purely cyclical. The quarterly revenue progression from $474 million in mid-2024 to $699 million in the latest quarter is about 47% growth over seven quarters, and latest quarter revenue is up roughly 18% year over year versus $592 million in 2025-03-31. Meanwhile, book equity is $20.47 billion and the stock trades at only 1.95x book with no debt and $4.96 billion of cash. For a broker/custodian platform with gross margin near 90% and operating margin near 86%, that multiple is not demanding if the franchise can keep taking share and monetizing client cash balances. The “mature earner” label undersells the operating momentum.

That is why I think the “fair value around $90” conclusion is too complacent. On the supplied numbers, EV/revenue of 3.4x and EV/EBITDA of 3.8x are low for a business that has compounded revenue in the mid-teens at minimum, earnings faster than that, and carries a pristine balance sheet. If you treat the annual net income figure as the primary truth, then yes, 40x earnings looks rich; but if you instead believe the operating profit, cash flow, and quarterly earnings run-rate are closer to economic earnings power, then the stock at $88.63 looks more like a high-quality compounder being screened incorrectly than a fully valued broker. I come out moderately bullish: the market is probably right that lower rates will pressure net interest income, but the valuation already reflects far more normalization anxiety than the rest of the income statement justifies.

The best case against that view is obvious and serious: IBKR may simply be near peak earnings quality because rates have been doing a lot of the work, and the data set may be flattering the business through brokerage-specific accounting quirks. The recent revenue trend is decelerating on the provided signal set, recent annual revenue growth from 2024 to 2025 was only 9.7%, and if normalized earnings really are around the reported $984 million annual number, then a $150.34 billion market cap is wildly expensive. A smart bear would also point to the tiny dividend yield, low reported ROE of 4.8%, and the business mix risk that active trading, margin lending, and client cash sweeps all soften together when rates fall and retail activity cools. On that read, the low EV multiples are a trap created by financial-company statement structure, and the market is not cheap at all — it is paying up for a niche broker whose best cyclical conditions may be behind it.

I weigh those objections differently because the internal consistency of the stronger figures matters more than the surface multiples. A company with no debt, nearly $5 billion cash, $15.8 billion operating cash flow, and operating income of $8.8 billion is not economically weak, even if reported net income appears oddly low. What would change my mind is straightforward: if over the next two to three quarters revenue slips back toward the $550-$600 million range while quarterly net income falls below roughly $900 million and annual operating cash flow stops tracking well above net income, I would assume the apparent earnings power is indeed overstated and that fair value is below today’s price. Conversely, if revenue sustains above $700 million quarterly and annual revenue pushes past $11 billion even as rates ease, then the market is still underestimating how much of this growth is share gain rather than rate windfall.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-06 00:30:51
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly rich at $88.63; 40x earnings already capitalizes the moat and leaves no margin for NII normalization

The quarterly figures expose the real engine and the real risk at once. What the tape labels as “revenue” in the $474–699M range is clearly the commission-and-fee spine, compounding at a healthy clip (up roughly 18% from the year-ago quarter and still accelerating in absolute dollars through 2026-Q1). That is the durable franchise: low-cost global execution, sticky professional and advisor balances, and operating leverage that has driven operating margins above 85%. Yet reported annual net income attributable to the public company sits at only $984M on $10.22B of total revenue, a 9.6% net margin that looks anemic beside the 86% operating margin precisely because of the well-known Up-C/NCI structure. The market is therefore paying a 40.6x multiple on the thin equity slice while the economic earnings power of the operating partnership is several times larger. That multiple is the entire debate.

The growth arithmetic that got IBKR here is not repeatable. Revenue climbed from $2.94B in 2021 to $10.22B in 2025 largely on the back of the rate cycle; the step-function jumps in 2022–2023 are net-interest income, not commission share gains. Recent revenue growth has already decelerated to 9.7% year-over-year while the pre-flight note correctly flags macro headwinds. A 14.6% revenue CAGR and 28% earnings CAGR look impressive in the rear-view mirror; they embed a once-in-a-decade interest-rate tailwind that is now rolling over. Meanwhile ROE prints at a dismal 4.8% and ROA at 48 bp—structural artifacts of the public float, yes, but still the returns the equity holder actually owns. Paying nearly 2x book and 40x earnings for mid-single-digit ROE with a decelerating top line is not a bargain simply because EV/EBITDA screens at 3.8x; brokerage EV metrics are distorted by customer cash and have misled more than one model.

The valuation synthesis that parks fair value at $90–91 and calls the stock “below its no-growth floor” is internally at war with itself. It simultaneously claims growth is free and that the market has already priced more growth than the fundamentals can deliver. I side with the second statement. At $88.63 the shares sit essentially on top of the composite fair-value estimate, yet that estimate appears to extrapolate elevated net interest margins and continued mid-teens volume growth without a meaningful discount-rate or terminal-margin haircut. Operating cash flow of $15.8B is impressive until one remembers it is dominated by customer-credit-balance swings, not free cash available to equity. With debt at zero and $5B of cash the balance sheet is fortress-like, but fortress balance sheets do not justify 40x earnings when the earnings themselves are rate-cyclical.

The strongest contrary case is straightforward and quantitative: commission revenue is still rising, client accounts and customer equity have historically compounded through rate cycles, the technology and clearing moat is real, and a higher-for-longer rate path would keep NII elevated far longer than the bear case assumes. Earnings are up 30% year-over-year even as headline revenue growth slows, proving the operating leverage remains intact. A smart bull will also note that the 25%-ish public ownership means any buybacks or continued up-C exchanges accrete directly to the listed shares, and that the “quiet-quality” narrative has kept multiple compression modest so far. I weigh this evidence seriously; it keeps me from a high-conviction short. I simply do not believe it supports a 40x exit multiple once the Fed’s terminal rate is fully digested and the easy NII comparisons vanish.

I would reverse to constructive on a clean break of commission revenue back above 15% year-over-year sustained for two quarters, evidence that net interest income has stabilized within 10% of the 2025 peak despite lower fed-funds, or a multiple compression to the high-20s on trailing earnings that resets the starting point. Conversely, two consecutive quarters of sequential decline in net interest income coupled with DARTs or account growth falling into the mid-single digits would confirm the earnings power is more cyclical than the current multiple admits and would push fair value into the $70s.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 6.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.0 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-06 01:01:17
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Fortress-quality broker (+86) trading right on top of fair value (-29), with a modest sentiment tailwind (+30) - own it, but don't chase it here.
The cruxHow much of the 86% operating margin and record FCF is structural scale versus cyclically-inflated net interest income - that single question decides whether $88.74 is fair or already rich.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from IBKR's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityGood Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+86
Fortress
edge √Σ 171 · risk √Σ 43 · conf 8/10

IBKR is a mature earner running at extraordinary operating intensity: revenue climbed from $2.94B (2021) to $10.22B (2025), a ~36% CAGR, while operating margin expanded from 68.6% to 86.0% and gross margin reached 89.8%. Net income more than tripled to $984M and FCF hit $15.81B in 2025 (OCF/NI ~13x reflects the broker-dealer balance sheet dynamics, not accrual manipulation). Accruals at -4.8% of assets and $4.96B of liquid cash with zero net debt underline that reported earnings are cash-backed and the franchise is entirely self-funding. Capital discipline is a standout: diluted share count is trending down (-1.7% CAGR) with SBC at just 1.2% of revenue, so per-share value is being concentrated rather than diluted, unusual for a fast-growing financial. The Altman Z of 0.71 is a false positive - the model is calibrated for industrial firms and mis-reads broker-dealers whose balance sheets are dominated by customer assets/liabilities. What is not visible in the data: interest-rate sensitivity of net interest income (a large driver of the 2023-2025 margin surge), regulatory capital detail, and any customer/counterparty concentration. Barring those unknowns, this reads as one of the more durable, high-integrity operators in capital markets.

Strengths 5
m88
Elite and expanding margins
Operating margin rose from 68.6% (2021) to 86.0% (2025) on 3.5x revenue growth - operating leverage of a scale platform, not a cyclical trader.
m82
Per-share value concentrating
Diluted shares fell at -1.7% CAGR while SBC is only 1.2% of revenue; the company is a net buyer of its own stock, rare for a growth-mode financial.
m80
Self-funding with fortress liquidity
$4.96B liquid cash, zero net debt, $15.81B FCF in 2025 - no reliance on capital markets to fund growth.
m70
Clean earnings quality
Accruals -4.8% of assets and deeply cash-backed earnings (OCF/NI 12.96x reflects broker-dealer flows); no signs of aggressive accounting.
m60
Sustained revenue compounding
Revenue $2.94B to $10.22B in four years with margin expansion at every step - both price/mix and scale are working.
Concerns 3
m35
Rate-cycle sensitivity likely embedded
The 2023-2025 margin and FCF surge coincides with the high-rate regime; a meaningful portion of net interest income could compress if short rates fall materially. Not visible in the provided data.
m20
Altman Z 0.71 flag is misleading here
The distress reading is a model artifact for broker-dealers whose assets are dominated by customer balances; not a real solvency signal but worth noting the model does not apply.
m15
Share count ticked up 2023-2025
Diluted shares moved from 405.3M (2022) to 443.2M (2025) despite the reported -1.7% CAGR - worth verifying the structure of the up-C/public float and whether SLP/founder units are converting.
This is one of the highest-quality capital markets businesses I can recall reading forensically. Revenue tripled, margins pushed to 86%, share count is being taken down, and there is $4.96B of cash with no debt - the operator is compounding both the top line and per-share economics simultaneously. The only real caveat I cannot resolve from the derived data is how much of the recent margin surge is structural scale vs. the tailwind of high short rates on customer cash; that is a genuine risk to the trajectory, not to the franchise. I would call this Fortress with the honest asterisk that a rate cycle could compress the flattering slope.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Share of revenue and pretax income from net interest income vs. commissions/other, and rate sensitivity disclosures
  • Structure of the up-C: public float vs. Member interests and any ongoing conversion that would raise reported share count
  • Customer/segment concentration - proportion of introducing-broker vs. professional vs. retail balances
  • Regulatory capital cushion at IBLLC and non-US subsidiaries
  • Detail behind the 2025 FCF of $15.81B - how much is operating vs. changes in customer-related working capital
Valuation / Mispricing
-29
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 47 · risk √Σ 77 · conf 8/10
Price $88.74 vs deserved ~$90 - roughly 1-3% margin, essentially no edge either way. attractive below $75.00

The e2e composite fair value of $90.10 and signal-adjusted $90.91 sit within 3% of the $88.74 price - that is the textbook definition of fairly valued. The EPV floor of $146.20 looks like a runaway output driven by capitalizing a rate-cycle-peak earnings stream at a low discount rate; I would not lean on it as a margin-of-safety anchor when a big chunk of NIM is cyclically inflated. The anchored-PE of $34 is the other extreme, penalizing a genuinely superior franchise. The composite splitting the difference and landing right at the tape is the honest read.

Cheap signals 2
m40
Fortress quality supports the print
86% operating margins, $4.96B net cash, shrinking share count, and elite compounding justify a premium multiple - the $90 composite is not a stretch for this quality tier.
m25
EPV floor $146 (use with caution)
Capitalized earning power suggests significant upside, but this method looks inflated by peak-cycle net interest economics; treat as an outer bound, not a target.
Rich / priced-in 3
m55
Priced for continued NIM tailwind
Margin financing income and interest on customer cash are near-cycle-high; the current multiple bakes in this earnings level persisting, leaving little cushion if the Fed cuts.
m45
Anchored-PE says $34
One of the three fair-value methods pegs deserved value at $34 - a stark reminder that on a normalized-multiple basis the stock is materially above historical anchors.
m30
Narrative already priced in
The quiet-quality bull case (moat, geographic reach, tech edge) is well understood by the market at 3% upside - no informational edge remaining.
This is a great business at a fair price - and fair is not good enough. The composite fair value sits within a rounding error of the tape, and I do not trust the EPV floor because a chunk of current earnings is rate-cycle sugar that gets capitalized as if permanent. I would want IBKR closer to $75 - a 15%+ discount to composite FV - before the risk/reward tilts my way, especially given rate-cut exposure. Owning it here is fine; buying it here is not an edge.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Segment split of net interest income vs commissions to gauge rate sensitivity
  • Guidance on account growth and margin loan balances into a cutting cycle
  • Any one-time gains inflating the 86% margin print
  • Buyback pace and share count trajectory
General Sentiment
+30
Tailwind
tail √Σ 94 · head √Σ 62 · conf 6/10

The pressure on IBKR right now is mildly positive and unusually clean. The tape is risk-on (VIX 15.8, S&P near highs) and with a 1.34 beta IBKR should benefit from the buoyant backdrop more than a typical financial - high-beta capital-markets names get bid in calm, upward tapes because trading volumes and margin balances feed directly off risk appetite. The narrative is 'quiet-quality' at minimal intensity and durable: there is no cult premium to unwind, no fragile story to crack. That means sentiment is neither a big tailwind nor a big headwind on its own; it just quietly compounds with the tape. Analyst tone is a real, identifiable tailwind: Wall Street is broadly bullish (ABR buy skew), one prominent fair-value model just lifted from $88.27 to $106.97 on strong earnings, and coverage frames the recent 8.6% monthly pullback as a buying opportunity - classic supportive drumbeat. Newsflow is incrementally positive (Brazil futures expansion, AI/MCP integration) - the kind of quiet product-drip stories that reinforce the 'best-in-class execution engine' framing without inflating it. Offsetting: rates at 4.63% and a headline arguing IBKR could be 43% above fair value are genuine headwinds for a name whose margin-financing income is rate-sensitive, and the recent 8.6% monthly drawdown shows the tape can still punish it. Net: a modest tailwind - supportive tape, supportive Street, no narrative fragility, but no mania to ride either.

Tailwinds 4
m55
Risk-on tape amplified by 1.34 beta
Calm, upward tape directly helps a high-beta broker whose earnings scale with trading activity and margin balances. IBKR is more exposed to this regime than most financials.
m60
Bullish analyst drumbeat and target revisions
ABR skews buy, fair-value model raised from $88.27 to $106.97, and multiple pieces frame the recent dip as an opportunity. Persistent supportive Street tone is a real press on the tape.
m35
Quiet product/news flow reinforces quality story
Brazil B3 futures launch and AI/MCP integration are incremental positives that reinforce the 'execution engine' narrative without hype - low intensity but directionally supportive.
m30
Durable narrative, no story risk
Quiet-quality archetype with minimal cult means there is no fragile premium to collapse; sentiment cannot crater on a narrative crack because there is no narrative to crack.
Headwinds 3
m45
Rate-cut narrative pressures margin income
10y at 4.63% but the bear frame around rate-sensitive margin financing is a lingering overhang; any dovish shift gets read as pressure on IBKR's net interest income.
m35
'43% above fair value' framing circulating
At least one prominent piece flags IBKR as materially overvalued, and the stock just took an 8.6% monthly hit. That valuation drumbeat caps upside sentiment even as other analysts lean bullish.
m25
Recent drawdown signals fragile positioning
The 8.6% monthly slide despite the risk-on tape suggests some positioning fatigue in the name - crowded long money may still be trimming.
Net tailwind, but a modest one. The tape is friendly to a high-beta broker, the Street is quietly cheering, and there is no narrative fragility because there is no narrative excess. The offsets - rate sensitivity fears and a nascent 'overvalued' drumbeat after an 8.6% monthly drop - are real but not dominant. This is the kind of name where sentiment neither saves you nor sinks you; it just leans slightly with you as long as the tape stays calm. If VIX pops or the Fed turns dovish fast, the read flips to balanced quickly.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether the fair-value upgrade to $106.97 gets echoed by other sell-side shops or stays a one-off
  • Direction of front-end rates - a decisive dovish pivot would flip the margin-financing narrative to a headwind
  • July/August brokerage metrics prints - deteriorating DARTs or margin balances would crack the quiet-quality frame
  • Whether the 'overvalued' framing gains traction and starts driving downgrade headlines
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Higher +7.4% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 6, 2026, IBKR was $88.74. We expect it to be $95.30 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $75.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 6, 2026.

Price when predicted$88.74
Our estimate for Feb 2027$95.30+7.4%
Great value below$75.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06