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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Jabil Inc. (JBL) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -35 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 27 · Value -76 · Sentiment 30 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $159.07 vs $310.91 at analysis
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Jabil Inc.
JBL NYSEJabil Inc. is a global manufacturing services and engineering company that helps customers design, build, and support complex products across multiple industries. Jabil Inc. provides electronics manufacturing, product design, supply chain management, testing, fulfillment, and aftermarket services for sectors such as intelligent infrastructure, regulated industries, healthcare, automotive, packaging, cloud and data-center equipment, networking, and consumer devices. The company works with original equipment manufacturers and other brands that need scalable production, quality control, and integrated product lifecycle support. Its operations combine engineering expertise with large-scale manufacturing capabilities and a worldwide site network, making Jabil Inc. an important partner in outsourced manufacturing and industrial supply chains.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.92
Total Equity: $1.52B
Shares: 110,900,000
Total Debt: $3.05B
Cash: $1.93B
EBITDA: $1.86B
Total Debt: $3.05B
Cash: $1.93B
Revenue: $29.80B
Revenue: $29.80B
Revenue: $29.80B
Total Equity: $1.52B
Tax Rate: 26.3%
Equity: $1.52B
Total Debt: $3.05B
Cash: $1.93B
Current Liabilities: $13.71B
Long-Term Debt: $2.55B
Total Debt: $3.05B
Total Equity: $1.52B
Shares: 110,900,000
Shares: 110,900,000
CapEx: -$468.00M
Shares: 110,900,000
Stock Price: $310.91
Net Income: $657.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 1:21am (41d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.3B | $33.5B | $34.7B | $28.9B | $29.8B |
| Cost of Revenue | $26.9B | $30.8B | $31.8B | $26.2B | $27.2B |
| Gross Profit | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $2.7B | $2.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $663.0M | $1.5B |
| Operating Income | $1.1B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $2.0B | $1.2B |
| Net Income | $696.0M | $996.0M | $818.0M | $1.4B | $657.0M |
| EBITDA | $1.9B | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.7B | $1.9B |
| EPS | $4.69 | $7.06 | $6.15 | $11.34 | $6.00 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.58 | $6.90 | $6.02 | $11.17 | $5.92 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 12:30am (41d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.2B | $1.9B |
| Total Current Assets | $10.9B | $13.9B | $14.7B | $12.8B | $13.7B |
| Total Assets | $16.7B | $19.7B | $19.4B | $17.4B | $18.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $10.7B | $13.7B | $12.7B | $11.8B | $13.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | $3.1B | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.1B | $2.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $14.5B | $17.3B | $16.6B | $15.6B | $17.0B |
| Total Equity | $2.1B | $2.5B | $2.9B | $1.7B | $1.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $2.7B | $3.6B | $4.4B | $5.8B | $6.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 1:21am (41d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.2B | -$1.4B | -$1.0B | -$784.0M | -$468.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $274.0M | $266.0M | $704.0M | $932.0M | $1.2B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$50.0M | -$18.0M | -$29.0M | -$90.0M | -$392.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$50.0M | -$48.0M | -$45.0M | -$42.0M | -$36.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$428.0M | -$696.0M | -$487.0M | -$2.5B | -$1.0B |
| Net Change in Cash | $173.0M | -$89.0M | $326.0M | $397.0M | -$268.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 1:21am (41d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +14.3% | +3.7% | -16.8% | +3.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +11.6% | +8.9% | -6.7% | -1.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | +32.0% | +10.3% | +31.0% | -41.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +43.1% | -17.9% | +69.7% | -52.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +20.0% | +6.2% | +10.1% | -31.5% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 27, 2026 12:30am (41d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-17 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-18 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-12 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-12 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-13 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-14 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-12 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yetNarrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-27 01:29The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw quarterly trajectory tells a more constructive story than the annual CAGRs suggest. Revenue has climbed from $6.96B (Aug-24) to $8.75B (May-26) — that's ~26% growth over seven quarters, with the most recent print up 11.7% YoY. Net income margin has expanded from 2.0% to 3.1% over the same window, and the last four quarters aggregate to ~$862M in NI vs the trailing $657M annual figure — earnings are inflecting, not decaying. The "revenue_cagr: -7.3%" and "earnings_cagr: -10.4%" figures in the momentum block are artifacts of the FY23 peak ($34.7B, boosted by Apple/mobility volumes that Jabil subsequently divested) rolling off — they meaningfully misrepresent the current run-rate. Annualizing recent quarters gets you to ~$34B revenue and ~$1.0-1.1B NI, which recasts the P/E from 52x trailing to roughly 30x forward.
That said, 30x forward for an EMS business is still rich. Flex trades in the mid-teens; Celestica has re-rated to ~25x on the same AI-datacenter narrative. Jabil's ROIC of 33% and ROE of 43% are flattered by $3B of debt against only $1.5B of equity (D/E of 2.0x) and heavy buybacks — this is financial engineering as much as operating excellence. Gross margin at 8.9% is structurally where EMS lives; the 3.1% net margin is a cycle-high, not a new plateau. The synthesis DCF at $143 likely under-weights the AI-adjacent silicon photonics, liquid cooling, and networking exposure that's driving the current mix-shift, but the narrative engine is right that 117% premium to DCF is doing a lot of storytelling work. My honest fair value sits somewhere between the two extremes — probably $180-220, implying JBL is 30-40% overvalued rather than 54%.
Where I'd push back on the prior models: the classification as "mature_earner" is wrong-headed given the top-line re-acceleration and mix shift; this is a cyclical-in-transition, not a mature earner. The thesis evaluator's claim that the market prices "45% FCF growth" is technically true against the depressed FY25 base but misleading — FCF grew from $970M-ish to $1.17B and is tracking higher into FY26; the required growth to justify $311 is closer to 15-20% for five years, which is aggressive but not fantastical if AI capex holds. The insider signal labeled "net insider buying" is deceptive — I count one 500-share purchase against seven sales on 2026-07-15; this is routine distribution, not accumulation. A contrarian bull would note that Jabil has already proven it can walk away from low-margin business (the mobility divestiture) and that the customer list in AI infrastructure (implied Nvidia/hyperscaler exposure) creates real switching costs on the engineering side — this isn't 2015 Foxconn-lite anymore.
The critical unknowns: (1) how much of the recent margin expansion is AI-server ASP mix vs. temporary supply-chain arbitrage, and (2) whether hyperscaler capex normalizes in 2026-27. If AI server revenue is $6-8B annualized at double the corporate margin, the bull case rhymes. If it's $3-4B and margin normalizes to 2.5%, the stock is a $180 stock. I dissent partially from the synthesis $143 fair value — that number treats a company mid-transformation as a static commodity, and the quarterly data doesn't support it. But I agree with the direction: at 30x forward earnings on a business that has historically traded at 12-15x, JBL requires everything to go right. The risk-reward from $311 is asymmetric to the downside; you're paying peak-cycle multiple on peak-cycle margins with a moderate-durability narrative. Buyers at $220 get paid; buyers at $311 are underwriting flawless execution.
GPT Reading
At $310.91, Jabil is being valued like a transformed compounder when the income statement still looks like an EMS operator with thin margins and erratic earnings. The rawest mismatch is simple: on the latest annual numbers, revenue was $29.8B, operating income $1.18B, net income $657M, and free cash flow $1.17B. That is a 4.0% operating margin, 2.2% net margin, and 3.9% FCF margin. Those are respectable for a manufacturer, but nowhere near the kind of economics that usually support a $32.6B market cap, 52.5x trailing P/E, 18.9x EV/EBITDA, and 1.16x sales for a business with little evidence of durable pricing power. The market is plainly capitalizing not current earnings but a belief that 2024’s profit level — $1.39B of net income on $28.9B revenue — was not a one-off. The problem is that 2025 immediately disproved that, with net income falling 53% year over year despite revenue rising 3%.
The quarterly progression does show a business that improved through fiscal 2026, but not nearly enough to justify the current multiple. Revenue has recovered from $6.96B and $6.99B in the back half of 2024 to $8.28B and $8.75B in the first two reported quarters of 2026. Net income also improved from $100M-$138M levels in late 2024 to $223M and $275M most recently. That is real momentum, and the latest quarter’s 3.1% net margin is the best in the set. But even annualizing the most recent quarter only gets you to roughly $1.1B of earnings power, which still leaves the stock at about 29x earnings for a low-margin contract manufacturer. And that is on a generous run-rate basis using the best quarter. If I instead anchor on the last four reported quarters, net income totals only about $809M, still far below what the current price seems to require. The story the numbers tell is recovery, not reinvention.
The balance sheet and returns add another reason to be skeptical of headline quality. Reported ROE of 43.3% and price/book of 22.7x look dramatic, but equity is only $1.52B against $3.05B of debt and $1.93B of cash; this is a heavily buyback-shaped capital structure, so book-based ratios flatter economic performance. The healthier metric here is cash generation: $1.64B of operating cash flow and $1.17B of free cash flow on $468M of capex is good, and net debt of about $1.1B is manageable. But even that support has limits: the stock trades around 28x trailing FCF. For a company whose annual revenue has gone from $34.7B in 2023 down to $29.8B in 2025, and whose gross margin actually slipped from $9.7B? No — from 8.3% in 2023 to 8.9% in 2025, there is some resilience, but not a step-function change. What looks special operationally is really better mix and disciplined execution inside a structurally low-margin business.
The best case against my skepticism is that the market is correctly looking through a temporary earnings trough and paying for a meaningfully better Jabil. There is evidence for that. Quarterly revenue has reaccelerated sharply: $6.73B in February 2025 to $8.75B in May 2026 is a 30% jump in five quarters, and net margin has expanded from 1.7% to 3.1% over the same span. If those gains reflect a durable mix shift toward data center infrastructure, healthcare, automotive, and other stickier verticals, then trailing annual earnings massively understate forward power. On that view, 2025’s $657M net income is the anomaly, not the base, and 2024’s $1.39B may even be conservative. Strong FCF conversion also matters: when a manufacturer can turn modest accounting margins into $1B+ of annual free cash flow, valuation should not be judged on P/E alone. I still weigh those positives less heavily because the historical record shows revenue volatility, earnings whiplash, and no sustained evidence yet that 3%+ net margins are the new floor rather than the top of the cycle.
What would change my mind is straightforward: I would need to see the recent improvement persist long enough to prove that the business has actually crossed into a higher-earnings regime. Specifically, if Jabil can hold quarterly revenue above $8.5B for several quarters while keeping net margin at or above 3%, that points to at least $1.0B-$1.1B of annual earnings as a baseline, not a peak. More important, if the next annual results show operating income back near or above $1.8B with free cash flow sustained over $1.3B, then today’s premium would look more defensible. Short of that, a stock at $311 is pricing in a transformation that the reported data has only begun to hint at. My bias is that this is a very good operator in an undistinguished business, and the market is paying too much for the hope that those are the same thing.
Grok Reading
Jabil’s numbers describe a low-margin contract manufacturer that has already given back a large piece of its prior peak and is now being priced as if that peak—or something better—is permanent. Fiscal 2025 revenue of $29.8B is only modestly above 2024’s $28.9B and still ~14% below the $34.7B printed in 2023; net income collapsed from $1.39B to $657M, cutting the net margin to 2.2% and operating margin to roughly 4%. The last six quarters show sequential revenue stabilization and a rebound into the mid-$8B range, with the May 2026 quarter at $8.75B and a 3.1% net margin, but that is still commodity EMS economics. Free cash flow of $1.17B on a $32.6B enterprise is real and the FCF CAGR looks healthy, yet it buys you only a mid-single-digit FCF yield at $311. Balance-sheet optics are worse than the ROE figure suggests: $3.05B of debt against $1.52B of equity produces a 2.0x debt-to-equity ratio and a current ratio of essentially 1.0, so the 43% ROE is mostly thin equity, not superior returns on capital. At 52× trailing earnings, 23× book, and nearly 19× EV/EBITDA, the market is paying a software-like multiple for 9% gross margins and mid-single-digit operating leverage.
The contradiction with the quantitative models is therefore not subtle. Composite fair value near $143–146 implies the stock is roughly double what steady-state cash generation and historical EMS multiples support. Revenue CAGR over the multi-year window is negative, earnings CAGR is more negative, and recent earnings year-over-year is still deeply negative even as the top line has stopped falling. Nothing in the reported P&L yet demonstrates the structural mix shift into high-stickiness, high-margin verticals that would justify a permanent re-rating; the margin recovery from the 1.4–1.7% trough is simply a return toward the company’s long-run 2–3% net band, not a breakout.
The strongest opposing case is straightforward and must be taken seriously: trailing twelve-month run-rate revenue is now annualizing above $33B if the latest $8.75B quarter holds, free-cash-flow conversion remains excellent, and the AI/data-center, healthcare, and nearshoring narratives could produce both volume and modest mix improvement that the 2025 income statement has not yet captured. If Jabil is becoming a quasi-duopoly engineering partner rather than a pure price-taker, a mid-20s earnings multiple on a restored $1.2–1.4B net-income base could be defensible and would put fair value closer to the current quote. Insider activity is at least not a red flag (small net purchases appear), and FCF quality is flagged as strong. I weigh this less heavily because EMS switching costs and customer concentration have historically capped pricing power; the same OEMs driving AI capex retain enormous bargaining leverage, and the 2024–25 earnings collapse already showed how quickly “strategic” revenue can disappear when a large program ends. The narrative is credible as a growth overlay, not as a moat that permanently doubles the multiple.
What would flip the view is concrete evidence that operating margin can sustainably clear 6–7% (or net margin 4%+) on the higher revenue base, or a clear multi-quarter demonstration that AI/infrastructure work is both material and higher-margin enough to lift ROIC without a matching spike in capex intensity. A return to $1.3B+ annual net income while holding the current revenue run-rate, or FCF sustaining above $1.5B with declining leverage, would force a reassessment of the $140–160 fundamental anchor. Until then the gap between $311 and cash-flow reality is too wide.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Jabil runs a large-scale contract manufacturing business (FY25 revenue $29.8B) that is structurally low-margin (gross margin 8-9%, operating margin 4-7%) but converts well to cash: FY25 FCF of $1.17B against $657M net income gives an OCF/NI of 1.91x and accruals of -3.9% of assets, both signs of clean earnings. Altman Z of 3.45 sits in the safe zone. Revenue is roughly flat over five years ($29.3B to $29.8B) with a meaningful 2024 dip, indicating a cyclical, customer-mix-sensitive business rather than a secular grower. Capital allocation is the standout positive: diluted shares fell from 152.1M to 110.9M (-7.6% CAGR, ~27% cumulative), materially concentrating per-share value. The balance sheet is the main constraint: $1.93B liquid cash but net debt of ~$1.12B, so the buyback is being funded partly with leverage rather than a cash pile. Operating margin volatility (7.0% in FY24 collapsing to 4.0% in FY25 while revenue rose) points to pricing/mix pressure or one-time items worth understanding. Insider tape is small and mixed - one open-market purchase of ~$150K by Tyagarajan against a scattering of small sales - not a strong signal either way.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Cause of FY25 operating margin decline (mix, restructuring charges, customer loss, or divestiture impact - Mobility segment sale was in FY24).
- Customer concentration - historically Apple has been a very large customer; check top-customer % of revenue in 10-K.
- Debt maturity ladder and fixed vs floating mix given net debt position.
- Whether buybacks are being funded with FCF only or with incremental debt issuance.
- Segment detail on Intelligent Infrastructure (AI/cloud) vs Regulated Industries vs Connected Living growth rates.
- Any convertible or off-balance-sheet financing (supplier finance programs common in EMS).
The composite FV sits at $146.16 and the signal-adjusted FV at $143.35, implying about -54% downside from $310.91. DCF ($104) and EPV floor ($78) both say this is a thin-margin EMS business worth well under half the current quote; only the anchored-PE method ($298) gets anywhere near price, and that method just extrapolates the current multiple - it is a mirror, not an anchor. Company quality is Solid (27) with clean earnings, which lifts deserved value modestly above pure DCF/EPV, but not to $311. A fair skeptical deserved value lands somewhere in the $150-200 range once you give credit for buyback discipline and FCF durability, still leaving the stock 35-50% rich. What is priced in: sustained AI/regulated-vertical mix shift lifting margins structurally, continued aggressive buybacks compounding EPS, and no cyclical air-pocket in consumer/EV. That is a lot to underwrite for a business with 8-9% gross margins, customer concentration, and a recent FY24-to-FY25 operating margin round-trip. The bear case (cyclical, low-moat, story-driven multiple expansion) matches the numbers better than the bull.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Segment margin trajectory in healthcare, automotive, and AI/cloud infrastructure - is mix shift actually lifting blended operating margin?
- Customer concentration disclosure and any signs of major-customer insourcing or price pressure
- Forward FCF guidance vs the pace of buybacks - is management still buying at these prices?
- Any one-time gains or restructuring items flattering FY25 EPS
JBL is riding an active platform-monopoly / AI-capex narrative with strong intensity, and the recent news flow reinforces it: multiple 'undervalued on DCF' pieces are hitting the wires within 72 hours, which is exactly the kind of coverage that keeps momentum buyers engaged even after a 2.7% down day. The story that Jabil is a mission-critical AI infrastructure partner has clearly re-rated the name well above fundamental anchors, and the tape has not yet challenged it. That is a tailwind on the sentiment axis regardless of what valuation says. The macro tape is mildly risk-on (+30) but fragile - VIX 15, S&P off its highs, regime only 2 days old - and with beta 1.3 JBL is more exposed than average to any risk-off flip. Rates at 4.64% and market PE 25.7 are a background headwind for high-multiple AI-levered names, but so far the narrative is absorbing that pressure. Analyst/news tone leans constructive (undervalued framing, in-line with market over 6 months), and there is no visible crack in the story yet. Durability is only 'moderate' and cult is low, so this is a tailwind that could fade quickly if AI-capex sentiment rolls over or a customer-concentration headline lands - but right now the pressure is up.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any hyperscaler capex commentary that could crack the AI-EMS narrative
- Whether VIX breaks back above 18 and the risk-on regime rolls over
- Customer concentration or guidance headlines from JBL or peers (Celestica, Flex, Sanmina)
- Sell-side target revisions - upward revisions would confirm the tailwind, downgrades would flip it
The world's marginal electronics dollar is moving from handsets and consumer devices to compute, power and thermal infrastructure. Jabil is on the right side of that reallocation by content, not by moat: it wins because it is already qualified, has US/Asia capacity and can absorb rack-scale integration complexity. That is a real, mechanism-backed tailwind, but it is a volume-and-content story on thin margins, not a pricing story. Simultaneously, reshoring and regulated-device outsourcing (drug delivery, defense electronics) expand its addressable base with stickier programs. Against that: the customer set is concentrated and increasingly sophisticated about vertical integration, so the durable question is whether Jabil keeps rising content per system as hyperscalers standardize designs.
When we made this prediction on Aug 27, 2026, JBL was $312.37. We expect it to be $278.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $180.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 27, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips up 10%
adjusted_pe
flips up 10%