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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -35 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 0 · Value -64 · Sentiment 49 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $69.17 vs $152.21 at analysis
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Johnson Controls International plc
JCI NYSEJohnson Controls International plc is a global building technology and industrial systems company that provides products and services for commercial, industrial, and institutional facilities. Johnson Controls International plc focuses on heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment, building automation and controls, fire detection and suppression, security systems, industrial refrigeration, and energy efficiency solutions. The company also supports integrated infrastructure and digital services that help customers manage comfort, safety, and operational performance across complex properties. Its offerings serve sectors such as data centers, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, advanced manufacturing, retail, and education, making Johnson Controls International plc an important provider of mission-critical building solutions in the global market.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.03
Total Equity: $12.95B
Shares: 654,100,000
Total Debt: $9.92B
Cash: $379.00M
EBITDA: $3.42B
Total Debt: $9.92B
Cash: $379.00M
Revenue: $23.60B
Revenue: $23.60B
Revenue: $23.60B
Total Equity: $12.95B
Tax Rate: 12.4%
Equity: $12.95B
Total Debt: $9.92B
Cash: $379.00M
Current Liabilities: $10.94B
Long-Term Debt: $9.20B
Total Debt: $9.92B
Total Equity: $12.95B
Shares: 654,100,000
Shares: 654,100,000
CapEx: -$434.00M
Shares: 654,100,000
Stock Price: $152.21
Net Income: $3.29B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 5:25am (16d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.7B | $25.3B | $26.8B | $23.0B | $23.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $15.6B | $17.0B | $17.8B | $14.9B | $15.0B |
| Gross Profit | $8.1B | $8.3B | $9.0B | $8.1B | $8.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $5.5B | $6.2B | $6.5B | $5.9B | $6.0B |
| Operating Income | $2.5B | $2.1B | $2.5B | $2.1B | $2.6B |
| Net Income | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $3.3B |
| EBITDA | $3.4B | $2.9B | $3.3B | $3.0B | $3.4B |
| EPS | $2.28 | $2.20 | $2.70 | $2.53 | $5.04 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.27 | $2.19 | $2.69 | $2.52 | $5.03 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:05am (16d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.3B | $2.0B | $835.0M | $606.0M | $379.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $10.0B | $11.7B | $10.7B | $11.2B | $10.2B |
| Total Assets | $41.9B | $42.2B | $42.2B | $42.7B | $37.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $9.1B | $11.2B | $11.1B | $12.0B | $10.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | $8.5B | $8.6B | $9.2B |
| Total Liabilities | $23.1B | $24.8B | $24.5B | $25.3B | $25.0B |
| Total Equity | $18.8B | $17.4B | $17.7B | $17.4B | $13.0B |
| Retained Earnings | $2.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $848.0M | $0 |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 5:25am (16d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.6B | — | — | — | — |
| Capital Expenditure | -$552.0M | -$592.0M | -$539.0M | -$494.0M | -$434.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B | — | — | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$725.0M | -$269.0M | -$726.0M | -$3.0M | -$10.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$507.0M | -$184.0M | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$762.0M | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$1.3B | -$1.4B | -$625.0M | -$1.2B | -$6.0B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$618.0M | $724.0M | -$1.1B | -$150.0M | -$369.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 5:25am (16d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +6.9% | +5.9% | -14.3% | +2.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +3.5% | +7.5% | -10.0% | +6.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | -16.7% | +17.5% | -13.0% | +18.9% |
| Net Income Growth | -6.4% | +20.7% | -7.8% | +93.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | -13.0% | +13.1% | -10.6% | +15.3% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:38am (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-16 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-23 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-24 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-23 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-25 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-24 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-22 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-15 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-22 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-16 | $0.37 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-17 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-16 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-23 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-17 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-18 | $0.35 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-17 | $0.34 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-24 | $0.27 | — | — | — |
| 2021-06-18 | $0.27 | — | — | — |
| 2021-03-19 | $0.27 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 09:00Even the bull case prices 68% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 72%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($152.21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +3% | 16.6% | $48.29 | -68% |
| Base — stabilizes | +2% | 14.5% | $41.47 | -73% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +1% | 12.3% | $35.05 | -77% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +3% | 14.5% | $42.19 | -72% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: JCI is doing $23.6B TTM revenue against $26.8B in FY2023 — that's not growth, that's a two-year revenue decline of roughly 12%, partially explained by the Residential HVAC divestiture but still a red flag when the stock trades at 4.2x sales and 30x earnings. Recent quarterly cadence ($5.43B → $5.68B → $6.05B → $6.44B → $5.80B → $6.14B) shows the March 2026 quarter at $6.14B vs $5.68B prior-year March — that's 8.1% YoY, better than the models' cited 2.8%. The Sept 2025 quarter's $1.69B net income (26.3% margin) is clearly a one-time gain (likely divestiture proceeds); strip it out and FY2025 net income is closer to $1.6B, making the "true" P/E closer to 55x, not 30x. That's a material issue the synthesis glossed over.
Margins are the real story and where I partially agree with the bull narrative: gross margin has walked from 32% (FY2022) to 36.4%, and operating margin bounced to 10.8%. In a business shedding its lowest-margin residential exposure and concentrating on commercial/data-center HVAC and controls, that mix shift is real, not narrative. But operating margin of 10.8% is not exceptional for building tech — Trane operates near 17%, Carrier at 14-15%. JCI is a laggard executing a catch-up, not a leader. The market is paying leader multiples (30x EV/EBITDA is absurd for a 10.8% operating margin industrial) for a follower's economics. Debt at $9.92B against $379M cash is a thin liquidity cushion (current ratio 0.93), and ROIC of 9.95% barely clears cost of capital — this is not a compounder disguised as an industrial.
Where I dissent from the prior models: the synthesis anchors fair value at $110 via DCF, and the narrative layer calls the 38% premium pure story. I think both understate the data-center tailwind, which is not narrative — it's showing up in HVAC order books industry-wide (Vertiv, Trane commentary corroborates). But I also think they're too generous on the earnings CAGR of 33.4%, which is arithmetic noise from a divestiture-boosted FY2025. Normalized earnings growth is probably 8-12%. The insider "F-InKind" transactions are tax withholdings on vesting, not directional signals — ignore them; the "No Insider Transactions" flag is correct in spirit. Where the models contradict each other: classification says mature_earner (0.63 confidence — weak), narrative says platform-monopoly, market forces says high-risk transformation. These can't all be right. My read: it's a mature industrial with a credible but incomplete mix-shift story, priced as if the transformation is done.
A careful contrarian would argue the following: (1) data center HVAC demand is a 5-10 year secular tailwind and JCI's OpenBlue/controls software genuinely creates switching costs on installed base worth 200-300bps of durable margin; (2) the FY2023 revenue was inflated by supply-chain catch-up, so the "decline" is optical; (3) at 1% dividend yield and buybacks, capital return is real. Fine — but even granting all three, you need ~15% EPS CAGR for five years to justify $152, and current normalized run-rate ($2.3B NI on $23.6B revenue) supports maybe $115-125 at a generous 25x forward on a 12% grower. The synthesis $110 fair value is close to my number; I'd put it at $118 accounting for data-center optionality. Current $152 embeds too much execution certainty in a business that just posted a decelerating quarterly trajectory (Dec 2025 rev fell sequentially from Sept, and while that's seasonal, YoY normalized growth is mid-single digits, not the double digits the multiple demands). Agree with overvalued; disagree that it's a screaming short — quality is real, valuation is the problem.
GPT Reading
At $152, JCI is being valued like a high-quality automation compounder, but the underlying numbers still look like a good industrial business rather than an exceptional one. The core operating picture has improved: annual revenue rose from $22.95B in FY24 to $23.60B in FY25, gross margin expanded from 35.2% to 36.4%, and operating income jumped from $2.15B to $2.56B, lifting operating margin from 9.4% to 10.8%. Recent quarters also show decent momentum, with March 2026 revenue up to $6.14B from $5.68B a year earlier and net income up to $613M from $478M. But the market cap is $92.2B against FY25 revenue of $23.6B, which is 4.2x sales for a building systems company, and the 30.3x P/E is being paid on earnings that are flattered by at least one obvious outlier quarter: September 2025 posted $1.69B of net income on $6.44B of revenue, a 26.3% net margin that is nowhere near the surrounding run rate of roughly 8%-12%. If I normalize that quarter back toward the rest of the series, the earnings power underpinning the multiple is lower than the headline annual EPS implies.
The more important issue is that JCI’s long-term growth record does not support this valuation. FY25 revenue of $23.60B remains below FY23’s $26.79B and is basically flat with FY21’s $23.67B over four years. That means the stock is being awarded a premium multiple despite no durable top-line compounding. Yes, margins have moved up, and ROE at 25.4% looks strong, but that sits beside a more grounded 10.0% ROIC and a balance sheet with $9.92B of debt against just $379M of cash. Equity is only $12.95B, so the 7.7x book multiple is not telling you this is an asset-light software platform; it is telling you investors are capitalizing a hoped-for mix shift very aggressively. Even the current ratio below 1.0 matters here: this is not a balance sheet built for heroic valuation mistakes. An EV/EBITDA of 30x for a company generating 10%-11% operating margins and low single-digit recent revenue growth is, bluntly, too expensive.
What stands out to me is that the market is paying in advance for a transformation that the financial statements only partially confirm. Gross margin has improved by about 300 bps since FY21, but operating income in FY25 at $2.56B is barely above FY21’s $2.53B despite four years passing and an inflationary environment that should have nominally helped reported dollars. The business is better, but not so much better that it deserves a valuation usually reserved for much faster growers or materially higher-return recurring-revenue models. The quarterly progression from $5.43B to $5.68B to $6.05B to $6.44B and then $5.80B to $6.14B is healthy enough, yet nothing here screams structural acceleration. This looks more like a solid, cyclical retrofit-and-equipment franchise benefiting from margin work and favorable end markets than a company that should trade at more than 4x revenue.
The best argument against my view is straightforward: JCI may be in the middle of a real quality re-rating, and backward-looking revenue comparisons may understate what investors are actually buying. The last four reported quarters sum to about $24.4B of revenue, already above FY25’s $23.6B, and the last four quarters’ net income sums to roughly $3.53B, ahead of FY25’s $3.29B. If March 2026’s 10.0% net margin is a more realistic new floor and the company can keep taking gross margin upward from 36.4% while converting more of the portfolio toward controls, service, and software-like building solutions, then today’s multiple may be discounting a business that can earn well above $4B within a couple of years. In that case, 30x trailing earnings would compress quickly. A bull would also say the September 2025 earnings spike may reflect real portfolio optimization or below-the-line gains that improved the capital base and sharpened future returns, not just noise. I weigh these points less heavily because the evidence of sustained operating leverage is still modest relative to the size of the premium.
What would change my mind is not another narrative about smart buildings; it is numbers. If JCI can produce two or three more quarters with revenue consistently above $6.2B, net margins holding around 10%-11% without one-off support, and annualized operating income tracking toward $3.0B+, then I would accept that the business mix is genuinely changing fast enough to justify a higher multiple. I would also want to see cleaner cash generation disclosure, because paying 30x earnings and 30x EBITDA without visible free cash flow support is asking for trust. On the downside, if revenue slips back toward the FY24-FY25 range while margins stall near 10%-11%, the stock should not hold a $92B market cap. My base case is that fair value is materially lower than the current quote, closer to where a high-quality but still cyclical industrial would trade on normalized earnings.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a clear story of a mature industrial whose top line is going the wrong way while the market awards it a software multiple. Annual revenue fell from $26.79B in FY2023 to $23.60B in FY2025; the five-year revenue CAGR sits at –6.2%. Recent quarterly run-rates of $5.7–6.4B show only a 2.8% year-over-year bounce, and the “Revenue Confidence: Low / decelerating” flag is earned. The FY2025 net income spike to $3.29B (versus $1.71B the prior year) is almost entirely an artifact of the September 2025 quarter’s $1.69B net income and 26.3% margin—an obvious one-time item against a normal 8–12% quarterly net margin band. Strip that out and underlying earnings power looks closer to $2.0–2.1B, which at a $92B market cap still leaves the stock at roughly 44× normalized earnings, not the already-rich reported 30×. Operating margin of 10.8% and ROIC of 9.95% are ordinary industrial numbers, not platform economics.
What the market is paying for is the narrative: building automation, data-center HVAC, and ESG retrofit cycles that supposedly convert JCI into sticky, recurring, higher-margin cash flows. Gross margin has indeed ground higher to 36.4% from the low-30s, and that is the single cleanest fundamental positive in the file. But EV/EBITDA of 30×, EV/revenue of 4.35×, and price-to-sales of 4.22× are multiples reserved for businesses that have already demonstrated durable double-digit growth and expanding ROIC—neither of which is visible here. The balance sheet adds no comfort: $9.92B of debt against $379M of cash, a current ratio of 0.93, and free-cash-flow figures simply missing from the briefing. A 1% dividend yield does not compensate for that leverage or for the valuation gap. The rule-based “mature earner” label and the valuation synthesis fair value of roughly $110 (27% below the $152 print) are directionally correct; the 38% premium to DCF is pure story.
The strongest counter-case is straightforward. A sophisticated bull would note that commercial building electrification, data-center cooling intensity, and energy-code mandates are multi-year structural tailwinds, that JCI’s integrated HVAC-controls-fire-security stack is genuinely hard to rip out once installed, and that the gross-margin trajectory from ~33% toward 36%+ is evidence the mix shift is already working. They would also argue that the FY2023–2025 revenue decline partly reflects deliberate portfolio pruning and non-core exits rather than organic demand collapse, and that once the installed base converts to higher-attachment digital services the earnings CAGR of 33% (even if flattered) could prove sustainable. That argument is coherent; I simply weigh the evidence differently. Revenue is still decelerating, ROIC remains sub-10%, cash generation is opaque, and no disclosed recurring-revenue or services-attachment metrics yet justify abandoning industrial comps for a 30× earnings multiple. Narrative intensity is strong, durability only moderate—exactly the setup where disappointment is expensive.
I would reverse the call if two or three consecutive quarters delivered organic revenue growth above 5–6% with operating margin pushing through 13%, if management began reporting a material and growing recurring digital/services mix with accompanying ROIC expansion toward the mid-teens, or if free-cash-flow conversion clarified at levels that support the current enterprise value without heroic terminal assumptions. Until those numbers appear, the stock is priced for a transformation that the income statement has not yet delivered.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
JCI looks like a textbook mature industrial: revenue oscillating in the $23-27B range, gross margin expanding steadily from 34.1% (2021) to 36.4% (2025), and operating margin recovering to 10.8% in 2025 after a dip to 8.3% in 2022. Net income jumped to $3.29B in 2025 (from $1.71B in 2024), and Altman Z of 3.03 with OCF/NI of 1.56x and negative accruals (-2.2% of assets) suggests reported earnings are backed by cash rather than accrual manipulation. Diluted share count has been shrunk from 721M to 654M (-2.4% CAGR) with buybacks running ~20x SBC, which is a genuine per-share tailwind and evidence of shareholder-oriented capital allocation.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Reconcile FCF: does the raw negative FCF series reflect continuing ops, or is it distorted by ADT/Power Solutions-style separations and pension items? Check reported adjusted FCF in the 10-K.
- Composition of the 2025 net income jump to $3.29B - are there divestiture gains (e.g., Residential and Light Commercial HVAC sale to Bosch) inflating GAAP net income?
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average coupon given $9.5B net debt and $723M short-term.
- Backlog trend in the building solutions segments and services attach rate - key to moat durability.
- Customer/geographic concentration and exposure to non-residential construction cycle.
The e2e composite pegs fair value at $105.67 and the signal-adjusted FV at $110.21, implying about -28% downside from the $152.21 price. The anchored-PE method stretches to $182 (the bull case if you accept a platform-monopoly multiple), while the EPV floor collapses to $29 - that spread tells you the market is paying almost entirely for growth and re-rating, not for in-place earnings power. Splitting the difference and leaning on the composite, deserved value sits in the $110-125 zone; $152 requires you to believe the smart-buildings/data-center narrative is not just real but under-appreciated. Earnings quality is clean (score 3) so no haircut is warranted, and the business is Solid - both facts support the deserved value but neither closes a 30% gap. The bear framing is uncomfortably plausible: a cyclical capex name trading at a premium on narrative, with four years of negative raw FCF that management labels self-funding. Without a bigger margin of safety, this is a hold-or-trim, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Reconcile GAAP FCF vs adjusted/self-funding claim - is negative raw FCF a divestiture/pension artifact or genuine burn
- Data-center and life-sciences order book growth rate and margin mix in latest transcript
- Management guidance on organic growth and segment margins for the next 12 months
- Net debt trajectory and buyback pace vs FCF generation
The prevailing pressure on JCI is positive. The tape is calmly risk-on (VIX under 15, S&P at highs), and with a 1.32 beta JCI gets amplified upside from that regime rather than the muted lift a defensive would see. More importantly, the active narrative - JCI as the picks-and-shovels layer for data-center and smart-building buildout - is a strong, moderately durable platform-monopoly story that the market is actively rewarding across the HVAC and electrical-infrastructure cohort (peers riding the same AI/data-center capex wave). Fresh news reinforces exactly that story: a record 21B backlog and 35% EPS growth in the Q3 print gives the bulls a clean, quotable data point to extend the narrative. Counter-pressures exist but are secondary right now: macro rates are still elevated (10y 4.69, market PE 26), commercial real estate remains a bear talking point, and DCF anchors well below spot - so any crack in the data-center narrative or a risk-off flip would hit this name harder than average given the beta. Net: the non-fundamental wind is at JCI's back, not a mania but a real, persistent press.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether hyperscaler capex commentary stays hot into next quarter (the pillar of the JCI narrative)
- Any crack in commercial real estate that bears can weaponize against the smart-buildings story
- Sell-side target revisions post Q3 print - upgrades would confirm the tone shift
- A VIX break above 18-20 or risk-off rotation that would punish 1.3-beta industrials first
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 10, 2026, JCI was $152.21. We expect it to be $135.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $115.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 10, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.