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AGING Analysis Report
Sep 17, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -52 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -12 · Value -78 · Sentiment 24 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysis — the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

KALU NASDAQ
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Franklin, TN 37067, United States kaiseraluminum.com Updated Sep 17, 4:35pm
Price
$155.10
Market Cap
$2.5B
Employees
3,800
Beta
1.60
Avg Volume
222,840
Last Dividend
$3.08
CEO
Mr. Keith A. Harvey

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation is a specialty industrial materials company that produces semi-fabricated aluminum products for demanding applications across aerospace, packaging, general engineering, and automotive end markets. Kaiser Aluminum serves manufacturers and major suppliers with highly engineered plate, sheet, coil, extrusions, rod, bar, tube, wire, and forging stock designed to meet performance, weight, and durability requirements. The company’s product portfolio supports uses in aircraft structures, beverage and food packaging, transportation components, and a range of industrial and custom applications. Headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee, Kaiser Aluminum operates production facilities across North America and focuses on value-added aluminum solutions for customers in the United States and international markets.

Runs with full report Generated: Sep 17, 2026 4:38pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$155.10
as of Sep 17, 4:35pm (20d ago)
Change · Sep 17
+2.72 (+1.79%)
Day Range
$154.18 – $157.52
52-Week Range
$73.08 – $199.89
50-Day MA
$164.10
200-Day MA
$148.83
Volume
7,191.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 16,349,092.00
Float 15,994,668.00
Free Float 97.8%
High free float — 97.8% of shares trade freely, ~2.2% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 4:43pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026 12:06pm (27d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics TTM · through Jun 30, 2026
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Sep 17, 2026 4:38pm
P/E · trailing (TTM) (Price per dollar of earnings over the past year — not a run-rate or forward P/E)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
11.47
Stock Price: $155.10
EPS (Diluted): 13.52
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.76
Stock Price: $155.10
Total Equity: $943.80M
Shares: 16,791,333
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
7.52
Market Cap: $2.54B
Total Debt: $1.04B
Cash: $58.50M
EBITDA: $463.80M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$3.5B
Market Cap: $2.54B
Total Debt: $1.04B
Cash: $58.50M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
14.5%
Gross Profit: $600.70M
Revenue: $4.14B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
8.2%
Operating Income: $340.90M
Revenue: $4.14B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
5.5%
Net Income: $227.00M
Revenue: $4.14B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
26.4%
Net Income: $227.00M
Total Equity: $943.80M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
13.4%
Operating Income: $340.90M
Tax Rate: 24.3%
Equity: $943.80M
Total Debt: $1.04B
Cash: $58.50M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.50
Current Assets: $1.60B
Current Liabilities: $641.90M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.10
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $1.04B
Total Debt: $1.04B
Total Equity: $943.80M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$246.31
Revenue: $4.14B
Shares: 16,791,333
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$56.21
Total Equity: $943.80M
Shares: 16,791,333
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$5.18
Operating CF: $185.90M
CapEx: -$98.90M
Shares: 16,791,333
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
2.0%
Last Dividend: $3.08
Stock Price: $155.10
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
22.9%
Dividends Paid: -$52.00M
Net Income: $227.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Sep 17, 2026 4:38pm
Compares KALU against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026 12:06pm (27d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.6B $3.4B $3.1B $3.0B $3.4B
Cost of Revenue $2.3B $3.2B $2.8B $2.7B $2.9B
Gross Profit $273.9M $247.7M $332.1M $332.9M $442.4M
Operating Expenses $209.5M $243.7M $236.3M $245.2M $253.6M
Operating Income $64.4M $4.0M $95.8M $87.7M $188.8M
Net Income -$18.5M -$29.6M $47.2M $46.8M $112.5M
EBITDA $155.9M $110.9M $204.4M $204.1M $311.3M
EPS $-1.17 $-1.86 $2.95 $2.91 $6.96
EPS (Diluted) $-1.17 $-1.86 $2.92 $2.87 $6.77
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026 12:06pm (27d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $303.2M $57.4M $82.4M $18.4M $7.0M
Total Current Assets $1.2B $1.0B $990.2M $976.4M $1.3B
Total Assets $2.4B $2.3B $2.3B $2.3B $2.6B
Current Liabilities $456.7M $418.7M $370.0M $400.6M $427.2M
Long-Term Debt $1.0B $1.0B $1.1B $1.1B $1.1B
Total Liabilities $1.7B $1.7B $1.6B $1.6B $1.7B
Total Equity $692.5M $631.2M $652.2M $668.0M $826.1M
Retained Earnings $93.0M $13.3M $10.1M $6.2M $142.5M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026 12:06pm (27d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $79.4M -$63.1M $211.9M $167.1M $111.4M
Capital Expenditure -$58.0M -$142.5M -$143.2M -$180.8M -$136.9M
Free Cash Flow $21.4M -$205.6M $68.7M -$13.7M -$25.5M
Acquisitions (net) -$609.2M — — — —
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) — — — — -$631.0M
Dividends Paid -$46.7M -$50.1M -$50.4M -$50.7M -$51.3M
Stock Buybacks — — — — —
Net Change in Cash -$477.3M -$245.7M $29.4M -$62.8M -$11.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 10, 2026 12:06pm (27d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +30.7% -9.9% -2.0% +11.5%
Gross Profit Growth -9.6% +34.1% +0.2% +32.9%
Operating Income Growth -93.8% +2,295.0% -8.5% +115.3%
Net Income Growth -60.0% +259.5% -0.8% +140.4%
EBITDA Growth -28.9% +84.3% -0.1% +52.5%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Sep 17, 2026 4:35pm (20d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-24 $0.77 — — —
2026-04-24 $0.77 — — —
2026-01-23 $0.77 — — —
2025-10-24 $0.77 — — —
2025-07-25 $0.77 — — —
2025-04-25 $0.77 — — —
2025-01-24 $0.77 — — —
2024-10-25 $0.77 — — —
2024-07-25 $0.77 — — —
2024-04-24 $0.77 — — —
2024-01-24 $0.77 — — —
2023-10-24 $0.77 — — —
2023-07-24 $0.77 — — —
2023-04-24 $0.77 — — —
2023-01-24 $0.77 — — —
2022-10-24 $0.77 — — —
2022-07-22 $0.77 — — —
2022-04-22 $0.77 — — —
2022-01-21 $0.77 — — —
2021-10-22 $0.72 — — —
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 12 computed · 6 not applicable · 6 not yet run
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yet
Why there is no ratio: Risk:reward has not been computed for this name yet — its report predates the mechanical valuation chain. It is added, at $0, the next time a report or the nightly touches this ticker.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for KALU — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-17 16:45

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing A genuine aerospace/packaging volume-and-conversion upcycle amplified by a tariff-driven domestic metal-price windfall — the business is growing, but the +48% top line and tripling of profit are not a repeatable base rate, so the sign is positive while the slope flattens hard from here. conf 7/10
Share gain Category growing · Category in expansion phase (median recent growth ~8.4%; industry revenue CAGR only ~4.8%, so mature-but-reflating), with industry-wide margin expansion. Kaiser's recent YoY ~11.5% vs industry ~5.2% puts it ahead of the tide, and its profit growth is far ahead of the margin drift — evidence of mix (aerospace/packaging) plus the domestic metal spread rather than pure beta.
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Aerospace and packaging volumes remain booked, the elevated metal spread persists in current contracts, and the YoY comparison has not yet fully lapped the mid-2025 step-up. Expect strong absolute prints with visibly narrowing YoY percentages.
↑ above expectations
Year 1
Stalling
Not deterioration — deceleration. Once the tariff-era price base is lapped, reported growth collapses back toward conversion-revenue growth plus the Warrick ramp, i.e. mid-single digits, with earnings growth flattening as the lag gain annualizes out. Direction of change is clearly down from +48%.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Holding
Structurally, earnings power settles materially above the pre-2025 base — aerospace mix, packaging capacity and industry-wide margin expansion are durable — but the metal-spread windfall is a level, not a compounder. Underlying volume/conversion growth in a ~5% CAGR industry supports holding-to-modest-growth earnings power, not compounding.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
66 Aerospace & defense plate/extrusion demand — Long-cycle recovery in commercial build rates plus defense budgets keeps Kaiser's highest-conversion-value plate and hard-alloy extrusion lines loaded; these are qualified, spec-locked positions that competitors cannot enter quickly, which is why operating income (+192% matched-quarter YoY) outran revenue by a wide margin.
48 Packaging capacity/mix ramp — Coated can-sheet capacity additions at Warrick convert into incremental shipped tons with contracted conversion pricing, and aluminum continues to take share from other substrates in beverage. This is the most visible, least cyclical volume driver in the mix and supports growth even as metal prices normalize.
58 Domestic metal-price/tariff spread — Elevated US Midwest premium under Section 232 inflates both revenue (pass-through) and, with contract lag, margin. It is the single largest explanation for the earnings step-change and for five of six large EPS beats — real cash today, but a level effect, not a growth engine.
37 Share gain inside a mature category — Recent company YoY of ~11.5% against industry ~5.2% (+6.4pp gap) with industry gross/operating margins expanding ~2.7-2.8pp over three years: Kaiser is capturing more than the tide in a category whose own median growth is ~8.4%.
Growth risks
69 Comp lapping / pass-through reversal — The surge began mid-2025; by late 2026 YoY laps the tariff-era price step. Revenue growth measured on a metal-inclusive top line mechanically decays toward conversion-revenue growth (mid-single digit) without any deterioration in the business.
55 Policy dependence of the margin windfall — Any softening of aluminum tariff policy compresses the Midwest premium and the lag gain that drove the profit tripling. Kaiser cannot control this variable and it is the largest single swing factor in forward earnings power.
30 Automotive & general engineering softness — Two of four end markets are tied to industrial production and light-vehicle build, both exposed to the stated macro headwind (10y ~5%, flat curve). Weak GE/auto volumes cap the volume half of growth even while aerospace runs hot.
38 Price already assumes a windfall is permanent — Price-implied growth of +60% vs house-projected +43.7% requires peak metal spreads AND peak aerospace to persist through the structural horizon — a compounding of two cyclical peaks.
The governing external fact is US trade policy: Section 232 aluminum duties keep the Midwest premium structurally elevated, advantaging domestic semi-fab producers who buy metal and sell conversion. Layered on that is a genuine, multi-year aerospace fleet and defense rebuild that lifts qualified plate demand, and continued substitution toward aluminum cans in packaging. Against it sits a high-rate, flat-curve macro that suppresses auto and general industrial volumes. Net: the demand backdrop is real and multi-year; the price backdrop is policy-contingent and mean-reverting.
Growth position composite +6 near/structural split
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
30Year 1 · Stalling
50Years 2–3 · Holding
+6Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-09-17 16:41:38
Verdict overvalued, but not by 58%. At $155 you're paying ~16x annualized Q2-26 earnings for a company whose 4-year average net income is under $40M and whose FCF just went negative in the strongest revenue year of its history. That's a bad risk/reward even if you believe aerospace runs another two years, because the balance sheet gives no cushion and the cash conversion is broken. Fair value in the $95-115 range on blended normalized earnings; the stock needs to prove Q2-26 margins hold for another 2-3 quarters AND FCF turns positive before the premium is earned. I'd wait for either a cycle-scare drawdown to $95 or clear evidence in Q3/Q4-26 prints that FCF is following EPS. Agree with synthesis direction, dissent on magnitude.

The quarterly trajectory is genuinely striking: revenue has climbed from $747.7M (Q3-24) to $1.26B (Q2-26), a 68% jump in seven quarters, with net margin expanding from 1.2% to 7.7% over the same window. Q2-26 net income of $96.8M annualizes to ~$390M run-rate, which against a $2.54B market cap is a ~6.5x forward P/E if you believe the run-rate holds. That is the entire bull case in one sentence, and it's why the synthesis's $64.81 fair value feels aggressive on the downside — a DCF anchored to normalized mid-cycle margins of 3-4% net will always show 60% downside when you're printing 7.7% at cycle peak. The question isn't the math, it's whether $390M is repeatable or a cyclical top-tick.

The bear evidence is real and I lean toward it. Free cash flow was NEGATIVE $25.5M in 2025 despite $112.5M in reported net income — that's a 122% gap between accounting earnings and cash, driven by $137M capex and, presumably, working capital build tied to the revenue surge (aluminum inventory revaluation as metal prices rose). Debt at $1.07B against $7M cash is a genuinely stressed balance sheet for a cyclical: net debt/equity ~1.29x, and if EBITDA reverts, coverage compresses fast. The TTM ROE of 26.4% vs. annual 13.6% is exactly the "peak-cycle mirage" the anomaly flags warn about — you're being asked to capitalize a number that didn't exist 18 months ago and won't exist 18 months from now if aerospace destocks or aluminum LME rolls over. Historical operating margins averaged 2-3% (2021-2024); current TTM is 8.2%. That's a 3-4x margin expansion the market is being asked to extrapolate.

Where I part company with the models: the synthesis's $64.81 is too pessimistic and the market-forces "value trap" call is too neat. A mid-cycle earnings power of ~$150-180M (blending recent quarters with 2023-24 baseline, giving partial credit to real aerospace share gains at Trentwood) at a cyclical 12-14x multiple gets you to ~$110-125/share, not $65. The narrative-economics layer is closest to right: this IS a late-cycle cyclical with a fragile aerospace-durability story, but the DCF fair value understates the structural improvement in Kaiser's product mix (aero packaging vs. general engineering has genuinely shifted). The insider activity is a non-signal — those are all June award grants, not open-market sales; the "Unusual Selling Activity" flag looks like a misread of routine equity comp vesting. That undercuts one of the market-forces pillars.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-09-17 16:41:56
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly undervalued at $155 — the year-long earnings step-up looks real, but leverage and poor free-cash-flow conversion cap upside; I’d see solid value below $140 and full value around $170.

What jumps out is not a fragile one-quarter spike but a very clear year-long earnings inflection. On a trailing basis through 2026-06-30, Kaiser has gone from $3.11 billion of revenue in the prior twelve months to roughly $4.14 billion now, up about 33%, while net income expanded from roughly $54.5 million to $227.0 million, up more than 4x. The quarterly progression is equally telling: revenue has climbed from $747.7 million eight quarters ago to $1.26 billion most recently, and net margin has moved from 1.2% to 7.7%. TTM operating margin is 8.2% and net margin 5.5%, versus annual 2024 operating income of just $87.7 million on $3.02 billion of sales. This is not merely aluminum price noise; the business is demonstrating substantial operating leverage after years of depressed profitability. At $155.1, the stock trades at 11.5x TTM earnings and 7.5x EV/EBITDA, which is not an obvious “peak-cycle bubble” multiple for a company producing 26% ROE and 13.4% ROIC on the current run rate.

The market cap of $2.54 billion also needs to be read against enterprise value and earnings power, not against backward-looking book value alone. With $1.07 billion of debt and only $7 million of cash, balance-sheet leverage is real, but the company’s current ratio is 2.5 and the income statement is now carrying that leverage much better than it did in 2023-2024. If I annualize the latest quarter’s earnings, the business is running well above the current TTM figure; even without assuming further improvement, a 7.7% net margin on $1.26 billion of quarterly revenue implies earnings power materially above what the headline P/E already captures. That is why I do not buy the extreme overvaluation call around $65 fair value. A business with sales up 33%, operating income roughly doubling from $188.8 million on 2025 annual figures to an implied TTM north of $340 million, and clear margin expansion should not be valued like a no-growth metal processor.

The real blemish is cash conversion. Annual operating cash flow of $111.4 million against annual net income of $112.5 million looked acceptable, but capex of $136.9 million pushed free cash flow to negative $25.5 million, and the near-zero cash balance means investors cannot shrug that off. This is a capital-intensive business, and debt-to-equity of 1.10 gives little room for a cyclical stumble. Still, the bears overstate this point when they treat negative free cash flow as proof the earnings are fake. For a manufacturer in an upswing, capex can be strategic rather than distress-driven; if today’s higher volume and margins persist, FCF should inflect with a lag. The dividend payout ratio at 22.9% also suggests earnings are not yet under obvious strain. My read is that the stock is not cheap enough to ignore the balance-sheet risk, but it is also nowhere near as expensive as a simplistic “cyclical peak” framework implies.

The strongest case against my view is straightforward: this may indeed be close to peak conditions. Gross margin at 14.5% and operating margin at 8.2% are well above the 2022-2024 experience, when annual operating income ranged from just $4.0 million to $95.8 million. If aerospace and industrial demand soften, if conversion spreads narrow, or if working capital keeps absorbing cash, then today’s 11.5x P/E can become a much uglier multiple on normalized earnings. The debt load matters more in that scenario because $1.07 billion of debt against $826.1 million of equity is not a conservative setup, and the absence of open-market insider buying offers no counter-signal. A skeptic can reasonably argue the stock deserves only a mid-cycle earnings multiple on something closer to $100-130 million of sustainable net income, which would make $155 look full.

What would change my mind is mostly about durability and cash. If the next two quarters show revenue holding above roughly $1.0-1.1 billion while net margin stays above 5%, and operating cash flow begins to outrun net income so that free cash flow turns positive after capex, I would move more bullish and underwrite value north of $170. Conversely, if quarterly revenue drops back toward the $850-900 million range or net margin falls back under 3% while debt remains elevated and cash generation stays weak, then the bear case wins and I would view $155 as plainly too high. Right now I think the stock is closer to fairly valued than either the deep-bear model suggests or a full-cycle bull would want, with a modest positive skew because the current earnings run rate is being discounted too aggressively.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-09-17 16:42:52
Verdict Fairly valued near $155 on 11.5× TTM / ~8× run-rate earnings; prior $65 DCF is too punitive given accelerating $4.1B revenue base

The raw numbers show a company in the steep part of a cyclical recovery, not a mature earner coasting on old capacity. Trailing-twelve-month revenue through mid-2026 is roughly $4.14B (sum of the four most recent quarters: $1.26B + $1.11B + $929M + $843.5M), up about 33% from the prior-year window near $3.1B, while TTM net income has exploded to roughly $227M versus something closer to $55M a year earlier. Sequential progress is unambiguous: revenue stepped from the mid-$700Ms in late 2024 to $1.26B by Q2 2026, and net margin climbed from 0–3% to 7.7%. Calendar 2025 already showed the inflection—$3.37B revenue, $112.5M net income, operating margin roughly double 2024—and the first half of 2026 has accelerated further. At $155 and a $2.54B market cap the stock trades at 11.5× TTM earnings, 0.63× sales, and 7.5× EV/EBITDA. Those are not peak-cycle multiples; they are mid-cycle industrials numbers on earnings that are still rising. The prior models’ claim of 23× P/E and a $65 fair value is simply inconsistent with the canonical TTM metrics in the same brief—those models appear to be discounting a trough or heavily mean-reverted earnings base that the last six quarters have already left behind. ROE at 26% TTM and ROIC at 13% confirm capital is finally earning its keep after the 2021–22 losses. Insider “selling” is also a false flag: every listed transaction is an A-Award grant, not open-market disposal.

Cash generation and the balance sheet are the real soft spots, and they keep this from being a clean compounder story. 2025 free cash flow was –$25.5M on $137M of capex despite $111M of operating cash flow, so the earnings surge has not yet translated into surplus cash. Cash on the 2025 year-end sheet was only $7M against $1.07B of debt and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.1; current ratio of 2.5 provides some working-capital cushion, but absolute liquidity is thin for a capital-intensive metals processor. Gross margin of 14.5% and operating margin of 8.2% TTM are improved, yet still well below what a true specialty franchise would sustain through a downturn. The aerospace/defense narrative is doing real work at these prices—the stock is trading at roughly 2.4× the DCF the quantitative layer prefers—but the multiple expansion is modest once you use actual trailing earnings rather than a normalized trough. In short, the data describe a leveraged cyclical that is executing well in a favorable demand window, priced as if that window will last a few more years but not forever.

The strongest opposing case is straightforward and data-backed: negative FCF, near-zero cash, elevated leverage, and a commodity-linked cost structure mean that any stall in aerospace build rates, aluminum pricing, or auto sheet demand would compress the 7–8% net margins back toward the 1–3% range of 2024 and leave equity holders with limited buffer. A smart bear would note that earnings CAGR of 113% and a 317% recent earnings YoY print are classic late-cycle optics, that FCF CAGR is still negative, and that the $65–70 DCF is effectively saying the market is capitalizing a temporary peak. They would also point out that the balance-sheet snapshot is stale relative to the June 2026 income statement, so net debt could be higher still after another half-year of heavy capex. I weigh that case seriously on solvency and cycle risk, but I discount the pure valuation-overstretch argument because 11.5× trailing and ~8× annualized first-half 2026 run-rate earnings already embed substantial mean reversion; the $65 target requires margins and volumes to collapse harder than the current order trajectory and aerospace production guidance suggest.

What flips the verdict is concrete: two consecutive quarters of sequential revenue decline or net margin back below 4%, free-cash-flow remaining negative after the current capex wave, or a material cut to Boeing/Airbus rate guidance that removes the specialty-product volume tail. Conversely, a clean quarter of positive FCF above $50M with cash rebuilding above $100M and net debt/EBITDA trending under 2.5× would make the current $155 look clearly cheap rather than merely reasonable.

Qwen Reading local experiment · off-panel
Independent reading · qwen3.8:27b on the local GPU · generated 2026-09-17 16:43:12 · 19.6s (87.1 tok/s) · live briefing
Overvalued · conviction 4/5 · bull 2/10
followed the VERDICT/STANCE contract
Verdict Kaiser Aluminum is severely overvalued at $155.10, trading at a 2.4x premium to its DCF fair value of $64.81, driven by a cyclical earnings peak that is not supported by positive free cash flow or a sustainable balance sheet.

The most glaring contradiction in this data set is not the valuation multiple, but the fundamental disconnect between the reported earnings trajectory and the cash flow reality. The market is pricing Kaiser Aluminum at $155.10, a level that implies a P/E of roughly 11.5x on TTM earnings, which looks cheap on the surface. However, the underlying data reveals a classic cyclical peak trap. While net income has exploded from $46.8M in 2024 to $112.5M in 2025, and the most recent quarter (June 2026) showed a 7.7% net margin, the company is burning cash. Free cash flow was negative $25.5M in 2025, driven by capex of $136.9M against operating cash flow of only $111.4M. This is not a company generating surplus cash to fund growth; it is a company leveraging its balance sheet to maintain operations. The "mature earner" classification assigned by the rule-based model is dangerously misleading. A mature earner should be a cash cow; Kaiser is a cash sink with a temporary earnings spike. The 17.9% revenue CAGR is impressive, but it is being funded by debt, not efficiency. With total debt at $1.07B and only $7.0M in cash, the debt-to-equity ratio of 1.10 is not a minor technicality—it is the central risk. The market is treating the 316.5% earnings growth as structural, but the negative FCF CAGR of -14.6% suggests that every dollar of reported profit is being consumed by capital intensity or working capital drag, leaving nothing for shareholders.

The valuation synthesis provided by the prior models, which pegs fair value at $64.81, is actually too generous given the cash flow quality. The "overvalued" verdict is correct, but the magnitude of the overvaluation is likely understated. The market is paying a 2.4x premium to DCF based on the "aerospace surge" narrative. This narrative is fragile because it relies on the assumption that Kaiser can sustain 13-14% gross margins indefinitely. Historically, Kaiser’s gross margins have hovered between 10-11% (e.g., 2023: 10.7%, 2024: 11.0%). The jump to 14.5% in 2025 is a cyclical outlier, likely driven by aluminum price spikes and temporary supply constraints, not structural pricing power. When the cycle normalizes, these margins will compress, and the earnings base will shrink. The current P/E of 11.5x is a "low" multiple only because the denominator (earnings) is at a cyclical peak. If earnings revert to the 2023 level of $47.2M, the P/E would effectively double to over 25x, which is expensive for a basic materials company with negative FCF. The insider activity, while small in share count, is a red flag: consistent "A-Award" transactions in June 2026 suggest insiders are monetizing their positions during the earnings peak, a classic exit strategy.

The strongest case against my bearish read is the genuine demand tailwind from aerospace and defense. It is true that Boeing and Airbus are ramping production, and Kaiser’s specialty aluminum is a critical input. If this demand is structural rather than cyclical, the margin expansion could be sustained. The revenue growth of 32.8% YoY is real, and the company is capturing market share. However, I weigh this differently because the balance sheet cannot support the required capex. To maintain this growth, Kaiser must continue to invest heavily, but it is not generating the cash to do so. This creates a refinancing risk. If interest rates remain elevated or credit markets tighten, the $1.07B debt load becomes a straitjacket. The "neutral" market forces signal is an understatement; the combination of negative FCF, high debt, and peak earnings is a toxic cocktail. The market is ignoring the cash flow statement in favor of the income statement, which is a fundamental error in valuing capital-intensive cyclicals.

What would change my mind is a significant improvement in free cash flow. If the next two quarters show FCF turning positive and growing, it would validate the thesis that the margin expansion is structural and that the company is becoming more efficient. Additionally, a reduction in debt or a strategic partnership that provides liquidity would mitigate the balance sheet risk. Until then, the stock is a value trap. The $155.10 price is not justified by the cash generation capacity of the business. The market is pricing in a perfect execution of the aerospace cycle, with no margin for error. Given the negative FCF and high leverage, the risk of a sharp correction is high. I am firmly in the "overvalued" camp, with high conviction that the current price is unsustainable.

Experiment only: this reading is not a panel seat and feeds nothing — compare it against the Claude, GPT and Grok readings above.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 4.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.0 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-09-17 16:45:47
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Rich cyclical - pass, revisit sub-$110 7/10
Real earnings inflection, but a levered cyclical trading well above any defensible fair value - this is a pass at $155, not a buy.
The cruxWhether Q2-26 peak margins and aerospace pull-through are a new plateau or a cycle top - the $980M net debt means the answer determines equity survival, not just multiple.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from KALU's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-12
Mixed
edge √Σ 92 · risk √Σ 104 · conf 6/10

Kaiser's TTM through 2026-06 shows a genuine step-change: revenue $4.14B (up from $3.11B), gross margin expanding to 14.5% from 11.2%, operating margin doubling to 8.2%, and net income leaping to $227M from $54.5M. That is a real operational inflection, not an accrual mirage — Beneish M of -2.15, accruals of -2.7% of assets, and Altman Z of 3.11 all sit in safe territory, and diluted share count growth of ~1.3% CAGR is disciplined. SBC at 0.5% of revenue is modest for an industrial. However, FCF of $87M badly lags $227M net income (OCF/NI flagged at -1.29x, and prior year FCF was -$38.5M), so cash conversion is uneven and likely working-capital / capex heavy. Net debt of roughly $980M against only $58.5M liquid cash makes the balance sheet a constraint: at $87M FCF, leverage is material relative to cash generation, and this is a commodity-exposed business where a cycle turn would compress that quickly. Insider tape is one-sided sells (7 sales / $13M, zero opens) into the earnings surge, which is consistent with a normal comp-driven pattern but is not a vote of confidence at a cyclical peak. Overall: an improving mid-cycle industrial with acceptable earnings integrity, but not a fortress — durability depends on aluminum spreads holding.

Strengths 3
m62
Genuine margin and earnings inflection
Gross margin 8.2% (2022) to 14.5% (TTM); operating margin 1.7% to 8.2%; net income $227M vs $54.5M prior year on revenue up ~33%.
m55
Clean mechanical earnings-quality checks
Beneish M -2.15, accruals -2.7% of assets, Altman Z 3.11 (safe zone) — no manipulation flags on the reported jump.
m40
Disciplined share count
Diluted shares grew from 15.9M to 16.8M over 5 years (~1.3% CAGR); SBC only 0.5% of revenue.
Concerns 4
m65
Leveraged balance sheet vs cash generation
Net debt of ~$980M against $58.5M cash and only $87M TTM FCF — the balance sheet is a real constraint in a cyclical industry.
m60
Cash conversion lags reported earnings
TTM FCF $87M vs net income $227M; prior year FCF was -$38.5M and 2023 was -$202M — working-capital and capex intensity make cash flow volatile.
m45
Commodity cyclicality risk on the inflection
Revenue and margin surge coincides with a favorable aluminum spread environment; 2022-2023 op margins of 1-2% show how quickly the earnings power compresses.
m30
One-sided insider selling into the surge
7 sales totaling $13M, zero open-market buys in TTM; sales by Grimley and Harvey in April 2026 near the earnings peak. Likely routine but no insider conviction visible.
This looks like a competent, mid-cycle industrial having a very good year, not a structurally elite business. The margin jump is real and the accounting checks are clean, so I don't suspect the numbers — but $980M of net debt on a commodity converter with $87M of TTM FCF and lumpy cash conversion (negative FCF in two of the last four years) is exactly the kind of setup where quality grades get downgraded fast when the cycle turns. Dilution discipline is a genuine positive. I'd call it Mixed leaning Solid only if I could get comfortable that the margin inflection is structural (product mix, aerospace) rather than a spread windfall — I can't tell from this data.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenant headroom against the $980M net debt
  • Capex plans (Warrick roll coater / Phase VII) and how much of the FCF gap is growth capex vs maintenance
  • Customer concentration in aerospace and packaging end-markets
  • Whether the margin expansion reflects Midwest Premium / metal lag benefits that could reverse
  • Pension and OPEB obligations given Kaiser's legacy
  • Hedging policy on aluminum and natural gas
Valuation / Mispricing
-78
Rich
edge √Σ 15 · risk √Σ 118 · conf 7/10
Price $155 vs deserved ~$95-105 (DCF-anchored) - roughly 35-40% overvalued; composite says worse. attractive below $95.00

The composite fair value of $69.85 and signal-adjusted $64.81 sit less than half of the $155.10 price, implying a -58% gap. Even the more generous DCF at $102.53 leaves ~34% downside, while the EPV floor of $4.50 is a runaway output I'd discount as a stale-cycle artifact rather than gospel. Weighting the DCF most heavily (it captures the aerospace ramp), a deserved value in the $90-110 range is defensible; nothing in the inputs supports $155 without assuming peak specialty aluminum margins persist through a full cycle.

Cheap signals 1
m15
Clean earnings quality
High earnings-quality score means no haircut needed - the reported margins are real, which tempers how bearish I want to be, but doesn't rescue the price.
Rich / priced-in 4
m72
Price 51% above DCF
DCF pegs fair value at $102.53 vs $155.10 price; the market is baking in an extension of current aerospace-driven margins well beyond what a discounted stream supports.
m65
Composite FV less than half of price
Composite $69.85 and signal-adjusted $64.81 imply -58% downside. Even discounting the EPV $4.50 as a floor artifact, the ensemble screams rich.
m55
Leverage amplifies cyclical downside
$980M net debt against only $87M TTM FCF means any mean reversion in aluminum/aerospace margins hits equity holders disproportionately - the price gives no cushion for that.
m40
Late-cycle narrative already in tape
The bull case (structural aerospace surge, pricing power) is what you'd need to justify $155; the setup is 'priced for the bull thesis to be right,' not for a cyclical converter trading fairly.
I can't get to $155 without underwriting a decade of peak specialty-aluminum margins on a levered converter - that's a heroic bet, not a value bet. The signal-adjusted FV under $65 looks too harsh given a genuine aerospace inflection, but even a charitable DCF-weighted $95-105 leaves the price 40%+ too high. I'd need it below roughly $95 before the risk/reward on a cyclical with $980M net debt starts to interest me; today it's a pass on price.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward aerospace order book and long-term supply agreements - are the pricing gains locked in or spot?
  • Capex/capacity plans that could compress industry margins
  • Debt maturity schedule and refi terms given the $980M load
  • Segment margin sustainability vs peak commodity spreads
General Sentiment
+24
Tailwind
tail √Σ 87 · head √Σ 62 · conf 6/10

The active story on KALU is a late-cycle aerospace/defense pull on specialty aluminum - intensity strong but durability fragile. That narrative is doing real work: the stock is compounding 32.8% recently vs a 17.9% long-run pace, and just got a Zacks #1 Strong Buy upgrade citing rising earnings estimates. Analyst tone via revisions is the cleanest near-term tailwind and it lands on a name already in an uptrend, which tends to attract momentum flows. Against that, the tape flipped risk-off (VIX 17.7, S&P off highs) and KALU carries a 1.6 beta in a commodity-cyclical bucket - exactly the profile that gets sold first in a sustained drawdown. For now the regime is only 1 day old and low-conviction, so the narrative and revisions dominate the pressure. The vulnerability is that the bull story is fragile and cyclical: any crack in aerospace demand headlines, an aluminum price wobble, or a deepening risk-off week would hit this name harder than the index. Net, sentiment is tilted positive but not decisively so - a tailwind riding on a shaky floor.

Tailwinds 3
m55
Zacks Strong Buy upgrade on rising estimates
Fresh Rank #1 upgrade driven by positive earnings estimate revisions is a direct, near-term sentiment lift and typically pulls momentum and quant flows into the name over the following weeks.
m50
Momentum regime intact
Recent 32.8% pace vs 17.9% long-term shows the trend is accelerating; trend-followers and CTAs continue to reinforce the bid until it breaks.
m45
Aerospace up-cycle narrative in favor
Post-COVID fleet rebuild plus defense spending is a story the market is currently paying up for across the aero supply chain, and KALU is a clean specialty-aluminum way to express it.
Headwinds 3
m45
High-beta cyclical into a risk-off tape
Beta 1.6 in a commodity-materials bucket is exactly what gets marked down first if the nascent risk-off regime extends; VIX at a 1-year high tilts flows away from this profile.
m35
Fragile narrative durability
The story is rated strong but fragile - one soft aerospace print, aluminum price roll, or recession headline could snap the sentiment fast given how cyclical the name is.
m25
Rates/valuation macro drag
10y near 5% and a stretched market PE are a general drag on high-multiple cyclicals, but this is background pressure, not the dominant force on KALU right now.
Net, I read KALU as a modest tailwind: a strong-buy upgrade plus an active aerospace narrative plus accelerating momentum is a real bid, and it is landing right now. But this is a high-beta, fragile-story cyclical, and a genuine risk-off week would flip the pressure quickly - so I lean positive with one hand on the exit.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether the risk-off regime persists beyond a few sessions and VIX pushes above 20
  • Aerospace order/build-rate headlines (Boeing, Airbus, defense primes) that either validate or crack the story
  • Aluminum spot and LME inventory trend as a narrative pressure gauge
  • Follow-through analyst target revisions after the Zacks upgrade
  • Any peer cyclical rolling over as a leading tell for the group
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+6
Growing
edge √Σ 107 · risk √Σ 101 · conf 7/10

The governing external fact is US trade policy: Section 232 aluminum duties keep the Midwest premium structurally elevated, advantaging domestic semi-fab producers who buy metal and sell conversion. Layered on that is a genuine, multi-year aerospace fleet and defense rebuild that lifts qualified plate demand, and continued substitution toward aluminum cans in packaging. Against it sits a high-rate, flat-curve macro that suppresses auto and general industrial volumes. Net: the demand backdrop is real and multi-year; the price backdrop is policy-contingent and mean-reverting.

Growth drivers 4
m66
Aerospace & defense plate/extrusion demand
Long-cycle recovery in commercial build rates plus defense budgets keeps Kaiser's highest-conversion-value plate and hard-alloy extrusion lines loaded; these are qualified, spec-locked positions that competitors cannot enter quickly, which is why operating income (+192% matched-quarter YoY) outran revenue by a wide margin.
m48
Packaging capacity/mix ramp
Coated can-sheet capacity additions at Warrick convert into incremental shipped tons with contracted conversion pricing, and aluminum continues to take share from other substrates in beverage. This is the most visible, least cyclical volume driver in the mix and supports growth even as metal prices normalize.
m58
Domestic metal-price/tariff spread
Elevated US Midwest premium under Section 232 inflates both revenue (pass-through) and, with contract lag, margin. It is the single largest explanation for the earnings step-change and for five of six large EPS beats — real cash today, but a level effect, not a growth engine.
m37
Share gain inside a mature category
Recent company YoY of ~11.5% against industry ~5.2% (+6.4pp gap) with industry gross/operating margins expanding ~2.7-2.8pp over three years: Kaiser is capturing more than the tide in a category whose own median growth is ~8.4%.
Growth risks 4
m69
Comp lapping / pass-through reversal
The surge began mid-2025; by late 2026 YoY laps the tariff-era price step. Revenue growth measured on a metal-inclusive top line mechanically decays toward conversion-revenue growth (mid-single digit) without any deterioration in the business.
m55
Policy dependence of the margin windfall
Any softening of aluminum tariff policy compresses the Midwest premium and the lag gain that drove the profit tripling. Kaiser cannot control this variable and it is the largest single swing factor in forward earnings power.
m30
Automotive & general engineering softness
Two of four end markets are tied to industrial production and light-vehicle build, both exposed to the stated macro headwind (10y ~5%, flat curve). Weak GE/auto volumes cap the volume half of growth even while aerospace runs hot.
m38
Price already assumes a windfall is permanent
Price-implied growth of +60% vs house-projected +43.7% requires peak metal spreads AND peak aerospace to persist through the structural horizon — a compounding of two cyclical peaks.
vs expectations: ~6m above · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
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Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for KALU — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.760 · f4b58a28 · 2026-10-07 20:07:48