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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 3, 2026
9 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for KBR Inc. (KBR) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-13): Designation Watch · Cairn score +28 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 23 · Value 32 · Sentiment -52 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $55.11 vs $37.11 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

KBR Inc.

KBR NYSE
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Houston, TX 77002, United States kbr.com Updated Aug 3, 4:50pm
Price
$37.11
Market Cap
$4.7B
Employees
37,000
Beta
0.45
Avg Volume
1,988,170
Last Dividend
$0.66
CEO
Mr. Stuart John Baxter Bradie

KBR Inc. is an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) company that specializes in delivering a wide array of services to the energy, technology, and government sectors. Known principally for its role in project management and engineering solutions, the company provides expertise in designing infrastructure and advanced technological systems. KBR supports both commercial and state entities through differentiated technology solutions, which encompass everything from energy and chemicals to aerospace and defense systems. Its significant contribution to the construction and maintenance of energy facilities includes oil and gas projects, highlighting its impact on global energy infrastructure. Additionally, KBR’s work with government entities showcases its capabilities in high-stakes environments, delivering mission-critical solutions in areas such as space exploration and defense. With a foundation dating back to 1901, KBR Inc. has grown into a pivotal player in its industries, recognized for its ability to adapt to emerging technologies and complex project demands, significantly influencing industries reliant on robust engineering solutions.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 3, 2026 5:02pm
Earnings Schedule
Checked daily · calendar updated Aug 13
No upcoming print on the calendar yet — companies typically confirm a few weeks ahead. Last print was Jul 28, 2026.
EPS surprise history — vs analyst consensus · 3 prints of vendor history
+4.2%
Feb '26
+5.5%
May '26
+2.3%
Jul '26
Print date EPS est. EPS actual Revenue est. Revenue actual
Jul 28, 2026 $0.87 $0.89 +2.3%
May 5, 2026 $0.91 $0.96 +5.5%
Feb 26, 2026 $0.95 $0.99 +4.2%

Green = beat the estimate, red = missed. An earnings print is the fastest way a thesis changes — our designations should be re-read after each one.

Recent SEC Filings
Filed Form Document
Aug 6, 2026 4 View
Jul 30, 2026 10-Q View
Jul 30, 2026 8-K View
Jul 17, 2026 4 View
Jul 17, 2026 4 View
Jul 17, 2026 4 View
Jul 10, 2026 8-K View
May 21, 2026 4 View
May 21, 2026 4 View
May 18, 2026 8-K View
May 15, 2026 4 View
May 15, 2026 4 View

Filings link to the SEC’s EDGAR system. Annual/quarterly reports (10-K, 10-Q, 20-F) carry the full story; 8-K/6-K current reports are the fastest signal that something material happened.

Price Overview
Price at report time
$37.11
as of Aug 3, 5:05pm (9d ago)
Change · Aug 3
+0.50 (+1.37%)
Day Range
$36.57 – $37.38
52-Week Range
$29.94 – $52.23
50-Day MA
$35.05
200-Day MA
$38.88
Volume
395,352.00
Right now · live
loading…
 
Real-time — the change above is the move since the report (over 9d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 126,067,755.00
Float 124,442,742.00
Free Float 98.7%
High free float — 98.7% of shares trade freely, ~1.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:18pm (9d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:17pm (9d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 3, 2026 4:59pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
11.56
Stock Price: $37.11
EPS (Diluted): 3.21
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.17
Stock Price: $37.11
Total Equity: $1.51B
Shares: 129,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
7.27
Market Cap: $4.68B
Total Debt: $2.60B
Cash: $500.00M
EBITDA: $947.00M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$6.9B
Market Cap: $4.68B
Total Debt: $2.60B
Cash: $500.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
14.8%
Gross Profit: $1.15B
Revenue: $7.79B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
10.0%
Operating Income: $778.00M
Revenue: $7.79B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
5.3%
Net Income: $415.00M
Revenue: $7.79B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
27.4%
Net Income: $415.00M
Total Equity: $1.51B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
16.1%
Operating Income: $778.00M
Tax Rate: 25.4%
Equity: $1.51B
Total Debt: $2.60B
Cash: $500.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.22
Current Assets: $2.05B
Current Liabilities: $1.69B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.72
Short-Term Debt: $49.00M
Long-Term Debt: $2.55B
Total Debt: $2.60B
Total Equity: $1.51B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$60.36
Revenue: $7.79B
Shares: 129,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$11.72
Total Equity: $1.51B
Shares: 129,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
Operating CF: N/A
CapEx: -$42.00M
Shares: 129,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.8%
Last Dividend: $0.66
Stock Price: $37.11
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
20.2%
Dividends Paid: -$84.00M
Net Income: $415.00M
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 4:59pm
Compares KBR against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:17pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026
Revenue $7.3B $6.6B $7.0B $7.7B $7.8B
Cost of Revenue $6.5B $5.7B $6.0B $6.6B $6.6B
Gross Profit $806.0M $828.0M $977.0M $1.1B $1.2B
Operating Expenses $575.0M $485.0M $529.0M $440.0M $372.0M
Operating Income $231.0M $343.0M $448.0M $659.0M $778.0M
Net Income $18.0M $190.0M -$265.0M $375.0M $415.0M
EBITDA $377.0M $480.0M $589.0M $815.0M $947.0M
EPS $0.13 $1.36 $-1.96 $2.79 $3.21
EPS (Diluted) $0.12 $1.26 $-1.96 $2.79 $3.21
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 4:50pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $370.0M $389.0M $304.0M $342.0M $500.0M
Total Current Assets $2.2B $1.7B $1.7B $1.9B $2.1B
Total Assets $6.2B $5.6B $5.6B $6.7B $6.6B
Current Liabilities $1.9B $1.8B $1.6B $1.8B $1.7B
Long-Term Debt $1.9B $1.4B $1.8B $2.5B $2.5B
Total Liabilities $4.5B $3.9B $4.2B $5.2B $5.1B
Total Equity $1.7B $1.6B $1.4B $1.5B $1.5B
Retained Earnings $1.3B $1.4B $1.1B $1.4B $1.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:17pm (9d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $278.0M $396.0M $331.0M $462.0M
Capital Expenditure -$30.0M -$71.0M -$80.0M -$52.0M -$42.0M
Free Cash Flow $248.0M $325.0M $251.0M $410.0M
Acquisitions (net) -$399.0M -$73.0M $0 -$738.0M -$14.0M
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$44.0M -$16.0M
Dividends Paid -$61.0M -$66.0M -$72.0M -$79.0M -$84.0M
Stock Buybacks -$82.0M -$203.0M -$138.0M -$218.0M -$329.0M
Net Change in Cash -$66.0M $19.0M -$85.0M $46.0M $155.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:17pm (9d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2025 2026
Revenue Growth -10.6% +6.0% +10.8% +1.0%
Gross Profit Growth +2.7% +18.0% +12.5% +4.6%
Operating Income Growth +48.5% +30.6% +47.1% +18.1%
Net Income Growth +955.6% -239.5% +241.5% +10.7%
EBITDA Growth +27.3% +22.7% +38.4% +16.2%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:18pm (9d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-15 $0.17
2026-03-13 $0.17
2025-12-15 $0.17
2025-09-15 $0.17
2025-06-13 $0.17
2025-03-14 $0.17
2024-12-13 $0.15
2024-09-16 $0.15
2024-06-17 $0.15
2024-03-14 $0.15
2023-12-14 $0.14
2023-09-14 $0.14
2023-06-14 $0.14
2023-03-14 $0.14
2022-12-14 $0.12
2022-09-14 $0.12
2022-06-14 $0.12
2022-03-14 $0.12
2021-12-14 $0.11
2021-09-14 $0.11
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Aug 3, 2026 5:05pm (9d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-07-15 Dominguez Joseph A-Award 34.00 $35.98 $1,223
2026-07-15 Dugle Lynn A A-Award 51.00 $35.98 $1,835
2026-07-15 Vigeveno Huibert Hans A-Award 34.00 $35.98 $1,223
Deep Analysis
Last run: Aug 3, 2026 5:11:41 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for KBR — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-03 17:16:10
Verdict Modestly undervalued but not the 45% gift Synthesis claims — fair value $43-47 on trailing earnings at a blended 14-15x; starter position justified by insider buying and dividend floor, but full conviction requires Q2 FY26 revenue re-acceleration and disclosed FCF.

The raw trajectory is less flattering than the synthesis suggests. Quarterly revenue peaked at $2.11B in Q4 2024 and has stepped down four consecutive quarters to $1.92B — a ~9% top-line contraction while the "growth" narrative rests on annual FY26 revenue ($7.79B) barely edging FY25 ($7.71B), just 1% YoY. The revenue_cagr of 5.8% is flattered by the 2021 base and disguises the fact that KBR is currently *decelerating*, not accelerating. Net margins are noisy in a tight 3.6–6.0% band with no clear expansion trend — Q1 FY26 5.3% is worse than Q3 FY25's 6.0%. Annual operating margin did step from 5.8% (FY23) to 10.0% (FY26), which is real, but a chunk of that reflects the 2023 impairment/goodwill hit ($265M loss) rolling off the base rather than durable operational leverage.

The balance sheet deserves more attention than any prior model gave it. $2.60B debt against $1.51B equity (D/E 1.72) and only $500M cash on a company generating ~$415M in net income is meaningful leverage for an EPC/services hybrid with lumpy cash conversion. The Market Forces model's cash-quality flag is the single most important signal in this file and the Synthesis verdict essentially ignores it — you cannot call a stock "undervalued by 45%" via DCF when operating and free cash flow lines are literally blank in the data. The $42M capex is trivially low, which is either a services-mix story (plausible) or a sign of underinvestment. Insider buying in May 2026 (~30K shares across four separate P-purchases) is a genuinely bullish tell — these aren't option exercises, they're open-market buys at prices presumably near current levels, and insider *purchases* at KBR have historically been rare.

The prior models contradict each other in ways worth naming. Synthesis says "$53.80 fair value, growth is free"; Market Forces says EPS forecasts are 30-40% too optimistic; Thesis Evaluation lands at -1 (dead neutral); Narrative calls the discount fundamentally-justified, not a mispricing. That's not a coherent stack — it's three models disagreeing, and the Synthesis number is the outlier. The 11.6x P/E and 7.3x EV/EBITDA are cheap versus Jacobs (~20x) and Fluor (~18x), but KBR's ROE of 27% is inflated by leverage (ROA is only 6.3%, ROIC 16%) and its government services book, while sticky, is not growing fast enough to justify a re-rating absent a specific catalyst. A contrarian would argue: if this were truly a government-services compounder trading at EPC multiples, revenue would be *accelerating*, not printing four straight down quarters. The most likely explanation for the discount is that the market has correctly identified a business whose Sustainment Solutions government growth is being offset by Mission Technology / legacy energy softness, netting to ~1% organic growth.

I dissent partially from the synthesis $53.80 fair value — that number requires believing in both margin durability and a growth re-acceleration, neither of which the trailing four quarters support. But I also dissent from calling this a value trap: the insider buying cluster, the 11.6x P/E floor, the 1.8% dividend yield with a 20% payout ratio (huge room to grow), and the government services mix shift are real. Fair value on trailing FY26 EPS of ~$3.10 at a defensible 14-15x (mid-way between EPC and government services multiples) is $43-47, not $54. At $37 you're getting maybe 15-25% upside plus a dividend, not 45%. The thesis pivots entirely on the next two quarters: if Q2/Q3 FY26 revenue re-accelerates above $2.0B and margins hold 6%+, the re-rating case is live; if the sequential decline continues and FCF quality remains opaque, this drifts to $32-34. The right posture is a starter position sized for asymmetry, not a full-conviction long, and definitely not the table-pounder the Synthesis 45% upside implies.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-03 17:16:27
Verdict Undervalued at $37.11 — the market is pricing KBR like a stagnating contractor, but current earnings power supports a value in the low-to-mid $40s even before any further mix improvement.

What stands out to me is that KBR is being valued like a no-growth, somewhat messy contractor even though the last two annual periods show a real earnings reset upward. Revenue moved from $6.56B in 2022 to $7.71B in 2025 and $7.79B in 2026, so top-line growth has slowed sharply lately, but profitability improved much faster: operating income rose from $343M in 2022 to $659M in 2025 and $778M in 2026, while net income climbed from $190M to $375M to $415M. On the latest annual numbers, that is a 10.0% operating margin and 5.3% net margin on a business the market still prices at just 0.61x sales, 7.3x EV/EBITDA, and 11.6x earnings. For an industrial services name generating 27.5% ROE and 16.1% ROIC, that multiple is not demanding. The quarterlies reinforce the idea that this is now a steadier earner than the market admits: over the last eight quarters, revenue has sat in a narrow $1.85B-$2.11B range while net margins were mostly 5%-6%, aside from two weaker quarters at 3.6%-3.7%. That looks more like a maturing, better-mixed services business than a collapsing EPC story.

The key issue is whether the flatlining revenue in recent quarters means the earnings improvement has run its course. I do not think so, at least not at $37.11. The most recent quarter posted $1.92B of revenue and $102M of net income, versus $1.85B and $106M in the year-ago quarter; that is only 1% recent revenue growth on the supplied momentum data, but 10.7% earnings growth. The prior four quarters sum to roughly $7.76B of revenue and $401M of net income, essentially in line with the latest annual run rate, so there is no sign of an earnings cliff. Meanwhile, the balance sheet is leveraged but not distressed: $2.60B of debt against $500M of cash is meaningful, yet set against $778M of operating income and a 1.215 current ratio it looks manageable. If this were a deteriorating contractor with unstable margins, I would want a single-digit P/E. But if the business can hold around $400M+ of annual earnings, today’s market cap of $4.68B implies the market is paying a modest price for a company that has already demonstrated margin repair.

The strongest argument against this read is that the market may be correctly focusing on what is missing: cash flow proof and durable growth. We are not given operating cash flow or free cash flow, and the secondary signal explicitly calls cash flow quality weak. In this industry, reported earnings without cash conversion can be a trap because working capital, claims, and contract timing can flatter income statements for years before reversing. The 2023 net loss of -$265M also tells you this is not a pristine compounder; there is embedded project, integration, or other one-off risk in the model. Add debt-to-equity of 1.72x and price-to-book of 3.17x, and the stock is not statistically cheap if the true earnings power is lower than reported. On the operating side, quarterly revenue has actually drifted down from $2.11B in early 2025 to $1.89B-$1.92B lately, so one can argue KBR has already harvested the easy margin gains while organic demand is stalling. If that is the setup, then 11.6x earnings is fair, not cheap.

I weigh those objections seriously, but I still come out constructive because the current price already discounts a lot of imperfection. The stock is not being valued like a high-confidence grower; it is being valued like a business whose 2026 earnings are at risk of retracing. Yet the available data do not show that retracement happening. Instead, they show annual revenue stability around $7.7B-$7.8B, annual net income stepping up from $375M to $415M, and quarter-level profitability mostly holding in the 5%-6% range. Insider buying in May 2026—14,500 shares, 8,375 shares, 4,000 shares, and 3,000 shares across several transactions—also matters more here than token compensation awards, because it suggests informed confidence after the drawdown rather than passive optics. For me, fair value is not the $53-$55 range the model spits out by formula so much as a more conservative low-to-mid $40s based on sustaining roughly $400M of earnings at 13x-14x, which is still only a moderate re-rating for a company with KBR’s current margins and returns.

What would change my mind is straightforward. I would get more bullish if KBR can show two things simultaneously over the next few quarters: revenue returning to at least the $2.0B quarterly level and net income staying above $100M per quarter, which would confirm that margin gains are not just offsetting a shrinking base. I would turn bearish if margins slip back toward the 3.5%-4.0% quarters seen in early and mid-2025, or if whatever cash flow disclosure comes next shows that the $415M of annual net income is not converting into meaningful cash after working capital. At $37, I think the burden of proof is lower for the bull than the bear.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-03 17:17:10
Verdict Undervalued at $37 vs $50-55 fair value; 11.6x P/E and 10% op. margin ignore mix repair despite legitimate FCF doubts

KBR’s income statement shows a company that has already executed the hard part of a turnaround and is being priced as if none of it happened. Operating income climbed from $448 million in 2023 to $659 million and then $778 million in fiscal 2026 on essentially flat revenue ($7.71 billion to $7.79 billion), pushing operating margin to 10% and net income to $415 million. ROE of 27.5% and ROIC of 16.1% are the returns of a competent capital allocator, not a melting EPC franchise. At $37.11 the stock clears only 11.6x earnings and 7.3x EV/EBITDA with a 0.61x sales multiple—levels that embed perpetual low-single-digit decline. Quarterly run-rate has settled in the $1.89–1.95 billion band after an earlier $2.11 billion print, so top-line growth is negligible (1% recent YoY, 5.8% CAGR), yet net margins have stabilized in the mid-5% range after the noisy 3.6–3.7% quarters. The May 2026 open-market purchases (roughly 30 000 shares across four tickets) are the cleanest signal that insiders see the same disconnect.

The valuation work that lands near $54 is directionally right; even a zero-growth capitalization of the current $415 million earnings base clears well above the current quote once a modest services multiple is applied. The market is still anchored to the 2023 $265 million loss and the legacy energy tag, refusing to underwrite the mix shift toward government and defense work that is already visible in the margin expansion. That skepticism is rational only if the earnings are illusory.

The sharpest bear case is exactly that illusion: free-cash-flow figures are absent from the briefing and every quality overlay flags weak conversion. In project businesses, retainage, mobilization timing and percentage-of-completion accounting can manufacture GAAP profits that never become cash; if the “temporary working-capital” defense is wrong, the entire earnings recovery is suspect. Leverage compounds the risk—$2.60 billion of debt against $500 million of cash and $1.51 billion of equity leaves a 1.72 debt-to-equity ratio with little cushion if government receipts slow or a large project goes sideways. Revenue deceleration and the near-zero thesis score (-1) correctly highlight that the market is not being irrationally pessimistic; it is simply refusing to pay for earnings that have not yet proved they convert.

I still come down undervalued because four years of rising operating profit, mid-teens ROIC and clustered insider buying are harder to dismiss than a single missing FCF line at 11.6x earnings. The cash-conversion overhang caps conviction, but it does not justify a 30-plus percent discount to even conservative intrinsic value.

Two clean quarters of FCF conversion above 80% of net income would remove the central objection and raise conviction sharply; a drop back below 4% net margins or quarterly revenue sustainably under $1.8 billion would confirm structural decay and flip the stance to overvalued.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 7.7; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 7.0
undervalued · conviction 2/5 · Δ -0.7 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.3 vs panel · self: 7.0
Second-round check hasn't run yet for this ticker — it runs after all three seats on the next report.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · four lenses
Four separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), and AI Impact (how the AI wave reshapes it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-03 17:59:31
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality-and-cheap but hated - starter now, scale on weakness 6/10
KBR is a modestly cheap, genuinely improved contractor stuck in a fallen-angel tape - own it small now, get greedy under $34.
The cruxWhether the 2026 FCF collapse to -$42M is a one-off working-capital blip or the start of a project-charge cycle - that single question decides if the DCF/EPV $49 anchor holds.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from KBR's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwayRunway Unclear
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+23
Solid
edge √Σ 118 · risk √Σ 95 · conf 7/10

KBR shows a genuine multi-year operational improvement: revenue $7.34B (2021) to $7.79B (2026), gross margin 11% to 14.8%, operating margin 3.1% to 10%, and net income from $18M to $415M. Earnings quality is clean - accruals -5% of assets and OCF/NI at 4.38x indicate reported profits are backed (and exceeded) by cash. Diluted share count fell from 156M (2022) to 129M (2026), a -2.9% CAGR - management is concentrating per-share value, not diluting it.

Strengths 4
m70
Sustained margin expansion
Operating margin tripled from 3.1% (2021) to 10% (2026) while revenue grew modestly - real operating leverage, not just mix.
m60
Share count actually shrinking
Diluted shares fell 156M to 129M (-17% over the window); management is a net buyer, protecting per-share value.
m55
Clean earnings quality
Accruals -5% of assets and OCF/NI 4.38x (cumulative) suggest earnings are cash-backed with no mechanical red flags.
m50
Cluster of insider open-market buys
Four P-purchases in May 2026 totaling ~$945K by multiple insiders (Sabater, Moore, Evans, Von Thaer) - directional conviction, zero sales.
Concerns 4
m65
Leveraged balance sheet
Net debt $2.10B vs $500M liquid cash; Altman Z 2.55 (grey zone). Balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion, in a cyclical E&C business.
m55
FCF broke down in 2026
FCF swung from +$410M (2025) to -$42M (2026) even as net income hit a record $415M - a working-capital or project-billing issue that needs explanation.
m35
2023 net loss reminder of volatility
Reported a -$265M net loss in 2023 despite $251M FCF - E&C project charges can whip earnings; durability of the current 10% op margin is unproven through a cycle.
m25
Gross margin still thin
14.8% GM ceiling reflects a services/contracting business - limited pricing power relative to asset-light software or franchise models.
This looks like a mature contractor that has genuinely re-rated its operations - margins have expanded steadily, share count is falling, earnings are cash-backed cumulatively, and insiders just put nearly a million dollars of their own money in across four unrelated buys. That is a real signal. But I cannot call it 'strong' because $2.1B of net debt in a lumpy E&C business is a real constraint, the 2023 loss shows how quickly project charges can bite, and the 2026 FCF collapse to negative while earnings hit a record is exactly the kind of divergence a forensic lens should flag. Solid, improving, not yet fortress.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • What drove FCF from +$410M to -$42M in 2026 - working capital, project billings, or one-off cash tax/settlement?
  • Debt maturity ladder and covenants on the $2.6B gross debt - refinancing exposure
  • Nature of the 2023 net loss (project write-down, goodwill, legal) - is it truly non-recurring?
  • Government/defense vs. sustainable-tech segment mix and customer concentration
  • Backlog quality and fixed-price vs. cost-reimbursable contract mix - margin durability
Valuation / Mispricing
+32
Modestly Cheap
edge √Σ 82 · risk √Σ 49 · conf 6/10
Price $37.11 vs skeptical deserved value ~$49 - roughly 24% discount, a modest but real margin of safety. attractive below $34.00

The e2e composite FV of $55 and signal-adjusted $54 imply 45% upside, but the anchored-PE input at $73 is doing a lot of the lifting and looks aggressive for a lumpy E&C name with $2.1B net debt. Stripping that out, the DCF ($49.35) and EPV floor ($48.92) cluster tightly in the high-$40s, which is a more defensible deserved value. Against $37.11, that is roughly 30% upside to a conservative anchor, or a ~24% margin of safety - meaningful but not extraordinary.

Cheap signals 3
m62
DCF and EPV converge in high-$40s
Two independent methods (DCF $49.35, EPV $48.92) both land ~30% above the $37.11 price, suggesting the discount is not method-dependent.
m45
Quality-adjusted deserved value supports a premium to price
Company-quality lens grades KBR Solid with clean earnings quality, steady margin expansion, buybacks, and insider buying - this raises deserved value toward the DCF/EPV cluster rather than below it.
m30
Fallen-angel setup with real government/defense mix
Bear case (terminal energy decline, thin-margin gov work) is at least partly reflected in the derating; if the sticky government book carries the mix, the discount is unwarranted.
Rich / priced-in 2
m40
Anchored-PE at $72.82 is not credible
That input implies ~95% upside and inflates the composite FV to $55. For a leveraged E&C with cyclical energy exposure, an earnings-multiple anchor near peer-best is heroic; discount it heavily.
m28
Balance sheet limits the discount you can claim
$2.1B net debt on a $4.7B market cap means enterprise value already prices in a chunk of the business - the equity discount narrows once leverage is respected.
This is modestly cheap, not deeply cheap. The honest deserved value is the DCF/EPV cluster around $49, not the $55 composite that a runaway PE anchor is puffing up. At $37 I get maybe 24% margin of safety on a leveraged, lumpy E&C name - decent, worth owning small, but not a fat-pitch. I would get more interested under $34 where the margin widens to a third and the balance sheet risk is genuinely paid for.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Government/defense segment margin trend and backlog duration in latest 10-Q
  • Energy segment run-off pace and any impairment risk
  • FCF conversion vs GAAP earnings over trailing 4 quarters
  • Net debt trajectory and covenant headroom
  • Guidance updates that would validate or break the DCF assumptions
General Sentiment
-52
Headwind
tail √Σ 39 · head √Σ 97 · conf 6/10

The market tape is mildly constructive (neutral-plus, VIX 16, S&P near highs), but that risk-on lift barely reaches KBR: beta 0.45 mutes any macro tailwind, and the active narrative on this name is a fragile fallen-angel story with minimal intensity and low cult following. There is no bull thesis buoying the stock; the discount to intrinsic value is being read by the tape as deserved rather than as an opportunity, which is textbook value-trap sentiment. Fresh Q2 coverage explicitly frames the print as 'margin compression' despite a strong backlog and spin-off optionality, and a syndicated 'profitable stocks with warning signs' piece dropped KBR into a negative screen list, both of which reinforce the skepticism rather than crack it. Analyst tone on the tape is cautious, and with the story labeled fragile and durability weak, there is no narrative engine to pull shares out of the malaise. Add rising leverage (D/E 1.31 to 1.72) as a talking point bears will keep citing, and the net non-fundamental pressure leans negative even in a benign market.

Tailwinds 2
m30
Low beta mutes macro risk
At 0.45 beta in a neutral-to-positive tape, KBR is insulated from broader volatility - the macro backdrop is not actively hurting it even if it is not helping much either.
m25
Spin-off optionality lurking
The Q2 coverage flags spin-off plans, a latent catalyst that could eventually crack the conglomerate-discount narrative if management leans in.
Headwinds 5
m55
Fallen-angel narrative with no bull story
Intensity minimal, durability fragile, cult low - there is no active buyer narrative to defend the stock, so any bad headline drops straight through with nothing to catch it.
m60
Fresh 'margin compression' framing on Q2
The most recent deep-dive explicitly leads with margin compression rather than the backlog or spin-off, cementing the value-trap read for anyone scanning post-print coverage.
m35
Negative screen inclusion
Being tagged in a 'profitable stocks with warning signs' piece is exactly the low-grade drip of negative sentiment that keeps a fallen-angel name from re-rating.
m30
Sector conflation with old-guard energy EPC
The market keeps grouping KBR with declining oil and gas engineering firms rather than defense/government services, which is a persistent narrative headwind on multiple.
m25
Rising leverage talking point
D/E moving from 1.31 to 1.72 gives bears an easy ongoing critique that reinforces the structural-decline framing.
Net pressure leans negative but not violently so. This is a name where the narrative is quietly rotting rather than actively collapsing - no cult, no bull thesis, and the freshest headline is literally 'margin compression.' The low beta is the only real cushion; the benign macro tape isn't doing KBR any favors because there's no story for it to amplify. Until the spin-off gets a hard date or defense wins force a re-segmentation, this trades like a fallen angel that the market has stopped bothering to argue about - a persistent, ordinary headwind.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether management accelerates or clarifies the spin-off timeline - a firm date would give the stock a narrative to trade on
  • Any government/defense contract wins large enough to force analysts to re-segment KBR away from energy EPC peers
  • Sell-side target revisions post-Q2 - are cuts stacking or is anyone defending the margin trajectory
  • Sector rotation into defense services (a peer like Leidos or SAIC running) that could drag KBR up by association
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
AI Impact
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The structural effect of the AI wave on this specific business over the next ~5 years — demand, cost leverage, moat, barriers to entry, position in the AI stack. The reality beneath the AI story, not the story's market pressure (General Sentiment owns that) — and not a call on the business today or the price.
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Four lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and AI Impact (structural ~5yr AI exposure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · twelvedata
v1.1.530 · 761561a2 · 2026-08-12 19:06:35