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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
21 days ago · 100% complete
These price targets were computed from last year's numbers — and this year is going noticeably worse. Projection assumes +36.5% growth but recent quarters show operating income -58.8% YoY (through 2026-06-30) — annual-baselined fair values are likely stale-high. Until the statements catch up, read the growth-based fair values (DCF, anchored) as a best case, not a target; the EPV floor (worth with zero growth assumed) and the current market price are the trustworthy numbers right now.
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 16 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Limbach Holdings Inc. (LMB) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -1 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 51 · Value -43 · Sentiment -28 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $63.21 vs $71.70 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Limbach Holdings Inc.

LMB NASDAQ
Industrials · Building Products & Equipment
Warrendale, PA 15086, United States limbachinc.com Updated Aug 2, 1:43pm
Price
$71.70
Market Cap
$854.7M
Employees
1,400
Beta
1.42
Avg Volume
197,201
CEO
Mr. Michael M. McCann

Limbach Holdings Inc. is a commercial specialty contractor providing building systems solutions focused on mission-critical mechanical, electrical, plumbing, and building controls infrastructure. The company delivers services for the design and construction of new and renovated buildings, including maintenance, energy retrofits, and equipment upgrades. It operates through two primary segments: General Contractor Relationships, which handles new construction or renovation projects primarily involving HVAC, plumbing, or electrical services; and Owner Direct Relationships, which offers maintenance and services on HVAC, plumbing, electrical systems, building controls, and specialty contracting projects, representing the majority of its revenue. Limbach Holdings Inc. serves key vertical markets such as healthcare, industrial and manufacturing, data centers, life sciences, higher education, and cultural and entertainment facilities. With approximately 1,700 team members across 21 offices, it emphasizes expanding owner-direct relationships and national customer solutions. Founded in 1901 and headquartered in Warrendale, Pennsylvania, Limbach Holdings Inc. plays a vital role in supporting essential infrastructure for critical building operations nationwide.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 1:54pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$71.70
as of Aug 2, 2:02pm (21d ago)
Change · Aug 2
+1.80 (+2.58%)
Day Range
$70.07 – $73.06
52-Week Range
$65.08 – $141.18
50-Day MA
$77.22
200-Day MA
$81.87
Volume
174,600.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 21d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 11,921,067.00
Float 11,263,739.00
Free Float 94.5%
High free float — 94.5% of shares trade freely, ~5.5% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:53pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
22.20
Stock Price: $71.70
EPS (Diluted): 3.23
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.43
Stock Price: $71.70
Total Equity: $195.66M
Shares: 12,079,583
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
12.55
Market Cap: $854.74M
Total Debt: $5.03M
Cash: $11.35M
EBITDA: $67.59M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$848.4M
Market Cap: $854.74M
Total Debt: $5.03M
Cash: $11.35M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
26.2%
Gross Profit: $169.31M
Revenue: $646.80M
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
7.6%
Operating Income: $49.45M
Revenue: $646.80M
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
6.0%
Net Income: $39.06M
Revenue: $646.80M
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
20.0%
Net Income: $39.06M
Total Equity: $195.66M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
21.0%
Operating Income: $49.45M
Tax Rate: 19.7%
Equity: $195.66M
Total Debt: $5.03M
Cash: $11.35M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.44
Current Assets: $195.05M
Current Liabilities: $135.09M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.03
Short-Term Debt: $5.03M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $5.03M
Total Equity: $195.66M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$53.55
Revenue: $646.80M
Shares: 12,079,583
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$16.20
Total Equity: $195.66M
Shares: 12,079,583
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$3.47
Operating CF: $45.70M
CapEx: -$3.81M
Shares: 12,079,583
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
Last Dividend: $0.00
Stock Price: $71.70
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $39.06M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 1:53pm
Compares LMB against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $490.4M $496.8M $516.4M $518.8M $646.8M
Cost of Revenue $404.4M $403.0M $397.1M $374.5M $477.5M
Gross Profit $85.9M $93.7M $119.3M $144.3M $169.3M
Operating Expenses $71.9M $81.7M $90.0M $105.7M $119.9M
Operating Income $14.0M $12.0M $29.3M $38.6M $49.5M
Net Income $6.7M $6.8M $20.8M $30.9M $39.1M
EBITDA $19.9M $20.2M $37.5M $50.5M $67.6M
EPS $0.67 $0.65 $1.93 $2.75 $3.37
EPS (Diluted) $0.66 $0.64 $1.76 $2.57 $3.23
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:43pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $14.5M $36.0M $59.8M $44.9M $11.3M
Total Current Assets $192.9M $226.0M $217.0M $220.3M $195.0M
Total Assets $267.5M $294.6M $304.4M $352.1M $381.1M
Current Liabilities $129.7M $159.1M $145.1M $151.0M $135.1M
Long-Term Debt $29.8M
Total Liabilities $179.7M $199.1M $183.5M $198.6M $185.5M
Total Equity $87.8M $95.4M $120.9M $153.5M $195.7M
Retained Earnings $2.8M $9.6M $30.4M $61.3M $100.3M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$24.2M $35.4M $57.4M $36.8M $45.7M
Capital Expenditure $-791,000 $-993,000 -$2.3M -$7.5M -$3.8M
Free Cash Flow -$25.0M $34.4M $55.1M $29.3M $41.9M
Acquisitions (net) -$19.0M $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid)
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 -$2.0M $0 $0
Net Change in Cash -$27.7M $21.5M $23.8M -$14.9M -$33.6M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:07pm (21d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +1.3% +3.9% +0.5% +24.7%
Gross Profit Growth +9.1% +27.3% +20.9% +17.4%
Operating Income Growth -14.2% +143.8% +31.9% +28.0%
Net Income Growth +1.3% +205.3% +48.8% +26.5%
EBITDA Growth +1.2% +86.1% +34.6% +33.8%
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 09:03
-0.1 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 7% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 84%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($71.70)
Bull — recovery +23% 9.2% $66.33 -7%
Base — stabilizes +15% 8.0% $46.45 -35%
Bear — keeps slipping +8% 6.8% $31.69 -56%
Stress — last quarter repeats +4% 2.2% $11.38 -84%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2026-03-31) — growth stays at 4.3% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.50). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +13.4% · operating income -54.8% · net income -49.2% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Mar 31, 2026 (revenue +4.3%, operating income -85.7% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for LMB — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 14:06:07
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly rich at $71.70 — Q1 2026's margin collapse to 3.2% undermines the synthesis $82 target; fair value $60-70 pending Q2 confirmation, insider selling says don't front-run the recovery.

Looking at the raw quarterlies first: Q1 2026 revenue of $138.9M is up only 4.4% YoY vs Q1 2025's $133.1M — a stark deceleration from the 24.7% full-year 2025 growth rate the models keep citing. More alarming, Q1 2026 net margin collapsed to 3.2% from 7.7% in Q1 2025, and net income halved from $10.2M to $4.4M. That's not a rounding-error miss; that's the first data point suggesting the 2025 margin expansion may indeed be peak-cycle. The synthesis verdict of "slight upside" to $82 leans on trailing metrics (22x P/E on $39.1M NI) that a Q1 print like this could unwind quickly — if 2026 NI reverts to ~$25-28M, we're looking at 30-34x forward P/E, not 22x.

The five-year trajectory is genuinely impressive: revenue $490M→$647M (32% cumulative, 5.7% CAGR — not the 11.9% cited, which appears to weight the recent surge), but operating income $14M→$49.5M (3.5x) and net income $6.7M→$39.1M (5.8x). This IS a mix-shift story (Owner Direct services replacing lower-margin GCR work), and gross margin genuinely expanded from 17.5% to 26.2%. That's real structural improvement, not just cyclical froth. Balance sheet is pristine — $5M debt against $196M equity, 20% ROIC, $42M FCF. This is not a distressed cyclical; it's a well-run niche contractor that has re-engineered its business mix. The mature_earner classification is correct.

Where I dissent from the synthesis: the "$82 signal-adjusted fair value" feels like model overreach given the Q1 2026 warning shot and the aggressive insider selling clustered in April-June 2026 (five sales in two months, no offsetting buys, just a single 403-share award). Insiders selling into weakness after a 49% drawdown from highs is the tell — they don't see the retracement as a gift. Market Forces is closer to right than Synthesis here. On the other hand, Market Forces overstates the case: FCF quality tag says "Strong," and the -12.8% FCF CAGR reflects working capital normalization from a low base, not deterioration. Both models can't be right; I side with Market Forces on caution but reject the "unsustainable" framing.

The contrarian case that nobody is making: if Q1 2026 margin compression is one-time (project mix, weather, a large low-margin job burning off), then Q2-Q4 revert to 5-7% net margin, 2026 NI lands around $35-40M, and $72 at ~20x is fair-to-cheap for a debt-free 20% ROIC compounder with a genuine mix-shift story. The bull case survives one bad quarter. But you don't get to bet on that without seeing Q2. Fair value on my read is $60-70 assuming margin normalization to 5.5% (below 2025's 6% but above Q1 2026's 3.2%), with $80+ only justified if the Owner Direct mix continues expanding and Q1 was noise. The 22x P/E is not egregious for the quality but leaves no room for the deceleration the Q1 print hints at. Insider behavior tilts me bearish on the near-term; balance sheet and business quality prevent an outright short thesis. Wait for Q2.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 14:06:24
Verdict Undervalued at $71.7 — the market is still pricing Limbach like a cyclical contractor despite a structurally improved margin profile, net-cash balance sheet, and ~$35M-$40M earnings power; fair value is closer to $82-$90.

What stands out is how real the operating improvement is, and how easy it would be to dismiss it as just a late-cycle contractor blip. Revenue went from $490.4M in 2021 to $646.8M in 2025, only a 7% annualized pace, but operating income went from $14.0M to $49.5M and net income from $6.7M to $39.1M. That is not mere volume leverage; it is a business that has materially repriced its work, improved mix, or both. Gross margin expanded from 17.5% in 2021 to 26.2% in 2025, operating margin from 2.9% to 7.7%, and net margin from 1.4% to 6.0%. Those are huge changes for a mechanical/electrical building systems contractor. Just as important, the balance sheet says the earnings are not a mirage: with only $5.0M of debt against $11.3M of cash, Limbach is effectively net cash, while 2025 operating cash flow of $45.7M and free cash flow of $41.9M both exceeded net income. On an $850M market cap, that is roughly a 4.9% FCF yield for a business compounding earnings much faster than revenue and posting ~20% ROE and ROIC. For a company this asset-light and this de-levered, 22x trailing earnings is not demanding.

The quarterly pattern also reads better than the “decelerating” label implies. Q1 2026 revenue of $138.9M was up 4.4% from $133.1M a year earlier, and net income fell from $10.2M to $4.4M, which looks ugly in isolation. But that quarter sits against a very strong 2025 run in which revenue stepped from $133.1M in Q1 to $186.9M in Q4 and quarterly net margins ranged from 4.8% to 7.7%. TTM through Q1 2026, revenue is about $652.6M and net income about $33.3M, so the business has not collapsed; it has simply come off a high-margin quarter comp. The stock at $71.7 values that TTM earnings stream closer to 25-26x, which is less cheap than the annual P/E suggests, but still not excessive for a net-cash compounder that has tripled net income in three years. The key thing I see is that the market is still treating Limbach like a low-quality cyclical contractor when the data increasingly say it is a better, more resilient operator than that category normally deserves.

The strongest argument against this view is that the market may be right to punish the stock because peak margins are already behind it. Q1 2026 net margin was only 3.2%, versus 7.7% in Q1 2025, and revenue growth slowed from the 24.7% recent annual pace to low single digits. If the 2024-2025 profitability reflected unusually favorable project closeouts, pricing catch-up, or temporary mix in owner-direct higher-margin work, then 2025’s $39.1M of net income is not the base; maybe $25M-$30M is. On that normalized earnings power, the stock is not cheap at all. Add in the insider selling cluster in April through June 2026 and you have a credible warning sign: people closest to the story were not buying after the drawdown. For a company serving commercial buildings, the macro bear case is also straightforward. A contractor tied to office, healthcare, higher ed, and retrofit work can look structurally improved right until backlog rolls over and competition re-bids margins down.

I weigh those risks differently because the financial structure gives management room to absorb a softer cycle without equity damage, and because the margin gains are too large and too sustained to dismiss as one-quarter noise. This is now four straight annual years of gross margin expansion, from 18.9% in 2022 to 23.1% in 2023 to 27.8% in 2024 and 26.2% in 2025, alongside net income rising from $6.8M to $20.8M to $30.9M to $39.1M. Even if earnings settle below the 2025 peak, the stock does not need heroic assumptions: at 20x a more conservative $35M earnings base, equity value is about $700M; at 22x-$24x $38M-$40M, value is $836M-$960M before even crediting the net cash position. That brackets today’s $850M cap around fair value to modest upside, not bubble territory. I do not buy the idea that this deserves to trade like a commodity contractor with a stressed balance sheet and unreliable cash conversion, because the numbers show the opposite.

What would change my mind is not another narrative debate about CRE but evidence that earnings normalization is sharper than I expect. If the next two quarters fail to regain at least mid-single-digit net margins, or if TTM operating cash flow drops materially below net income while revenue stays flat around the $650M run-rate, then I would assume the 2024-2025 margin structure was temporary and move to a bear stance. Conversely, if Limbach can print another year around $650M-$700M of revenue with operating margin holding above 7% and FCF staying north of $35M, then the current price will look too low and a valuation in the mid-$80s to low-$90s would be justified.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 14:07:03
Verdict Fairly valued near $72 with modest upside to mid-$80s only if Q1 margin collapse proves transitory; quality compounder, not a bargain.

The numbers tell a clear multi-year transformation story that the market is only partially crediting. Limbach went from a sub-scale contractor earning $6.7M on $490M revenue in 2021 to $39.1M net income on $646.8M in 2025, with gross margin expanding from roughly 17.5% to 26.2% and operating margin more than doubling to 7.7%. The 2025 step-up is the standout: revenue jumped 24.7% after four years of near-stagnation around $500M, while free cash flow hit $41.9M on just $3.8M of capex and a balance sheet carrying only $5.0M of debt against $195.7M of equity. ROE of 20% and ROIC of 21% are elite for a specialty contractor, and the 5% FCF yield at a $0.85B market cap is not expensive if the new earnings base holds. At 22x trailing earnings and 12.6x EV/EBITDA, the multiple is pricing a mature industrial, not a business that just compounded earnings at 37% CAGR.

What gives me pause inside the same dataset is the sharp Q1 2026 air pocket: revenue of $138.9M was only modestly ahead of the prior-year $133.1M, but net margin collapsed from 7.7% to 3.2% and net income halved to $4.4M. That is not normal seasonality when the year-ago first quarter was the high-water mark for profitability. Layer on the dense cluster of insider sales through April–June 2026 and a negative FCF CAGR of –12.8% over the longer window, and the recent acceleration starts to look more fragile. The rule-based “mature earner” label and the 11.9% revenue CAGR are accurate descriptions of the trailing five years, yet they paper over how much of the 2025 print was a single-year volume and mix surge that may already be fading.

The strongest case against my constructive lean is straightforward: this is still a thin-margin, project-cyclical building-systems contractor exposed to commercial real estate, and the market’s skepticism (reflected in the stock sitting ~15% below the signal-adjusted fair-value estimate of $82) is rational. A smart opponent would cite the Q1 margin reset, the decelerating quarterly revenue trend flag, heavy insider distribution, and the fact that net margins of 6% leave little room for bid compression or labor inflation before the 22x multiple looks rich. They would also note that EV/revenue of 1.3x embeds continued growth that Owner-Direct maintenance and energy-retrofit tailwinds have not yet proven durable enough to deliver. I weigh those risks as real but already visible in the price; the fortress balance sheet (debt-to-equity 0.03, current ratio 1.44) and the multi-year gross-margin structural lift give the company more downside protection than a typical contractor at this multiple.

I would flip to a clear undervalued call if the next two quarters restore net margins above 5.5% while revenue holds mid-teens growth, confirming Q1 was a one-off mix or weather issue rather than the start of mean reversion. Conversely, another sub-4% margin quarter or any material backlog deterioration would push me to overvalued at $72.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 6.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 8.0
undervalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.0 vs panel · self: 7.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 22:11:35
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Real business improvement is already in the price at $71.70 — this is a wait-for-the-dip name, not a buy-now name.
The cruxWhether Q1's margin wobble was a one-quarter blip or the start of the ODR mix-shift stalling — that single question decides if fair value is $60 or $85.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from LMB's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+51
Strong
edge √Σ 122 · risk √Σ 65 · conf 7/10

Limbach shows a striking multi-year improvement: gross margin expanded from 17.5% in 2021 to 26.2% in 2025, operating margin from 2.9% to 7.6%, and net income from $6.7M to $39.1M on revenue that jumped from $490M to $647M (25% growth in 2025 alone). This is a real mix shift, presumably toward owner-direct work, showing up in the P&L. Earnings quality checks corroborate the story: accruals -2.7% of assets, OCF/NI 1.34x, Beneish M -2.23, Altman Z 5.45 (safe). FCF of $41.9M against $39.1M net income confirms the earnings are cash-backed. Balance sheet is net cash ($6.3M), and the business self-funds. The concerns are secondary but real. Diluted share count grew from 10.2M to 12.1M (4.2% CAGR), with buybacks recovering only 8.7% of SBC - per-share value creation is being taxed. Insider activity is one-sided: 18 sells for $2.7M, zero buys in twelve months, with CFO Brooks the most active seller. On a mature-earner with improving fundamentals, insider distribution is not disqualifying but signals no one internally is stepping up to accumulate. Cash on balance sheet is thin at $11.3M (1.3% of market cap), which is fine given FCF but leaves little cushion if working capital swings hit.

Strengths 4
m75
Genuine margin transformation
Gross margin up ~1030 bps (17.5% to 26.2%) and operating margin from 2.9% to 7.6% over four years - not a one-off, a step-change in business mix.
m65
Earnings are cash-backed
OCF/NI of 1.34x, negative accruals (-2.7% of assets), Beneish M of -2.23, Altman Z of 5.45 - mechanical integrity checks are clean across the board.
m55
Self-funding with net cash
FCF of $41.9M/yr on a net cash position of $6.3M - the business does not depend on capital markets.
m45
Revenue re-acceleration
Top line jumped from $518.8M to $646.8M in 2025 (24.7% growth) after two flattish years, suggesting the strategic pivot is scaling.
Concerns 3
m45
Persistent dilution with token buybacks
Diluted shares up 4.2%/yr (10.2M to 12.1M); buybacks offset only 8.7% of SBC. Per-share compounding is being consistently taxed by issuance.
m40
One-sided insider distribution
18 sales totaling $2.73M with zero open-market buys in 12 months; CFO Brooks the dominant seller across multiple months - no internal accumulation.
m25
Thin cash buffer
Only $11.3M liquid cash (1.3% of market cap) - fine given cash generation, but leaves little margin for working-capital shocks in a project-based business.
This is a legitimately improving business - the margin curve is not accounting fiction, the cash conversion supports it, and the balance sheet is clean. What holds me back from calling it a 'Fortress' or even solidly at 75 is that the transformation is young (really 2023 onward), the dilution machine is quietly running in the background eating into per-share economics, and insiders are net distributors of stock rather than accumulators. It's a Strong industrial services compounder-in-the-making with the caveat that the compounding is happening at the enterprise level, not necessarily per share.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Owner-direct vs GC-relationship revenue mix trajectory in the 10-K - is the margin gain structural?
  • Customer concentration - project-based industrials can carry hidden top-10 risk
  • SBC structure and vesting schedule driving the 4.2% share growth
  • Working capital dynamics: receivables/contract-asset trends behind the FCF drop from $55.1M in 2023 to $29.3M in 2024
  • Acquisition contribution vs organic in 2025's 24.7% revenue jump
  • Reason for CFO's concentrated 2026 selling program (10b5-1 plan?)
Valuation / Mispricing
-43
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 36 · risk √Σ 82 · conf 6/10
Price $71.70 vs composite deserved ~$74 - roughly 3% gap, inside noise; signal-adjusted $82 gives ~15% but leans on the anchored-PE outlier. attractive below $58.00

The composite fair value of $74.25 sits ~3.5% above the $71.70 price, and even the signal-adjusted $82.47 implies only ~15% upside - well inside the noise band for a contractor with cyclical exposure. The method spread is a warning: DCF at $70.58 essentially matches the print, EPV floor at $21.70 says without growth this business is worth a fraction of today's price, and the anchored P/E at $134.13 is a runaway output that assumes the ODR mix shift and margin expansion compound uninterrupted. Averaging these produces a tidy number but hides the fact that you are paying today for growth that must actually show up. The market is not asleep here - it already knows about the ODR pivot, the clean balance sheet, and the margin ramp.

Cheap signals 2
m20
Modest upside to composite FV
Composite $74.25 vs $71.70 print is ~3.5% - directionally cheap but well inside error bars for a small-cap contractor.
m30
Signal-adjusted FV suggests 15% upside
Signal-adjusted $82.47 implies the margin/ODR mix trajectory is worth paying up for, but this leans heavily on the anchored-PE outlier.
Rich / priced-in 4
m55
EPV floor screams no margin of safety
EPV of $21.70 is ~70% below the current price - meaning ~70% of today's cap is growth/re-rating optionality. If the ODR mix stalls, downside is severe.
m40
Anchored-PE at $134 is a runaway output
Applying peer/historical multiples to a still-young margin story generates $134.13, roughly 1.9x price - I discount this heavily; it is what is dragging the composite up.
m35
DCF essentially matches the tape
DCF of $70.58 vs $71.70 - the most disciplined method says the stock is dead-on fair, not cheap.
m30
Dilution and insider selling erode per-share value
Quality lens flags a running dilution machine and net insider distribution - both reduce deserved per-share value even as the business improves.
This is fairly valued, full stop. The DCF says fair, EPV says the price is 70% growth premium, and only the anchored-PE outlier pulls the composite above the print. A strong-but-young transformation with quiet dilution and insider selling does not earn a premium to deserved value - it earns being priced at it, which is exactly what is happening. I would want the high-50s (~20% below here) before this is a real setup; at $71.70 it is a hold-and-watch, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • ODR (Owner Direct) revenue mix and gross margin trajectory in the next 2 quarters
  • Backlog composition - GCR vs ODR - and book-to-bill
  • Share count creep and any new equity/RSU dilution guidance
  • Guidance on M&A cadence given the cash-rich balance sheet - accretive or dilutive multiples paid
General Sentiment
-28
Headwind
tail √Σ 60 · head √Σ 89 · conf 6/10

LMB sits in an awkward sentiment spot. The macro tape is only mildly constructive (regime score +22, VIX 16), but with a 1.42 beta and a small-cap industrial profile tethered to commercial real estate, the name is more exposed than the tape suggests. The prevailing narrative is a 'steady compounder' story, which is durable but low-intensity and low-cult - meaning there is no fervent buyer base to defend the stock when it wobbles. The bear framing (structural CRE decline, thin-margin cyclical contractor) is the louder, stickier story in this sector, and higher-for-longer rates (10y 4.68%, market PE 26.9) keep that overhang alive. The May 6 reaction is the tell: a Q1 beat with strong bookings met a 32.6% single-day drawdown. That is a sentiment event, not a fundamentals event - it says positioning was crowded, expectations were higher than the print, and buyers vanished on good news. Momentum has since repaired (recent 24.7% vs 11.9% long-term CAGR), but that scar changes how the next print is received: analysts and holders are now conditioned to sell strength rather than chase it. Net-net, the non-fundamental pressure leans negative: neutral macro, weak narrative intensity, a fresh sentiment wound, and CRE-narrative gravity on a high-beta small-cap. Not a strong headwind - the tape is not hostile and the story is durable - but clearly a headwind.

Tailwinds 3
m45
Durable compounder narrative
The steady-compounder framing with sticky Owner Direct recurring revenue is intact and durable, providing a floor - but intensity is minimal and cult is low, so it does not attract momentum buyers.
m35
Momentum has repaired
Recent 24.7% run vs 11.9% long-term CAGR shows dip-buyers reengaged after the May drop, blunting what could have been a much heavier tape.
m20
Neutral-positive market regime
Regime score +22 with contained VIX is a mild constructive backdrop; not helpful enough to drive LMB, but it is not a risk-off tape either.
Headwinds 4
m55
Post-earnings sentiment scar
The May 32.6% single-day drop on a beat is a pure positioning/sentiment event that lingers: it teaches holders to sell strength and makes analysts cautious about upgrading into the next print.
m45
CRE narrative overhang
The bear story - structural office decline, cyclical contractor, thin margins - is the louder sector narrative and continues to cap the multiple regardless of Limbach's Owner Direct mix.
m40
High beta into a fragile-neutral tape
Beta 1.42 and small-cap industrial status means any wobble in the S&P (already -1.6% off highs, VIX 16) hits LMB harder than the +22 regime score implies.
m35
Rates and market PE pressure
10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 keep a cap on rerating for cyclical small-caps; there is no macro liquidity impulse pulling this cohort higher.
My read: this is a modest but real headwind, not a crushing one. The business story is fine and the tape is neutral, but the May 32% gap-down on a beat is a sentiment fingerprint that does not fade in one quarter - it tells me positioning is jumpy and the marginal buyer is not committed. Layer on a high beta, a small-cap CRE-adjacent label the market still distrusts, and a compounder narrative too quiet to attract cult flows, and the non-fundamental pressure leans negative. Not enough to override quality or value work, but enough that I would expect the stock to trade heavier than its fundamentals warrant until the next print resets the sentiment tape.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Next earnings print - does the market reward or punish another beat, telling us if the May scar has healed
  • Analyst target revisions and consensus split following the recent rally
  • Any shift in the CRE/office narrative (occupancy, retrofit spend headlines) that could re-rate the whole cohort
  • Small-cap and high-beta rotation signals - if IWM leads or lags the tape
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06