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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +1 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 77 · Value -61 · Sentiment 75 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $105.42 vs $293.02 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Lam Research Corporation
LRCX NASDAQLam Research Corporation is a leading provider of semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related services. The company designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services tools used primarily in the fabrication of integrated circuits, with a strong focus on deposition and etch processes that build up and selectively remove material layers on silicon wafers. Its products are used mainly in front-end wafer processing to form transistors, capacitors, and interconnects, as well as in certain back-end wafer-level packaging applications. Lam Research serves major chipmakers worldwide, supporting production of both logic and memory devices, including DRAM and NAND. The company operates across key semiconductor manufacturing regions such as the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Europe, and Southeast Asia, providing equipment, process expertise, and ongoing customer support. Founded in 1980 and headquartered in Fremont, California, Lam Research today plays a central role in enabling advanced semiconductor manufacturing nodes that underpin computing, data center, mobile, and other high-performance electronic applications.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.15
Total Equity: $9.86B
Shares: 1,290,142,000
Total Debt: $4.47B
Cash: $6.39B
EBITDA: $6.29B
Total Debt: $4.47B
Cash: $6.39B
Revenue: $18.44B
Revenue: $18.44B
Revenue: $18.44B
Total Equity: $9.86B
Tax Rate: 10.1%
Equity: $9.86B
Total Debt: $4.47B
Cash: $6.39B
Current Liabilities: $6.57B
Long-Term Debt: $3.72B
Total Debt: $4.47B
Total Equity: $9.86B
Shares: 1,290,142,000
Shares: 1,290,142,000
CapEx: -$759.19M
Shares: 1,290,142,000
Stock Price: $293.02
Net Income: $5.36B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:28am (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.6B | $17.2B | $17.4B | $14.9B | $18.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $7.8B | $9.4B | $9.7B | $7.9B | $9.5B |
| Gross Profit | $6.8B | $7.9B | $7.8B | $7.1B | $9.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.3B | $2.5B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $3.1B |
| Operating Income | $4.5B | $5.4B | $5.2B | $4.3B | $5.9B |
| Net Income | $3.9B | $4.6B | $4.5B | $3.8B | $5.4B |
| EBITDA | $4.8B | $5.7B | $5.5B | $4.6B | $6.3B |
| EPS | $27.22 | $32.92 | $33.30 | $29.13 | $4.17 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $26.90 | $32.75 | $33.21 | $29.00 | $4.15 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:09am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $4.4B | $3.5B | $5.3B | $5.8B | $6.4B |
| Total Current Assets | $11.7B | $12.3B | $13.2B | $12.9B | $14.5B |
| Total Assets | $15.9B | $17.2B | $18.8B | $18.7B | $21.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $3.5B | $4.6B | $4.2B | $4.3B | $6.6B |
| Long-Term Debt | $5.0B | $5.0B | $5.0B | $4.5B | $3.7B |
| Total Liabilities | $9.9B | $10.9B | $10.6B | $10.2B | $11.5B |
| Total Equity | $6.0B | $6.3B | $8.2B | $8.5B | $9.9B |
| Retained Earnings | $14.7B | $18.5B | $22.0B | $24.8B | $29.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:28am (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.6B | $3.1B | $5.2B | $4.7B | $6.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$349.1M | -$546.0M | -$501.6M | -$396.7M | -$759.2M |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.2B | $2.6B | $4.7B | $4.3B | $5.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $0 | -$120.0M | $0 | $0 |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | $0 | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$727.0M | -$815.3M | -$907.9M | -$1.0B | -$1.1B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.7B | -$3.9B | -$2.0B | -$2.8B | -$3.4B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$498.3M | -$897.2M | $1.8B | $263.4M | $556.9M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:28am (22d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +17.8% | +1.2% | -14.5% | +23.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +15.7% | -1.2% | -9.3% | +27.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +20.1% | -3.8% | -17.6% | +38.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +17.8% | -2.0% | -15.1% | +40.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +19.3% | -3.5% | -16.2% | +36.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:09am (23d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-04 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-03 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-24 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-18 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-05 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-11 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-17 | $0.23 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-18 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-12 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-12 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-12 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-13 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-14 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-13 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-13 | $0.17 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-14 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-15 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-14 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-27 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw quarterly trajectory is more bullish than the "decelerating" tag suggests. Revenue went $3.87B → $4.17B → $4.38B → $4.72B → $5.17B → $5.32B → $5.34B → $5.84B across eight quarters — that's 51% growth in two years with the latest print an 9.4% sequential pop after a two-quarter plateau. Net income margins have climbed from 26.4% to 31.2%, and TTM net income is now roughly $6.7B versus the FY2025 $5.36B, meaning the trailing P/E on run-rate earnings is closer to ~55x, not the stale 71.7x in the file. That's still expensive, but the synthesis DCF anchoring on $5.36B is already a quarter or two behind reality. Annualizing the Q1 2026 print gets you ~$23.4B revenue and ~$7.3B net income — the business is not mid-cycle, it's inflecting.
Where I partially disagree with the synthesis: the $83.70 composite fair value and even the $130.88 signal-adjusted figure look mechanically anchored to trailing multiples during weaker fab-capex years (FY2024 revenue $14.91B was a cyclical trough). LRCX's ROIC of 67% and ROE of 54% are extraordinary — this is not a normal capital equipment vendor, it's a duopoly-adjacent (with AMAT and TEL) toolmaker with genuine pricing power in etch/deposition for 3D NAND and gate-all-around logic. A "fair" multiple for a business compounding earnings 40% YoY with 32% operating margins and 88% FCF conversion is not 15x. That said, the market-forces read on cyclical peak risk is legitimate — WFE spend historically mean-reverts, and the last two quarters (5.32/5.34) hinted at a plateau before Q1 2026 reaccelerated. One quarter doesn't make a trend.
The contrarian argument the models are underweighting: China. LRCX derived ~40%+ of revenue from China in recent periods, much of it mature-node fab buildout that is (a) subsidy-driven and finite, and (b) increasingly at risk from tightening US export controls. If Chinese domestic WFE spend rolls over in 2026-2027 as the initial capacity build completes, the AI/HBM tailwind won't fully offset it — HBM is a small slice of total etch/deposition TAM. The insider activity is thin (three transactions, one option-exercise-and-dump pattern) but notably there are zero insider buys at $293. The debt/equity of 0.45 and 2.2x current ratio are fine; balance sheet is not the risk. The risk is that Q1 2026's 9.4% sequential jump is a China pull-forward ahead of stricter controls, not a durable step-up. Also worth flagging: the file shows a 2026-03-29 quarter and 2026-07 insider dates, which looks like fiscal-year labeling drift or forward-dated data — worth verifying before leaning too hard on the "acceleration" read.
Net: I dissent from the synthesis's -55% overvaluation call as too aggressive, but agree with the directional read that LRCX is expensive. On run-rate ~$7.3B NI and a defensible 30-35x multiple for a best-in-class semicap franchise in an AI capex upcycle, fair value sits in the $180-220 range, not $131 and not $293. That's still ~25-35% downside from spot, so I land on overvalued but with a much narrower gap than the composite suggests. The narrative layer's "70% of work above DCF" framing is directionally right but the DCF is stale. I'd want to see either (a) a pullback to the $200-220 zone or (b) a second consecutive quarter confirming the $5.8B+ revenue run-rate is durable before committing capital. Momentum traders can ride it; value-disciplined buyers should wait. The market-forces "better entry in 6-12 months" call is the most sensible read in the file.
GPT Reading
Lam’s operating picture is excellent; the stock’s valuation is the problem. The business has clearly re-accelerated: quarterly revenue climbed from $3.87B in June 2024 to $5.84B in March 2026, up 51% in seven quarters, while net income rose from $1.02B to $1.83B, and margins expanded from 26.4% to 31.2%. On a trailing run-rate basis, Lam now looks closer to a $22B-$23B revenue company than the $18.44B annual figure for FY2025, and the earnings power embedded in the last four quarters is roughly $6.2B-$6.7B depending on how you normalize the unusually strong June 2025 margin. That is not a weak cyclical name. It is a high-quality equipment franchise with real operating leverage, strong gross margin near 49%, operating margin 32%, and free cash flow of $5.41B against just $759M of capex. The balance sheet is also clean, with $6.39B cash versus $4.47B debt. If I looked only at business quality, I would want to own it.
But the market cap of $366.65B asks you to pay an extreme price even for that quality. Against FY2025 revenue of $18.44B, the stock trades at 20.8x sales; against FY2025 net income of $5.36B, the quoted P/E is 71.7x; EV/EBITDA is nearly 50x. Even if those multiples are distorted by timing, the distortion is nowhere near large enough to make them reasonable. Suppose Lam earns $7B in a stronger forward year; the stock would still be above 50x earnings. For a semiconductor equipment company whose annual revenue was $17.43B in 2023, dipped to $14.91B in 2024, then recovered to $18.44B in 2025, that is far beyond a normal premium for cyclicality-adjusted quality. The key contradiction in the data is that the recent operating acceleration is real, but the long-horizon growth record is not remotely consistent with a $367B valuation: revenue CAGR is just 2.9%, earnings CAGR 9%, and free cash flow CAGR 7.6%. This is a superb cyclical compounder, not a software-like perpetual grower.
The strongest bull case is that the old cyclicality framework is breaking because process intensity is rising structurally. A smart opponent would point to the latest five quarters: revenue went $4.38B, $4.72B, $5.17B, $5.32B, $5.34B, then $5.84B, showing not just rebound but sustained progression; net margins have held around 28%-33% throughout. ROIC at 66.8% and ROE at 54.3% are elite. With AI, HBM, advanced logic, and etch/deposition intensity all increasing, Lam may deserve a permanently higher multiple than in prior cycles. On that view, using FY2025 earnings or revenue understates current earning power, and the market is valuing a future $8B-$10B earnings business rather than a normalized $5B-$6B one. That is the best argument, and it is not crazy.
I still weigh it differently because even generous forward assumptions do not bridge the valuation gap. At $366.65B, a 30x multiple on $10B of earnings would still only justify roughly the current price, and $10B would require almost doubling FY2025 profit from an already strong margin base. For a company that has never shown anything close to that level in the figures provided, that is a heroic underwriting case, not a base case. The insider tape is not a major signal, but recent sales do not help argue the stock is obviously cheap. More importantly, the business remains exposed to capex concentration and geopolitics whether or not the current cycle is healthier than past ones. I can accept that Lam deserves a premium to historical semiconductor equipment multiples; I cannot accept 50x-70x style optics for a company with this revenue history and this degree of cyclicality.
What would change my mind is not another “good quarter”; it would be proof that the earnings base is structurally much higher than I think. If Lam can sustain quarterly revenue above $5.8B for several quarters, keep net margin around 30%, and convert that into annual net income above $7.5B with free cash flow also moving toward $7B, then the multiple would compress enough to make a premium case more credible. Conversely, if revenue stalls in the low-$5B range or margins retreat back toward the mid-20s, the current valuation should de-rate sharply. For now, the stock is pricing in the bullish end-state already.
Grok Reading
Lam Research is executing at a high level and the numbers make that plain. Quarterly revenue has climbed from $3.87B in the June 2024 quarter to $5.84B in the March 2026 quarter, a clean stair-step recovery that has annualized the run-rate near $23B. Net margins have expanded from the mid-20s into the 29–31% range, with the latest print at 31.2% on $1.83B of net income. Full-year 2025 delivered $18.44B revenue and $5.36B of net income after the 2024 trough of $14.91B, free cash flow of $5.41B against only $759M of capex, and a net-cash balance sheet ($6.39B cash versus $4.47B debt). Returns are elite—ROE 54%, ROIC 67%—so the operating machine itself is not in dispute. The story the price tells is different: at $293 the stock trades at 72x trailing earnings, 21x sales, and nearly 50x EV/EBITDA. Even on the current quarterly run-rate annualized (~$7B net income) you are still paying roughly 50x. That multiple only works if the AI-driven etch and deposition supercycle delivers mid-teens-plus compound growth for several years without a cyclical air pocket. The longer-term CAGRs in the briefing (revenue 2.9%, FCF 7.6%) remind you that this industry still mean-reverts; the 23.7% recent revenue growth and 40% earnings growth are real but are being capitalized as if they are the new permanent slope.
The quantitative models calling a mid-$80s to ~$131 fair value look directionally right once you normalize for mid-cycle rather than peak-cycle earnings power. The narrative layer is doing most of the heavy lifting above that anchor—the “irreplaceable chokepoint” framing and AI capex permanence—yet semiconductor equipment has never been a platform monopoly in the software sense; it remains a concentrated but still cyclical capital-goods business with China export-control overhang and customer concentration at TSMC, Samsung, and the memory makers. Secondary signals already flag decelerating quarterly trend confidence and macro headwinds. At these multiples, any pause in wafer-fab equipment spend or a second year of flattish rather than accelerating growth produces multiple compression that swamps the fundamental progress.
The strongest case against an overvalued call is straightforward and data-backed. Sequential growth has not stalled: four straight quarters above $5B, margins holding or expanding, and the 2025 recovery already surpassing the prior 2022–2023 peak revenues. Share gains in high-aspect-ratio etch and advanced packaging tied to HBM and leading-edge logic are structural, not purely cyclical. A 67% ROIC business that converts nearly all operating profit into free cash flow deserves a premium, and peer multiples in the group (especially KLAC) show the market is willing to pay for that quality. If the $5.84B quarter is the early innings of a multi-year AI fab build rather than the middle, then 2026–2028 earnings could compound fast enough to grow into a 35–40x forward multiple and make today’s price look merely expensive rather than absurd. Insider activity is neutral rather than distributive in a worrying way, and the balance sheet gives management full flexibility for buybacks or M&A. That bull case is coherent; it simply requires the supercycle duration assumption to be correct for three-plus years.
What flips the verdict is concrete: two more quarters that push revenue through $6.5B+ while holding net margins at or above 30%, or explicit multi-year company guidance that embeds 18–20% revenue CAGR with stable pricing, would force a re-rating of the earnings power and justify a higher anchor. Conversely, a single quarter that shows sequential decline back toward $5B or margin compression below 27% on China or memory digression would confirm the cycle call and open substantial downside toward the $150–180 zone.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Lam Research's operating performance in FY2025 is exceptional: revenue $18.44B (record), gross margin 48.7% (multi-year high), operating margin 32.0%, net income $5.36B, and FCF $5.41B — OCF/NI of 1.02x and accruals of -0.2% of assets corroborate that reported earnings are backed by cash. Altman Z of 23.28 and Beneish M of -2.34 leave no mechanical red flags. Liquid cash $6.39B against modest net debt yields net cash of ~$1.92B; the business is self-funding many times over.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Confirm the FY2025 share count reflects the Oct 2024 10-for-1 split (not real dilution)
- China revenue exposure and impact of latest US export controls (10-K risk factors and geographic segment)
- Customer concentration disclosure — top 3 customers as % of revenue
- Memory vs foundry/logic revenue mix and services (CSBG) share as stability buffer
- Any convertible debt or hedge overlay affecting diluted share count math
- Backlog and deferred revenue trends as forward demand signal
The e2e stack lands well below the market: DCF $48.73, EPV floor $28.82, anchored-PE $208.50, composite $83.70, signal-adjusted $130.88. Even taking the most generous input (anchored-PE at $208.50, which implicitly assumes current cycle earnings are durable), the stock at $293.02 trades ~40% above it. The DCF and EPV numbers look punitive for a Fortress-quality WFE oligopolist with 48.7% gross margins and clean cash conversion, so I discount them as too austere on cycle-peak cash flows — but the direction is unambiguous: every method says deserved value is below spot.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward WFE guidance and China revenue mix in latest 10-Q/transcript
- Segment split leading-edge vs mature-node to test cycle-peak assumption
- Buyback cadence and any one-time gains inflating trailing EPS the anchored-PE method leans on
- Management commentary on 2025-26 capex intentions from top-3 customers
The dominant force on LRCX right now is a raging AI-semicap narrative that just got a fresh accelerant: a Q2 beat plus an $8.1B forecast that triggered an 18.9% single-day move. Coverage is uniformly bullish (chips led a Nasdaq rebound, memory pricing crunch flagged by Amazon/Apple, Mizuho pushing back on China memory fears), and LRCX sits squarely at the chokepoint of the deposition/etch story the market is currently in love with. Beta 1.81 means this name amplifies risk-on days, and today's tape is exactly that. The macro backdrop is mildly supportive (regime +22, VIX 16, S&P near highs) though rates at 4.68% and market PE 26.2 are a quiet crosswind for high-multiple cyclicals. But that macro drag is being completely overwhelmed by the narrative and news flow. The only meaningful headwind is that this is a moderate-durability story (semicap is lumpy, cult coefficient only medium) and price is running well ahead of mid-cycle earnings — meaning when the narrative cracks, it cracks hard. For now, though, nothing in the 72h flow suggests a crack; it suggests the opposite.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the post-earnings gap holds through next week or fades on profit-taking
- Any China export-control or CXMT capacity headline that could crack the semicap narrative
- Sell-side target revisions in the next 5 trading days — magnitude of upgrades
- VIX behavior and whether the risk-on tape persists or the Fed-day volatility returns
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 1, 2026, LRCX was $293.02. We expect it to be $268.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $210.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 1, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.