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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for MongoDB Inc. (MDB) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-08): Designation Low · Gem Score -25 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 23 · Value -64 · Sentiment 19 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $63.18 vs $404.92 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
MongoDB Inc.
MDB NASDAQMongoDB, Inc. Class A Common Stock represents ownership in MongoDB, Inc., a software company that provides a developer data platform built around its document-oriented database technology. MongoDB’s products are designed to help organizations store, manage, and analyze data for modern application development, with offerings that support both managed cloud services and self-managed deployments. Its flagship platform, MongoDB Atlas, is a multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution that integrates database capabilities with related data services for developers and IT teams. The company serves a broad range of industries, including technology, financial services, healthcare, retail, and the public sector, where flexible data infrastructure is central to digital operations. MongoDB, Inc. is a key name in the database software market, known for serving businesses that need scalable data management tools for cloud-native and application-driven environments.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -0.88
Total Equity: $2.95B
Shares: 81,246,520
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.08B
EBITDA: -$114.57M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.08B
Revenue: $2.46B
Shares: 81,246,520
Revenue: $2.46B
Revenue: $2.46B
Revenue: $2.46B
Total Equity: $2.95B
Tax Rate: -27.8%
Equity: $2.95B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.08B
Current Liabilities: $669.50M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $2.95B
Shares: 81,246,520
Shares: 81,246,520
CapEx: -$4.96M
Shares: 81,246,520
Stock Price: $404.92
Net Income: -$71.15M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 3:45am (43d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $873.8M | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $259.5M | $349.3M | $424.5M | $535.3M | $696.1M |
| Gross Profit | $614.3M | $934.7M | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $903.7M | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $1.9B |
| Operating Income | -$289.4M | -$346.7M | -$233.7M | -$216.1M | -$137.0M |
| Net Income | -$306.9M | -$345.4M | -$176.6M | -$129.1M | -$71.2M |
| EBITDA | -$275.7M | -$330.5M | -$214.8M | -$204.3M | -$114.6M |
| EPS | $-4.75 | $-5.03 | $-2.48 | $-1.73 | $-0.88 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-4.75 | $-5.03 | $-2.48 | $-1.73 | $-0.88 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 2:00am (43d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $473.9M | $455.8M | $803.0M | $490.1M | $1.1B |
| Total Current Assets | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.1B |
| Total Assets | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.4B | $3.8B |
| Current Liabilities | $526.7M | $588.5M | $564.2M | $562.0M | $669.5M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $1.8B | $1.8B | $1.8B | $648.1M | $806.5M |
| Total Equity | $666.7M | $739.5M | $1.1B | $2.8B | $3.0B |
| Retained Earnings | -$1.2B | -$1.5B | -$1.7B | -$1.8B | -$1.9B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 3:45am (43d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $7.0M | -$13.0M | $121.5M | $150.2M | $505.1M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$8.1M | -$7.2M | -$6.1M | -$29.6M | -$5.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.1M | -$20.2M | $115.4M | $120.6M | $500.2M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$4.5M | $0 | -$15.0M | $0 | -$2.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$400.3M |
| Net Change in Cash | $44.2M | -$18.1M | $347.3M | -$310.9M | $593.9M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 26, 2026 3:45am (43d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +47.0% | +31.1% | +19.2% | +22.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +52.2% | +34.6% | +16.9% | +20.2% |
| Operating Income Growth | -19.8% | +32.6% | +7.6% | +36.6% |
| Net Income Growth | -12.6% | +48.9% | +26.9% | +44.9% |
| EBITDA Growth | -19.9% | +35.0% | +4.9% | +43.9% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-08 02:02A +1σ run of quarters pays -97%; a −1σ run costs 98%. Ratio -1.0:1 (μ 25.1%, σ 5.5% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($404.92) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +47% | 17.3% | $123.68 | -69% |
| Base — stabilizes | +31% | 15.0% | $70.84 | -82% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +16% | 12.8% | $38.28 | -91% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +19% | 2.1% | $7.91 | -98% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +31% | 2.1% | $11.02 | -97% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +20% | 2.1% | $8.13 | -98% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-26 03:55The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue went $478M → $529M → $548M → $549M → $591M → $628M → $695M → $688M. That last print is a sequential decline, and YoY growth on the Apr-2026 quarter is ~25% vs Apr-2025's $549M — respectable but the sequential dip after the Jan spike suggests seasonality/consumption lumpiness rather than clean acceleration. Full-year FY26 revenue of $2.46B on 22% growth, with FCF exploding to $500M (20% FCF margin) from essentially nothing two years ago — that's the real story the models under-weight. Operating loss narrowed from -$346M (FY23) to -$137M (FY26) on a revenue base that nearly doubled; that's genuine operating leverage, not a mirage. Gross margin sits at 71.7%, stable. Balance sheet is fortress: $1.08B cash, zero debt, 4.65 current ratio.
Where I diverge from the synthesis: it calls MDB "priced for an outcome it may not achieve" at 13x sales, and Market Forces calls unit economics "unsustainable." Both are stale framings. At $500M FCF run-rate, EV/FCF is ~63x — expensive but not deranged for a 22%-growing infrastructure business with 72% gross margins and net cash. The "profitability mirage" bear needs to explain the $505M operating cash flow, which is not stock-based-comp-adjusted-into-oblivion — it's a real number that grew from ~$120M two years ago. The Thesis Evaluation's -7 score and the "profitability mirage" bear weight of 72 look overweighted given FY26 actuals. GAAP losses persist because of SBC, but FCF conversion is the tell on infrastructure software durability, and it's inflecting hard.
That said, the contrarian case is sharper than the models articulate. First, Q1 FY27 net margin collapsed to 0.6% from 2.9% a year prior on the comparable Apr quarter — profitability is not linearly improving. Second, quarterly revenue confidence is flagged "decelerating" and the sequential $695M→$688M print supports that; if FY27 growth compresses to 15-17%, the multiple compresses with it. Third, the AI/vector database narrative that juiced 2024-2025 sentiment is now contested territory where Postgres+pgvector, Snowflake, and Databricks are eating incremental workloads — the "developer-led flywheel" is real but the *incremental* developer today has more good-enough alternatives than in 2020. Fourth, insider selling on Aug 14-17 is small in share count but uniformly one-directional; no offsetting buys. Fifth, the 108% FCF CAGR is unrepeatable — it's coming off a near-zero base, and normalization means FCF growth converges to revenue growth within 2 years.
My read: the synthesis and Market Forces models are anchored to a 2023-vintage skepticism that hasn't updated to the FCF inflection. But the narrative layer is right that ~80% of the price is story — at $405 and $32.6B market cap, you're paying 65x FCF for a business decelerating from 30%+ to low-20s growth with real (but bounded) competitive threats from hyperscalers. Fair value on a 25x FY28E FCF of ~$800M (assuming continued margin expansion and 18% growth) gets you to a $20B EV, or roughly $250/share. Bull case with sustained 22% growth and 25% FCF margins by FY29 justifies $450-500. I don't see the asymmetric upside at $405; I see a high-quality compounder priced for the upper half of its outcome distribution. Partial dissent from the synthesis: I disagree it's "priced for an outcome it may not achieve" — it's priced for the *median* good outcome, which is different. But I agree the risk/reward is unattractive here. Wait for a $300-handle or a re-acceleration print to add.
GPT Reading
MongoDB’s numbers say “excellent business, expensive stock.” The business quality is obvious in the revenue line: from $873.8M in FY2022 to $2.46B in FY2026 is a near-3x scale-up, and even now quarterly revenue is still growing solidly, from $549.0M in the April 2025 quarter to $687.6M in April 2026, about 25% YoY. Gross margin at 71.8% is healthy for infrastructure software, and the operating loss has narrowed materially from -$346.7M in FY2023 to -$137.0M in FY2026. More important, cash generation has arrived before GAAP earnings: FY2026 operating cash flow was $505.1M and free cash flow was $500.2M on just $5.0M of capex. With $1.08B cash and no debt, there is no balance-sheet stress. If I were only underwriting business durability, this is a strong asset.
What stops me is the price paid for that quality. At a $32.6B market cap and roughly 13.4x sales, the market is not valuing MongoDB on today’s economics; it is valuing a future where growth stays elevated and margins eventually look much more like elite software than like a still-investing database platform. Yet the recent quarterly pattern already hints at limits. Revenue actually dipped sequentially from $695.1M in January 2026 to $687.6M in April 2026, and net income remains barely above breakeven at $4.4M, a 0.6% margin. On a trailing annual basis net margin is still negative 2.9% and operating margin negative 5.6%. That is not a problem by itself for a grower, but it is a problem at 13x sales. This multiple leaves little room for a normalization from 20%+ growth to mid-teens while the business is still proving it can consistently convert its 72% gross margin into double-digit operating margin.
The biggest disconnect in the bullish framing is that free cash flow is being treated as if it fully validates the valuation. I’m less persuaded. Yes, $500.2M of FCF is real money, but against a roughly $32.6B equity value that is only about a 1.5% FCF yield. That is fine for a company compounding at very high rates, but MongoDB’s growth profile is already more mature than its narrative premium suggests: annual revenue growth slowed from 31% in FY2024 to 20% in FY2025, then reaccelerated to 22% in FY2026, while the most recent quarterly cadence looks less explosive than the stock’s premium implies. If I haircut the story to something like high-teens growth with eventual mid-teens operating margins, I do not get comfortable near $405. The stock feels priced for a path to perhaps $6B+ revenue and 20%+ FCF margins without much competitive erosion; that is achievable, but not sufficiently probable to justify today’s multiple.
The best case against my skepticism is straightforward: this is exactly how great infrastructure software names look before GAAP margins snap into place. MongoDB has already demonstrated operating leverage, shrinking annual operating losses by nearly $210M from FY2023 to FY2026 while adding over $1.1B of revenue. Quarterly net income has gone from losses of -$54.5M and -$9.8M in mid/late 2024 to profits of $15.8M, $15.5M, and $4.4M in three of the last four reported quarters. If stock-based compensation and working-capital timing are not masking the cash flow, then $500M of annual FCF on $2.46B of revenue is an early sign of a business that can scale much harder than GAAP suggests. On that view, 13x sales is not absurd for a debt-free category leader with durable developer adoption. I weigh this less heavily because the valuation already assumes the margin story works; I would rather pay this kind of multiple when sustained profitability is visible, not merely plausible.
What would change my mind is concrete evidence that MongoDB can hold 20%+ top-line growth while making profitability boring rather than episodic. If the next few quarters show revenue back above $700M and then toward $750M with no sequential wobble, alongside GAAP operating margins turning sustainably positive, the current price becomes easier to defend. I would also want FY free cash flow to keep compounding meaningfully above $500M without reliance on balance-sheet timing effects. Conversely, if growth slips toward the mid-teens or GAAP margins remain stuck around breakeven despite scale, the stock should not be trading above 10x sales. At around $405, I think the market is paying up for a very good company as if the hard part is already proven; it isn’t.
Grok Reading
MongoDB’s numbers tell a clearer cash story than the GAAP loss narrative implies. Revenue scaled from $873.8M in FY2022 to $2.46B in FY2026—roughly a 21% CAGR—with the latest annual print still growing 22% YoY and trailing twelve-month growth near 23%. Gross margin held at 71.8%, and free cash flow flipped hard: $500.2M FCF on only $5.0M of capex, a ~20% FCF margin that the “pre-profit” and “profitability mirage” labels underweight. Operating losses compressed from –$346.7M to –$137.0M over four years while the balance sheet carries $1.08B cash, zero debt, and a 4.65 current ratio. Recent quarters finally show thin black ink ($15.5M then $4.4M NI), so the cash engine is real even if stock-based compensation and GAAP still muddy reported earnings. What the tape is actually buying at $404.92 and $32.6B is that Atlas keeps compounding at low-20s growth into a multi-cloud default; at 13.4x sales and ~13x EV/revenue, that is a premium that only works if deceleration stops here.
The fracture in the bull case is visible in the same data. The most recent quarter slipped sequentially—$687.6M vs $695.1M—and the secondary signal flags decelerating quarterly revenue with only “good” confidence. A ~63x multiple on $500M of FCF (FCF yield ~1.5%) leaves almost no room for a glide path into mid-teens growth, which is exactly where land-and-expand database franchises tend to settle once the easy developer cohort is saturated. Hyperscaler managed offerings remain a permanent overhang that no amount of developer preference fully extinguishes, and the prior models’ bear mass (share peak, competitive replication) is directionally right even if they overstate cash-quality problems. Insider activity is a string of small sales, not a thesis-killer on its own, but it does not support the idea that insiders see asymmetric upside from $405.
The strongest case against my skepticism is the operating leverage already delivered: FCF CAGR above 100% as revenue only grew ~21%, gross margins stuck in the low-70s, and a clean net-cash balance sheet that can fund the Atlas land-grab without dilution or leverage. If Atlas unit economics keep expanding and consumption growth re-accelerates above 25%, the 13x sales multiple is simply the price of a scarce infrastructure winner, and the “80% story” narrative discount is wrong. I weigh that less because the latest sequential revenue dip and the structural ceiling against AWS/Azure/GCP make the re-acceleration path the low-probability branch, not the base case; paying 13x sales and ~60x FCF for 22% growth that is already rolling over is paying for the upside case in full.
I would flip constructive on two clean prints of sequential revenue re-acceleration back above ~8–10% QoQ with FCF margins holding ≥20%, or a credible path to $4B+ revenue inside three years without gross-margin sacrifice. A sustained break below ~18% YoY growth or FCF margin compression back under 15% would confirm the multiple should sit closer to 8–10x sales and push me firmly more bearish.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
MongoDB is a scaled, still-growing data platform: revenue compounded from $874M (FY22) to $2.46B (FY26), gross margin sits in the low-70s, and operating margin has climbed from -33% to -5.6%. Free cash flow inflected hard, from -$1M in FY22 to $500M in FY26, giving the business a self-funding profile alongside $1.08B of net cash and an Altman Z of 24.8 - survival is not a question. Earnings-quality mechanicals are clean (Beneish -2.95, no accrual flags), and the operating-leverage trajectory is real. The blemish is capital structure: diluted shares grew from 64.6M to 81.2M (about 5.9% CAGR), stock-based comp runs 22.3% of revenue (roughly $549M annualized), and buybacks recapture only 18.8% of SBC. That means a big chunk of the $500M FCF is economically a compensation expense in disguise, and per-share compounding lags top-line growth materially. Insider tape shows 74 sales / 0 buys over 12 months ($55M sold); the recent Merriman cluster looks like programmatic disposition rather than a distress signal, but the complete absence of open-market buying is notable. Business quality is genuinely good - durable product, expanding margins, real cash - held back from a higher tier by dilution discipline and still-negative GAAP profitability at $2.5B of revenue.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- 10-K breakdown of SBC by function and any change in grant policy
- Customer concentration and net revenue retention trend (Atlas vs. EA mix)
- Whether recent buyback authorization is being deployed to offset dilution more aggressively
- Nature of Merriman's sales - 10b5-1 plan vs. discretionary
- Segment/geographic revenue detail and any deceleration signals in the latest quarter
The e2e synthesis frames the setup bluntly: 13x sales embeds Atlas capturing ~20% of an $80B database market AND fixing unit economics that still print GAAP losses. That is not a base case, it is an optimistic case being charged as if it were certain. The Company-Quality lens calls this a Solid business (23) with real cash generation and a fortress balance sheet, which supports a premium multiple - but not this one. Structural SBC dilution is quietly financing headcount, so per-share deserved value grows slower than headline revenue, which further squeezes any upside at 13x sales and a ~$32.6B cap.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Atlas net revenue retention trend and consumption growth in latest quarter
- Non-GAAP to GAAP bridge - specifically SBC as percent of revenue and diluted share count trajectory
- Forward revenue guide and any commentary on Atlas gross margin at scale
- Competitive win/loss color vs DocumentDB, Cosmos DB, and open-source alternatives
The immediate pressure on MDB is positive: the tape is mildly risk-on, analyst tone is inflecting bullish (UBS steady-growth read, rising price targets, heavy institutional accumulation flagged into the early-September fiscal Q2 print), and the platform-monopoly narrative is running strong with medium cult energy. For a beta-1.55 story stock, that combination is amplified - buyers are pre-positioning into a known catalyst window, and momentum is already strong_positive. Offsetting that, the macro backdrop is not a friend: 10y at 4.7% and market PE 25.7 are structural headwinds for exactly this profile - long-duration, richly-multipled infrastructure software where the price is ~80% story. Any risk-off flare or a soft Q2 guide would land hard because the narrative-to-fundamentals gap is wide and durability is only moderate. Cloud-incumbent commoditization and 'limited AI impact so far' are latent narrative cracks that could flip tone quickly. Net: a real, event-driven tailwind into earnings, sitting on top of a fragile macro floor. The push is up, but it is the kind of pressure that can invert on one disappointing print.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Fiscal Q2 print in early September - guide vs Street and any Atlas net-new-workload commentary
- Whether AI-workload contribution shows up or remains 'limited' - the key narrative crack
- 10y yield direction; a break above 4.8-5.0% would pressure high-multiple software
- Whether risk-on regime persists beyond its 1-day age or reverts to risk-off
- Any hyperscaler competitive announcement (AWS/Azure/GCP) that revives the commoditization bear
The world's data layer is still being rebuilt around cloud-native, elastic, schema-flexible storage, and that rebuild is a decade-long secular flow that MongoDB sits directly in. The complication is that the same flow is being harvested by the hyperscalers, who own the deployment surface and can bundle competing managed database services against committed cloud spend. Higher rates and enterprise budget scrutiny do not stop database migrations — they slow their pace and push customers toward optimizing consumption. Net read: the demand backdrop keeps MongoDB growing at a healthy absolute rate for years, but the marginal dollar of new AI-era data workload is contested territory, and MongoDB has to win it rather than inherit it.
When we made this prediction on Aug 26, 2026, MDB was $402.01. We expect it to be $392.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $300.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 26, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.