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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Medtronic plc (MDT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +4 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 55 · Value -38 · Sentiment 20 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $86.42 vs $87.15 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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Medtronic plc
MDT NYSEMedtronic plc is a global medical technology company that develops, manufactures, and sells device-based therapies and related services for a broad range of chronic and acute health conditions. Headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, and founded in 1949, Medtronic focuses on technologies used by hospitals, clinics, and physicians worldwide. The company operates through four main areas: its Cardiovascular Portfolio, offering products such as heart valves, stents, pacemakers, and defibrillators; its Neuroscience Portfolio, which provides spinal fixation systems, neurostimulation devices, and neurovascular products; its Medical Surgical Portfolio, supplying advanced surgical instruments, energy-based devices, and visualization tools; and its Diabetes Operating Unit, which delivers insulin pumps, continuous glucose monitoring systems, and related consumables. Medtronic plays a significant role in the healthcare sector by providing solutions that support the diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment of complex conditions, serving healthcare providers and patients across the United States, Europe, Japan, and other international markets.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 3.73
Total Equity: $50.07B
Shares: 1,288,100,000
Total Debt: $1.79B
Cash: $1.95B
EBITDA: $9.43B
Total Debt: $1.79B
Cash: $1.95B
Revenue: $36.36B
Revenue: $36.36B
Revenue: $36.36B
Total Equity: $50.07B
Tax Rate: 21.2%
Equity: $50.07B
Total Debt: $1.79B
Cash: $1.95B
Current Liabilities: $11.66B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $1.79B
Total Equity: $50.07B
Shares: 1,288,100,000
Shares: 1,288,100,000
CapEx: -$1.90B
Shares: 1,288,100,000
Stock Price: $86.12
Net Income: $4.80B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:58am (17d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.7B | $31.2B | $32.4B | $33.5B | $36.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $10.1B | $10.7B | $11.2B | $11.6B | $12.7B |
| Gross Profit | $21.5B | $20.5B | $21.1B | $21.9B | $23.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $15.8B | $15.0B | $16.0B | $16.0B | $17.2B |
| Operating Income | $5.8B | $5.5B | $5.1B | $6.0B | $6.5B |
| Net Income | $5.0B | $3.8B | $3.7B | $4.7B | $4.8B |
| EBITDA | $8.5B | $8.2B | $7.8B | $8.8B | $9.4B |
| EPS | $3.75 | $2.83 | $2.77 | $3.63 | $3.75 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.73 | $2.82 | $2.76 | $3.61 | $3.73 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:43am (18d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $3.7B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $2.2B | $1.9B |
| Total Current Assets | $23.1B | $21.7B | $21.9B | $23.8B | $24.8B |
| Total Assets | $91.0B | $90.9B | $90.0B | $91.7B | $93.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $12.4B | $9.1B | $10.8B | $12.9B | $11.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $38.3B | $39.3B | $39.6B | $43.4B | $43.0B |
| Total Equity | $52.7B | $51.7B | $50.4B | $48.3B | $50.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $30.3B | $30.4B | $30.4B | $31.5B | $32.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:58am (17d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $7.3B | $6.0B | $6.8B | $7.0B | $7.3B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.4B | -$1.5B | -$1.6B | -$1.9B | -$1.9B |
| Free Cash Flow | $6.0B | $4.6B | $5.2B | $5.2B | $5.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$91.0M | -$1.9B | -$211.0M | -$98.0M | -$406.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$1.0M | -$603.0M | $0 | $3.2B | -$1.2B |
| Dividends Paid | -$3.4B | -$3.6B | -$3.7B | -$3.6B | -$3.6B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.5B | -$645.0M | -$2.1B | -$3.2B | -$1.0B |
| Net Change in Cash | $121.0M | -$2.2B | -$259.0M | $934.0M | -$269.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:58am (17d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -1.4% | +3.6% | +3.6% | +8.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -4.8% | +3.1% | +3.6% | +7.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | -4.6% | -6.2% | +15.8% | +8.6% |
| Net Income Growth | -25.4% | -2.2% | +26.8% | +3.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | -3.3% | -4.8% | +13.2% | +6.9% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:43am (18d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-27 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-26 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-26 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-27 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-28 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-27 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-27 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-21 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-19 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-21 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-22 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-23 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-20 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-22 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-23 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-24 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-21 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-23 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue went $7.92B → $8.40B → $8.29B → $8.93B → $8.58B → $8.96B → $9.02B → $9.81B. That's genuine sequential acceleration, and the latest print at $9.81B is a legitimate 8.4% YoY on the comparable quarter — not the "structural share loss" caricature the Market Forces model paints. Annual revenue went $31.23B → $32.36B → $33.54B → $36.36B, an 8.4% acceleration in the most recent year vs 3.6% the year prior. Operating income scaled from $5.14B to $6.47B (+26% in two years), and gross margin held at 65%. This is not a company in decay; it's a company reaccelerating off a COVID/FX-depressed base. Net income of $4.80B on $36.36B revenue = 13.2% net margin, up from 11.4% two years ago. The FCF story is weaker — $5.43B on $7.33B OCF, with capex creeping up — and FCF CAGR of 2.2% flags that earnings quality is drifting via working capital and non-cash items.
Now where I disagree with the prior models: Market Forces is too bearish and cherry-picks the diabetes/GLP-1 thesis while ignoring that the last four quarters show the fastest sequential revenue expansion in five years. Calling MDT a "value trap" when Q1'26 just printed $9.81B (a record) is a narrative overreach — the numbers refute the "non-repeatable margin expansion masking revenue weakness" claim directly, because revenue is not weak. The Thesis Evaluation at -8 and the "fair value $83–85" synthesis are more defensible, but even they underweight the reacceleration. Conversely, the bulls should note that ROE of 9.6% and ROIC of 10.2% are mediocre for a supposed medtech monopolist — Stryker and Boston Scientific run materially higher returns on capital, so MDT's reinvestment productivity remains the real long-term concern, not near-term revenue.
A careful contrarian would argue two things. First, the Q1'26 $9.81B could be an FX tailwind + one-time restructuring benefit rather than sustainable — Medtronic historically has lumpy quarters and the 12.7% net margin is below the 15%+ prints from a year earlier, suggesting revenue growth came at the cost of profitability mix. Second, the insider "A-Award" grants on 2026-08-03 (totaling ~878K shares across 10 grants) are compensation, not conviction buys — the "No Insider Transactions" label from Secondary Signals is technically wrong but directionally right: there's zero open-market insider buying, which for a stock down 18% from 52W high is telling. If management thought $86 was a gift, someone would be buying. They aren't. The dividend at 3.27% with a 75.8% payout ratio also constrains capital allocation flexibility — a genuine growth pivot into robotics or AI-enabled devices would require either dividend restraint (politically impossible for this shareholder base) or debt (currently only $1.79B, so capacity exists but management hasn't used it).
GPT Reading
What stands out first is that the business is healthier than the bear narrative implies, but not healthy enough to deserve a clear premium. Revenue has moved from $31.23B in FY2023 to $36.36B in FY2026, a solid 16% cumulative gain, and the quarterly cadence is plainly improving: from $7.92B in Jul-2024 to $9.81B in Apr-2026. The latest four quarters sum to $36.36B versus $33.54B the year before, so this is not a flatlining franchise. Operating income also improved from $5.14B in FY2024 to $6.47B in FY2026, lifting operating margin from 15.9% to 17.8%. That matters because it suggests the company is not merely buying growth through cost leakage. Gross margin at 65.0% and ROIC at 10.2% are respectable for a scale medtech platform, and with $7.33B of operating cash flow and $5.43B of free cash flow, Medtronic still throws off enough cash to support dividends and reinvestment without stressing the balance sheet.
The balance sheet is actually the cleanest part of the story. Total debt is just $1.79B against $1.95B of cash and $50.07B of equity, which is unusually conservative for a $110B market cap company. That means the equity case does not depend on financial engineering; if management underdelivers, shareholders are not staring at leverage risk. At the current price, valuation also is not obviously stretched. A 23.4x P/E and 11.7x EV/EBITDA for a defensive medtech name with a 3.3% dividend yield is not cheap, but it is also not the kind of multiple that assumes a heroic acceleration. On FY2026 numbers, the stock trades at about 3.0x revenue and roughly 22.9x net income. For a business growing revenue 8.4% in the latest reported quarter year over year, with annual net income up to $4.80B from $4.66B, that is basically a “quality bond proxy plus a little growth” valuation. My read is that this is closer to fair value than to a true bargain.
What keeps me from being bullish is the quality of the earnings progression relative to the price. Revenue growth over the last few years has been decent, but net income has not compounded cleanly: $5.04B in FY2022 fell to $3.76B in FY2023, then only recovered to $4.80B by FY2026. Even now, net margin at 13.2% remains below the 15.9% implied by FY2022 net income on $31.69B of revenue. The recent quarterly pattern also shows margins bouncing around a tight but uninspiring band, mostly 11.8% to 15.6%, with the latest two quarters both at 12.7% despite higher revenue. So the business is bigger, but not dramatically more profitable per dollar of sales. Free cash flow of $5.43B is good, yet against a $110B market cap that is only about a 4.9% FCF yield. Combined with a 75.8% payout ratio, that tells me most of the shareholder return case is already in the stock: you are getting stability and income, not an asymmetric rerating opportunity.
The best argument against my caution is straightforward: this may be exactly the kind of stock investors should pay up for in an uncertain macro tape. The company has delivered three straight years of revenue growth, operating income rose more than 25% from FY2024 to FY2026, and the latest quarter’s $9.81B revenue was the highest in the dataset. If Medtronic can sustain high-single-digit revenue growth while holding gross margin near 65%, then a low-20s earnings multiple could prove entirely justified, especially with net cash on the balance sheet and a durable installed base. A smart bull would also point out that earnings CAGR in the briefing screens well at 14.3%, and that a company with this balance sheet has room for M&A, buybacks, or simply patience while newer platforms mature. I weigh those points less heavily because the actual annual earnings arc is still more recovery than breakout, and the payout ratio leaves less flexibility than the pristine debt figures suggest.
What would change my mind is evidence that Medtronic can convert recent sales growth into sustained margin expansion rather than just absolute-dollar growth. If the next few quarters show revenue holding above a $37.5B annualized run rate while operating margin pushes through 18.5% and net income tracks toward $5.2B-$5.5B, I would move bullish and support a value above $95. Conversely, if revenue slips back toward the $34B-$35B range or margins stall near 12%-13% net despite growth investments, then even $86 is too generous and I would see fair value closer to the mid-$70s. For now, the numbers say solid franchise, excellent balance sheet, but only moderate upside because too much of the “steady compounder” case is already reflected in the multiple.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers show a mature medtech franchise that has finally reaccelered the top line after years of drift. Fiscal 2026 revenue hit $36.36B, up 8.4% from $33.54B, with the most recent quarter printing $9.81B—the strongest print in the eight-quarter stack and a clear step-up from the $8.5–9.0B range that dominated the prior year. Operating income tracked that growth almost exactly ($6.47B vs $5.96B, +8.5%), preserving the 17.8% operating margin, while free cash flow of $5.43B on $7.33B of operating cash flow confirms the conversion engine is intact. The balance sheet is fortress-grade: $1.79B of total debt against $1.95B cash and $50B of equity produces a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.036 and leaves enormous capacity. At $86 with a 23.4x P/E, 11.7x EV/EBITDA and a 3.3% dividend yield backed by a 76% payout, the market is paying a full but not absurd multiple for mid-single-digit growth plus ballast. What stands out negatively is the quality of the earnings recovery: net income only rose 3% to $4.80B, still below the $5.04B peak of FY2022, ROE sits at a mediocre 9.6% and ROIC at 10.2%, and FCF CAGR over the period is a sluggish 2.2%. Sequential revenue is real; economic leverage and capital returns on the installed base remain pedestrian.
The prior models over-weight the “value trap / structural share loss” narrative relative to what the income statement is actually delivering. Diabetes share loss to Dexcom/Abbott and the multi-year lag of Hugo versus Intuitive are genuine competitive scars, yet they have not prevented an 8%+ revenue acceleration or kept operating profit from compounding in line with sales. The classification as a pure mature earner is correct, but the Market Forces claim of “non-repeatable margin expansion masking revenue weakness” is simply inconsistent with the latest annual and quarterly prints—revenue is not weak. Insider activity is pure equity awards with zero open-market signal, which is neutral rather than bearish. The stock is trading almost exactly on top of the valuation composite’s $83–85 fair-value band; the modest premium is dividend and balance-sheet support, not narrative froth.
The strongest case against this read is that 23x earnings and 3x sales for a 6% revenue CAGR business with sub-11% ROIC and a 76% payout leaves almost no margin of safety if the recent top-line bounce proves cyclical or if GLP-1 drugs structurally shrink the insulin-pump and CGM-adjacent opportunity. A smart opponent would also note that earnings CAGR of 14% is largely a bounce off the FY2023–24 trough rather than sustainable leverage, and that FCF growth of 2% cannot indefinitely support both a rising dividend and meaningful reinvestment once the easy cost takes are exhausted. Those points have merit; I simply weigh the $5.4B of annual free cash flow, net-cash balance sheet and demonstrated sequential revenue momentum more heavily than the competitive lore until the growth rate actually rolls over.
I would flip to outright bearish on two consecutive quarters of organic growth back below 4% or a sustained drop in FCF below $4.5B; I would turn more constructive if FY2027 guidance embeds mid-single-digit growth with operating margin expansion above 19% and Hugo or the pulsed-field ablation franchise begins to show share gains that reverse the diabetes/robotics narrative.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Medtronic runs a large, diversified medical-device business generating $36.4B in FY26 revenue (up from $31.7B in FY22, a ~3.5% CAGR that just re-accelerated with FY26 growth of ~8.7%). Gross margin has drifted modestly from 68% to 65% but operating margin has stabilized at 17.8% and net income recovered to $4.80B after a dip to ~$3.7B in FY23-24. FCF is remarkably steady at $5.2-5.4B annually and covers dividends and buybacks without external funding. Liquid cash of $9.22B against a net cash position of $7.43B gives the balance sheet real cushion, though Altman Z at 2.82 (grey) hints at meaningful leverage typical of a large medtech serial acquirer. Earnings quality is clean: OCF/NI of 1.59x, accruals -2.8% of assets, Beneish M of -2.58 - no mechanical red flags. Share count has fallen from 1.35B to 1.29B (-1.2% CAGR) with buybacks running ~482% of SBC and SBC just 1.3% of revenue - disciplined per-share stewardship. Insider tape shows only routine August 2026 equity awards (A codes) with no open-market buys or sales, which is uninformative rather than concerning. The main quality caveats are the multi-year gross-margin slide, the FY23-24 profit dip that was only partly recovered, and grey-zone Z score reflecting acquisition-related leverage - all consistent with a durable but not accelerating incumbent.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Segment growth mix - is diabetes/spine drag masking stronger cardiac/neuro growth?
- Gross-margin bridge - how much of the 300bps decline is FX vs mix vs input costs?
- Debt maturity ladder and interest coverage behind the grey-zone Altman Z
- Goodwill and intangibles balance vs equity given acquisitive history
- R&D productivity and pipeline (Hugo robot, PFA, renal denervation) that would justify the FY26 re-acceleration
- Any pending litigation or product-recall exposures in the 10-K
The e2e composite pins fair value at $85.44 and the signal-adjusted number at $83.33, versus a $87.15 price - about 2-5% overvalued, i.e. essentially fair. The methods triangulate reasonably: DCF at $94.54 gives modest upside if you believe the FY26 growth tick sustains; anchored-PE at $107.10 assumes multiple expansion I don't think this franchise earns given 300bps of gross margin erosion; EPV floor at $45.57 is the reminder that without growth, the steady-state economics are pedestrian. The spread between EPV and DCF ($46 to $95) tells you almost the entire price is paying for growth continuing, not for what the business already earns. What's priced in: mid-single-digit revenue growth, stable margins, and the dividend keeps coming. That is not heroic - it is roughly consensus for a mature, diversified medtech. There is no visible margin of safety and no clear dislocation; earnings quality is clean so no haircut is warranted, but clean earnings on a fully-priced stock still equal fairly valued. A strong business at a fair price is not an edge.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- FY26 organic revenue growth cadence - is the tick real or one-off comp
- Gross margin trajectory - is the 300bps erosion stabilizing
- Robotic surgery (Hugo) traction vs Intuitive competitive response
- Diabetes segment share trends vs Insulet and Tandem
- Free cash flow conversion after restructuring charges
The macro tape is mildly risk-on with VIX at 14.9 and the S&P near highs, but with beta of 0.57 MDT barely feels the wind either way — it is a low-sensitivity name that neither surges in euphoria nor gets mauled in stress. The narrative is a durable steady-compounder with minimal intensity and no cult following, meaning there is no story to inflate or deflate; the stock trades on dividend yield and inertia, which in a calm tape is a mild positive because defensive yield is not being abandoned for high-beta risk. Higher rates (10y 4.69%) are a background drag on yield-proxy defensives, but the narrative durability and lack of hot-money positioning insulate this name from rotation shocks. Recent news flow is genuinely constructive: the expanded CE Mark for Affera in ventricular arrhythmias is a real product-level positive in a competitive electrophysiology space, and a bullish 40% call article adds some retail attention without moving the narrative needle. Analyst tone appears steady; there is no visible tape pressure from downgrades or estimate cuts. Net: a light tailwind, not a decisive one — the kind of quiet support a boring compounder gets in a calm market.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether rate expectations shift — a decisive drop in 10y yields would materially help yield-defensive medtech
- Analyst target revisions post-Affera CE Mark expansion
- Rotation flows into or out of defensive healthcare vs high-beta medtech peers (BSX, ISRG)
- Any competitive news in robotic surgery or diabetes that could crack the durable-compounder frame
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 8, 2026, MDT was $87.15. We expect it to be $91.80 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $72.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 8, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.