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FRESH Analysis Report
Jun 27, 2026
today · 82% complete

Micron Technology, Inc.

MU NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Semiconductors
Boise, ID 83716-9632, United States IPO 1984 micron.com Updated Jun 27, 3:00am
Price
$1,132.33
Market Cap
$1.3T
Employees
48,000
Beta
2.17
Avg Volume
52,139,568
CEO
Sanjay Mehrotra
Business Description

Micron Technology, Inc. is a global leader specializing in the development, manufacture, and sale of advanced semiconductor memory and storage solutions. Its operations are structured across four primary business segments: Compute and Networking, Mobile, Storage, and Embedded. The company's product portfolio encompasses a range of memory and data storage technologies. These include high-speed, low-latency Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM) components for rapid data retrieval; non-volatile, re-programmable NAND flash storage devices; and fast-read, non-volatile, re-writable NOR memory chips. These innovative solutions are offered under its well-known Micron and Crucial brands, as well as through private label partnerships. Micron's extensive offerings cater to a diverse array of markets and applications. This includes critical infrastructure like cloud servers and enterprise data centers, personal computing (client and graphics), mobile devices such as smartphones, networking equipment, automotive systems, industrial applications, and various consumer electronics. The company utilizes a multi-faceted approach to market its products, employing a direct sales force, independent sales representatives, and a network of distributors and retailers. Additionally, it leverages a web-based direct sales channel and collaborates with various channel and distribution partners. Founded in 1978, Micron Technology, Inc. is headquartered in Boise, Idaho.

Business History
Generated: Jun 22, 2026 3:03am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:06am (just now)
$1,132.33
-81.23 (-6.69%)
Day Range
$1,121.56 – $1,198.71
52-Week Range
$103.38 – $1,255.00
50-Day MA
$802.14
200-Day MA
$425.84
Volume
84,431,604.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $400.00
Consensus $1,496.52
High $2,200.00
(255 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,127,730,000.00
Float 1,123,837,680.00
Free Float 99.7%
High free float — 99.7% of shares trade freely, ~0.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 8:06am (just now)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 27, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
25.31
Stock Price: $1,132
EPS (Diluted): 7.65
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.51
Stock Price: $1,132
Total Equity: $54.17B
Shares: 1,125,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
27.99
Market Cap: $1,276.96B
Total Debt: $14.65B
Cash: $9.64B
EBITDA: $18.49B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$141.8B
Market Cap: $1,276.96B
Total Debt: $14.65B
Cash: $9.64B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
39.8%
Gross Profit: $14.87B
Revenue: $37.38B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
26.4%
Operating Income: $9.87B
Revenue: $37.38B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
22.8%
Net Income: $8.54B
Revenue: $37.38B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
70.6%
Net Income: $8.54B
Total Equity: $54.17B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
44.0%
Operating Income: $9.87B
Tax Rate: 11.6%
Equity: $54.17B
Total Debt: $14.65B
Cash: $9.64B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
2.52
Current Assets: $28.84B
Current Liabilities: $11.45B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.27
Short-Term Debt: $634.00M
Long-Term Debt: $14.02B
Total Debt: $14.65B
Total Equity: $54.17B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$33.22
Revenue: $37.38B
Shares: 1,125,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$48.15
Total Equity: $54.17B
Shares: 1,125,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.48
Operating CF: $17.53B
CapEx: -$15.86B
Shares: 1,125,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.4%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $1,132
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $8.54B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 27, 2026 3:01am
Compares MU against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-25 12:43:26
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality cyclical - wait for a real dip 7/10
World-class HBM execution at a trillion-dollar peak-cycle price - I'm a buyer of the business, not the stock here.
The cruxWhether HBM/AI economics permanently re-rate Micron out of the commodity cycle - the only assumption that justifies $1,214 versus a $600-800 through-cycle deserved value.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from MU's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+1
Solid
edge √Σ 107 · risk √Σ 106 · conf 7/10

Micron's five-year trajectory is the textbook memory cycle: revenue swung from $27.7B (2021) to $30.8B (2022), collapsed to $15.5B with a -9.1% gross margin and -$5.83B net loss in 2023, then recovered to $25.1B (2024) and $37.4B (2025) with GM back to 39.8% and OpM 26.4%. The 2025 print is a genuine peak-cycle result with $8.54B net income, and earnings quality looks clean: OCF/NI 3.32x, accruals -10.9% of assets, Beneish -2.7, Altman Z 30.6. Dilution is well-controlled at -0.4% diluted share CAGR with buybacks 132% of SBC (2.6% of revenue).

Strengths 3
m70
Clean earnings quality at peak
OCF/NI of 3.32x, accruals -10.9% of assets, Beneish M -2.7, and Altman Z 30.6 indicate reported $8.54B net income is backed by real cash conversion, not accrual games.
m60
Capital discipline on share count
Diluted shares went from 1.14B (2021) to 1.13B (2025) - essentially flat with buyback/SBC ratio of 132%. Per-share value is being protected through the cycle.
m55
Cyclical recovery executed
Revenue rebounded from $15.5B trough to $37.4B in two years with GM swinging from -9.1% to 39.8% and OpM from -37% to 26.4%, suggesting strong operating leverage and HBM/AI memory demand capture.
Concerns 4
m75
Commodity cyclicality is structural
2023 net loss of -$5.83B and -$6.12B FCF on a 49% revenue collapse shows the business has no pricing moat in down-cycles. This is the nature of DRAM/NAND, not a fixable flaw.
m55
FCF lags reported earnings sharply
Despite $8.54B net income in 2025, FCF was only $1.67B - implying ~$15B+ in capex consuming most of operating cash. Capital intensity is enormous and the 'weak cash flow quality' flag is real.
m45
Net debt position, thin liquidity cushion
Net cash of -$4.34B and cash/mktcap of only 0.8% means the balance sheet is a constraint heading into the next downturn, especially given 2023 burned $6B of FCF.
m25
CEO selling into strength
CEO Mehrotra executed numerous S-sales on 2026-05-29 totaling several million dollars; pattern is consistent with scheduled 10b5-1 sales at peak earnings, not alarming but no insider conviction buys.
This is a high-quality operator inside a structurally cyclical commodity business. The accounting is clean, the share count discipline is real, and management clearly executed well on the HBM/AI memory pivot to turn a -$5.8B loss year into an $8.5B profit year. But I cannot call this 'Strong' or better because the 2023 trough is right there in the data - the business genuinely lost $6B of FCF in a single down year, and capital intensity means even peak earnings only convert to $1.67B of FCF. It's a well-run cyclical, not a fortress compounder. Solid is the honest grade.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • HBM revenue mix and customer concentration (NVIDIA/hyperscaler exposure) in latest 10-K
  • Capex guidance vs. depreciation - is 2026 capex sustainable through a potential cycle peak
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenant terms given net debt position
  • Whether Mehrotra sales were 10b5-1 pre-scheduled or discretionary
  • Inventory days trend - building inventory ahead of a downturn would be a quality flag
Valuation / Mispricing
-96
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 116 · conf 6/10
Price $1,214 vs deserved roughly $600-800 on through-cycle math - stock is ~50-100% above what a cyclical leader deserves. attractive below $750.00

Market cap is roughly $1.37 trillion against a business that just printed an $8.5B profit year coming off a $5.8B loss year. That is a ~160x trailing earnings multiple on peak-of-cycle earnings for a commodity memory maker - the math only works if you believe HBM/AI demand permanently re-rates Micron into a structural duopolist with sustained 30%+ operating margins through cycles. That is the bull narrative fully capitalized into the price. Even generous through-cycle math (say $15-20B normalized earnings several years out, 20-25x multiple appropriate for a cyclical leader) gets you to roughly $400-600B market cap, not $1.37T. Deserved value sits well below spot. The Company-Quality lens explicitly refused to grade this above 'Solid' because the 2023 trough is right there - paying a secular-compounder multiple for a Solid cyclical is the textbook setup for poor forward returns. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut there, but high-quality reporting of peak-cycle numbers does not make peak-cycle numbers sustainable. The gap is not catastrophic - HBM economics are genuinely better than legacy DRAM - but the price already assumes the cycle has been abolished.

Cheap signals 1
m20
HBM mix shift is real
The HBM/AI memory pivot genuinely changes unit economics versus prior cycles; some premium over historical Micron multiples is defensible - just not this much.
Rich / priced-in 3
m75
Peak-cycle multiple on cyclical earnings
$1.37T cap on $8.5B trailing profit is ~160x earnings; even forward $15-20B normalized earnings imply a 70-90x P/E - extreme for any business, absurd for a commodity cyclical that lost $6B in FCF two years ago.
m70
AI permanence fully priced in
The bull case (HBM bottleneck, structural duopoly pricing, multi-year AI capex) is the only narrative that justifies this level; there is no margin of safety if Chinese DRAM supply, hyperscaler capex digestion, or HBM commoditization arrives.
m55
Quality lens caps deserved multiple
Company-Quality scored this 'Solid' (1), not Strong or Exceptional, explicitly citing structural commodity risk. A Solid cyclical deserves a 15-20x through-cycle multiple, not the 40x+ implied here.
I cannot make the numbers work at $1,214. The market is paying a secular-compounder price for a Solid cyclical that printed a multi-billion loss two years ago. Even if I grant the full HBM/AI structural story and assume normalized earnings ramp to $20B, I get a fair value materially below spot. I would need to see this in the $700-800 range before the cyclical math even starts to look reasonable, and closer to $600 to get a real margin of safety. Quality is not the issue - price is. This is a 'wait' or trim, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • HBM3E/HBM4 capacity allocation and ASP trajectory in next 10-Q
  • DRAM and NAND bit shipment guidance and pricing commentary
  • Capex guide vs free cash flow - is the AI build self-funding?
  • Hyperscaler customer concentration disclosure
  • Inventory days trend - early warning for cycle rollover
General Sentiment
+51
Tailwind
tail √Σ 124 · head √Σ 74 · conf 7/10

Sentiment on MU is firmly positive right now. The active narrative casts Micron as a primary AI-infrastructure beneficiary via HBM and advanced DRAM, and analyst tone is loudly confirming it: 57 Buys against just 2 Sells, 35 target revisions this month with an average target of $1,444 versus a $1,214 spot, and a consensus target nearly 23% above price. Momentum is screaming - 55% CAGR, +60pp over three years - which itself attracts trend-following flows and keeps the cult-of-AI bid alive on every dip. The macro tape is only mildly supportive: regime is neutral, VIX low-to-mid teens, but 10y at 4.41% and a 2.17 beta mean any risk-off lurch hits MU roughly twice as hard as the index. The narrative is tagged fragile and late-cycle, so the real sentiment risk is not today's tape but a crack in the AI-memory story (pricing data, hyperscaler capex guide, a Samsung HBM win). Until that crack appears, the pressure on this specific name is net upward - analysts are still chasing, not fading.

Tailwinds 3
m78
AI-memory narrative bid
MU is the cleanest US-listed memory play on the AI capex story; the archetype is moderate-intensity but the cohort (HBM, advanced DRAM) is where incremental sentiment dollars flow.
m72
Aggressive analyst upward revisions
35 revisions this month with avg target $1,444 (19% above spot) and a Buy-heavy 57/11/2 split - sell-side is actively chasing the move, not fading it, which sustains flows.
m65
Strong trend / momentum reflexivity
55% CAGR and +60pp 3y outperformance feed systematic and trend-following demand; in a neutral tape, winners keep winning until the narrative cracks.
Headwinds 3
m45
High beta into a fragile tape
Beta 2.17 with S&P already -3.3% off highs and 10y at 4.41% means any risk-off flare will mark MU down disproportionately, even without company-specific news.
m50
Fragile late-cycle narrative
Cyclical-late-stage archetype with fragile durability - the story depends on 'this cycle is different.' One soft DRAM pricing print or hyperscaler capex trim could flip sentiment hard and fast given how far targets have been chased.
m30
Recent vs long-term momentum cooling
Recent 48.9% trailing the 55.1% long-term CAGR hints the narrative thrust is moderating - not a break, but a yellow flag for momentum chasers.
Net pressure is clearly to the upside right now: the AI-memory narrative is alive, analysts are chasing with fresh upward revisions, and momentum is feeding on itself in a neutral (not hostile) tape. I'd call this a Tailwind, not Strong Tailwind, because the narrative is explicitly flagged fragile and late-cycle and beta 2.17 makes MU a coiled spring if the tape turns. As long as DRAM pricing prints cooperate and hyperscaler capex commentary stays firm, sentiment keeps pushing this name higher - but this is a sentiment regime that can flip in a single bad data point, so I'd respect the tailwind without overstaying it.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • DRAM/NAND spot and contract pricing trend over next 4-8 weeks
  • Hyperscaler (MSFT, META, GOOG, AMZN) capex commentary on next earnings cycle
  • Samsung/SK Hynix HBM3e qualification wins that could erode MU's share-of-narrative
  • Any VIX spike above 22 or 10y push above 4.6% - high-beta semis would lead the drawdown
  • Pace of upward target revisions - if it stalls, the analyst tailwind fades fast
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 27, 2026 3:04:57 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
Average FCF is negative — DCF not applicable
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
Average FCF is negative
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $27.7B $30.8B $15.5B $25.1B $37.4B
Cost of Revenue $17.3B $16.9B $17.0B $19.5B $22.5B
Gross Profit $10.4B $13.9B -$1.4B $5.6B $14.9B
Operating Expenses $4.2B $4.2B $4.3B $4.3B $5.0B
Operating Income $6.3B $9.7B -$5.7B $1.3B $9.9B
Net Income $5.9B $8.7B -$5.8B $778.0M $8.5B
EBITDA $12.9B $16.7B $2.2B $8.9B $18.5B
EPS $5.23 $7.81 $-5.34 $0.70 $7.65
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:03am (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $7.8B $8.3B $8.6B $7.0B $9.6B
Total Current Assets $19.9B $21.8B $21.2B $24.4B $28.8B
Total Assets $58.8B $66.3B $64.3B $69.4B $82.8B
Current Liabilities $6.4B $7.5B $4.8B $9.2B $11.5B
Long-Term Debt $6.0B $6.0B $11.9B $11.2B $14.0B
Total Liabilities $14.9B $16.4B $20.1B $24.3B $28.6B
Total Equity $43.9B $49.9B $44.1B $45.1B $54.2B
Retained Earnings $39.1B $47.3B $40.8B $40.9B $48.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:03am (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $12.5B $15.2B $1.6B $8.5B $17.5B
Capital Expenditure -$10.0B -$12.1B -$7.7B -$8.4B -$15.9B
Free Cash Flow $2.4B $3.1B -$6.1B $121.0M $1.7B
Acquisitions (net) $10.0B $888.0M $7.7B $0 $0
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$1.2B -$2.4B -$425.0M -$300.0M $0
Net Change in Cash $139.0M $510.0M $317.0M -$1.6B $2.6B
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 3:00am (5h ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $222.9B
$163.2B – $278.1B
 $242.7B
$173.2B – $297.6B
 $405.0B
$289.0B – $496.7B
 $479.0B
$341.9B – $587.4B
EBITDA $111.4B
$81.6B – $139.1B
 $121.3B
$86.6B – $148.8B
 $202.5B
$144.5B – $248.3B
 $239.5B
$170.9B – $293.7B
Net Income $132.4B
$101.4B – $196.0B
 $125.7B
$83.2B – $217.0B
 $254.6B
$159.8B – $329.5B
 $297.8B
$186.9B – $385.4B
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 22, 2026 3:04am (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +11.0% -49.5% +61.6% +48.9%
Gross Profit Growth +33.3% -110.2% +496.4% +165.0%
Operating Income Growth +54.4% -159.2% +122.7% +656.9%
Net Income Growth +48.2% -167.1% +113.3% +997.6%
EBITDA Growth +29.5% -86.8% +304.5% +106.8%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 3:03am (5h ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-06-09 Bjorlin Alexis A-Award 63.00 $0.00 $0
2026-06-09 Bjorlin Alexis 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 560.00 $973.75 $545,300
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 550.00 $974.44 $535,942
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 661.00 $975.57 $644,852
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 166.00 $976.75 $162,141
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 544.00 $977.95 $532,005
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 80.00 $979.37 $78,350
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 105.00 $942.14 $98,925
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 175.00 $943.09 $165,041
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 349.00 $944.17 $329,515
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 182.00 $945.15 $172,017
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 350.00 $946.76 $331,366
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 400.00 $947.56 $379,024
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 1,026.00 $948.53 $973,192
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 679.00 $949.78 $644,901
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 789.00 $951.20 $750,497
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 887.00 $952.16 $844,566
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 2,268.00 $953.23 $2.2M
2026-05-29 MEHROTRA SANJAY S-Sale 1,196.00 $954.28 $1.1M
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 24, 2026 3:44pm (2d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-03-30 $0.15 2026-03-18 2026-03-30 2026-04-15
2025-12-29 $0.12 2025-12-17 2025-12-29 2026-01-14
2025-10-03 $0.12 2025-09-23 2025-10-03 2025-10-21
2025-07-07 $0.12 2025-06-25 2025-07-07 2025-07-22
2025-03-31 $0.12 2025-03-20 2025-03-31 2025-04-15
2024-12-30 $0.12 2024-12-18 2024-12-30 2025-01-15
2024-10-07 $0.12 2024-09-25 2024-10-07 2024-10-23
2024-07-08 $0.12 2024-06-26 2024-07-08 2024-07-23
2024-03-28 $0.12 2024-03-20 2024-04-01 2024-04-16
2023-12-29 $0.12 2023-12-20 2024-01-02 2024-01-18
2023-10-06 $0.12 2023-09-27 2023-10-10 2023-10-25
2023-07-07 $0.12 2023-06-28 2023-07-10 2023-07-25
2023-04-06 $0.12 2023-03-28 2023-04-10 2023-04-25
2022-12-30 $0.12 2022-12-21 2023-01-03 2023-01-19
2022-10-07 $0.12 2022-09-29 2022-10-11 2022-10-26
2022-07-08 $0.12 2022-06-30 2022-07-11 2022-07-26
2022-04-08 $0.10 2022-03-29 2022-04-11 2022-04-26
2021-12-31 $0.10 2021-12-17 2022-01-03 2022-01-18
2021-09-30 $0.10 2021-08-02 2021-10-01 2021-10-18
1996-05-07 $0.05 1996-04-29 1996-05-09 1996-05-31
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for MU — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-27 03:05:32
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Late-cycle peak — fair value $550-750 on mid-cycle normalization; current $1,132 prices in HBM-as-monopoly assumptions that 20 years of memory history contradict. Trim or avoid; revisit after next two prints confirm or break the margin thesis.

The raw numbers tell a story that the prior models are partially mis-framing. Quarterly revenue went from $6.81B (May 2024) to $23.86B (Feb 2026) — a 3.5x ramp in 21 months — with net margin going from 4.9% to 57.8%. A 57.8% net margin on a memory manufacturer is not "cyclical recovery"; it's a number that has essentially never been printed in this industry's history. Even peak-cycle Micron in FY2022 ran ~28% net margin on $30.8B revenue. The Feb 2026 quarter annualizes to ~$95B revenue and ~$55B net income. At $1.28T market cap, that's ~13x annualized peak earnings — which sounds cheap until you ask whether that quarter is real or a reporting artifact, and whether 57.8% net margins on commodity DRAM/NAND can persist for even two more quarters.

Here's where I diverge from the synthesis verdict. The "Disconnected from Fundamentals" call leans on stale framing — it cites 34x sales and 148x earnings, but on the Feb 2026 print the multiples are roughly 13x sales and 23x annualized earnings. The TTM P/E of 25.3 in the canonical block confirms this. The synthesis says Micron needs to "grow revenue 4x to $150B to justify $1.3T" — but at the current quarterly run-rate they're already at ~$95B annualized. So the bear math is wrong on the arithmetic, even if directionally right on the cycle risk. The real question isn't valuation-vs-fundamentals today; it's whether Feb 2026's $23.86B/57.8% margin print is sustainable or a blow-off top. FCF of only $1.67B on $17.5B operating cash flow (capex of $15.86B) tells you management is plowing everything back in — which is exactly what every memory CEO does at the cycle peak before the bust.

The contrarian-to-the-bears argument: HBM is genuinely structurally different from commodity DRAM. It's qualified per-customer (NVIDIA, AMD), capacity is multi-year constrained, and Micron is one of three players (with SK Hynix and Samsung). If 40-50% of revenue is HBM at 60%+ gross margins locked in LTAs through 2027, the cycle-reversion thesis weakens materially. But the contrarian-to-the-bulls argument is stronger: insider activity shows only sales (eight S-Sale entries on May 29, 2026, no offsetting buys), the $15.9B capex is industry-wide — Samsung and Hynix are ramping equally hard, and historically every memory upcycle has ended with supply response within 18 months of peak pricing. The Market Forces "50-60% downside" call is plausible but the timing is the entire trade.

I dissent from "Disconnected from Fundamentals" as written — the multiples cited don't match the data — but I agree with the underlying caution. At $1,132 and $1.28T market cap, you're paying ~23x current annualized peak earnings for a company whose 5-year average earnings (including the -$5.83B 2023 loss) is roughly $3.6B annually. Mid-cycle fair value is probably $400-550 (15-20x mid-cycle earnings of ~$25-30B), peak-cycle justified value is maybe $900-1,000 if you believe HBM persistence, and current price embeds the assumption that Feb 2026 margins hold for 4+ more quarters. Insiders selling at the print, FCF conversion weak, capex at all-time highs across the industry — this is the textbook setup for a top, not a re-rating. I'd be a seller here or short with a tight stop above $1,250; I would not be a buyer until either (a) two more quarters confirm margin durability or (b) price retraces to the $650-750 range where mid-cycle math works.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-27 03:05:42
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus that the current valuation at $1,132 is predicated on unsustainable margins; however, I see fair value closer to $700-800, reflecting some allowance for HBM's differentiated status but anticipating a cyclical correction.

Micron Technology's recent financial performance is undeniably impressive, with quarterly revenues skyrocketing from $6.81 billion in May 2024 to $23.86 billion in February 2026, and net margins expanding from a mere 4.9% to an unprecedented 57.8%. This rapid growth, paired with a current market cap of $1.28 trillion, suggests that the market is pricing in a prolonged boom driven by AI-related demand, particularly in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) sector. However, the sustainability of these margins, given Micron's historical volatility and the inherent cyclicality of the semiconductor industry, is highly questionable. The company's operating cash flow of $17.53 billion against a free cash flow of only $1.67 billion, due to $15.86 billion in capex, underscores the significant reinvestment required to sustain such growth.

Opus's analysis correctly highlights the extraordinary nature of Micron's recent margin performance, questioning its durability given the industry's track record. I concur with Opus on the unsustainable nature of the 57.8% net margin in a commodity-driven business, considering historical peaks have been significantly lower. Where I diverge slightly is on the valuation perspective. Opus emphasizes that the market's current pricing assumes the persistence of these peak margins, citing a mid-cycle fair value of $550-750. I would argue, based on the current price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 25.3 and the annualized earnings from the latest quarter, that the market may be somewhat optimistic but not as disconnected from fundamentals as Opus suggests. The TTM P/E ratio and current valuation imply that the market is pricing in continued growth, albeit perhaps not as drastically as the synthesis verdict claims.

While Opus points out the structural differences of HBM compared to traditional DRAM, which could justify a deviation from historical cycles, the insider sales activity and industry-wide capex hikes signal caution. I agree that these factors point to a potential cyclical peak rather than a structural transformation, making the "50-60% downside" projection plausible. However, I think the timing of this correction is uncertain, and the narrative around AI-driven demand could sustain elevated pricing longer than typical cycles.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are underestimating the potential for AI to fundamentally alter demand dynamics in the semiconductor sector. They could posit that the unique characteristics of AI infrastructure demand might indeed lead to a new normal for memory pricing and margins, challenging the conventional cyclical framework. However, the historical precedent and current market signals suggest caution.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30