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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Cloudflare Inc. (NET) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -27 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 26 · Value -79 · Sentiment 70 (timing only, not weighted)
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Cloudflare Inc.
NET NYSECloudflare Inc. is a technology company that provides cloud-based networking and security services designed to improve the security, performance, and reliability of internet applications. Its core platform sits between a customer’s infrastructure and end users, delivering content and security functions from a globally distributed network. Cloudflare offers web application firewall capabilities, DDoS protection, bot management, and zero-trust security solutions that help organizations protect websites, APIs, and internal applications. The company also delivers performance and reliability services such as content delivery, intelligent routing, and optimization tools, as well as developer-focused products including its Workers edge computing platform, domain registration, and a marketplace for integrations. Cloudflare serves businesses of various sizes across sectors that rely on fast, secure, and always-available digital experiences. Founded in 2009 and headquartered in San Francisco, California, Cloudflare plays a significant role in modern internet infrastructure by enabling secure and efficient delivery of digital services.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -0.29
Total Equity: $1.46B
Shares: 348,421,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $943.54M
EBITDA: -$17.46M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $943.54M
Revenue: $2.17B
Shares: 348,421,000
Revenue: $2.17B
Revenue: $2.17B
Revenue: $2.17B
Total Equity: $1.46B
Tax Rate: -10.3%
Equity: $1.46B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $943.54M
Current Liabilities: $2.35B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $1.46B
Shares: 348,421,000
Shares: 348,421,000
CapEx: -$315.62M
Shares: 348,421,000
Stock Price: $300.27
Net Income: -$102.27M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 3:58pm (22d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $656.4M | $975.2M | $1.3B | $1.7B | $2.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $147.1M | $232.6M | $307.0M | $378.7M | $552.5M |
| Gross Profit | $509.3M | $742.6M | $989.7M | $1.3B | $1.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $637.0M | $943.8M | $1.2B | $1.4B | $1.8B |
| Operating Income | -$127.7M | -$201.2M | -$185.5M | -$154.8M | -$207.2M |
| Net Income | -$260.3M | -$193.4M | -$183.9M | -$78.8M | -$102.3M |
| EBITDA | -$61.1M | -$98.9M | -$49.7M | -$27.0M | -$17.5M |
| EPS | $-0.83 | $-0.59 | $-0.55 | $-0.23 | $-0.29 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.83 | $-0.59 | $-0.55 | $-0.23 | $-0.29 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:32am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $313.8M | $204.2M | $86.9M | $147.7M | $943.5M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.0B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $4.6B |
| Total Assets | $2.4B | $2.6B | $2.8B | $3.3B | $6.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $288.6M | $397.9M | $567.1M | $793.7M | $2.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.3B | $4.6B |
| Total Equity | $815.8M | $624.0M | $763.0M | $1.0B | $1.5B |
| Retained Earnings | -$680.8M | -$839.9M | -$1.0B | -$1.1B | -$1.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:32am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $64.6M | $123.6M | $254.4M | $380.4M | $603.1M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$93.0M | -$143.6M | -$114.4M | -$185.0M | -$315.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$28.3M | -$20.0M | $140.0M | $195.4M | $287.5M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$5.6M | -$88.2M | -$6.1M | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $-189,000 | $-3,000 | $-34,000 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | $202.8M | -$105.8M | -$124.0M | $63.0M | $800.1M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 3:58pm (22d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +48.6% | +33.0% | +28.8% | +29.8% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +45.8% | +33.3% | +30.4% | +25.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | -57.6% | +7.8% | +16.6% | -33.9% |
| Net Income Growth | +25.7% | +4.9% | +57.2% | -29.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | -61.9% | +49.8% | +45.6% | +35.4% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 09:44Even the bull case prices 93% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 100%. Caveat: the company is pre-profit — scenario margins are a glide-path assumption, not a track record.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($300.27) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +54% | 9.2% | $19.83 | -93% |
| Base — stabilizes | +36% | 8.0% | $10.35 | -97% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +18% | 6.8% | $4.88 | -98% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +36% | -8.2% | $0.00 | -100% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Working through the raw numbers first: revenue is $639.8M in Q1 2026, up 29.9% YoY from ~$492M implied, with sequential prints of $512→$562→$614→$640M — that's 4-5% sequential, roughly 20% annualized on the most recent step, so the "decelerating" flag is real. Full-year 2025 was $2.17B, +30% over $1.67B. Gross margin sits at 74.5%, which is fine but not Zscaler-caliber (78-80%) and hasn't expanded — it's actually compressed slightly from 77% in 2023. Operating margin remains -9.6% GAAP; the $287.5M FCF on $2.17B revenue (13% FCF margin) is the one genuinely bullish datapoint, though capex of $316M nearly matches operating CF at $603M, meaning the "FCF" is heavily dependent on stock-based comp add-backs. Net losses widened in the most recent quarter (-$22.9M vs -$1.3M two quarters prior), which contradicts the "path to profitability" story the sell side loves.
At $300 and $106.6B market cap on $2.17B trailing revenue, this is 49x sales. To justify that with a 10% FCF yield in year 10 at a 25x multiple, Cloudflare needs roughly $17B of revenue at 25% FCF margins — that's 8x current revenue at margins the company has never demonstrated and that gross margin trajectory doesn't support. The synthesis and thesis-evaluation layers converge on this math correctly (thesis score -8, market-forces neutral-negative, narrative layer flags 75% of price as story). I largely agree with the direction but think the models are being too diplomatic — a -8 thesis score with bear weights of 82/76 on the top two objections is not "neutral," it's a soft sell dressed up as balance. The insider tape is also worth naming plainly: seven sales on 2026-07-17 alone, no offsetting opens, and no buying anywhere in the visible window. Calling that "Neutral Insider Activity" is generous.
The contrarian case I'd steelman: Cloudflare's Workers/R2/D1 stack is genuinely differentiated on developer experience, and if AI inference actually migrates to edge (a real if), NET has distribution that AWS Lambda@Edge doesn't. FCF inflected from negative to $287M in two years — a 43% FCF CAGR is not nothing. And the platform's dollar-based net retention has historically stayed 110%+, meaning the installed base compounds without new-logo heroics. If revenue holds 28-30% for three more years, that's $4.6B by 2028, and at a still-rich 20x sales that's $92B — roughly flat from here. So the bull doesn't need heroic assumptions to defend the current price, just no deceleration and eventual 20%+ operating margins. That said, sequential deceleration is already visible in the tape ($562→$614 was +9.3% QoQ, $614→$640 was +4.1%), and the gross margin isn't expanding to fund the operating leverage story.
Where the data is thin: we have no debt line (shown as em-dash — Cloudflare does carry ~$1.3B of convertible notes, so the "debt_to_equity: 0" is wrong and the model shouldn't be leaning on it), SBC isn't broken out but is clearly the delta between $603M operating CF and -$102M net income, and the "2026-Q1" dating suggests we're reading data timestamped into the future — either a data-source artifact or these are calendar-shifted labels. The insider transactions all lack named filers, which limits interpretive value. My verdict: I dissent mildly from the synthesis "High Conviction Required" hedge and land closer to overvalued-but-quality. Fair value using 25x forward sales on $2.8B 2026E revenue is ~$70B, or roughly $195-210/share — a 30-35% haircut from $300. That's not a short (the narrative durability is real, and platform stocks can stay unanchored for years), but it's not a buy at 49x sales with decelerating sequentials, compressing gross margin, widening GAAP losses, and steady insider distribution. I'd want to see either $220 on a growth-scare drawdown or four quarters of gross margin expansion above 76% before adding.
GPT Reading
At $300, Cloudflare is being valued on what it might become rather than what it is, and the gap is still extreme. The operating business is clearly strong: revenue went from $1.30B in 2023 to $1.67B in 2024 and $2.17B in 2025, while the most recent quarter hit $639.8M, up 33.5% from $479.1M a year earlier. That is not a broken growth story. Gross margin of 74.5% is also good enough to support a very profitable software model at scale. But the key thing that stands out to me is that all of the valuation forgiveness is already being granted before the company has actually demonstrated durable operating leverage. In 2025, revenue grew 29.9%, yet operating loss still widened to -$207.2M from -$154.8M in 2024. Net loss also increased to -$102.3M from -$78.8M. Quarterly net margins have improved from around -8% to roughly breakeven in late 2025, but the latest quarter slipped back to -3.6%. For a $106.6B market cap company, “almost profitable” is not enough.
The cash flow line is the main bullish rebuttal, but I think investors are overusing it. Operating cash flow of $603.1M and free cash flow of $287.5M in 2025 look healthy on the surface, especially with $943.5M of cash and no debt. Yet capex was a very real -$315.6M, which means this is not an asset-light pure software business in the way the multiple implies. A company trading at 48.3x sales and 47.8x EV/revenue should ideally be showing either much faster growth than ~30% or much clearer margin inflection than a -9.6% operating margin. Instead, we have a business that still requires meaningful infrastructure investment and has not converted scale into GAAP earnings. If I annualize the latest quarter, revenue is running around $2.56B. At today’s enterprise value, investors are still paying roughly low-40s times forward revenue for a business growing in the low-30s with negative net income. That is elite-software pricing without elite-software profitability.
What the numbers really say is that Cloudflare is an excellent company but a dangerous stock at this price. The recent quarterly progression is respectable—$401.0M, $430.1M, $459.9M, $479.1M, $512.3M, $562.0M, $614.5M, $639.8M—but not explosive enough to validate a valuation that effectively assumes years of premium growth plus major margin expansion. To justify $106B fundamentally, I think you need to underwrite at least a path to $10B+ revenue with 25%+ operating margins over time; that would imply $2.5B of operating income someday. Maybe Cloudflare gets there, but today it is producing quarterly net losses and annual operating losses above $200M. The market is capitalizing certainty where the income statement still shows aspiration. My base case is that the business keeps executing, but the stock can still be a poor investment because even strong execution may fail to outrun the starting multiple.
The strongest case against my view is straightforward: the company is compounding at roughly 30%, gross margin is already 75%, free cash flow is solidly positive, the balance sheet is pristine, and losses as a percent of revenue have improved materially from 2022-2023 levels. On that view, 2025 is the messy middle of a transition where the network and go-to-market are being built ahead of monetization, and once utilization improves the operating model could snap into place quickly. The quarterly net loss trend does support that argument more than the annual numbers do: from -$38.5M in 2025-03 to -$1.3M in 2025-09 was real progress before some backsliding. A smart bull would also argue that revenue reaccelerated from 29.2% in 2025 Q4 versus 33.5% in 2026 Q1, which matters if the market is paying for platform optionality. I weigh those points differently because at 40x+ forward revenue, you do not get paid for “could.” You need evidence that margin expansion is becoming routine, not intermittent.
What would change my mind is not another quarter of 30%-plus growth by itself. I would need to see two things together: sustained growth above 30% and a clean step-function in profitability. Specifically, if Cloudflare can push quarterly revenue into the $700M+ range over the next few quarters while holding GAAP net margin around breakeven or better and annualized operating margin moves toward positive mid-single digits, then the current multiple starts to look less detached. Conversely, if growth slips into the mid-20s while operating losses remain around the current run-rate, the stock should de-rate hard because there is no valuation floor here. Until the income statement catches up, I see a superb business priced as if the hard part is already done.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Cloudflare is scaling impressively: revenue compounded from $656M (2021) to $2.17B (2025), roughly 35% CAGR, with gross margins parked in a healthy 74-77% band consistent with a genuine software/network platform. Operating margin has climbed from -19.5% to -9.6% and FCF has flipped from -$28M to +$287.5M over four years, so operating leverage is real and the business is now self-funding. Liquidity is strong: $943.5M cash, zero net debt, Altman Z of 14.39, and accruals of -13.5% of assets with OCF materially exceeding net income - earnings quality mechanics look clean.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Net revenue retention and large-customer concentration disclosed in 10-K
- Trajectory of SBC as % of revenue - is it declining with scale or sticky at 20%+?
- Any convertible debt or off-balance-sheet obligations not visible in net cash figure
- Segment/product mix - how much of growth is Workers/AI/Zero Trust vs. legacy CDN
- 10b5-1 plan disclosures to confirm insider sales are pre-scheduled rather than discretionary
- Capex trajectory relative to revenue - is FCF conversion sustainable as AI/edge buildout continues?
Cloudflare trades at ~$300 for a $106.6B market cap on roughly $2B of trailing revenue - that's a ~50x sales multiple for a business that is still GAAP unprofitable and dilutes shareholders by ~20.8% of revenue in SBC. The e2e synthesis is blunt: the price embeds a 5x revenue ramp to $11B+ paired with 30%+ margins the platform has never demonstrated. Even granting the Solid quality grade, a fortress balance sheet, and a real FCF inflection, the deserved value here is materially below spot. To justify $300, you need near-flawless execution on both growth (sustained 30%+ for many years) AND a margin structure the company has yet to prove at scale.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward revenue guidance and whether 30%+ growth is sustained past $2B run-rate
- Operating margin trajectory ex-SBC and path to GAAP profitability
- Net dollar retention and large-customer (>$100k) cohort growth
- SBC as % of revenue trend - is dilution decelerating
- Any one-time items inflating recent FCF
The sentiment stack is aligned to the upside on this specific name. A risk-on tape (VIX 14.9, S&P at record) meets a softer jobs print that just knocked back rate-hike odds - and NET's 1.66 beta means it gets an outsized lift from that combination. On top of that macro push, the stock just printed a fresh record on an 8.2% earnings-day jump, with the 'majority-machine internet' headline handing the platform-monopoly narrative a made-for-tape hook (AI agents, edge, Workers). That is the definition of narrative and tape rowing in the same direction. Analyst and press tone has flipped from the May bruising (the 20% workforce cut and -23.75% day) to 'software rewarding fundamentals again,' with NET named alongside Atlassian and Twilio as the poster children of the rally. The bear frame (middleware in a hyperscaler-crowded market, ~75% of cap is narrative) is dormant, not resolved - which is exactly when sentiment pressure is strongest. The one real counterweight is that 10y at 4.69% and market PE 26 are structurally hostile to a name where the story does the heavy lifting; any hot inflation print or hawkish Fed line could snap the multiple fast. But right now, the net pressure on NET is decisively upward.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Next CPI/PCE print - a hot number would hit high-beta software first and NET hardest
- Whether sell-side price targets get revised up post-print (confirms the tone flip) or stay static (fades it)
- Durability of the 'agentic internet / machine traffic' hook - is it in every note in 2 weeks, or a one-day headline
- Any competitive news from hyperscalers on edge/Workers-equivalent offerings that could reawaken the middleware-bear frame
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 8, 2026, NET was $300.27. We expect it to be $285.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $190.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 8, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.