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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 12, 2026
11 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 12, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 7 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Nike, Inc. - Class B (NKE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -35 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -3 · Value -61 · Sentiment -49 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $29.52 vs $41.32 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Nike, Inc. - Class B

NKE NYSE
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Beaverton, OR 97005-6453, United States nike.com Updated Aug 11, 12:37pm
Price
$40.99
Market Cap
$62.5B
Employees
73,000
Beta
1.12
Avg Volume
24,018,390
Last Dividend
$1.63
CEO
Mr. Elliott J. Hill

Nike, Inc. Class B is a consumer discretionary company focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment, and related services. The company serves a broad global customer base through performance and lifestyle products that support sports, fitness, and everyday wear. Its business is centered on footwear, with additional offerings spanning apparel and accessories across categories such as running, basketball, football, training, and casual sportswear. Nike also operates through brand and regional segments that help it address major markets across North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific and Latin America. Based in Beaverton, Oregon, Nike, Inc. Class B is a widely recognized name in the global sportswear market and plays a major role in shaping athletic and lifestyle apparel trends.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 12, 2026 12:20am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$41.32
as of Aug 12, 12:31am (11d ago)
Change · Aug 12
-0.79 (-1.88%)
Day Range
$40.83 – $41.49
52-Week Range
$40.00 – $80.17
50-Day MA
$43.06
200-Day MA
$53.65
Volume
23,489,643.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 11d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 1,483,498,703.00
Float 1,158,790,507.00
Free Float 78.1%
Normal free float — 78.1% of shares trade freely, ~21.9% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:42am (11d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:12pm (16d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 12, 2026 12:17am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
19.52
Stock Price: $40.99
EPS (Diluted): 2.10
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
4.08
Stock Price: $40.99
Total Equity: $14.87B
Shares: 1,481,000,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
13.43
Market Cap: $62.47B
Total Debt: $7.94B
Cash: $7.56B
EBITDA: $4.54B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$61.0B
Market Cap: $62.47B
Total Debt: $7.94B
Cash: $7.56B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
42.9%
Gross Profit: $19.91B
Revenue: $46.40B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
8.2%
Operating Income: $3.80B
Revenue: $46.40B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
6.7%
Net Income: $3.11B
Revenue: $46.40B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
20.9%
Net Income: $3.11B
Total Equity: $14.87B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
19.8%
Operating Income: $3.80B
Tax Rate: 20.3%
Equity: $14.87B
Total Debt: $7.94B
Cash: $7.56B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.96
Current Assets: $24.60B
Current Liabilities: $12.55B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.53
Short-Term Debt: $2.00B
Long-Term Debt: $5.94B
Total Debt: $7.94B
Total Equity: $14.87B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$31.33
Revenue: $46.40B
Shares: 1,481,000,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$10.04
Total Equity: $14.87B
Shares: 1,481,000,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$1.47
Operating CF: $2.87B
CapEx: -$684.00M
Shares: 1,481,000,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
4.0%
Last Dividend: $1.63
Stock Price: $40.99
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $3.11B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 12, 2026 12:16am
Compares NKE against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:12pm (16d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue $46.7B $51.2B $51.4B $46.3B $46.4B
Cost of Revenue $25.2B $28.9B $28.5B $26.5B $26.5B
Gross Profit $21.5B $22.3B $22.9B $19.8B $19.9B
Operating Expenses $14.8B $16.4B $16.6B $16.1B $16.1B
Operating Income $6.7B $5.9B $6.3B $3.7B $3.8B
Net Income $6.0B $5.1B $5.7B $3.2B $3.1B
EBITDA $6.6B $7.1B $4.5B $4.5B
EPS $3.83 $3.27 $3.76 $2.17 $2.10
EPS (Diluted) $3.75 $3.23 $3.73 $2.16 $2.10
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:37pm (12d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash & Equivalents $8.6B $7.4B $9.9B $7.5B $7.6B
Total Current Assets $28.2B $25.2B $25.4B $23.4B $24.6B
Total Assets $40.3B $37.5B $38.1B $36.6B $38.4B
Current Liabilities $10.7B $9.3B $10.6B $10.6B $12.5B
Long-Term Debt $8.9B $8.9B $7.9B $8.0B $5.9B
Total Liabilities $25.0B $23.5B $23.7B $23.4B $23.5B
Total Equity $15.3B $14.0B $14.4B $13.2B $14.9B
Retained Earnings $3.5B $1.4B $965.0M -$727.0M -$155.0M
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:12pm (16d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Operating Cash Flow $5.2B $5.8B $7.4B $3.7B $2.9B
Capital Expenditure -$758.0M -$969.0M -$812.0M -$430.0M -$684.0M
Free Cash Flow $4.4B $4.9B $6.6B $3.3B $2.2B
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 -$500.0M $0 -$1.0B $0
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$4.0B -$5.5B -$4.3B -$3.0B -$146.0M
Net Change in Cash -$1.3B -$1.1B $2.4B -$2.4B $99.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:12pm (16d ago)
Metric 2023 2024 2025 2026
Revenue Growth +9.6% +0.3% -9.8% +0.2%
Gross Profit Growth +3.8% +2.7% -13.5% +0.6%
Operating Income Growth -11.4% +6.7% -41.3% +2.6%
Net Income Growth -16.1% +12.4% -43.5% -3.4%
EBITDA Growth +7.4% -37.0% +1.5%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:38pm (12d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-01 $0.41
2026-03-02 $0.41
2025-12-01 $0.41
2025-09-02 $0.40
2025-06-02 $0.40
2025-03-03 $0.40
2024-12-02 $0.40
2024-09-03 $0.37
2024-06-03 $0.37
2024-03-01 $0.37
2023-12-01 $0.37
2023-09-01 $0.34
2023-06-02 $0.34
2023-03-03 $0.34
2022-12-02 $0.34
2022-09-02 $0.31
2022-06-03 $0.31
2022-03-04 $0.31
2021-12-03 $0.31
2021-08-27 $0.28
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for NKE — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-12
The creme is there an opportunity here? Neutral
AI is not the reason to own or avoid Nike — it is a modest margin tool inside a brand-heat problem AI cannot fix, and a quiet accelerant of the competitive fragmentation already costing Nike share.
Exposure 37 and position 54: the honest read is that AI touches the periphery — demand planning, allocation, generative creative — where the dollar leverage is real against an 8.2% operating margin, but it does nothing for the variable that actually decides the outcome, which is whether the swoosh is culturally wanted at full price. The bear-bull spread (33-68) is driven by entrant compression at 31: cheap intelligence lowers the fixed cost of building a rival brand, and Nike is already growing 0.2% into a 4.8% industry. Watch markdown rate and gross margin toward 46% as the tell that the cost lever is landing, and watch the share-growth gap as the tell that it does not matter.
54
AI Position
Mildly favorable - low exposure, with entrant fragmentation the real AI channel
Cheap intelligence cannot manufacture cultural desirability or a global footwear supply chain, so AI mostly reaches Nike as a demand-planning and content-cost lever — but it also cuts the cost of launching and marketing a rival brand, which is precisely where Nike is already bleeding share.
Exposure 37 Confidence 63 50 = neutral
Primary Tailwind

Nike's largest controllable profit leak is markdowns and mis-allocated inventory; AI-driven demand sensing, size/colorway allocation and marketplace pricing attack gross margin directly, and generative content collapses the cost of the ~$4B/yr demand-creation machine without lowering what a consumer will pay for the shoe.

Primary Pressure

AI compresses the cost of design iteration, 3D sampling, content production and performance marketing, which lowers the capital and headcount needed to scale a credible challenger brand — arming the On/Hoka/New Balance cohort and the next cohort behind it against a company already growing 0.2% into a 4.8% industry.

Critical Hinge

Whether AI-era cost collapse in brand-building fragments footwear share faster than Nike's scale, athlete roster and cultural authority defend it — observable in the share-growth gap and in gross margin/markdown rate, not in any AI announcement.

Hard to Reproduce

Cultural meaning of the swoosh, multi-decade athlete and league contracts, sport-specific biomechanics IP and tooling, and a contract-manufacturing plus wholesale/DTC distribution network at billion-unit scale — none of which is a software problem.

Forensic fingerprint same 11 factors for every stock · 0 unfavorable · 50 neutral · 100 favorable
Underlying Need Persistence do people still need this at all? 95
People will keep buying athletic footwear and apparel regardless of intelligence costs.
The need — physical performance and identity-signalling apparel — is biological and cultural, not informational; AI does not reduce the number of feet or the desire to signal taste.
global footwear unit demand trend · sport participation rates · apparel share of wallet vs experiences
relevance 58 · confidence 92
Solution Persistence will they still solve it this way? 76
Branded premium footwear survives, but which brand wins is a taste question AI does not settle.
The solution form (a designed, branded shoe sold at premium) is intact; the risk is that Nike's specific version of it loses relevance as performance credibility spreads across more brands.
full-price sell-through rate · Nike share of running/basketball · average selling price trend
relevance 56 · confidence 72
Intelligence Commoditization does cheap AI power them or copy them? 44
Cheap AI helps Nike operate but helps rivals build brands faster.
Nike gains real internal leverage in planning and creative, yet the same tools are more transformative for a sub-scale challenger with no legacy process debt; relative benefit tilts to entrants.
new brand launch cadence in footwear · challenger brand marketing efficiency · Nike SG&A per revenue dollar
relevance 62 · confidence 60
Responsibility Transfer are they paid to take the blame? 31
Nike is not paid to absorb liability or compliance risk on a customer's behalf.
Unlike a compliance vendor, Nike's pricing power rests on desirability, not on shielding a buyer from regulatory or legal consequence, so this shield is largely absent.
product liability/recall incidence · supply-chain labor compliance costs
relevance 14 · confidence 78
Scarcity Migration do their assets get rarer or more common? 63
As design and content become abundant, cultural authority and physical scale become the scarce goods Nike still owns.
AI commoditizes the informational inputs (sketching, sampling, copy, media buying) while athlete access, retail shelf, and manufacturing capacity at scale stay scarce — favorable, but only if Nike's cultural heat holds.
athlete/league contract renewals · retail shelf allocation vs rivals · brand consideration among under-25s
relevance 74 · confidence 62
Customer DIY Preference will customers just build it themselves? 90
Consumers will not internalize footwear design or manufacture.
n/a
3D-print/on-demand footwear adoption · custom/By-You mix
relevance 18 · confidence 88
AI Intermediation Position do AI agents go through them or around them? 43
Agentic shopping and LLM discovery could route around Nike's owned channels toward attribute/price comparison.
Nike's ~hundreds-of-millions member base and app ecosystem give partial direct access, but a growing wholesale mix means third-party marketplaces and AI answer layers increasingly control the first impression.
DTC vs wholesale revenue mix · app/member engagement and repeat rate · traffic share from AI assistants
relevance 54 · confidence 52
Data Leverage does their data make AI better? 56
Deep SKU, size and activity data improves operations but does not compound into a defensible AI product.
Nike Run/Training Club and membership data sharpen allocation and personalization, yet the data does not make the shoe better in a way a consumer pays extra for, so it is a cost asset not a moat asset.
forecast accuracy/markdown disclosures · membership data-driven full-price mix · personalization impact on repeat purchase
relevance 44 · confidence 55
AI Margin Conversion do the AI savings become profit? 58
Savings can stick because Nike's price is set by desirability, not by cost.
With operating margin at 8.2% versus 14.3% in 2022, planning and creative efficiency has unusual dollar leverage; the risk is that a promotional category competes the gains away before they reach the operating line.
gross margin recovery toward 46% · demand creation spend per revenue · inventory days and markdown rate
relevance 70 · confidence 58
Revenue Unit Durability does the thing they charge for survive? 71
The monetized unit — a pair of shoes at a premium price — physically survives; the premium is the fragile part.
No AI substitute exists for the unit itself, but price-point durability depends on scarcity of heat, and a wider field of credible AI-assisted brands pressures the premium rather than the volume.
ASP and full-price mix · premium tier sell-through · promotional intensity across wholesale
relevance 64 · confidence 68
Entrant Compression how easily can newcomers copy them? 31
AI meaningfully lowers the cost of designing, sampling and marketing a rival brand.
Digital sampling, generative creative and AI-optimized paid acquisition cut the capital needed to reach credible scale, compounding a fragmentation trend already visible in Nike's 0.2% growth against a 4.8% industry.
number of $1B+ challenger brands · time-from-concept-to-shelf across industry · Nike category share in running
relevance 76 · confidence 62

AI Lens thesis

Nike sells a physical, taste-mediated object, so AI cannot substitute the product or the transaction; it reaches the P&L through three narrow channels. First, cost: demand forecasting, allocation, and generative creative attack the two biggest discretionary line items — markdown-driven COGS and demand creation — against a depressed 8.2% operating margin where 200-300bps of recovery is the entire bull case. Second, discovery: if agentic shopping and LLM answers become the front door, attribute-and-price optimization pressures the brand premium at the margin, though fit, fashion and identity make footwear one of the least agent-tractable categories. Third, and most important, entry: cheap design, sampling and marketing intelligence lowers the fixed cost of brand creation, accelerating a fragmentation trend Nike is already losing to. Net: low exposure, mildly positive on costs, structurally negative on competitive density, with the decisive variable being brand heat, which AI neither builds nor breaks.

Thesis breaker If gross margin recovers toward 46%+ with markdown rates falling while the share-growth gap closes, the cost-lever read dominates and position should be higher; if margin holds near 43% while a widening cohort of AI-lean challenger brands takes another 300-500bps of category growth, the entrant-compression read dominates.
What the market may be underestimating

Upside Nike's inventory problem is an information problem at enormous dollar scale — a few points of forecast accuracy across ~$46B of revenue and a billion units is worth more in absolute profit than most software companies' entire AI opportunity, and it accrues to Nike alone because no competitor has comparable SKU-level history.

Downside Nike's demand-creation spend has been a moat because it was expensive; if AI makes high-quality athlete-adjacent content near-free, the barrier Nike paid decades to build erodes for everyone, and its absolute marketing scale converts from advantage to fixed-cost burden.

Outcome range spread 35

33Bear case
53Central case
68Bull case
Three headline numbers, deliberately never blended: Position (which way), Exposure (how much it matters at all), Confidence (how sure). The fingerprint asks every stock the same 11 questions so companies a sector label would lump together get told apart. Not an input to GEM/Coal or the Q/V/S lenses.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-12 00:41:18
Verdict I dissent from the synthesis's "overvalued at $28" call — that number relies on extrapolating trough CAGRs and ignores the Q4 margin snapback. But I don't get to "undervalued" either, because a single quarter isn't a trend and the competitive threats are structural. Fair value in a normalization scenario (revenue flat-to-+2%, margins recovering to 9-10%) is $45-52; in a bear case (margins stuck at 7%, revenue declines resume) it's $30-35. At $41, the stock is roughly fairly valued with asymmetric optionality — you're paid 4% to wait, the balance sheet is fortress-grade, and one more quarter of margin recovery would force a re-rating. The synthesis is being too mechanical; the narrative layer is closer to right but its "story premium" math is inflated by the same DCF flaw. This is a "wait for the next print, then size up if margins hold" setup, not an overvalued short.

Independent read first: Nike's trajectory is uglier than the headline P/E suggests but better than the DCF verdict implies. FY26 revenue of $46.4B is essentially flat vs FY25's $46.31B but down 9.7% from FY24's $51.36B, and operating income collapsed from $6.31B (FY24) to $3.80B (FY26) — that's operating margin compression from 12.3% to 8.2%. Yet the quarterly cadence shows a real inflection: Q4 FY26 (May 2026) printed 9.7% net margin and $1.07B NI, vs 1.9% and $211M in the year-ago quarter. That's a 5x earnings jump on flat revenue, which is exactly what an inventory-cleanup-then-margin-recovery story looks like. FCF at $2.18B on $62.5B market cap is a 3.5% yield, supplemented by a 4% dividend — the balance sheet ($7.56B cash vs $7.94B debt, near-net-zero leverage) can carry the dividend indefinitely even at trough earnings.

Where I disagree with the synthesis: the $28.07 signal-adjusted fair value is mechanically extrapolating the -5% revenue CAGR and -26% earnings CAGR forward, which double-counts the trough. If FY26 Q4's 9.7% margin annualizes even partially — say Nike does $47B at 10% net margin — that's $4.7B NI, or ~$3.15 EPS, putting the stock at ~13x normalized. That's not overvalued for a brand with 43% gross margins, 20% ROE, and 20% ROIC (those returns-on-capital numbers, by the way, are inconsistent with the "permanently impaired" thesis the pre-flight flagged — impaired brands don't earn 20% ROIC). The synthesis and momentum layer are anchored to the wrong reference frame: trailing 3-year CAGRs on a company mid-reset are noise, not signal. The narrative layer's "fallen angel / anchored" framing is closer to right, but its 47% story premium calculation inherits the same flawed DCF anchor.

The contrarian case against my pushback: Q4 FY26 margin recovery could be one-time — clearance-driven gross margin relief, favorable comps, or FX. Revenue is still not growing (0.2% YoY most recent), and the structural bear case (On, HOKA, Gen Z taste shift toward lifestyle/luxury, China weakness) is real and not cyclical. Adidas trades around 1.5x sales; Nike at 1.3x is not obviously cheap versus a peer that's executing better on the turnaround. If normalized margin is actually 7-8% not 10%, EPS is $2.20-$2.50 and fair value is $35-40, right where the stock sits. The dividend yield of 4% also signals the market doesn't believe in the growth reacceleration — that's a value-trap yield, not a bargain yield, if operating income doesn't recover. Data gaps: no segment breakdown (China vs NA vs EMEA), no gross margin trajectory by quarter, no inventory metric — all three matter enormously for judging whether Q4 was a real inflection or a clearance blip.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-12 00:41:33
Verdict Slightly overvalued at $41 — Nike is financially solid, but the stock still prices in a margin recovery not yet visible; fair value is closer to $34-$37.

Nike at roughly $41 is not obviously cheap just because the chart is broken. The core fact pattern is that revenue has gone nowhere for two years while profit has been cut almost in half from the 2024 peak. FY2026 revenue was $46.40B versus $46.31B in FY2025, but both sit well below FY2024’s $51.36B. Gross profit is down from $22.89B in 2024 to $19.91B in 2026, and operating income has fallen from $6.31B to $3.80B. That is not a temporary optical issue from one bad quarter; it is a sustained erosion in both volume and margin. Net income of $3.11B implies a 6.7% margin, versus 11.1% in 2024 and 13.0% in 2022. When a brand business loses 430 bps of net margin in two years without growing the top line, you should assume the moat is under pressure until proven otherwise.

What stands out to me is that the current multiple already assumes a meaningful earnings recovery while the raw earnings cadence is still weak. The trailing quarterly run-rate shows some stabilization in revenue, but not enough to justify much optimism: the last four quarters sum to about $46.4B, and quarterly sales ranged from $10.97B to $12.43B, basically flat to slightly down from prior-year levels. Meanwhile profitability remains inconsistent: quarterly net margins over the last five quarters were 1.9%, 6.2%, 6.4%, 4.6%, and 9.7%. That latest 9.7% quarter is better, but still only back to the 2024 range, and it came on lower revenue. Against that, the stock trades at 19.5x earnings, 13.4x EV/EBITDA, and 1.3x sales. For a dominant global brand, those are not outrageous multiples; for a business with a -5% revenue CAGR, -26% earnings CAGR, and -43% FCF CAGR, they are not a bargain either. On $2.18B of free cash flow, the equity is at roughly a 3.5% FCF yield, which is thin for a company still trying to prove its reset is real.

The balance sheet is fine and prevents this from being a disaster story. Debt of $7.94B is nearly offset by $7.56B of cash, the current ratio is 1.96, and the dividend yield near 4% gives investors some paid patience. But that strength mainly limits downside from financial distress; it does not create upside by itself. The interesting contradiction in the models is that some framing treats Nike like a classic fallen angel that should be bought on trough earnings. I think that overstates how “trough” these earnings are. FY2026 operating income of $3.80B was actually slightly above FY2025’s $3.70B, so the business may already be showing its new normal rather than a one-off air pocket. If normalized earnings power is closer to $3-4B net income than the $5.7-6.0B delivered in 2022-2024, then 19.5x is full, not cheap. My base case is that fair value sits in the mid-$30s, where the market would be paying for brand durability without prepaying for a full margin snapback.

The best counterargument is straightforward: Nike still produces nearly $20B of gross profit on $46B of sales, earned $1.07B in the most recent quarter, and continues to generate positive free cash flow despite a difficult reset. A bull can also point out that gross margin remains a healthy 42.9%, ROIC near 19.9% and ROE above 20% are still elite for a challenged consumer company, and the near-flat revenue in FY2026 after a big drop in FY2025 could mark the bottom. If sales even recover to $49-50B and net margin returns to 9-10%, earnings power quickly moves back toward $4.5-5.0B, making today’s valuation look undemanding. I weigh that less heavily because there is no evidence of that recovery yet in the annual numbers, and competition-driven brand slippage rarely announces itself cleanly before becoming persistent in the P&L.

What would change my mind is specific proof that Nike can rebuild profits without relying on hope. I would turn more constructive if the next few quarters show revenue growing at least 3-5% year over year while operating margin climbs back above 10%, which would imply annual operating income moving toward $4.8-5.0B. Sustained free cash flow above $3.5B would also matter, because that would push the FCF yield into a range that actually compensates for execution risk. On the other hand, if revenue remains stuck around $46B and net income stays near $3.0B, the stock should not hold a market cap above $60B for long.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-12 00:42:12
Verdict Fairly valued near $41 on trough earnings; partial margin recovery already visible, $28 DCF too punitive given 20% ROIC and 4% yield

The numbers describe a brand that lost altitude fast and has stopped falling, not one still in freefall. Annual revenue collapsed from the $51.3B peak in FY2024 to $46.3B in FY2025 and then stabilized at $46.4B in FY2026—effectively zero growth (+0.2% YoY) after a roughly 10% structural step-down. Net income was cut nearly in half from the $5.7B FY2024 level to $3.11B, and free cash flow of $2.18B (from $2.87B operating cash flow after only $684M of capex) now yields just 3.5% on the $62.5B equity value. That is the damage. What the quarterly tape shows, however, is that the earnings trough may already be behind: the May 2026 quarter delivered $1.07B of net income on $10.97B of revenue for a 9.7% net margin, the best print in eight quarters and a sharp rebound from the 4.6% and 1.9% lows of the prior year. Gross margin has held at 42.9%, ROIC remains a robust 19.9%, and the balance sheet is fortress-like—$7.56B cash against $7.94B debt, current ratio 1.96, net leverage essentially zero. At 19.5x trailing earnings, 13.4x EV/EBITDA, 1.31x sales, and a 4.0% dividend yield, the market is no longer paying a growth multiple; it is paying a mature-consumer multiple on depressed earnings for a company still generating high-teens returns on capital.

The story the data tell is inventory and channel reset, not brand death. Operating margin compressed from the mid-teens historically to 8.2% because Nike overbuilt wholesale, lost pricing power temporarily, and spent through the DTC transition while specialized competitors (On, HOKA) took share in performance running. Revenue CAGR of –5% and earnings CAGR of –26% over the measured window capture that reset; they do not prove permanence. The latest quarter’s margin re-expansion to nearly 10% net is hard evidence that mix, promotions, and cost actions are beginning to bite. With the stock already cut in half from the prior $80 region to $41, the “permanently impaired” narrative is largely in the price. A 4% cash yield backed by an investment-grade balance sheet and $2.2B of FCF gives downside support that pure DCF models ignoring brand durability and capital-return capacity tend to underweight.

The strongest case against this read is the valuation synthesis itself: a composite fair value near $29 and the explicit claim that $41 embeds a 47% narrative premium the cash flows do not support. Skeptics will correctly note that FCF has cratered (–43% CAGR), revenue confidence is flagged low and decelerating, and Nike has not yet demonstrated it can re-accelerate top-line growth against fresher lifestyle and performance brands. If the May quarter’s 9.7% margin proves a one-quarter inventory-release artifact rather than the start of a multi-year climb back toward 11–12% net margins, then 19.5x earnings and 13x EBITDA on a no-growth $46B revenue base is too expensive, and mean-reversion toward slower-growth apparel peers (low-teens P/E, sub-10x EBITDA) would imply material further downside. The –5% revenue CAGR and sector headwinds are real; hoping for mid-single-digit growth and margin recovery is still a hope until two or three more clean quarters confirm it.

I would flip to decisively bearish if the next two quarters show net margins falling back below 6% and revenue declining more than 3% YoY, or if FCF drops under $1.5B while the dividend is held—evidence the reset is structural, not cyclical. I would flip more bullish if FY2027 revenue clears $48B with operating margin back above 11% and FCF above $3B, confirming the brand can re-earn a premium multiple.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 4.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
GPT gpt-5.4 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -2.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
Grok grok-4.5 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +1.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), plus AI Impact (how the AI wave reshapes it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-12 00:51:43
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality name, wrong price - wait for a dip 7/10
Nike is a still-solid franchise trading ~25-30% above a tight fair-value cluster in the high-$20s to low-$30s, so I wait for a real dip before committing.
The cruxWhether operating margin actually recovers from 8.2% back toward 12%+ - the entire bull case is embedded in that single line, and it has not yet printed.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from NKE's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
-3
Solid
edge √Σ 100 · risk √Σ 103 · conf 7/10

The business is clearly in a soft patch. Revenue peaked at $51.36B in FY2024 and has since retraced to $46.40B in FY2026 - essentially flat with FY2022's $46.71B, meaning four years of zero top-line growth. More concerning is the margin compression: operating margin fell from 14.3% in FY2022 to 8.2% in FY2026, and net income roughly halved from $6.05B to $3.11B. Gross margin also slipped from 46% to 42.9%. This is not a company falling apart - it is a franchise going through a genuine profitability reset. Earnings quality remains clean: OCF/NI at 1.08x, accruals at -1% of assets, Beneish M of -2.19, and Altman Z of 3.5 all confirm the reported numbers are real, not manufactured. Capital allocation is disciplined - diluted share count has shrunk from 1.61B to 1.48B (a -2.1% CAGR), and buybacks run 4.66x SBC, so per-share value is being concentrated even as absolute earnings fall. Liquidity is adequate: $7.56B cash against a small net debt position of $379M, and FCF of $2.18B in FY2026 still comfortably self-funds the business, though FCF has also compressed sharply from $6.62B in FY2024. Balance sheet is a constraint, not a cushion, but survival is not remotely in question.

Strengths 3
m70
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.08x, accruals -1% of assets, Beneish M -2.19, Altman Z 3.5. Reported earnings convert to cash and mechanical fraud screens are quiet.
m55
Disciplined per-share value protection
Diluted shares down from 1.61B to 1.48B (-2.1% CAGR), buyback-to-SBC ratio of 466%. Management is a net buyer of its own equity.
m45
Persistent FCF generation through the downturn
Even in the trough year FY2026, FCF was $2.18B on $46.4B of revenue - the business self-funds despite the earnings reset.
Concerns 4
m70
Operating margin has nearly halved
OpM fell from 14.3% in FY2022 to 8.2% in FY2026; net income dropped from $6.05B to $3.11B. This is a real profitability deterioration, not a one-off.
m55
Four years of no revenue growth
Revenue: $46.71B (2022) to $46.40B (2026). Top line has round-tripped, suggesting brand momentum and/or channel strategy is impaired.
m45
FCF collapse from peak
FCF has fallen from $6.62B (FY2024) to $2.18B (FY2026), a two-thirds decline in two years, tightening the funding cushion for buybacks and dividends.
m25
Gross margin erosion
GM% slid from 46% to 42.9%, hinting at pricing pressure, promotional intensity, or input/mix headwinds that the brand has not fully offset.
This is a still-strong franchise going through a genuine operational reset, not a broken company. The earnings quality checks are clean, buybacks are disciplined, and the business remains cash-generative. But I cannot ignore that revenue has been flat for four years and operating margin has nearly halved - that is a real quality signal, not noise. The moat (brand, scale, distribution) is likely still intact, but management execution and category momentum are visibly weaker than they were in FY2022. I land on 'Solid' with clear caveats: the state is sound but the trajectory is negative, and I would want to see stabilization before upgrading my read of the business.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Segment-level detail on where the margin compression is concentrated (DTC vs wholesale, geography, category)
  • Inventory levels and days-on-hand vs prior years to assess whether markdowns are the margin driver
  • Debt maturity schedule given the net debt position and reduced FCF
  • China revenue and margin trajectory specifically
  • Any restructuring charges or one-timers depressing FY2025/2026 operating margin
  • Commentary on Jordan/running/lifestyle product cycle health
Valuation / Mispricing
-61
Rich
edge √Σ 22 · risk √Σ 92 · conf 7/10
Price $41.32 vs deserved ~$30-32 - roughly 25-30% above fair, no margin of safety. attractive below $32.00

The three valuation methods cluster tightly and tell the same story: DCF at $29.32, EPV floor at $27.87, anchored P/E at $31.57, composite $29.52, signal-adjusted $28.07. Against a $41.32 price, that is roughly a 30-40% overpayment. The methods agreeing this closely is meaningful - this is not one runaway model dragging the average; the deserved-value range is genuinely in the high-$20s to low-$30s given flat revenue for four years and operating margins nearly halved.

Cheap signals 1
m22
Quality supports upper end of FV range
Solid quality grade and clean earnings quality justify anchoring near the $31.57 anchored-PE rather than the $27.87 EPV floor - but even that leaves ~24% downside to fair.
Rich / priced-in 3
m68
Price ~30% above tight FV cluster
DCF $29.32, EPV $27.87, anchored-PE $31.57 all land within a narrow band; $41.32 sits well above the top of the range. Method agreement raises confidence in the overvaluation call.
m55
Priced for margin recovery not yet earned
Revenue flat 4 years and operating margin nearly halved, yet the multiple embeds a return to prior profitability. The turnaround is a hope, not a print.
m30
Fallen-angel premium still intact
Despite the reset narrative, market is still paying a mature-compounder multiple for a business currently exhibiting neither growth nor peak margins.
I like the business, I do not like the price. Three independent methods say fair value is high-$20s to low-$30s and the stock is $41 - that is a ~25-30% overpay for a story (margin recovery) that has not shown up in the financials yet. I want a real margin of safety before touching a name in the middle of an operational reset; sub-$32 gets me interested, closer to $28 and I am buying. At $41 the market is doing my work for the turnaround team.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • North America and Greater China revenue trajectory in next print
  • Gross margin recovery cadence vs guidance
  • Inventory days normalization
  • DTC mix and full-price sell-through
  • Buyback pace vs FCF
General Sentiment
-49
Headwind
tail √Σ 52 · head √Σ 107 · conf 7/10

The macro tape is mildly risk-on (regime score +47, VIX 15.3), which would normally help a beta-1.12 consumer cyclical. But that tailwind is being neutralized by a stock-specific story problem: NKE is deep in a fallen-angel narrative with strong intensity and moderate durability, and the entire footwear cohort (LULU, DECK, ONON) is being written up as 'plunged' and 'struggling.' Headlines like 'Down 76% From Its High' and 'Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market' are the tell - the news flow is framing NKE as a broken compounder, not a risk-on beneficiary. Analyst tone via the story frame is split: bulls lean on brand moat and DTC margin recovery, bears cite Gen Z taste shift and lost pricing power. That divergence, plus the -5% CAGR and -4.4pp deceleration, keeps sentiment leaning negative. The one flicker of tailwind is a mild momentum inflection (recent 0.2% vs -5% long-term) and inclusion in 'comeback candidate' framing - the setup for a narrative flip exists, but hasn't triggered. Net: the tape helps a little, the story hurts more, and this specific name has no active positive catalyst to ride the risk-on regime.

Tailwinds 3
m35
Risk-on tape, mildly supportive
Regime score +47 with VIX at 15.3 gives a beta-1.12 consumer cyclical a modest tailwind on paper - but with no active positive catalyst here, the benefit is muted.
m30
Faint momentum inflection
Recent 0.2% vs -5% long-term hints the worst of the selling may be behind. Combined with 'comeback' framing, this sets up a possible narrative flip - but it hasn't triggered yet.
m25
Operational self-help storyline
News on international logistics improvements and DTC margin recovery gives bulls a coherent thesis to point at, softening the bear narrative at the margin.
Headwinds 4
m65
Fallen-angel narrative, strong intensity
Archetype is explicitly fallen-angel with strong intensity - the market is actively telling a story of a broken franchise (Gen Z taste shift, lost pricing power). That frames every data point negatively and keeps multiple compression pressure on.
m55
Footwear cohort out of favor
News flow groups NKE with LULU, DECK, ONON as 'all plunged' and 'struggling sector.' Sector-level sentiment rotation away from athletic/performance amplifies the pressure on NKE specifically as the cohort bellwether.
m50
'Down 76% from high' framing dominates
Recent headlines anchor on the drawdown and 'possible comeback' language - classic value-trap framing that discourages momentum and growth buyers and keeps the marginal bid weak.
m40
Dividend cut chatter
NKE appearing in a 'dividend stocks that will cut payouts' prediction piece is a sentiment negative for the income holder base, risking a marginal-seller overhang.
Net pressure leans headwind. The macro tape is actually helpful for a beta-1.12 cyclical, but this specific name is trapped in a fallen-angel narrative with a whole cohort being written off - and there is no active positive catalyst pulling capital in. The story is doing more damage than the tape is doing good. I read this as a persistent, ordinary-to-real negative press, not a decisive collapse - the narrative is moderate-durability and the momentum has quietly stopped bleeding, so a flip is possible but not imminent. Until either a beat or a sector rotation hits, sentiment keeps the marginal bid weak.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Next earnings print - does inventory normalization and DTC margin show up in the numbers, which could flip the fallen-angel arc
  • Any high-profile analyst upgrade or target revision that breaks the negative consensus drift
  • Sector rotation signal - if LULU/DECK/ONON catch a bid, NKE likely follows
  • China/international commentary - a positive surprise there could reset the growth narrative
  • Any Gen Z brand-heat data (search trends, resale premiums) that would rebut the taste-shift bear thesis
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
AI Impact
+18
Mildly favorable - low exposure, with entrant fragmentation the real AI channel
opp √Σ 70 · thr √Σ 29 · conf 6/10

Nike sells a physical, taste-mediated object, so AI cannot substitute the product or the transaction; it reaches the P&L through three narrow channels. First, cost: demand forecasting, allocation, and generative creative attack the two biggest discretionary line items — markdown-driven COGS and demand creation — against a depressed 8.2% operating margin where 200-300bps of recovery is the entire bull case. Second, discovery: if agentic shopping and LLM answers become the front door, attribute-and-price optimization pressures the brand premium at the margin, though fit, fashion and identity make footwear one of the least agent-tractable categories. Third, and most important, entry: cheap design, sampling and marketing intelligence lowers the fixed cost of brand creation, accelerating a fragmentation trend Nike is already losing to. Net: low exposure, mildly positive on costs, structurally negative on competitive density, with the decisive variable being brand heat, which AI neither builds nor breaks.

AI opportunities 5
m52
Underlying Need Persistence
People will keep buying athletic footwear and apparel regardless of intelligence costs.
m29
Solution Persistence
Branded premium footwear survives, but which brand wins is a taste question AI does not settle.
m19
Scarcity Migration
As design and content become abundant, cultural authority and physical scale become the scarce goods Nike still owns.
m14
Customer DIY Preference
Consumers will not internalize footwear design or manufacture.
m27
Revenue Unit Durability
The monetized unit — a pair of shoes at a premium price — physically survives; the premium is the fragile part.
AI threats 2
m5
Responsibility Transfer
Nike is not paid to absorb liability or compliance risk on a customer's behalf.
m29
Entrant Compression
AI meaningfully lowers the cost of designing, sampling and marketing a rival brand.
AI is not the reason to own or avoid Nike — it is a modest margin tool inside a brand-heat problem AI cannot fix, and a quiet accelerant of the competitive fragmentation already costing Nike share. Exposure 37 and position 54: the honest read is that AI touches the periphery — demand planning, allocation, generative creative — where the dollar leverage is real against an 8.2% operating margin, but it does nothing for the variable that actually decides the outcome, which is whether the swoosh is culturally wanted at full price. The bear-bull spread (33-68) is driven by entrant compression at 31: cheap intelligence lowers the fixed cost of building a rival brand, and Nike is already growing 0.2% into a 4.8% industry. Watch markdown rate and gross margin toward 46% as the tell that the cost lever is landing, and watch the share-growth gap as the tell that it does not matter.
Verify before trusting this (8)
  • number of $1B+ challenger brands
  • time-from-concept-to-shelf across industry
  • Nike category share in running
  • athlete/league contract renewals
  • retail shelf allocation vs rivals
  • brand consideration among under-25s
  • gross margin recovery toward 46%
  • demand creation spend per revenue
The structural effect of the AI wave on this specific business over the next ~5 years — demand, cost leverage, moat, barriers to entry, position in the AI stack. The reality beneath the AI story, not the story's market pressure (General Sentiment owns that) — and not a call on the business today or the price.
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), AI Impact (structural ~5yr AI exposure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -15.3% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 12, 2026, NKE was $41.32. We expect it to be $35.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $32.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 12, 2026.

Price when predicted$41.32
Our estimate for Feb 2027$35.00-15.3%
Great value below$32.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06