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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for nVent Electric plc (NVT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-10-07): Designation Low · Gem Score -27 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 34 · Value -68 · Sentiment 38 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $96.93 vs $148.17 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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nVent Electric plc
NVT NYSEnVent Electric plc is a global electrical equipment company that designs, manufactures, markets, installs, and services solutions for electrical connection and protection. Its portfolio includes electrical enclosures, power distribution components, cable management, fastening systems, grounding and bonding products, and cooling solutions used to protect electronics, systems, and critical infrastructure. nVent serves customers across industrial, commercial, residential, infrastructure, and energy markets, with particularly strong exposure to data centers, power utilities, renewable energy, telecommunications, and industrial automation. The company operates through its Systems Protection and Electrical Connections segments and sells products through distributors, contractors, OEMs, and other channel partners under brands including nVent CADDY, ERICO, HOFFMAN, ILSCO, SCHROFF, and TRACHTE. Headquartered in London, nVent focuses on helping customers connect, safeguard, and manage electrical and data systems across a wide range of applications.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.31
Total Equity: $3.73B
Shares: 164,600,000
Total Debt: $1.58B
Cash: $237.50M
EBITDA: $677.50M
Total Debt: $1.58B
Cash: $237.50M
Revenue: $3.89B
Revenue: $3.89B
Revenue: $3.89B
Total Equity: $3.73B
Tax Rate: 22.1%
Equity: $3.73B
Total Debt: $1.58B
Cash: $237.50M
Current Liabilities: $1.00B
Long-Term Debt: $1.56B
Total Debt: $1.58B
Total Equity: $3.73B
Shares: 164,600,000
Shares: 164,600,000
CapEx: -$93.30M
Shares: 164,600,000
Stock Price: $148.17
Net Income: $710.20M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 3, 2026 2:38am (34d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.3B | $3.0B | $3.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $1.5B | $1.8B | $1.9B | $1.8B | $2.4B |
| Gross Profit | $941.9M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.5B |
| Operating Expenses | $586.5M | $656.3M | $754.7M | $682.0M | $852.3M |
| Operating Income | $355.4M | $440.4M | $587.4M | $527.1M | $616.8M |
| Net Income | $272.9M | $399.8M | $567.1M | $331.8M | $710.2M |
| EBITDA | $396.3M | $483.9M | $639.1M | $578.4M | $677.5M |
| EPS | $1.63 | $2.40 | $3.42 | $2.00 | $4.36 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.61 | $2.38 | $3.37 | $1.97 | $4.31 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 3, 2026 2:30am (34d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $49.5M | $297.5M | $185.1M | $131.2M | $237.5M |
| Total Current Assets | $911.5M | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.6B |
| Total Assets | $4.7B | $4.9B | $6.2B | $6.7B | $6.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $636.3M | $649.5M | $733.6M | $801.6M | $1.0B |
| Long-Term Debt | $994.2M | $1.1B | $1.7B | $2.1B | $1.6B |
| Total Liabilities | $2.2B | $2.2B | $3.0B | $3.5B | $3.1B |
| Total Equity | $2.5B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.2B | $3.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $174.5M | $457.3M | $905.3M | $1.1B | $1.7B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Sep 3, 2026 2:50am (34d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $373.3M | $394.6M | $528.1M | $643.1M | $465.2M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$39.5M | -$45.9M | -$71.0M | -$74.0M | -$93.3M |
| Free Cash Flow | $333.8M | $348.7M | $457.1M | $569.1M | $371.9M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$235.1M | -$8.6M | -$1.1B | -$677.7M | -$975.7M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$18.7M | $190.0M | $698.9M | $373.5M | -$598.3M |
| Dividends Paid | -$117.7M | -$117.0M | -$116.8M | -$126.8M | -$130.4M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$111.5M | -$65.9M | -$60.8M | -$100.0M | -$253.1M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$73.0M | $248.0M | -$112.4M | $4.8M | $47.6M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Sep 3, 2026 2:38am (34d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +18.2% | +12.2% | -7.9% | +29.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +16.4% | +22.4% | -9.9% | +21.5% |
| Operating Income Growth | +23.9% | +33.4% | -10.3% | +17.0% |
| Net Income Growth | +46.5% | +41.8% | -41.5% | +114.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +22.1% | +32.1% | -9.5% | +17.1% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 31, 2026 9:42am (37d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.21 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | $0.21 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-23 | $0.21 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-17 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-18 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-25 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-17 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-18 | $0.19 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-19 | $0.19 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-25 | $0.19 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-18 | $0.19 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-19 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-07-20 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-27 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2023-01-19 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-20 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2022-07-21 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2022-04-21 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2022-01-20 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-21 | $0.18 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-10-06 02:03A +1σ run of quarters pays -25%; a −1σ run costs 80%. Ratio -0.3:1 (μ 32.0%, σ 24.6% , 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): 0.3 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($148.17) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +58% | 17.3% | $170.34 | +15% |
| Base — stabilizes | +38% | 15.0% | $92.11 | -38% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +19% | 12.8% | $46.85 | -68% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +35% | 11.5% | $65.48 | -56% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +50% | 13.5% | $111.76 | -25% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +7% | 11.0% | $29.01 | -80% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-09-03 03:19The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory here is more interesting than the models give credit for. Quarterly revenue has stepped from $782M (Q3'24) → $963M (Q2'25) → $1.24B (Q1'26) → $1.47B (Q2'26). That's an 88% run over seven quarters and a sequential Q2'26 jump of ~19% — not the profile of a "mature earner" digesting a cyclical peak. Net margins simultaneously expanded from ~11% to 14.7%. The Q1'25 net income spike of $360.7M is clearly a divestiture/one-time gain (net margin of 44.6% is impossible operationally), which artificially inflates the annual 2025 NI figure of $710M and thus deflates the trailing P/E as reported. Strip that out and normalized 2025 NI is closer to $470-500M, pushing real trailing P/E toward ~50x, not 34x. That's a much more damning starting point than the synthesis flagged.
I mostly agree with the synthesis verdict of overvalued but I think the $92 fair value is too punitive and the $110 signal-adjusted number is closer to right — possibly conservative. If Q2'26 annualizes to ~$5.5-5.9B revenue (up from $3.89B in 2025), the company has clearly executed an acquisition or significant capacity add, which the models are treating as organic momentum. That's the pre-flight's blind spot: revenue_cagr of 9.2% and recent YoY of 29.5% cannot both be organic in an electrical components business — something inorganic is happening (likely the Trachte or ECM acquisitions, or a similar bolt-on). This matters because acquired revenue at premium multiples is not the same quality as compounding organic growth, and the 37x EV/EBITDA and 6.5x EV/revenue reflect a market pricing this as if it were the latter. ROIC of 9.5% against 19% ROE also confirms leverage-and-M&A driven returns, not underlying capital efficiency.
The contrarian case: if the data center thermal management thesis is real and durable — and Vertiv (VRT) trading at similar multiples suggests the market has decided it is — then nVent could grow into this valuation over 2-3 years rather than derating. FCF of $372M on $23.98B market cap is a 1.55% FCF yield, which is thin but not catastrophic if FCF doubles alongside revenue. The bear counter: FCF CAGR is *negative 9.8%* while revenue CAGR is +9.2%. That's the tell. Cash conversion is deteriorating precisely as reported earnings are accelerating — classic sign of working capital build, acquisition integration costs, or aggressive revenue recognition. Combined with the insider selling cluster in early August 2026 (roughly 74k shares sold across five transactions in two days, right after Q2'26 print), the message from people who see the internals is clear: take chips off the table at these levels. The "Neutral Insider Activity" tag in secondary signals is wrong — this is meaningful selling into strength.
Committing: I dissent partially on the magnitude but agree on direction. Fair value is not $92; it's approximately $105-115 based on ~$5.6B run-rate revenue, normalized 13% net margins (~$730M NI), 22-25x on genuine data center exposure justified by peer group, giving ~$16-18B enterprise value or roughly $100-112/share equity. At $148, you're paying a 30-45% premium for a story that requires (a) organic-quality earnings from acquisition-heavy growth, (b) FCF to catch up with reported earnings, and (c) data center capex cycle to not roll over in 2027. The insider selling and negative FCF CAGR are the two facts that make this asymmetric to the downside. I'd wait for either a re-rating to ~$115 or two consecutive quarters of FCF growth matching reported earnings growth before committing capital.
GPT Reading
At $148, nVent is being valued less like a solid electrical equipment company and more like a scarce AI/electrification compounder, and the underlying numbers do not quite earn that treatment. The recent operating trajectory is undeniably strong: quarterly revenue has stepped from $782 million in 2024’s third quarter to $1.47 billion by 2026’s second quarter, and the last four reported quarters sum to roughly $4.83 billion of revenue and $598 million of net income. That implies a trailing net margin around 12.4% if you ignore the obvious one-time noise in March 2025, versus the annual 2025 net margin of 18.2% that was flattered by a $360.7 million quarter at a bizarre 44.6% margin. Strip out that distortion and what remains is a good business with improving scale, not a business that should obviously command 34.4x earnings, 6.3x sales, and 37.5x EBITDA. For an industrial name with 15.8% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC, those are venture-like multiples on mature-company economics.
The core positive is that growth is real, not fabricated. Annual revenue rose from $2.46 billion in 2021 to $3.89 billion in 2025, a solid four-year climb, and the quarterly run-rate suggests 2026 may land materially above that. Gross profit has also expanded from $941.9 million in 2021 to $1.47 billion in 2025, so this is not just a low-quality volume story. Balance sheet risk is moderate rather than alarming: $1.58 billion of debt against $3.73 billion of equity and a current ratio of 1.63 give management room to keep investing. But cash flow is where the valuation starts to wobble. 2025 operating cash flow was $465.2 million and free cash flow $371.9 million, which means the stock trades at roughly 64x trailing free cash flow on the stated $23.98 billion market cap. Even if 2026 free cash flow improves meaningfully, investors are already paying today for years of continued double-digit growth and sustained margin strength. That can work for software; for electrical enclosures, thermal management, and infrastructure components, it is a harder underwriting case.
What stands out most is the mismatch between quality and price. This is not a low-quality rollup or a balance-sheet accident; it is a credible operator benefiting from attractive end markets. But the market has collapsed the distinction between “exposed to data center and electrification capex” and “deserves a secular premium no matter the cycle.” The quarterly sequence after the anomalous March 2025 profit spike actually shows fairly normal industrial profitability: 11.1%, 11.5%, 11.5%, 11.4%, then 14.7% most recently. That latest quarter is excellent, but not enough to justify pretending cyclicality has vanished. Meanwhile, insider activity leans more toward monetization than accumulation, even if much of it is option-related. I would not make too much of insider selling alone, but it does matter when paired with a valuation this full. My read is that the stock is pricing the best part of the story as if it will persist uninterrupted.
The strongest case against my skepticism is that I may be anchoring too heavily on old industrial valuation frameworks while the business mix is getting structurally better. If the current quarterly revenue run-rate of $1.24 billion to $1.47 billion is sustainable, then annual sales power is no longer $3.9 billion but nearer $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion. On that base, the price-to-sales ratio compresses quickly, and if net margins settle in the 13%-15% range rather than the historical low teens, earnings power could climb toward $700 million-$800 million without heroic assumptions. In that scenario, today’s P/E would fall faster than the headline suggests, and investors would be right to pay a premium for cleaner secular exposure than a typical multi-industrial. There is also evidence of operating leverage: 2024 operating income was $527.1 million on $3.01 billion of sales, while 2025 operating income reached $616.8 million on $3.89 billion, so additional revenue is dropping through reasonably well. If management can translate AI/data-center demand into sustained mix improvement rather than just temporary backlog conversion, the market’s enthusiasm will look smarter than a static screen suggests.
What would change my mind is straightforward: I need to see the current scale convert cleanly into cash and normalized earnings. If the next few quarters keep revenue above $1.3 billion while net margins hold above 13% and annualized free cash flow moves beyond $600 million, then the current price begins to look defendable and a $150-plus stock could be fair. I would also turn more constructive if debt stays controlled while ROIC pushes decisively above 12%, because that would indicate this is becoming a genuinely better business, not just a temporarily hot one. Absent that, any evidence of order normalization, margins slipping back toward 11%-12%, or free cash flow lagging reported earnings would expose how much optimism is embedded in a 6.5x EV/revenue multiple.
Grok Reading
The numbers show a real step-change in the top line, not a narrative hallucination. nVent went from sub-$800M quarters through most of 2024 to $1.24B and then $1.47B in the first two prints of 2026, with operating margins climbing into the mid-teens (14.7% net in the latest quarter versus the 11% band that dominated 2025). Annual revenue jumped from $3.01B in 2024 to $3.89B in 2025—roughly 29%—and the trailing run-rate now implies something closer to a mid-$5B business if the last two quarters hold. That is the data-center/electrification story showing up in reported dollars. Net income of $710M in 2025 and a 19% ROE look respectable on the surface. Balance sheet leverage is manageable at 0.42 debt-to-equity and $1.58B of debt against $3.73B of equity, and free cash flow of $372M on $465M of operating cash is not broken.
What the multiple is asking you to ignore is the quality and durability underneath that acceleration. Trailing P/E of 34×, EV/EBITDA of 37.5×, and EV/sales of 6.5× are growth-tech valuations on an electrical-equipment manufacturer whose five-year revenue CAGR is only 9.2% and whose FCF CAGR is *negative* 9.8%. Cash is a thin $238M against that debt stack. The 2025 net margin of 18% is inflated by the Q1 2025 $361M net-income print (44.6% margin)—almost certainly a one-time item—because operating income was only $617M while reported NI hit $710M. Strip the noise and you are paying mid-30s earnings multiples for mid-teens operating margins and sub-10% ROIC. Insider activity in August 2026 was dominated by open-market sales (tens of thousands of shares across multiple tickets), mostly paired with option exercises; that is not a buy signal. Revenue confidence is already flagged as low and the quarterly trend as decelerating—exactly the setup where a 34× industrial multiple compresses.
The strongest counter-argument is the sequential revenue ramp itself: six quarters of almost uninterrupted climb from $752M to $1.47B is hard to dismiss as pure cycle noise, and if data-center thermal and enclosure demand keeps the company on a $5B+ trajectory with 15% margins, forward earnings power is higher than the trailing $710M implies and the “overvalued” label becomes less obvious. A smart bull also notes that gross margins held near 38%, the payout ratio is only 18%, and the business still throws off solid absolute FCF. I weigh that less heavily because FCF is not growing with revenue, ROIC remains mediocre at 9.5%, and industrial peers rarely sustain 34× once growth normalizes—even when the TAM story is real. The valuation synthesis fair-value band around $93–$111 already embeds a generous growth premium; $148 still sits 25–35% above that range.
I would flip constructive on two concrete developments: (1) two more quarters of revenue at or above the $1.4B level *with* FCF conversion that pushes trailing-twelve-month free cash flow above $500M and stabilizes the FCF CAGR, and (2) clear evidence that net margins can hold mid-teens without one-time gains while ROIC moves sustainably above 12%. Absent that, the stock is priced for a perfection that the cash-flow history does not yet support.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
nVent is a mature industrial earner running at roughly $3.89B revenue (2025) with 37.7% gross margin and 15.8% operating margin. Cash conversion is strong: OCF/NI of 1.18x, accruals at -0.5% of assets, Altman Z of 5.93, and $371.9M FCF against $710.2M net income (2025 net income likely boosted by non-cash items or divestiture gain given the revenue jump from $3.01B to $3.89B while margins compressed). Over five years revenue has grown from $2.46B to $3.89B while diluted shares fell from 169.7M to 164.6M (-0.8% CAGR), and buybacks run 4.55x SBC — per-share value is genuinely being concentrated, not eroded. SBC is a modest 1% of revenue. The soft spot is the balance sheet: net debt of roughly $1.34B against only $237.5M of liquid cash and cash/mktcap of 1%. That is manageable given $371.9M annual FCF (debt/FCF ~3.6x) but it is a constraint, not a cushion, and it caps how 'fortress' this can be called. Margin trajectory is also non-monotonic: op margin ran 14.4 to 15.1 to 18.0 to 17.5, then back to 15.8 in 2025, with gross margin giving back 240 bps from the 2023 peak — suggesting either mix shift, an acquisition drag, or pricing/cost pressure worth diligencing. Insider tape is routine sells around option exercises ($12.3M sold, zero buys); mixed but not alarming for a large-cap industrial.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Composition of 2025 net income — was there a divestiture gain, tax benefit, or pension remeasurement lifting the $710.2M figure above operating reality?
- Whether the 2025 revenue jump from $3.01B to $3.89B is organic or driven by acquisition (Trachte or similar) and the associated goodwill/leverage added
- Debt maturity schedule, fixed vs floating mix, and covenants given $1.34B net debt
- Customer/end-market concentration in Enclosures, Electrical & Fastening, and Thermal segments
- Reason for 240 bps gross margin compression from 2023 peak — mix, input costs, or acquired lower-margin businesses
- Segment-level margin structure and any recent portfolio moves (Thermal spin/sale) that would explain the trajectory shifts
The composite fair value of $92.52 and signal-adjusted FV of $110.59 both sit well below the $148.17 price, implying roughly 25-35% downside to deserved value. The DCF anchor of $85.52 is the most credible business-fundamentals read; the anchored-PE of $184 leans on peer multiples that are themselves elevated on the same electrification narrative, so I weight it lightly. The EPV floor of $15 is a runaway low-end artifact of a no-growth capitalization and should be ignored as a signal beyond confirming there is little downside cushion from steady-state earnings alone. Quality is genuinely strong (score 34) and earnings quality is clean, which lifts the deserved multiple - but that is already why the composite lands near $110 rather than at the DCF's $85. Paying $148 for a $110 business means the buyer is underwriting continued double-digit growth from data center and grid capex with no margin compression, exactly what the bear case flags. With $1.34B net debt, any cyclical wobble or M&A stumble hits fast. This is a good company at a full price - the mispricing is on the rich side, not egregious, but real.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward organic growth guidance vs the double-digit rate implied by current price
- Segment mix shift toward data center / electrification and its margin durability
- Capex intensity trend and free cash flow conversion
- Any large M&A that would strain the $1.34B net debt position
- Backlog and book-to-bill on infrastructure end-markets
The macro backdrop is roughly neutral (VIX 15, S&P just 1.7% off highs) with a mild rates/valuation headwind. At beta 1.36 NVT is more tape-sensitive than a defensive, but the tape is not actually risk-off, so the macro drag on this specific name is modest. What matters more here is the narrative: nVent sits squarely in the AI/data-center power and electrification story - the exact cohort the market is paying up for right now. Vertiv nearly doubling on data-center powertrain demand is a direct read-through that lifts adjacent names like NVT. Recent commentary (Zacks 'Buy despite premium', Navellier dip-buy list) is constructive and the stock is riding a 29.5% recent run vs 9.2% long-term CAGR - momentum and tone are aligned to the upside. The pushback is that the story is already priced (34% DCF premium per the brief), so this is a tailwind that could invert quickly on any crack in the AI-capex narrative or a sharper risk-off shift, but as of today the pressure is clearly to the upside.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Hyperscaler capex guidance revisions - the linchpin of the data-center narrative
- Peer prints (Vertiv, Eaton, nVent orders/backlog) for any crack in the electrification story
- Whether the S&P drawdown deepens past 3-5% and VIX pushes above 18 - would amplify beta pressure
- Analyst target revisions post next print - do estimates keep rising or start to plateau
The world's electricity demand curve has bent upward for the first time in two decades — AI compute, electrified transport and industrial reshoring all land on the same constrained grid. That routes capital into exactly nVent's SKU set: enclosures, busway, thermal, grounding, cable management. These are picks-and-shovels with content-per-megawatt that rises as rack density rises, so nVent participates even if it never picks the winning chip or cooling vendor. The counterweight is financing cost: at a ~4.79% 10y, the non-data-center half of the demand base (commercial construction, general industrial) stays subdued, and any hyperscaler capex pause would expose how concentrated the incremental growth has become. Net: a genuine multi-year structural tailwind, running at a pace that cannot be linearly extended.
When we made this prediction on Sep 3, 2026, NVT was $152.79. We expect it to be $138.50 by Mar 2027, and we consider it great value under $110.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Sep 3, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence NOTES
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
trailing_eps
flips down 25%
adjusted_pe
flips down 25%