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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -16 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 47 · Value -67 · Sentiment -67 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $130.25 vs $234.71 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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NXP Semiconductors N.V.
NXPI NASDAQNXP Semiconductors N.V. is a global semiconductor company that designs and supplies high-performance, mixed-signal and embedded processing solutions. Headquartered in Eindhoven, Netherlands, the company focuses on products that enable devices to sense, process, securely connect, and act across key end markets. NXP Semiconductors N.V. serves the automotive sector with microcontrollers, analog and radar solutions for advanced driver assistance, vehicle networking, and in-vehicle infotainment. It is also a major provider of semiconductors for industrial and Internet of Things applications, supporting factory automation, smart home, and secure edge computing. In mobile and communications infrastructure, NXP Semiconductors N.V. offers secure connectivity, NFC, and RF power solutions used in smartphones, payment systems, and cellular base stations. Through this portfolio, the company plays an important role in enabling secure, connected, and intelligent systems for manufacturers, infrastructure providers, and device makers worldwide.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 7.95
Total Equity: $10.45B
Shares: 254,331,000
Total Debt: $12.22B
Cash: $3.27B
EBITDA: $3.88B
Total Debt: $12.22B
Cash: $3.27B
Revenue: $12.27B
Revenue: $12.27B
Revenue: $12.27B
Total Equity: $10.45B
Tax Rate: 19.7%
Equity: $10.45B
Total Debt: $12.22B
Cash: $3.27B
Current Liabilities: $3.88B
Long-Term Debt: $10.97B
Total Debt: $12.22B
Total Equity: $10.45B
Shares: 254,331,000
Shares: 254,331,000
CapEx: -$397.00M
Shares: 254,331,000
Stock Price: $232.74
Net Income: $2.02B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 5:50am (12d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.1B | $13.2B | $13.3B | $12.6B | $12.3B |
| Cost of Revenue | $5.0B | $5.7B | $5.7B | $5.5B | $5.6B |
| Gross Profit | $6.1B | $7.5B | $7.6B | $7.1B | $6.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $3.5B | $3.7B | $3.9B | $3.7B | $3.7B |
| Operating Income | $2.6B | $3.8B | $3.7B | $3.4B | $3.0B |
| Net Income | $1.9B | $2.8B | $2.8B | $2.5B | $2.0B |
| EBITDA | $3.8B | $5.0B | $4.8B | $4.3B | $3.9B |
| EPS | $6.91 | $10.64 | $10.83 | $9.84 | $8.00 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.79 | $10.55 | $10.70 | $9.73 | $7.95 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:48pm (12d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.8B | $3.8B | $3.9B | $3.3B | $3.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $5.2B | $6.9B | $7.9B | $7.3B | $7.9B |
| Total Assets | $20.9B | $23.2B | $24.4B | $24.4B | $26.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.5B | $3.3B | $4.1B | $3.1B | $3.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | $10.2B | $10.4B | $11.0B |
| Total Liabilities | $14.1B | $15.5B | $15.4B | $14.9B | $16.1B |
| Total Equity | $6.8B | $7.7B | $9.0B | $9.5B | $10.5B |
| Retained Earnings | -$5.4B | -$4.0B | -$2.8B | -$1.8B | -$1.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 5:50am (12d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.1B | $3.9B | $3.5B | $2.8B | $2.8B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$767.0M | -$1.1B | -$827.0M | -$727.0M | -$397.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.3B | $2.8B | $2.7B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$23.0M | -$27.0M | $0 | $0 | -$1.2B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $4.0B | $1.5B | $0 | $670.0M | $1.9B |
| Dividends Paid | -$562.0M | -$815.0M | -$1.0B | -$1.0B | -$1.0B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$4.0B | -$1.4B | -$1.1B | -$1.4B | -$899.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $555.0M | $1.0B | $17.0M | -$570.0M | -$25.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 5:50am (12d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +19.4% | +0.5% | -5.0% | -2.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +23.9% | +0.5% | -5.7% | -5.7% |
| Operating Income Growth | +47.0% | -3.6% | -6.7% | -10.8% |
| Net Income Growth | +49.0% | +0.4% | -10.3% | -19.5% |
| EBITDA Growth | +31.3% | -5.5% | -8.9% | -10.7% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:49pm (12d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-25 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-10 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-17 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-25 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-19 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-05 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-12 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-13 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-20 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-12 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-12 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-13 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-14 | $1.01 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-14 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-14 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-14 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-14 | $0.85 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-14 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-14 | $0.56 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 10:02Even the bull case prices 66% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 83%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($234.71) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +7% | 24.2% | $80.29 | -66% |
| Base — stabilizes | +5% | 21.0% | $66.72 | -72% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +2% | 17.9% | $54.65 | -77% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -6% | 17.2% | $40.68 | -83% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-15Cheap models push inference to the edge: every additional autonomy, radar, sensor-fusion, battery-management and secure-connectivity function becomes economically worth shipping, and NXP monetizes that as dollars of content per vehicle and per industrial endpoint — a physical unit AI cannot dematerialize.
NXP captures essentially none of the datacenter AI accelerator/HBM pool that is absorbing the industry's incremental margin, while AI-assisted RTL/verification/analog-layout tooling lowers the cost of designing 'good enough' automotive MCUs and radar front-ends for Chinese and second-tier competitors, attacking the design-effort barrier that underwrites 54-57% gross margin.
Whether automotive edge intelligence consolidates into a few high-end central compute SoCs (NVIDIA/Qualcomm-style, where NXP is not the winner) or stays distributed across dozens of qualified MCUs and sensors. Watch NXP's disclosed automotive content-per-vehicle and design-win mix in zonal/central compute versus S32 MCU domain wins.
AEC-Q100/ASIL-D qualification history, decade-long OEM and Tier-1 design-in cycles, automotive security certification (secure element, NFC/UWB IP), and installed toolchain/software lock-in around S32 — none of which are code problems AI shortcuts.
AI Lens thesis
AI reaches NXP mainly as a demand-side content story and a competitive-cost story, not as a substitution threat: the customer need (vehicles and machines that sense, secure, connect and act) is physical and persistent, and the monetized unit is a qualified die shipped into a safety-critical bill of materials, which cheap intelligence does not erase and may multiply as edge inference gets affordable. But NXP is on the wrong side of the AI capital cycle — foundry and packaging capacity, engineering talent and wafer pricing are being bid up by accelerator demand while NXP's own product mix is auto/industrial cyclical, and its 3-year margin slide is cyclical/mix, not AI. Internally AI is a genuine but modest cost lever on verification, validation and test-time, which in a design-labor-heavy operating model is real operating leverage; externally the same tooling narrows the design-competence gap for entrants who still must clear qualification and OEM trust, which is the barrier that actually holds.
What the market may be underestimating
Upside Edge inference proliferation is a content multiplier in industrial IoT — eIQ/Neural-hub-enabled MCUs let NXP sell a higher-ASP part into sockets that previously took a commodity 8/16-bit device, quietly re-mixing the lowest-margin end of the portfolio upward.
Downside AI-driven consolidation of vehicle E/E architecture is a socket-count reducer: zonal controllers replace scores of discrete ECUs, and if NXP holds the MCU-per-ECU business rather than the zonal compute host, rising per-car intelligence can coexist with falling NXP unit volume.
Outcome range spread 44
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:13The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a deteriorating story that the models are partially capturing but framing inconsistently. Annual revenue peaked at $13.28B in 2023 and has now dropped two consecutive years to $12.27B in 2025 (-7.6% peak-to-trough), with operating income falling harder from $3.80B (2022) to $3.05B (2025), a 20% decline. Net income compressed from $2.80B to $2.02B over the same window. That's not a "trough with recovery" — that's mid-cycle margin erosion on flat-to-down volumes. Operating margin has drifted from ~28.8% in 2022 to 24.8% in 2025. The quarterly path is noisy but the Q1 2026 print showing $3.18B revenue with a suspiciously high 35.3% net margin ($1.12B NI) looks like a one-time item (tax benefit, gain on sale, or divestiture) rather than genuine operating leverage — the prior five quarters averaged ~17% net margin. I'd strip that out before any extrapolation.
The "accelerating quarterly trend" secondary signal is misleading: sequential revenue rose from $2.84B (Q1'25) to $3.34B (Q4'25) then dipped to $3.18B (Q1'26), which is normal seasonality, not acceleration. YoY comparisons are still negative (-2.7% recent, -3.9% three-year CAGR). The pre-flight thesis that the market is pricing "normalized $9-10 EPS" is the charitable read; the market-forces "value trap" call and the narrative layer's DCF at $119 are the more defensible ones. These two align, and I side with them. The synthesis fair value of $119-130 against a $232.73 price implies a ~49% overvaluation, and I don't see the offsetting bull data. Balance sheet is fine but not a fortress: $12.22B debt vs $3.27B cash = $8.95B net debt, D/E of 1.17, and EV/EBITDA of 17.6 on declining EBITDA is not cheap for a business shrinking earnings at ~15% CAGR.
The contrarian case worth engaging: NXP's automotive/industrial mix (~80% of revenue) is genuinely levered to content-per-vehicle growth, and if auto SAAR + EV penetration + ADAS content all inflect together in 2026-27, revenue could re-accelerate to $14-15B with 27%+ operating margins, producing $11-12 normalized EPS. At 20x that's $220-240 — roughly today's price. So the bull case doesn't produce meaningful upside; it produces price justification. That asymmetry is the killer. Meanwhile Chinese domestic MCU competitors (GigaDevice, etc.) are real and Infineon is aggressively pricing in auto MCUs. The narrative model's "97% premium is story" framing overstates the gap slightly (I'd argue fair value is closer to $150-170 accounting for franchise quality), but the direction is right. The lone insider award of 2,075 shares in July 2026 is noise — no open-market buying, which for a stock down 31% from highs is telling; insiders don't see a bargain.
Where the data is thin: Q1'26's margin spike needs a footnote check before it's used in any model, and none of the prior outputs flag it. The macro headwinds signal is directionally right but generic — the specific risk is auto inventory destock extending into H2 2026 as Tier-1s work down pandemic-era stockpiles. Also, ROIC of 12.6% against a likely 9-10% WACC means NXP is creating value, but barely, and the spread is narrowing. I agree with the synthesis verdict of overvalued but think the $119 fair value is too punitive for a franchise with 54.7% gross margins and $2.42B FCF (3.9% FCF yield at current cap). Fair value in the $155-175 range is more defensible, still implying 25-33% downside. The synthesis, market-forces, and narrative models are directionally aligned; the pre-flight and rule-based archetype are too generous. No reason to own here — wait for either a $170 handle or two consecutive quarters of positive YoY revenue with margin stabilization above 25% operating.
GPT Reading
At $233, NXP is being valued like a high-quality compounder even though the reported business is behaving like a cyclical grower stuck in a downcycle. The last four reported quarters add to roughly $12.3B of revenue and about $2.65B of net income, but that headline understates how uneven the earnings base is: quarterly net margin swung from 13.6% to 35.3% in just two quarters, with the latest March quarter printing $1.12B of net income on only $3.18B of revenue. That kind of jump is not the signature of a clean secular re-acceleration; it looks more like noise from tax, one-offs, or accounting timing layered on top of a business whose revenue has basically gone sideways to down. Annual revenue fell from $13.28B in 2023 to $12.61B in 2024 to $12.27B in 2025, while net income fell from $2.80B to $2.51B to $2.02B. On the actual annual numbers, this is a shrinking earnings base trading at 29.5x earnings, 17.6x EV/EBITDA, and 4.9x sales. That is rich.
What stands out to me is that the quality is real, but the price already capitalizes that quality too generously. Gross margin of 54.7% and operating margin of 24.8% are excellent for an analog/mixed-signal automotive-heavy semiconductor company, and ROIC at 12.6% says this is not a bad business. Free cash flow of $2.42B on $12.27B of revenue is still a healthy near-20% conversion before financing, and capex needs are modest at just $397M. The balance sheet is not distressed either: $3.27B of cash, a 2.05 current ratio, and debt/equity of 1.17 are manageable for this kind of cash generator. But none of that justifies pretending the downturn is trivial. Operating income declined from $3.80B in 2022 to $3.66B in 2023 to $3.42B in 2024 to $3.05B in 2025. Free cash flow and earnings CAGR are negative. If I normalize this business around something like $2.5B-$3.0B of annual FCF and low-single-digit growth, a near-$58.5B market cap is hard to defend.
The market’s implicit bet seems to be that earnings are depressed and will rebound sharply as automotive and industrial demand normalize, making today’s P/E optically high but economically reasonable. I agree with the first half of that argument but not the multiple being paid for it. If NXP can get back to roughly its 2023 earnings power of $2.8B, the stock is still about 21x that level of net income before giving credit for further growth. For a company with negative three-year revenue CAGR, negative earnings CAGR, and clear cyclical exposure, that is not cheap. The latest quarterly revenue pattern does show some stabilization — $2.84B, $2.93B, $3.17B, $3.34B, then $3.18B — so I do not buy the most dramatic “value trap” language. But stabilization is different from a new growth regime, and the current valuation still seems to assume something closer to the latter.
The best case against my view is straightforward: NXP’s end markets are better than the trailing numbers imply, and the trough may already be behind it. Revenue confidence does look decent, the latest quarter’s year-over-year growth versus the March 2025 quarter was positive at about 12%, and the sharp rebound in net income to $1.12B could signal the earnings algorithm snaps back hard once utilization and mix improve. If normalized EPS really is closer to $9-$10, then $233 implies a low-to-mid-20s multiple on normalized earnings for a scarce, high-margin automotive and industrial asset with durable design-in positions, not an outrageous valuation in a market that rewards quality semiconductor franchises. I weigh that less heavily because the annual deterioration is too persistent to dismiss, and because even on that “normalized” framing the stock is not obviously cheap — it is merely less expensive than the trailing P/E suggests.
What would change my mind is not another one-off high-margin quarter; it is evidence that the top line and operating income have resumed sustained growth. If NXP can put up two to three consecutive quarters above $3.3B-$3.4B in revenue with net margins holding above 20% absent unusual items, and annual operating income clearly turning back toward $3.5B-$3.7B, then the current price would look more justifiable. Conversely, if free cash flow stays stuck around $2.4B while revenue remains below the 2023 peak, I would become more bearish still. As it stands, this is a good company priced like the recovery is both imminent and durable.
Grok Reading
NXP’s numbers describe a high-quality cyclical that has already rolled over and is still being paid as if the next up-cycle will be permanently better. Annual revenue has slipped from a $13.28B peak in 2023 to $12.61B in 2024 and $12.27B in 2025; net income compressed harder, from $2.80B to $2.51B to $2.02B. Trailing twelve-month economics therefore sit at roughly $8 of EPS and $2.42B of free cash flow against a $58.5B equity value and ~$67B enterprise value, producing a 29.5× P/E, ~24× P/FCF and 17.6× EV/EBITDA. Sequential quarters show modest stabilization—revenue climbing from $2.84B to $3.34B before a $3.18B print—but the most recent $1.12B net-income spike (35% margin) is an obvious outlier versus the 14–22% band that prevailed for two years and should be normalized away. Gross margin remains respectable at 54.7% and operating margin at 24.8%, yet both are below the 2022–23 peaks, ROIC has settled at 12.6%, and the balance sheet carries $12.2B of debt against only $3.3B of cash. Negative three-to-five-year CAGRs (revenue –3.9%, earnings –15%, FCF –5%) are simply not consistent with a mid-to-high-20s earnings multiple unless the market is already capitalizing a multi-year automotive-content super-cycle.
The valuation synthesis that pins fair value near $119–130 is directionally correct even if the precise DCF is harsh: at mid-cycle assumptions of $13–13.5B revenue and 18–20% net margins one can justify $9.50–11 of EPS, and a 18–20× multiple on that range still only clears $170–220. At $233 the stock therefore sits at the optimistic edge of a full recovery already priced in, with little margin of safety if China competition or a softer auto build year delays the rebound. Strong FCF conversion and low absolute capex ($397M) are real strengths, yet they are already visible in the cash-flow yield and do not require a 97% narrative premium over a steady-state DCF.
The strongest counter-argument is that automotive electrification and ADAS content growth are secular, not cyclical, and that NXP’s microcontroller and radar franchise can expand sockets fast enough to restore mid-teens revenue growth and push ROIC back above 15%. A bull can also point to the recent sequential revenue acceleration, above-sector margin benchmarks, and the fact that the stock is already 31% off its highs, arguing the multiple will look ordinary once earnings normalize to $10. I weigh that less heavily because the same content-growth story has been the dominant narrative for several years while reported revenue and earnings have still declined; the competitive set (Infineon, Renesas, and foundry pricing pressure) is not standing still; and leverage of 1.17× debt-to-equity leaves less room for a prolonged trough than a pristine balance sheet would.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive if two consecutive quarters deliver revenue above $3.4B with sustained operating margins north of 27% and clear evidence that automotive design-win ramps are offsetting industrial and mobile weakness, or if management materially reduces net debt while holding FCF above $2.8B. Until then the risk-reward at $233 favors waiting.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
NXPI shows the hallmarks of a mature, high-quality semiconductor franchise: gross margins have held in a tight 54.7-56.9% band across five years, operating margins have run 23-29%, and the business converts earnings to cash reliably (OCF/NI 1.36x, accruals -3.5% of assets, Beneish M -2.57). Altman Z of 3.13 places it in the safe zone. FCF has stayed between $2.06B and $2.83B every year despite a cyclical top-line, indicating genuine operating durability rather than accrual-driven earnings.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Segment/end-market detail: how much of the 2024-2025 softness is Automotive vs Industrial/IoT vs Mobile, and inventory correction stage
- Customer concentration disclosures in the 10-K (top-10 customer share)
- Debt maturity ladder and net leverage vs the Altman Z read
- SBC as % of revenue vs buyback pace to confirm per-share protection is genuine
- Any management commentary on structural GM% trajectory (mix, utilization, pricing) given the 2025 dip
- R&D and capex intensity relative to peers to assess moat reinvestment
The composite fair value sits at $130.25 and the signal-adjusted at $118.99 against a $234.71 price, implying roughly -45% to -49% downside if the synthesis is right. DCF ($85.79) and EPV ($83.65) cluster tightly in the mid-$80s, suggesting the cash-flow reality of a cyclical automotive/industrial semi supports well under half of today's price. Only the anchored-PE method ($265.77) supports the tape, and that method effectively capitalizes peak-ish multiples on softening 2025 earnings, so it deserves less weight when revenue is declining.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- 2026 guidance and whether auto/industrial book-to-bill has inflected
- segment-level detail on automotive MCU pricing and share vs Infineon/Renesas
- capex and buyback trajectory - free cash flow sustainability at current margins
- any one-offs suppressing 2025 earnings that would raise the normalized base
The macro backdrop is mildly supportive (VIX 14, S&P near highs, risk-on +52), and with a 1.83 beta NXP would normally be a leveraged beneficiary of that tape. It isn't. Momentum is deeply negative (-3.9% CAGR, deteriorating 3y trend) while the S&P sits at highs - a classic sign the name is being actively sold into strength elsewhere. That is the tell: the tape is a tailwind for beta, but this specific name is fighting a story problem.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether more sell-side notes downgrade or trim targets after the pushback on the auto growth call
- Auto SAAR data and Tier-1 order commentary - any confirmation of a cyclical peak accelerates the de-rate
- Whether the stock can participate in any risk-on rally or continues to decouple from beta peers
- Infineon and Renesas commentary on pricing - competitive intensity is the narrative kill-shot
AI reaches NXP mainly as a demand-side content story and a competitive-cost story, not as a substitution threat: the customer need (vehicles and machines that sense, secure, connect and act) is physical and persistent, and the monetized unit is a qualified die shipped into a safety-critical bill of materials, which cheap intelligence does not erase and may multiply as edge inference gets affordable. But NXP is on the wrong side of the AI capital cycle — foundry and packaging capacity, engineering talent and wafer pricing are being bid up by accelerator demand while NXP's own product mix is auto/industrial cyclical, and its 3-year margin slide is cyclical/mix, not AI. Internally AI is a genuine but modest cost lever on verification, validation and test-time, which in a design-labor-heavy operating model is real operating leverage; externally the same tooling narrows the design-competence gap for entrants who still must clear qualification and OEM trust, which is the barrier that actually holds.
None surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- zonal/central compute design wins
- socket count per vehicle trend
- S32 platform revenue disclosure
- automotive semi content per vehicle
- industrial/IoT endpoint unit growth
- EV and ADAS program cadence
- mature-node capacity oversupply signals
- foundry pricing for 16/28nm
The world is electrifying and software-defining the car, which raises silicon content per vehicle regardless of how many cars are sold — that is the structural tailwind under NXP. What has gone wrong is inventory, not adoption: Tier-1s and distributors over-ordered through the shortage and have spent an extended stretch shipping from shelves rather than buying. Layered on top are two genuine structural shifts: China building a domestic automotive semiconductor supply chain that will permanently cap NXP's share of the fastest-growing EV market, and a broader industry where capital and margin are migrating toward AI compute rather than embedded control. NXP is not in the path of AI capex upside, so it neither benefits from the sector's one growth engine nor suffers from its bubble risk. The honest reading is a mid-single-digit-growth franchise inside a cyclical category, currently at or near the bottom of a correction, whose earnings leverage cuts both ways.
When we made this prediction on Aug 15, 2026, NXPI was $234.66. We expect it to be $208.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $160.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 15, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.