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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 15, 2026
18 days ago · 100% complete
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for New York Times Co. (NYT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-02): Designation Watch · Gem Score -11 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 75 · Value -69 · Sentiment -1 (timing only, not weighted)

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

New York Times Co.

NYT NYSE
Communication Services · Publishing
New York, NY 10018, United States nytco.com Updated Aug 15, 10:29am
Price
$64.79
Market Cap
$10.4B
Employees
5,900
Beta
0.93
Avg Volume
2,031,295
Last Dividend
$0.82
CEO
Ms. Meredith A. Kopit Levien

New York Times Co. is a media company that creates, collects, and distributes news and information through print and digital channels. The company’s portfolio includes The New York Times, NYTimes.com, mobile applications, podcasts, and interest-specific products such as Cooking, Games, and Audio. It also operates The Athletic, a sports media service focused on coverage and analysis for fans and subscribers. In addition to journalism, New York Times Co. offers related content and services designed to support subscription-based readership across consumer and professional audiences. Headquartered in New York City, the company plays a central role in the global news market by combining traditional reporting with digital media products and specialized content offerings.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 15, 2026 10:39am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$64.79
as of Aug 15, 10:47am (18d ago)
Change · Aug 15
+0.66 (+1.03%)
Day Range
$64.26 – $65.27
52-Week Range
$54.10 – $87.10
50-Day MA
$72.19
200-Day MA
$73.00
Volume
1,441,500.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 18d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 161,536,193.00
Float 134,291,165.00
Free Float 83.1%
High free float — 83.1% of shares trade freely, ~16.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:51am (18d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:51am (18d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 15, 2026 10:36am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
31.00
Stock Price: $64.79
EPS (Diluted): 2.09
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
5.24
Stock Price: $64.79
Total Equity: $2.04B
Shares: 164,943,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
19.97
Market Cap: $10.45B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $255.45M
EBITDA: $516.56M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$10.3B
Market Cap: $10.45B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $255.45M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
50.8%
Gross Profit: $1.44B
Revenue: $2.82B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
15.3%
Operating Income: $431.56M
Revenue: $2.82B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
12.2%
Net Income: $343.98M
Revenue: $2.82B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
16.9%
Net Income: $343.98M
Total Equity: $2.04B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
18.4%
Operating Income: $431.56M
Tax Rate: 23.8%
Equity: $2.04B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $255.45M
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.54
Current Assets: $1.03B
Current Liabilities: $666.70M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $2.04B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$17.13
Revenue: $2.82B
Shares: 164,943,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$12.38
Total Equity: $2.04B
Shares: 164,943,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$3.34
Operating CF: $584.49M
CapEx: -$33.98M
Shares: 164,943,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.3%
Last Dividend: $0.82
Stock Price: $64.79
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $343.98M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 15, 2026 10:36am
Compares NYT against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:51am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $2.1B $2.3B $2.4B $2.6B $2.8B
Cost of Revenue $1.0B $1.2B $1.2B $1.3B $1.4B
Gross Profit $1.0B $1.1B $1.2B $1.3B $1.4B
Operating Expenses $767.3M $897.4M $900.8M $925.3M $1.0B
Operating Income $268.0M $202.0M $276.3M $351.1M $431.6M
Net Income $220.0M $173.9M $232.4M $293.8M $344.0M
EBITDA $325.5M $284.6M $362.4M $434.0M $516.6M
EPS $1.31 $1.04 $1.41 $1.79 $2.11
EPS (Diluted) $1.31 $1.04 $1.40 $1.77 $2.09
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:29am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $320.0M $221.4M $289.5M $199.4M $255.4M
Total Current Assets $952.7M $655.7M $781.7M $936.3M $1.0B
Total Assets $2.6B $2.5B $2.7B $2.8B $3.0B
Current Liabilities $559.2M $571.2M $611.6M $613.5M $666.7M
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $1.0B $933.8M $951.4M $914.3M $955.7M
Total Equity $1.5B $1.6B $1.8B $1.9B $2.0B
Retained Earnings $1.8B $2.0B $2.1B $2.3B $2.6B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:51am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $269.1M $150.7M $360.6M $410.5M $584.5M
Capital Expenditure -$34.6M -$37.0M -$22.7M -$29.2M -$34.0M
Free Cash Flow $234.5M $113.7M $337.9M $381.3M $550.5M
Acquisitions (net)
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 -$105.1M -$44.6M -$85.0M -$165.3M
Net Change in Cash
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:51am (18d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +11.3% +5.1% +6.6% +9.2%
Gross Profit Growth +6.2% +7.1% +8.4% +12.4%
Operating Income Growth -24.6% +36.8% +27.1% +22.9%
Net Income Growth -20.9% +33.6% +26.4% +17.1%
EBITDA Growth -12.6% +27.3% +19.8% +19.0%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 10:31am (18d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-08 $0.23
2026-04-01 $0.23
2026-01-06 $0.18
2025-10-08 $0.18
2025-07-09 $0.18
2025-04-01 $0.18
2025-01-10 $0.13
2024-10-09 $0.13
2024-07-09 $0.13
2024-04-01 $0.13
2024-01-02 $0.11
2023-10-06 $0.11
2023-07-10 $0.11
2023-04-04 $0.11
2023-01-03 $0.09
2022-10-06 $0.09
2022-07-08 $0.09
2022-04-05 $0.09
2022-01-04 $0.07
2021-10-07 $0.07
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 12 computed · 6 not applicable · 6 not yet run
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Not computed yet
Why there is no ratio: Risk:reward has not been computed for this name yet — its report predates the mechanical valuation chain. It is added, at $0, the next time a report or the nightly touches this ticker.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for NYT — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:34

The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.

Growing A subscription-first bundle compounding ~8-12% revenue with much faster earnings growth, taking share inside a structurally shrinking publishing category — durable, but not the 20%+ compounder the price assumes. conf 8/10
Share gain Category shrinking · Publishing is contracting at a -5.4% long-run CAGR with recent YoY roughly flat (-0.1%) and the sector cycle in slowdown; NYT grew revenue +12.0% in the latest matched quarter and +9.2% recent YoY — a ~9pp positive gap. It is not riding a tide, it is absorbing the demand that exiting publishers leave behind, while also expanding into adjacent non-news categories (games, sports, recipes) that the traditional category definition understates.
Next 2 quarters
Growing
Digital subscription revenue is contractually visible for two quarters out, bundle price step-ups are already scheduled into cohorts, and cost discipline plus Athletic contribution keep incremental margins high. Licensing adds lumpy upside. Only the ad line is genuinely uncertain, and it is too small to reverse the direction.
↑ above expectations
Year 1
Growing
Full-year shape is high-single to low-double-digit revenue with faster earnings growth as print costs shrink and Athletic stops diluting. Nothing in the visible pipeline breaks that; the only downside vector is advertising softness in a slowdown macro.
≈ inline with expectations
Years 2–3
Growing
Earnings power keeps expanding: ARPU, engagement-driven retention, non-news products and licensing all compound, and the shrinking category keeps handing over demand. But the engine's slope flattens — subscriber adds decelerate on a 10M+ base, margin expansion has a ceiling, and AI compression of the free funnel bites the gross-add line. Growing, not Accelerating.
↓ below expectations
The creme: each rung's call measured against what's already printed (vs analyst estimates · vs guidance / FY consensus · vs price-implied growth) — expectations in print are already in the price, so only the variant margin can pay. Hover a rung's chip for the margin read.
Growth drivers
72 Bundle ARPU step-up — The multi-product bundle (News + Games + Cooking + Athletic + Wirecutter) lets NYT raise revenue per subscriber independent of net adds: promotional cohorts roll to full price and price increases stick because engagement across 2+ products lowers churn. This is the mechanism that keeps digital subscription revenue growing faster than subscriber count as the funnel matures.
65 Operating leverage on a digital cost base — Matched-quarter YoY shows operating income +54.5% and net income +77.4% on +12.0% revenue. Incremental digital subscription and licensing dollars carry near-zero marginal cost while print/legacy costs shrink; Athletic has crossed from loss-drag toward contribution. Earnings CAGR 21.7% vs revenue CAGR 7.9% over multiple years confirms this is structural, not a one-quarter mix fluke.
61 Share gain against a declining category — Company recent YoY +9.2% against industry -0.1% and a -5.4% long-run category CAGR — a ~9pp gap. Consolidation of trusted general-news demand into a few national brands as local/mid-tier publishers exit is a one-way flow that NYT captures without price competition.
34 Content licensing as high-margin incremental revenue — Archive and live-content licensing to AI platforms converts a legal/competitive threat into a recurring, essentially costless revenue line. It is lumpy and under-modeled, which is why it has contributed to the recent estimate beats.
40 Non-news products as the growth engine — Games and Cooking add subscribers whose demand is habit-driven, not news-cycle-driven, smoothing the post-election-year comp problem that historically made news publishers cyclical.
Growth risks
51 AI intermediation of the top of funnel — Search-based AI answers compress referral traffic, which is the free-sampling layer that feeds registrations and eventual subscriptions. NYT is unusually insulated (app-direct, high brand intent, newsletter/audio habits), but a shrinking funnel eventually shows up as slower gross adds even if churn stays low.
34 Advertising exposure into a slowing macro — Macro headwinds and a sector demand score of -1 hit the ad line first; digital ad growth is uneven and print advertising continues its terminal decline. Ads are a minority of revenue but are the most volatile piece and the most likely source of a soft print.
45 Law of large numbers on subscriber adds — With 10M+ digital subscribers, net-add growth mathematically decelerates; the story increasingly depends on price and mix rather than volume. Any consumer resistance to repeated price increases converts a growth story into a mid-single-digit one quickly.
56 Price already assumes far more than the trajectory — Price-implied growth of +20.3% against a house projection of +10.4% is a 9.9pp gap. Nothing in the measured record — 7.9% revenue CAGR, category at ~0% — supports a durable 20% top-line compounding rate; only the earnings line has run that fast, and margin expansion has a ceiling.
The world is consolidating news consumption into a handful of national brands with direct relationships, and NYT is the clearest beneficiary: trust plus a bundle that converts a news habit into a daily multi-product habit. The genuine change in the environment is AI-mediated discovery, which attacks the free funnel rather than the paid base — NYT's answer is direct-app distribution plus licensing its archive to the intermediaries, which turns some of the threat into revenue. Against that, the macro backdrop (10y at 4.63, headwind regime) pressures the advertising minority of the P&L and consumer willingness to absorb serial price increases. Net: the business direction is up and structurally supported, but the shape shifts from subscriber-volume growth toward ARPU and margin, which is inherently a decelerating-slope engine over several years.
Growth position composite +31
ShrinkingStallingHoldingGrowingAccelerating
70Next 2 quarters · Growing
70Year 1 · Growing
70Years 2–3 · Growing
+31Composite (−100…+100)
A research prediction, not advice. Forward-graded: each rung is scored against the prints that follow it. Not an input to the GEM designation — track record first.
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-15 10:50:24
Verdict Modestly overvalued, not egregiously — fair value $55-62 vs $64.79; hold quality, don't chase, add on pullbacks below $55.

Looking at the raw numbers first: NYT is compounding quite nicely. Annual revenue went $2.07B → $2.31B → $2.43B → $2.59B → $2.82B, a clean ~8% CAGR with acceleration in the last two years (9.2% most recent). Operating income moved $268M → $202M → $276M → $351M → $432M — that's 61% cumulative op income growth on 36% revenue growth, so operating leverage is real. Operating margin has walked from 12.9% (2021) to 15.3% (2025), and gross margin sits at 50.8%. FCF of $550M on a $10.45B market cap is a 5.3% FCF yield, and with capex of only $34M this is a capital-light business. Q1 2026 revenue of $712M vs Q1 2025 of $636M is 12% YoY — the trajectory is accelerating, not decelerating. Zero debt, $255M cash, ROIC 18.4%. This is a genuinely high-quality asset.

Now, the synthesis says fair value $40-43 against $65, i.e., 33% overvalued. I think that's too harsh, and here's where I part company with the DCF-driven models. A business growing revenue 9% with 20%+ earnings growth, ROIC of 18%, zero debt, and a $550M FCF stream that grew 27.6% CAGR does not deserve a mid-single-digit terminal multiple. 31x P/E on trailing looks rich, but on 2026E earnings (extrapolating Q1's 77% YoY NI jump — though that's noisy quarter-to-quarter) the forward multiple compresses meaningfully. EV/EBITDA of 19.9x for a growing, debt-free subscription business with pricing power is not egregious versus, say, consumer staples trading at 22-25x with 3% growth. The "$43 fair value" implicitly assumes 5% growth and terminal margins near current levels — but margins are still expanding and top-line is accelerating.

Where the models are right to be cautious: the Thesis Evaluation's 87% penetration point is the real bear case, not AI. If NYT already has ~11M subs against a plausible English-speaking premium-news TAM of 12-15M households, then subscriber growth must transition to ARPU expansion, and the model's SaaS-like framing breaks. The Athletic remains unproven economically. Insider activity is just tax-withholding F-InKind — no signal either way, and the "No Insider Transactions" tag is misleading given two prints appear. I'd also flag the 2026-08-10 insider dates and Q1 2026 revenue — the file appears to be time-shifted or has a date convention issue worth verifying before trading on it. The pre-flight calling this "high-growth" is a stretch: 9% revenue growth is good-mature, not high-growth, and mislabeling the archetype propagates through the valuation.

My verdict: partial dissent from the synthesis. I don't buy $43 fair value — that undervalues the FCF machine and the demonstrated operating leverage. But I also don't think $65 is a bargain. A fair multiple for a 9% grower with 20% earnings growth, 18% ROIC, no debt, and $550M FCF is probably 25-28x earnings or ~4% FCF yield, which lands intrinsic value in the $55-62 range. So NYT is modestly rich, not dramatically so. The market forces read ("own for quality, trim on rallies") is closer to correct than the synthesis's "-33%" verdict. The real risk isn't AI disintermediation in 3-5 years (news brands actually benefit from AI slop making trusted sources more valuable) — it's the subscriber saturation math forcing a growth deceleration that the market hasn't priced. I'd own a smaller position here, add below $55, trim above $75.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-15 10:50:41
Verdict Fairly valued to slightly rich at $64.79 — superior business quality and cash generation justify a premium, but upside looks limited unless NYT sustains 9-10% growth with 15%+ operating margins.

What stands out is not a fragile legacy newspaper clinging to relevance, but a very clean, steadily compounding media asset that the “overvalued by DCF” framing may undersell on quality. Revenue has risen from $2.07B in 2021 to $2.82B in 2025, a 36% increase, while net income went from $220.0M to $344.0M, up 56%. Operating income improved from $268.0M to $431.6M over that span, and 2025 operating margin reached 15.3% with net margin at 12.2%. More important, the cash conversion is excellent: $584.5M of operating cash flow and $550.5M of free cash flow on $344.0M of net income means this is not an accounting story. With no debt and $255.4M of cash, equity holders own an unusually resilient franchise. The quarter-to-quarter pattern also looks healthy rather than promotional: Q1 2026 revenue of $712.2M was up 12.0% from $635.9M a year earlier, and net income jumped 77% to $87.9M from $49.6M. That is not what a saturated, ex-growth asset usually looks like.

The stock is expensive on ordinary screens, but I think the key analytical question is whether NYT deserves to be treated as a generic publisher. At $10.45B market cap, investors are paying about 3.7x sales, 31x earnings, and roughly 19x free cash flow using the $550.5M figure. For a cyclical ad-driven media company, that would be rich. For a debt-free subscription-led business with gross margins above 50%, ROIC of 18.4%, and demonstrated pricing and cost discipline, it is much less outrageous. The annual revenue progression is also accelerating in dollar terms: +$160M in 2022, +$120M in 2023, +$160M in 2024, +$230M in 2025. Meanwhile, quarterly margins have remained solid even outside the seasonally stronger Q4, with 2025 quarters at 7.8%, 12.1%, 11.7%, and 16.2%, followed by 12.3% in Q1 2026. That consistency suggests the business has already crossed from “turnaround” to “durable compounder.” I do not see evidence here that the market is hallucinating software economics; I see a business that has actually earned a premium multiple through stability, cash generation, and a balance sheet that removes a lot of downside scenarios.

That said, I still cannot call the shares cheap at $64.79. If I annualize the latest quarter loosely, earnings power is perhaps in the low-to-mid $300M range, which is basically where 2025 landed. So the market is not paying for depressed earnings that can snap back; it is paying up for continued high-single-digit revenue growth and further margin improvement from an already respectable 15% operating margin. On an equity base of $2.04B, the company earns a strong 16.9% ROE, but the 5.2x price-to-book tells you investors are capitalizing the franchise well beyond tangible accounting value. That can work for years, but it leaves little room for a stumble. My read is that NYT is a high-quality business priced like one: not a short, but not obviously mispriced to the upside either. Fair value feels closer to the high-$50s than the low-$40s because the DCF-style bears are too punitive on durability, but $65 already discounts a lot of the quality.

The best argument against my more constructive read is simple: the stock’s premium requires growth that may be harder to sustain than the recent numbers imply. Revenue CAGR of 7.9% since 2021 is good, not extraordinary, and a 31x P/E multiple on sub-10% top-line growth can derate quickly if subscriber additions slow, pricing power fades, or ad softness returns. Q1 2026’s 12.3% net margin was good, but still below Q4’s 16.2%, reminding you this is not a pure subscription software annuity. The market narrative may also be too generous in treating all digital subscription revenue as equally durable when consumer bundles can churn under pressure and AI tools may weaken direct visits and perceived necessity over time. If you instead anchor on a mature-earner framework, then 19x EBITDA and 3.8x sales for a publisher is simply too full, and the valuation synthesis around low-$40s starts to look less crazy.

What would change my mind either way is straightforward. If the next few quarters show revenue growth slipping toward 5% or less while operating margin stalls around 12% to 13%, then the premium multiple should compress and I would move bearish, probably seeing fair value in the low-to-mid $50s or below. Conversely, if NYT can sustain 9% to 10%+ revenue growth through 2026 while holding annualized operating margin at or above 15% and free cash flow above $550M, then today’s multiple is supportable and the stock can grow into a $70+ value without narrative stretch. For now, the business is better than many valuation models admit, but the stock price already knows it.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-15 10:51:25
Verdict Quality mature earner, but $64.79 prices in too much residual growth; fair value nearer $52–56

The raw numbers describe a capital-light compounder that has already done most of the hard work of transforming a newspaper into a subscription engine. Revenue climbed from $2.07B in 2021 to $2.82B in 2025, a 7.9% CAGR, while operating income more than doubled from the 2022 trough of $202M to $432M and free cash flow reached $550.5M on only $34M of capex. That is a 19.5% FCF margin and a business that converts nearly all operating cash into free cash. Net margin expanded to 12.2%, ROIC sits at 18.4%, and the balance sheet carries zero debt against $255M cash and $2.04B of equity. Recent quarters confirm the trajectory: Q1 2026 revenue of $712M was up roughly 12% from the year-earlier $636M, with net margin recovering to 12.3% from 7.8%. Earnings and FCF have grown far faster than sales (21.7% and 27.6% CAGRs), which is the signature of mix shift and operating leverage, not of a business still inventing its model.

What the multiple is asking for is another matter. At $64.79 the stock trades at 31x earnings, 3.8x sales and roughly 19x the latest free-cash-flow run-rate, implying a FCF yield of only about 5.3%. That price embeds continued high-single-digit revenue growth, further margin expansion toward the mid-teens operating level, and durable pricing power on a subscriber base the models already flag as approaching household saturation. The rule-based classifier correctly tags this as a mature earner; the “high-growth / SaaS-like” framing overstates the remaining runway. An 8–9% top line with mid-teens earnings growth is excellent for a media franchise, but it does not justify software multiples once the easy digital conversion is behind it. My read of the cash flows alone points to fair value nearer the low-to-mid $50s; the gap to $65 is narrative premium, not present economics.

The strongest counter-argument is that quality and scarcity deserve a permanent premium. Bulls will correctly note the 50.8% gross margin, fortress balance sheet, Games-driven low-CAC funnel, demonstrated pricing power, and the fact that FCF has compounded at nearly 28% while the company still throws off a 1.3% dividend. They will also argue that 31x forward earnings on a no-debt compounder with 18% ROIC is not extreme if earnings can keep growing mid-teens for several more years and The Athletic eventually contributes rather than dilutes. That case is coherent; I simply weigh the penetration and AI-disintermediation risks more heavily. Subscriber growth is now a measured, decelerating variable rather than an open-ended TAM story, and generative AI lowers the switching cost of “good enough” news summaries. Those are not distant hypotheticals; they are already visible in the bear mass that slightly outweighs the bull mass in the thesis score.

I would reverse to a constructive stance if the next two reported quarters show digital subscriber net adds re-accelerating above 8–10% annualized while operating margin clear 16% on a trailing basis, or if management demonstrates pricing realization that lifts ARPU enough to keep FCF growing mid-teens even as unit growth slows. A sustained break of the stock below $52–54 on no fundamental deterioration would also reset the risk-reward. Until one of those occurs, the shares look rich relative to the cash they actually produce.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 3.0; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 5.0
fairly valued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +2.0 vs panel · self: 6.0
Grok grok-4.5 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ -1.0 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-15 11:07:21
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
Genuinely strong business at a genuinely rich price - great company, wrong entry point.
The cruxWhether digital subscriber growth and ARPU can hold at the 8-10% pace already baked into $65, because at that price there's no margin of safety left if it slips.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from NYT's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionShare Count Shrinking
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+75
Strong
edge √Σ 125 · risk √Σ 29 · conf 8/10

Revenue has grown every year from $2.07B (2021) to $2.82B (2025), a ~8% CAGR, while gross margin expanded from 49.9% to 50.8% and operating margin climbed from 12.9% to 15.3%. Net income rose from $220M to $344M and FCF nearly doubled from $234M in 2021 to $550M in 2025 - operating leverage is real, not accounting-driven, with OCF/NI at 1.35x and accruals at -3.6% of assets. Beneish M of -2.73 and Altman Z of 9.31 both sit deep in safe territory. The balance sheet is a fortress relative to the business: $642M liquid cash, zero net debt, and FCF alone would fund operations many times over. Capital discipline is a genuine positive: diluted share count fell from 168.5M to 164.9M (-0.5% CAGR), and buybacks run 157% of SBC (2.6% of revenue), so per-share value is compounding on top of business growth. The insider tape shows only routine tax-withholding (F-InKind) events with no open-market activity in either direction - neutral rather than confirmatory. The main things that keep this from a higher rung are the modest absolute scale of the moat (subscription news/games/cooking bundle in a structurally challenged industry) and a single-digit growth profile that, while consistent, is not extraordinary.

Strengths 4
m70
Consistent margin and FCF expansion
Operating margin expanded from 12.9% (2021) to 15.3% (2025); FCF grew from $234M to $550M, more than doubling as revenue grew ~36%.
m65
Fortress balance sheet, zero net debt
$642M cash with no offsetting debt; FCF of $550M means the business is deeply self-funding with no external-capital dependency.
m55
Per-share value compounding
Diluted shares fell from 168.5M to 164.9M; buybacks 157% of SBC while SBC is a contained 2.6% of revenue.
m60
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.35x, accruals -3.6% of assets, Beneish M -2.73, Altman Z 9.31 - mechanical checks find nothing amiss.
Concerns 2
m25
Structurally challenged industry
Publishing remains a secularly pressured category; NYT's bundle strategy has worked but the durability of pricing power beyond current subscriber cohorts is not verifiable from the numbers alone.
m15
No confirmatory insider buying
Only F-InKind tax-withholding events; no open-market P or S transactions to read as a signal either way.
This is a genuinely well-run business - the numbers form a coherent story of a company that pivoted successfully to digital subscriptions and is now harvesting operating leverage. Margins expanding while revenue grows, FCF outpacing net income, share count shrinking, net cash on the balance sheet, and forensic checks all clean - there's nothing to be suspicious of here. I'd put it firmly in the 'Strong' bucket rather than 'Fortress' because the underlying industry is secularly tough and the growth rate, while steady, is not exceptional. But as a business state, this is a healthy, disciplined, self-funding compounder.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Subscriber growth mix and ARPU trajectory across News, Games, Cooking, Wirecutter, The Athletic in the latest 10-K/10-Q
  • Digital-only subscriber retention and pricing steps; churn trends
  • Advertising revenue trend vs. subscription (mix shift and cyclicality)
  • Pension obligations and any off-balance-sheet liabilities in 10-K footnotes
  • Capital return policy - dividend growth and buyback authorization remaining
  • Any material customer/platform concentration (e.g., Apple News, licensing to AI firms)
Valuation / Mispricing
-69
Rich
edge √Σ 25 · risk √Σ 110 · conf 7/10
price $64.79 vs deserved ~$43-51 (composite $40.83, DCF $51.26) - roughly 25-35% above fair, negative margin of safety. attractive below $48.00

At $64.79 the market cap is ~$10.4B against a composite fair value of $40.83 and a signal-adjusted FV of $43.13 - roughly 33% downside on the blended read. The DCF at $51.26 is the most generous method and still sits ~21% below the current price; the anchored P/E at $41.96 corroborates the composite, while the EPV floor of $18.83 is a runaway low-end input (it ignores the durable subscription growth) and should be down-weighted rather than used as a target. Earnings quality is high, so no haircut is warranted - the deserved value already reflects clean cash generation.

Cheap signals 1
m25
Quality and clean earnings support upper end of FV
High earnings quality, net cash, buybacks, and FCF > NI justify anchoring deserved value nearer the DCF ($51) than the composite - but that still doesn't reach $65.
Rich / priced-in 4
m72
Price ~50% above composite FV
$64.79 vs composite FV $40.83 implies -33% upside. Even signal-adjusted FV of $43.13 leaves a ~50% overpayment.
m60
Even the generous DCF says overvalued
DCF at $51.26 is the highest credible method and still ~21% below price. The anchored P/E ($41.96) agrees with the composite, so two of three methods cluster in the low $40s.
m55
Priced for the bull case
Current price requires sustained 10%+ subscriber growth, ongoing ARPU hikes, and continued margin expansion - the platform-monopoly narrative fully in the tape with no discount for churn or ad-cycle risk.
m20
EPV floor is a runaway low input
EPV of $18.83 assumes no growth on a business demonstrably compounding subs and ARPU - discount it, but note that even excluding it the average is only ~$47.
I like the business, I don't like the price. Two of three valuation methods land in the low $40s and even the most bullish DCF says $51 - the market is paying $64.79 for a story that's already well-known and well-owned. There's no edge in paying full retail for consensus quality. I'd want it in the high $40s (say sub-$48) before I'd get interested, and I'd need a real drawdown or a subscriber-growth wobble to get there. For now: fully valued to modestly rich, pass.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Digital subscriber net adds and ARPU trajectory in the next 1-2 quarters - any deceleration collapses the growth assumption embedded in price
  • Bundle attach rates (Cooking, Athletic, Games, Wirecutter) and churn disclosures
  • Ad revenue trend and margin guide - to test whether operating leverage is still expanding
  • Any change in content or licensing deals (AI licensing) that could reset the terminal value
General Sentiment
-1
Balanced
tail √Σ 76 · head √Σ 77 · conf 6/10

NYT is riding a durable 'moat of trust' narrative -- platform monopoly, 12.8M digital subs, subscription-first re-rating -- which is exactly the kind of story that holds up in a calm, risk-on tape (VIX 14.3, S&P near highs). With beta 0.93 and a defensive-ish subscription profile, the macro tape neither punishes nor turbocharges this name; it is a mild tailwind at best. The narrative intensity is strong and the cult coefficient is meaningful, which keeps a bid under the stock even when print prints look ugly. That said, the most recent news pulse is a negative post-Q2 reaction: revenue beat, ad revenue +20.7%, subs at record -- but the market focused on cost and margin pressure, and coverage is flagging NYT among 'favorite stocks walking a fine line.' That is a classic sign of a narrative running slightly ahead of numbers, with analyst tone still bullish but starting to prod at the setup. Net-net: story tailwind and macro tailwind roughly offset by a fresh headline-driven wobble and the well-known gap between DCF ($43) and price ($65). Pressure is close to neutral with a faint negative tilt from the earnings-reaction hangover.

Tailwinds 3
m55
Strong platform-monopoly narrative
'Gold standard for news' story with moderate durability and medium cult coefficient keeps a persistent bid under the stock and frames every subscriber print as validation.
m35
Risk-on tape, low-beta fit
VIX 14.3, indices near highs, regime established. Beta 0.93 subscription media benefits modestly -- calm tape lets the compounding narrative breathe.
m40
Q2 fundamentals reinforce the story
Digital subs 12.8M and ad revenue +20.7% give bulls fresh ammunition; analyst price targets still skew bullish per recent coverage.
Headwinds 3
m55
Negative post-earnings market reaction
Despite the beat, the tape sold the print on cost and margin worries -- a clear signal sentiment is getting pickier and the bar is rising.
m45
Story running ahead of fundamentals
Price ($65) vs DCF ($43) requires belief in sustained 8-10% sub growth and pricing power; media flagging NYT as 'walking a fine line' hints narrative fatigue is possible.
m30
AI-summary and ad structural overhang
Bear frame (AI summaries, commoditizing news, ad softness) is a low-grade but persistent drag on multiple for the whole publishing cohort.
Net pressure is roughly balanced with a faint negative lean. The narrative is strong and the macro tape is friendly to a low-beta subscription name, but the market just punished a genuinely strong Q2 on cost worries, and coverage is starting to whisper that expectations are stretched. This is not a stock being pushed hard in either direction right now -- it is a crowded, well-liked name where the story is doing the heavy lifting and the tape is asking for more. Slight headwind on the margin from the earnings-reaction hangover, but nothing decisive.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether post-Q2 selling extends or reverses over next 2-3 weeks
  • Any downward target revisions citing margin pressure
  • Signs of subscriber growth deceleration in next print
  • AI/licensing headlines that either validate or undercut the moat-of-trust narrative
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
+31
Growing
edge √Σ 126 · risk √Σ 94 · conf 8/10

The world is consolidating news consumption into a handful of national brands with direct relationships, and NYT is the clearest beneficiary: trust plus a bundle that converts a news habit into a daily multi-product habit. The genuine change in the environment is AI-mediated discovery, which attacks the free funnel rather than the paid base — NYT's answer is direct-app distribution plus licensing its archive to the intermediaries, which turns some of the threat into revenue. Against that, the macro backdrop (10y at 4.63, headwind regime) pressures the advertising minority of the P&L and consumer willingness to absorb serial price increases. Net: the business direction is up and structurally supported, but the shape shifts from subscriber-volume growth toward ARPU and margin, which is inherently a decelerating-slope engine over several years.

Growth drivers 5
m72
Bundle ARPU step-up
The multi-product bundle (News + Games + Cooking + Athletic + Wirecutter) lets NYT raise revenue per subscriber independent of net adds: promotional cohorts roll to full price and price increases stick because engagement across 2+ products lowers churn. This is the mechanism that keeps digital subscription revenue growing faster than subscriber count as the funnel matures.
m65
Operating leverage on a digital cost base
Matched-quarter YoY shows operating income +54.5% and net income +77.4% on +12.0% revenue. Incremental digital subscription and licensing dollars carry near-zero marginal cost while print/legacy costs shrink; Athletic has crossed from loss-drag toward contribution. Earnings CAGR 21.7% vs revenue CAGR 7.9% over multiple years confirms this is structural, not a one-quarter mix fluke.
m61
Share gain against a declining category
Company recent YoY +9.2% against industry -0.1% and a -5.4% long-run category CAGR — a ~9pp gap. Consolidation of trusted general-news demand into a few national brands as local/mid-tier publishers exit is a one-way flow that NYT captures without price competition.
m34
Content licensing as high-margin incremental revenue
Archive and live-content licensing to AI platforms converts a legal/competitive threat into a recurring, essentially costless revenue line. It is lumpy and under-modeled, which is why it has contributed to the recent estimate beats.
m40
Non-news products as the growth engine
Games and Cooking add subscribers whose demand is habit-driven, not news-cycle-driven, smoothing the post-election-year comp problem that historically made news publishers cyclical.
Growth risks 4
m51
AI intermediation of the top of funnel
Search-based AI answers compress referral traffic, which is the free-sampling layer that feeds registrations and eventual subscriptions. NYT is unusually insulated (app-direct, high brand intent, newsletter/audio habits), but a shrinking funnel eventually shows up as slower gross adds even if churn stays low.
m34
Advertising exposure into a slowing macro
Macro headwinds and a sector demand score of -1 hit the ad line first; digital ad growth is uneven and print advertising continues its terminal decline. Ads are a minority of revenue but are the most volatile piece and the most likely source of a soft print.
m45
Law of large numbers on subscriber adds
With 10M+ digital subscribers, net-add growth mathematically decelerates; the story increasingly depends on price and mix rather than volume. Any consumer resistance to repeated price increases converts a growth story into a mid-single-digit one quickly.
m56
Price already assumes far more than the trajectory
Price-implied growth of +20.3% against a house projection of +10.4% is a 9.9pp gap. Nothing in the measured record — 7.9% revenue CAGR, category at ~0% — supports a durable 20% top-line compounding rate; only the earnings line has run that fast, and margin expansion has a ceiling.
vs expectations: ~6m above · 1y inline · 2-3y below
The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
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Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for NYT — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.588 · 336f38cd · 2026-09-02 09:56:34