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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -2 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 56 · Value -49 · Sentiment -29 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $81.84 vs $204.52 at analysis
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Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.
ODFL NASDAQOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is a North American less-than-truckload motor carrier specializing in regional, inter-regional, and national freight transportation for business-to-business shippers. The company operates a single, integrated, union-free network designed to move palletized and partial-load freight efficiently across the United States, with extended services into Canada, Mexico, and select global markets. Beyond its core LTL offering, Old Dominion Freight Line provides complementary services such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, supply chain consulting, and logistics solutions tailored to complex distribution needs. The carrier focuses on time-sensitive and service-critical shipments, including standard and expedited options, to support industrial, retail, and commercial supply chains. Headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina, Old Dominion Freight Line plays a significant role in U.S. surface transportation by offering reliable, high-frequency freight capacity that connects key production, import, and consumption hubs. Its network density and integrated service model position it as a core transportation partner for companies seeking consistent, high-quality LTL coverage across diverse geographic markets.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.84
Total Equity: $4.31B
Shares: 211,598,000
Total Debt: $20.00M
Cash: $120.09M
EBITDA: $1.73B
Total Debt: $20.00M
Cash: $120.09M
Revenue: $5.50B
Revenue: $5.50B
Revenue: $5.50B
Total Equity: $4.31B
Tax Rate: 24.8%
Equity: $4.31B
Total Debt: $20.00M
Cash: $120.09M
Current Liabilities: $483.91M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $20.00M
Total Equity: $4.31B
Shares: 211,598,000
Shares: 211,598,000
CapEx: -$415.03M
Shares: 211,598,000
Stock Price: $204.52
Net Income: $1.02B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 21, 2026 1:21am (2d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.3B | $6.3B | $5.9B | $5.8B | $5.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $3.9B | $4.4B | $4.2B | $4.3B | $4.1B |
| Operating Income | $1.4B | $1.8B | $1.6B | $1.5B | $1.4B |
| Net Income | $1.0B | $1.4B | $1.2B | $1.2B | $1.0B |
| EBITDA | $1.7B | $2.1B | $2.0B | $1.9B | $1.7B |
| EPS | $8.94 | $12.26 | $11.33 | $5.51 | $4.86 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $8.89 | $12.18 | $11.26 | $5.48 | $4.84 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 21, 2026 1:03am (2d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $462.6M | $186.3M | $433.8M | $108.7M | $120.1M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.4B | $933.7M | $1.1B | $720.7M | $694.8M |
| Total Assets | $4.8B | $4.8B | $5.5B | $5.5B | $5.5B |
| Current Liabilities | $464.2M | $529.8M | $544.7M | $540.5M | $483.9M |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $1.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.2B |
| Total Equity | $3.7B | $3.7B | $4.3B | $4.2B | $4.3B |
| Retained Earnings | $3.5B | $3.4B | $4.0B | $4.0B | $4.1B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 21, 2026 1:21am (2d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.2B | $1.7B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.4B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$550.1M | -$775.1M | -$757.3M | -$771.3M | -$415.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $662.5M | $916.4M | $811.8M | $888.0M | $955.1M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | -$20.0M | -$20.0M | -$20.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$92.4M | -$134.5M | -$175.1M | -$223.6M | -$235.6M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$536.5M | -$1.3B | -$453.6M | -$967.3M | -$730.3M |
| Net Change in Cash | $61.1M | -$276.3M | $247.5M | -$325.1M | $11.4M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 21, 2026 1:21am (2d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +19.1% | -6.3% | -0.9% | -5.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +32.3% | -10.9% | -5.9% | -11.8% |
| Net Income Growth | +33.1% | -10.0% | -4.3% | -13.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +28.2% | -7.2% | -3.9% | -8.6% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 15, 2026 9:16am (8d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-04 | $0.29 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-03 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-03 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-04 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-05 | $0.28 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-04 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-04 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-05 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-05 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-05 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-05 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-06 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-28 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-06 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-06 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-31 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-01 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-30 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-21 02:04Even the bull case prices 77% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 84%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($204.52) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +1% | 22.4% | $47.41 | -77% |
| Base — stabilizes | +1% | 19.4% | $41.48 | -80% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +0% | 16.5% | $35.71 | -83% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -6% | 18.8% | $32.59 | -84% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-21 02:03The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw print shows a business in cyclical trough with an odd Q2 2026 pop that deserves scrutiny before anything else. Revenue: 2022 peaked at $6.26B, drifted to $5.81B in 2024, $5.50B in 2025 — a three-year negative CAGR while op margin compressed from 29.4% (2022) to 24.7% (2025). Then Q2 2026 supposedly prints $1.55B revenue and a 22.6% net margin ($350.6M NI) after four consecutive quarters at $1.31–1.41B. That's a 17% sequential revenue jump with no macro freight recovery narrative to support it — I'd flag this as either a data artifact, a one-time gain, or an acquisition/accounting item. The trailing quarters don't corroborate; Q1 2026 was $1.33B/17.9% margin, the weakest print in the series. If you strip out the Q2 anomaly, ODFL is a business earning ~$1.0B on $5.5B revenue with declining top line and 200bps of margin erosion.
On valuation, the synthesis fair value of ~$84 versus $204 is directionally right but I think slightly too punitive. A clean LTL leader with $955M FCF, ROIC of 24%, and effectively zero debt ($20M against $4.31B equity) deserves a scarcity premium — there are maybe three assets in North American surface transport with this balance sheet quality. At $42.4B market cap, ODFL trades at 44x FCF and 7.9x sales. Even generous normalization — assume freight recovers, revenue reflates to $6.5B by 2028, op margins recover to 27%, NI to $1.35B — you get ~31x forward earnings on recovered numbers. That still leaves fair value in the $110–140 range on a 20–25x normalized multiple, not $84 and not $204. The DCF-anchored $84 assumes no cyclical recovery; the market's $204 assumes permanent margin expansion. Both are wrong; reality is a $120-ish midpoint.
The contrarian case against my own skepticism: ODFL genuinely has structural advantages that the DCF can't capture. Non-union labor structure in an industry where Yellow Corp just went bankrupt and TFI/Saia are the only credible share-takers means ODFL captured incremental volume permanently. The FCF CAGR is +8.5% even as revenue CAGR is -3.2% — that's operating leverage plus disciplined capex ($415M, down from peak) working exactly as management describes. ROIC of 24% on a capital-intensive industrial is extraordinary. If you believe LTL is consolidating to two or three winners and pricing discipline holds through the cycle, then paying 40x trough earnings for the best operator is defensible — but it's a faith trade, not a math trade. The narrative model's assessment that "story carries 60% of premium" feels about right.
I partially dissent from the synthesis. The verdict of "overvalued" is correct in direction but the $84 fair value is too aggressive on the downside — it treats ODFL as a pure cyclical rather than a quality compounder with a structural cost advantage. The market forces "neutral" and pre-flight "traditional" reads are appropriate. The Q2 2026 anomaly needs to be investigated before any position sizing — a real $350M NI quarter would change the trajectory materially; a one-timer would not. The narrative durability call of "moderate" is the key variable: if freight stays weak into 2027 and Saia keeps expanding capacity aggressively, the pricing-power story breaks and multiple compression to 25x is fast and violent — that's your $130 downside case. If volumes normalize in 2026 and ODFL captures another 200bps of share, the premium holds and $204 looks reasonable. Neither the "buy" nor the extreme "sell to $84" is right. Wait for either a re-rating catalyst (a bad print that resets sentiment) or a fundamentals surprise (Q3 2026 confirming Q2 was real). Starter position only makes sense sub-$150; current $204 offers zero margin of safety on any reasonable normalization scenario.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers say Old Dominion is still an exceptional operator, but the stock price is asking investors to pay an exceptional multiple for a business that is not currently growing. Revenue fell from $6.26B in 2022 to $5.87B in 2023, $5.81B in 2024, and $5.50B in 2025. Net income followed the same path, down from $1.38B in 2022 to $1.24B, then $1.19B, then $1.02B. That is not a broken company; it is a cyclical LTL carrier managing through a freight downturn while still posting a 24.8% operating margin and 18.6% net margin in 2025. In fact, what stands out most is how little the business has cracked despite the downturn: 2025 operating cash flow was $1.37B and free cash flow was $955M after $415M of capex, with essentially no leverage at $20M of debt against $4.31B of equity. This is a fortress balance sheet attached to a best-in-class trucking franchise. But fortress balance sheets do not by themselves justify 42x earnings, 7.9x sales, and 24.6x EV/EBITDA on shrinking annual revenue.
The near-term quarterly trend is better than the annual trend, and that is the main reason the stock can hold a premium. Revenue troughed at $1.31B in 4Q25 and rose to $1.33B in 1Q26 and $1.55B in 2Q26; net income improved from $229.5M to $238.3M to $350.6M, with margin rebounding to 22.6% in the latest quarter from 17.6% two quarters earlier. On a year-over-year basis, 2Q26 revenue is up about 10% versus $1.41B in 2Q25 and net income is up roughly 31% versus $268.6M. So the business is clearly recovering. But even if I annualize the latest quarter at an aggressive run-rate, you get something like $1.4B of earnings power in a strong environment, and the market cap is already $42.4B. That is still about 30x a cyclical peak-ish earnings scenario for a trucking company. The market is not just paying for recovery; it is paying for ODFL to be structurally different from every other industrial transport name for a very long time.
I think that is too much. ODFL deserves a premium because returns are elite: ROE of 23.8%, ROIC of 24.3%, and almost no debt is rare in trucking. It also deserves credit for defending margins far better than peers would in a freight recession. But valuation eventually has to reconnect to business economics. A company with a 2021-2025 revenue CAGR of only about 1% and a 2022-2025 earnings decline of roughly 26% should not trade like a compounder that is still in its high-growth phase. The contradiction I see in the data is that the “quality” case is real while the “growth” case is mostly anticipatory. At $204, investors are paying today for a full-cycle comeback plus sustained share gains plus permanence of best-in-class margins. That bundle may happen, but the current multiple leaves very little room for the normal industrial reality that freight markets stay messy longer than expected.
The best argument against my view is that ODFL is exactly the kind of company that screens expensive for years because conventional valuation frameworks understate the value of durable execution superiority. The latest quarter supports that rebuttal: a 22.6% net margin in a trucking business is extraordinary, and the swing from $1.31B of revenue in 4Q25 to $1.55B in 2Q26 suggests operating leverage is very powerful when freight improves. If 2026 is the inflection year and earnings can climb back toward or above the 2022 peak of $1.38B without any meaningful balance-sheet risk, then a premium multiple may compress less than bears expect because the “E” is rising quickly. The lack of debt matters too: with just $20M of debt and nearly $1B of annual FCF in a weak year, ODFL has enormous strategic and buyback flexibility. A smart bull would say this is not a trucker with a good cycle, but the quality consolidator in LTL, and paying 30x trough-to-midcycle earnings is acceptable for that scarcity.
What would change my mind is simple: I would need to see the recovery become broad enough to justify the multiple, not just prove the company is excellent. Specifically, if 2026 annual revenue re-accelerates toward $5.9B-$6.1B and net income gets back above $1.2B with margins holding near or above 20%, then the stock starts to look less absurd because the earnings base is resetting higher again. More importantly, if that happens without leverage and with FCF staying around or above $1B, I would accept that the market is correctly valuing a structurally advantaged franchise rather than overpaying for a cyclical rebound. Absent that, I think fair value is materially below the current quote; even a generous 22-25x normalized earnings framework points much closer to $140-$170 than $205.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a best-in-class LTL franchise that has been grinding through a multi-year freight recession and has only just flashed a real inflection. From the 2022 peak of $6.26B revenue and $1.38B net income, ODFL slid to $5.50B and $1.02B by 2025—revenue CAGR of roughly –3% and earnings CAGR near –9%. Operating margins compressed from the mid-20s toward the high teens on a quarterly basis through early 2026, exactly the cyclical pattern you expect in trucking. Then the June 2026 quarter arrived: $1.55B revenue and a 22.6% net margin producing $350.6M of net income. That single print annualizes above the 2025 run-rate and restores peak-cycle profitability. Free cash flow remains robust at $955M against only $415M of capex, the balance sheet is essentially unlevered ($20M debt versus $120M cash and $4.31B equity), and ROIC sits at 24%. The operating engine is intact; the cycle simply took a bite out of volumes and pricing for three years.
What the market is paying for that engine is the entire problem. At $204.52 the stock trades at 42× trailing earnings, 7.9× sales and 24.6× EV/EBITDA—multiples that embed not merely a full cyclical recovery but permanent share gains and margin expansion that would make a software company blush. Even if the latest quarter’s run-rate holds and net income reverts toward the prior peak of ~$1.4B, the forward multiple is still ~30× on a capital-intensive, GDP-linked industrial. The valuation synthesis fair value near $85 is too punitive—it effectively applies a mid-teens multiple to trough cash flows and ignores the quality of the franchise—but the direction of that verdict is correct. A realistic normalized framework (mid-cycle EPS in the $6.50–7.50 range, 22–25× multiple justified by 24% ROIC and fortress balance sheet) lands closer to $150–175. At $204 the stock still prices roughly 20–35% of upside that has not yet been earned in cash.
The strongest counter-argument is that the June quarter is not noise and that ODFL’s structural advantages—non-union labor, density-driven service metrics, and ongoing LTL consolidation—will convert the current recovery into a multi-year earnings ramp that justifies leaving the multiple elevated. Revenue confidence is tagged as accelerating, FCF quality is strong, and the company has historically taken share precisely when weaker carriers stumble. If volumes reaccelerate into high-single-digit growth while margins stabilize above 20%, 2027–28 earnings could push toward $8 per share; at a still-premium 25× that supports a mid-$200s price and makes today’s level look merely full rather than stretched. The narrative that ODFL is the “Tesla of trucking” is coherent enough that institutional holders treat the premium as structural, not cyclical. I weigh this less heavily because trucking remains volume- and price-cyclical, capex will rise with any sustained recovery, and a 42× multiple leaves zero room for a second dip or for labor-cost normalization. History shows that even superior operators de-rate hard when freight softens; the cult of quality has simply delayed that reckoning.
I would reverse to neutral or undervalued only on sustained evidence that the June quarter was the start of a durable re-acceleration: two more consecutive quarters of mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth with net margins holding above 20%, or clear sequential yield expansion independent of fuel surcharges. A sharp multiple compression toward 25× while earnings recover (i.e., the stock grinds sideways as fundamentals catch up) would also close the gap without requiring a price collapse.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
ODFL runs a genuinely elite trucking operation: 24.8% operating margin in 2025 is extraordinary for LTL, FCF of $955M actually exceeded net income of $1.02B (OCF/NI 1.28x), and Altman Z of 24.86 sits deep in fortress territory. Accruals at -6.2% of assets and a buyback-to-SBC ratio near 60x indicate management prioritizes returning capital and reports conservative, cash-backed earnings. Net cash position and self-funding status mean survival is a non-question.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Confirm the 2024 diluted share jump (110.1M to 216.5M) is a stock split rather than real issuance
- Actual buyback dollars deployed 2023-2025 and change in shares outstanding net of split
- Customer concentration and exposure to industrial/retail freight cycle
- Operating ratio trend and pricing discipline commentary in latest 10-K
- Capex intensity and terminal network investment cadence vs peers
The e2e composite fair value of $81.84 (signal-adjusted $84.51) implies -59% downside, but the DCF ($48) and EPV ($50) floors look punitive for a debt-free operator with best-in-class margins and are almost certainly under-crediting normalized cyclical earnings. The anchored-PE of $181 is the most defensible signal and it still sits ~12% below the $204.52 price. Averaging up the quality-adjusted deserved value - anchored PE plus a premium for fortress balance sheet, buyback cadence, and pristine earnings quality - I get to a deserved range of roughly $170-$195. That puts today's price at the high end to slightly above fair.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Q/Q tonnage and shipment trends vs peers
- Operating ratio trajectory and whether pricing is holding through the soft cycle
- Buyback pace at current price - are they still repurchasing aggressively above $200
- Management commentary on 2025 cycle timing and pricing discipline
The tape is neutral with a mild tailwind bias, but ODFL is a 1.18-beta cyclical trucker exposed to a freight cycle that has yet to inflect, so the market's calm doesn't translate into a clean push higher for this name. The active narrative -- 'Tesla of trucking,' operational excellence, secular LTL consolidation -- is strong and moderately durable, and it is what's holding a 2.4x sales multiple aloft against a DCF that anchors near $84. Goldman's recent target lift feeds that story, giving the bulls fresh cover. Cutting the other way, news flow is now openly asking the valuation question ('Looks Fully Valued'), and the July 30 post-earnings drop despite a beat shows the market is quick to punish anything less than pristine guidance at this multiple. Momentum is negative, higher rates and a 25.9 market PE pressure premium-multiple industrials, and the bear narrative (cyclical, no moat beyond execution) is gaining airtime. Net: the quiet-quality halo and analyst support roughly offset valuation fatigue, a soft freight cycle, and macro rate pressure -- pressure is real on both sides but not decisive either way.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether sell-side target revisions continue upward or start rolling over after the Goldman lift
- LTL tonnage and pricing prints from peers (SAIA, XPO) that could reinforce or crack the secular-consolidation story
- Any rotation out of quality-compounder industrials into deeper cyclicals if the curve steepens
- Follow-through on the 'fully valued' media framing -- does it spread to more outlets
The freight world is in the late innings of an inventory-and-industrial destocking cycle: trucking capacity that flooded in during the boom has been exiting, and LTL specifically has absorbed redistributed freight from carrier failures. That backdrop rewards the operator with owned terminals, a non-union cost base and the discipline to price rather than chase volume — which is exactly ODFL's shape. But the macro overlay (elevated long rates, weak capex, contraction-phase demand) means the recovery's volume leg is being deferred, so near-term gains come from yield and cost, not tonnage. Structurally, LTL remains a physical-network business insulated from digital disintermediation; the real question is whether North American industrial goods volumes resume growing at all. Our read: they stabilize rather than boom, making ODFL a share-gaining compounder inside a low-growth category — real, but nowhere near what the price arithmetic demands.
When we made this prediction on Aug 21, 2026, ODFL was $206.03. We expect it to be $185.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $170.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 21, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.