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PARTIAL Analysis Report
Apr 23, 2026
18 days ago · 100% complete
Partial analysis — no complete end-to-end run on record.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

PANW NASDAQ Categories PDF
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Santa Clara, CA 95054, United States IPO 2012 paloaltonetworks.com Updated May 11, 4:07pm
Price
$213.73
Market Cap
$145.7B
Employees
15,758
Beta
0.77
Avg Volume
10,370,062
CEO
Nikesh Arora
Business Description

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. provides cybersecurity solutions worldwide. The company offers firewall appliances and software; Panorama, a security management solution for the control of firewall appliances and software deployed on an end-customer's network and instances in public or private cloud environments, as a virtual or a physical appliance; and virtual system upgrades, which are available as extensions to the virtual system capacity that ships with physical appliances. It also provides subscription services covering the areas of threat prevention, malware and persistent threat, uniform resource locator filtering, laptop and mobile device protection, and firewall; and DNS security, Internet of Things security, SaaS security API, and SaaS security inline, as well as threat intelligence, and data loss prevention. In addition, the company offers cloud security, secure access, security analytics and automation, and threat intelligence and cyber security consulting; professional services, including architecture design and planning, implementation, configuration, and firewall migration; education services, such as certifications, as well as online and in-classroom training; and support services. Palo Alto Networks, Inc. sells its products and services through its channel partners, as well as directly to medium to large enterprises, service providers, and government entities operating in various industries, including education, energy, financial services, government entities, healthcare, Internet and media, manufacturing, public sector, and telecommunications. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

Business History
Generated: Apr 23, 2026 10:00am
Price Overview
Last updated: May 12, 2026 11:03am (just now)
$215.05
+1.39 (+0.65%)
Day Range
$210.77 – $216.16
52-Week Range
$139.57 – $223.61
50-Day MA
$169.67
200-Day MA
$184.94
Volume
2,144,381.24
Analyst Price Targets
Low $157.00
Consensus $209.65
High $265.00
(184 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 681,511,324.00
Float 675,319,793.00
Free Float 99.1%
High free float — 99.1% of shares trade freely, ~0.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: May 12, 2026 9:16am (1h ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: May 7, 2026 4:48pm (4d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Apr 23, 2026 12:04pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
115.84
Stock Price: $213.73
EPS (Diluted): 1.71
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
14.70
Stock Price: $213.73
Total Equity: $7.82B
Shares: 709,300,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
64.41
Market Cap: $145.66B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.27B
EBITDA: $1.94B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$113.1B
Market Cap: $145.66B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.27B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
73.4%
Gross Profit: $6.77B
Revenue: $9.22B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
13.5%
Operating Income: $1.24B
Revenue: $9.22B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
12.3%
Net Income: $1.13B
Revenue: $9.22B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
15.5%
Net Income: $1.13B
Total Equity: $7.82B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
5.8%
Operating Income: $1.24B
Tax Rate: 28.9%
Equity: $7.82B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $2.27B
Zero debt — invested capital = equity minus cash (very efficient)
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
0.89
Current Assets: $7.10B
Current Liabilities: $7.99B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.00
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $7.82B
Zero debt — this company carries no debt obligations. Strongest possible score.
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$13.00
Revenue: $9.22B
Shares: 709,300,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$11.03
Total Equity: $7.82B
Shares: 709,300,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.89
Operating CF: $3.72B
CapEx: -$246.20M
Shares: 709,300,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $213.73
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.13B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Apr 23, 2026 12:04pm
Compares PANW against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Apr 23, 2026 12:08:20 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for High Growth Profitable companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: May 7, 2026 4:48pm (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $4.3B $5.5B $6.9B $8.0B $9.2B
Cost of Revenue $1.3B $1.7B $1.9B $2.1B $2.5B
Gross Profit $3.0B $3.8B $5.0B $6.0B $6.8B
Operating Expenses $3.3B $4.0B $4.6B $5.3B $5.5B
Operating Income -$304.1M -$188.8M $387.3M $683.9M $1.2B
Net Income -$498.9M -$267.0M $439.7M $2.6B $1.1B
EBITDA -$46.6M $95.6M $869.0M $1.3B $1.9B
EPS $-0.86 $-0.45 $0.73 $4.04 $1.71
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: May 8, 2026 3:44am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $1.9B $2.1B $1.1B $1.5B $2.3B
Total Current Assets $4.6B $6.4B $6.0B $6.8B $7.1B
Total Assets $10.2B $12.3B $14.5B $20.0B $23.6B
Current Liabilities $5.1B $8.3B $7.7B $7.7B $8.0B
Long-Term Debt $1.7B $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Liabilities $9.5B $12.0B $12.8B $14.8B $15.8B
Total Equity $763.6M $210.0M $1.7B $5.2B $7.8B
Retained Earnings -$1.7B -$1.7B -$1.2B $1.4B $2.5B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: May 8, 2026 3:44am (4d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $1.5B $2.0B $2.8B $3.3B $3.7B
Capital Expenditure -$116.0M -$192.8M -$146.3M -$156.8M -$246.2M
Free Cash Flow $1.4B $1.8B $2.6B $3.1B $3.5B
Acquisitions (net) -$777.3M -$37.0M -$204.5M -$610.6M -$1.1B
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$1.2B -$892.3M -$272.7M -$566.7M $0
Net Change in Cash -$1.1B $244.7M -$982.6M $404.6M $732.4M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: May 11, 2026 4:07pm (18h ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $13.6B
$12.0B – $14.1B
$15.5B
$15.4B – $15.5B
$17.4B
$16.2B – $17.9B
$19.6B
$18.3B – $20.2B
EBITDA $5.8B
$5.2B – $6.1B
$6.6B
$6.6B – $6.7B
$7.5B
$7.0B – $7.7B
$8.4B
$7.9B – $8.7B
Net Income $2.9B
$2.6B – $3.1B
$2.5B
$2.4B – $4.4B
$3.5B
$3.2B – $3.6B
$0
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: May 7, 2026 4:48pm (4d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +29.3% +25.3% +16.5% +14.9%
Gross Profit Growth +26.9% +31.7% +19.8% +13.4%
Operating Income Growth +37.9% +305.1% +76.6% +81.7%
Net Income Growth +46.5% +264.7% +486.2% -56.0%
EBITDA Growth +305.2% +809.0% +46.9% +52.1%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: May 12, 2026 9:16am (1h ago)
Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-03-06 GOETZ JAMES J 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-02-12 Bawa Aparna A-Award 24.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-08 Key John P. S-Sale 1,572.00 $173.32 $272,459
2026-04-01 Paul Josh D. F-InKind 947.00 $160.32 $151,823
2026-04-01 Paul Josh D. S-Sale 1,100.00 $161.40 $177,540
2026-04-01 Golechha Dipak S-Sale 200.00 $157.81 $31,562
2026-04-01 Golechha Dipak S-Sale 1,300.00 $160.04 $208,051
2026-04-01 Golechha Dipak S-Sale 3,500.00 $160.70 $562,464
2026-03-27 Arora Nikesh P-Purchase 100.00 $147.48 $14,748
2026-03-27 Arora Nikesh P-Purchase 67,985.00 $146.87 $10.0M
2026-03-10 Paul Josh D. A-Award 26,369.00 $0.00 $0
2026-03-06 GOETZ JAMES J S-Sale 8,500.00 $163.83 $1.4M
2026-03-06 GOETZ JAMES J S-Sale 14,184.00 $164.76 $2.3M
2026-03-02 Paul Josh D. S-Sale 1,700.00 $147.90 $251,430
2026-02-12 Klarich Lee A-Award 70.00 $0.00 $0
2026-02-12 Arora Nikesh A-Award 165.00 $0.00 $0
2025-08-19 Paul Josh D. A-Award 14,393.00 $0.00 $0
2026-01-08 Klarich Lee M-Exempt 92,010.00 $32.25 $3.0M
2026-01-08 Klarich Lee S-Sale 12,620.00 $189.60 $2.4M
2026-01-08 Klarich Lee S-Sale 46,192.00 $190.69 $8.8M
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-04-23 17:39:30
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly overvalued — fair value $130-145 on honest FCF math; hold if owned, wait for sub-$150 or evidence of growth re-acceleration above 18% before adding.

Looking at the raw quarterly cadence first: revenue has marched from $1.98B (Apr-24) to $2.59B (Jan-26), about 14-15% YoY — respectable but clearly decelerating from the 20%+ prints of prior years. What jumps out more is the net income volatility: $357M → $351M → $267M → $262M → $254M → $334M → $432M. The Jan-26 NI of $432M producing a 16.7% margin looks impressive until you remember the trailing four quarters sum to roughly $1.28B of NI on ~$9.9B revenue — a ~13% net margin, consistent with the TTM ratios, and not actually an acceleration relative to the FY24 $2.58B NI (which itself was flattered by a large deferred tax benefit). The GAAP operating margin of 13.5% against a 73.4% gross margin tells you opex is still enormous — this remains a heavily stock-comp-subsidized P&L, and FCF of $3.47B on $9.22B revenue (37.6%) is the number that actually matters.

On valuation: $118B market cap against $3.47B FCF is ~34x trailing FCF, and ~12.3x EV/sales. For 15% revenue growth decelerating, that's rich but not absurd — FTNT trades around 9-10x sales at similar growth, CRWD at ~20x at higher growth. PANW sits in the middle exactly where it should, which means the synthesis model's framing of "29.3% implied growth" feels overstated to me. A reverse-DCF at ~10% discount and terminal 3% on $3.47B FCF actually implies something closer to 11-12% FCF CAGR for a decade to justify $118B — not heroic, but not free either. The 93x P/E is a red herring given the FY24 tax benefit distortion; FCF yield of ~2.9% is the honest anchor.

Where I disagree with the synthesis: it leans hard on "28:1 insider selling ratio" and "massive insider selling" as a damning signal, yet the insider activity signal in the same file reads "Net Insider Buying" — note the 67,985 share P-Purchase on 2026-03-27, which is a real open-market buy, not option exercise. These two prior outputs contradict each other and the synthesis appears to have picked the scarier narrative. Most of the "sales" shown are small and many are F-InKind (tax withholding) or M-Exempt (option-related). The synthesis also asserts "share loss" and "earnings quality" problems without the file actually substantiating them — the FCF Quality tag says "Strong," and the accrual ratio of 3.42x it cites isn't visible in the data provided. I'd dock the synthesis for importing conclusions that aren't in evidence here.

The contrarian case that actually has teeth: cybersecurity is consolidating, but PANW's platformization is partly a financial engineering exercise (deferred payment terms to land platform deals) that has pulled forward revenue recognition risk and compressed near-term billings optics — this is a real concern and explains why the quarterly NI bounces around. Microsoft bundling E5 security is a genuine structural threat at the SMB/mid-market layer; CrowdStrike owns the endpoint narrative; Zscaler owns SSE. PANW's answer is "buy them all into one SKU," which works for CIOs consolidating vendors but doesn't work if any single module is materially inferior. At 12x sales, you're paying for execution you haven't seen yet in the growth line — 14.9% YoY is not a platform-consolidation growth rate.

Where the data is thin: no total debt figure, no equity figure, no share count trajectory (critical for a company with heavy SBC), and the FY24 NI of $2.58B vs FY25 NI of $1.13B drop is unexplained in the file — that's the deferred tax asset release reversing, and without flagging it the earnings_cagr of 60.6% and recent_earnings_yoy of -56% are both misleading artifacts. The pre-flight correctly identifies this as a mature cash-generative transition story; the synthesis then over-dramatizes it.

Net read: I dissent from "High Conviction Required" as too wishy-washy and lean modestly bearish on price, not thesis. The business is fine; the price embeds a re-acceleration that isn't in the quarterly tape. Fair value on 25-28x FCF (appropriate for 12-14% FCF growth with platform optionality) against $3.47B FCF is ~$87-97B, or roughly $128-142/share. At $173 you're paying ~20-25% premium to that, with the platform thesis as your margin of safety cushion — which isn't really a cushion.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-04-23 17:39:42
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — PANW is modestly overvalued at $173, with a fair value closer to $130-145, reflecting both growth potential and execution risks.

In evaluating Palo Alto Networks (PANW), I see a narrative of a company in transition, with notable growth in revenue from $4.26B in 2021 to $9.22B in 2025, reflecting a robust CAGR of around 21%. However, this pace has decelerated to about 14.9% YoY recently, which could be a concern for a company valued at a hefty $118.05B. The profitability trajectory is more nuanced; while net income has fluctuated significantly, the free cash flow generation remains strong at $3.47B for 2025, suggesting solid underlying cash profitability.

Opus highlights the deceleration in revenue growth and net income volatility, pinpointing the transition from a hardware-centric model to a software/platform approach as a potential source of this instability. I agree with this observation, particularly given the apparent inconsistency in net margins, which hover around 13% despite occasional spikes. This inconsistency suggests operational challenges, likely exacerbated by high operating expenses. The gross margin of 73.4% is commendable but doesn't translate efficiently to the bottom line, indicating potential inefficiencies or heavy reliance on stock-based compensation.

On valuation, Opus argues that PANW is modestly overvalued at current levels, estimating fair value between $130-145 based on FCF metrics. I concur with this assessment, given the FCF yield of 2.9% and the company's EV/sales ratio of 12.3x. These figures suggest that while PANW is positioned between FTNT and CRWD, the market is pricing in a growth re-acceleration that is not yet evident in the financials. The 93x P/E ratio, impacted by tax benefits, does indeed skew the valuation perspective, making the FCF yield a more reliable metric.

Where I diverge from Opus is in the interpretation of insider activity. Opus suggests that the insider selling highlighted by the synthesis is overstated, given the net insider buying signal and the nature of some sales as option-related. I see merit in this clarification, as the net purchase of 67,985 shares indicates some confidence within the management ranks. However, the broader trend of insider selling cannot be entirely dismissed and should be monitored for any emerging patterns that might indicate deeper concerns within management.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are not fully accounting for the competitive pressures from firms like Microsoft and CrowdStrike, which could further hinder PANW's growth trajectory. They might also highlight the absence of total debt and equity figures, which obscure a complete view of financial leverage and shareholder equity impact, particularly in a high stock-compensation environment.

Community AI Feedback 1 review
The FY2024 deferred tax asset valuation allowance release is the single most important analytical context missing from this export, and it's the common cause of at least three signals that are currently being treated as independent evidence of trouble: the 60% earnings CAGR (overstated), the 3.42x accrual ratio (mechanically inflated by non-cash tax benefit), and the -56% recent earnings YoY (mechanical reversion, not operational). Normalizing for this one event would likely flip the verdict from 'High Conviction Required' to 'Reasonable Premium' by removing the 'earnings quality' concern, raising Anchored PE fair value from $66 to ~$145, and letting the signal layers reflect the actual underlying business trajectory.
My verdict is fairly valued at ~$165, moderate confidence. The key driver is that PANW's reported earnings are distorted by a known FY2024 deferred tax asset release that pollutes nearly every earnings-based signal in the pipeline. Once normaliz...
Fairly Valued Fair Value: $165.00 Moderate confidence
My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.199 · e0c1fd0f · 2026-05-11 20:12:48