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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Bounce · Gem Score -11 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -29 · Value 3 · Sentiment 9 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $81.90 vs $72.61 at analysis
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Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated
PEG NYSEPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated is a diversified energy company focused on regulated electric and gas utility operations and related generation activities in the United States. Through its principal subsidiary, Public Service Electric & Gas Company, it provides electric and natural gas distribution services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across New Jersey, ensuring reliable delivery of essential energy. The company also participates in power generation primarily through nuclear and other clean energy assets, offering energy, capacity, ancillary services, and related market products. Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated plays a significant role in regional grid reliability and supports critical infrastructure, serving densely populated urban and suburban areas. Headquartered in Newark, New Jersey, it operates within the regulated utilities sector, with activities that span transmission and distribution, energy supply, and operational management of utility systems under long-term service arrangements. The company’s current focus is on safe, dependable service, system resiliency, and supporting broader environmental and regulatory standards in the U.S. energy market.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.22
Total Equity: $16.98B
Shares: 501,000,000
Total Debt: $22.55B
Cash: $132.00M
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $22.55B
Cash: $132.00M
Revenue: $12.17B
Revenue: $12.17B
Revenue: $12.17B
Total Equity: $16.98B
Tax Rate: 11.1%
Equity: $16.98B
Total Debt: $22.55B
Cash: $132.00M
Current Liabilities: $5.74B
Long-Term Debt: $21.67B
Total Debt: $22.55B
Total Equity: $16.98B
Shares: 501,000,000
Shares: 501,000,000
CapEx: -$3.27B
Shares: 501,000,000
Stock Price: $72.61
Net Income: $2.11B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:50pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.7B | $9.8B | $11.2B | $10.3B | $12.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.5B | $4.0B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $4.2B |
| Gross Profit | $6.2B | $5.8B | $8.0B | $6.9B | $8.0B |
| Operating Expenses | $7.1B | $4.4B | $4.3B | $4.5B | $5.0B |
| Operating Income | -$856.0M | $1.4B | $3.7B | $2.4B | $3.0B |
| Net Income | -$648.0M | $1.0B | $2.6B | $1.8B | $2.1B |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $-1.29 | $2.07 | $5.15 | $3.56 | $4.23 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-1.29 | $2.06 | $5.13 | $3.54 | $4.22 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:32pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $818.0M | $465.0M | $54.0M | $125.0M | $132.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $6.3B | $4.3B | $3.4B | $4.2B | $4.6B |
| Total Assets | $49.0B | $48.7B | $50.7B | $54.6B | $57.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $7.1B | $6.7B | $5.1B | $6.5B | $5.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | $15.2B | $16.5B | $17.8B | $19.0B | $21.7B |
| Total Liabilities | $34.6B | $35.0B | $35.3B | $38.5B | $40.6B |
| Total Equity | $14.4B | $13.7B | $15.5B | $16.1B | $17.0B |
| Retained Earnings | $10.6B | $10.6B | $12.0B | $12.6B | $13.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:50pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.7B | $1.5B | $3.8B | $2.1B | $3.3B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$2.7B | -$2.9B | -$3.3B | -$3.4B | -$3.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | -$983.0M | -$1.4B | $481.0M | -$1.2B | $26.0M |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | -$700.0M | -$1.6B | -$1.5B | -$2.2B |
| Dividends Paid | -$1.0B | -$1.1B | -$1.1B | -$1.2B | -$1.3B |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | -$500.0M | $0 | $0 | — |
| Net Change in Cash | — | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 4:50pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +0.8% | +14.7% | -8.4% | +18.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -7.1% | +38.0% | -13.5% | +16.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | +261.3% | +166.8% | -36.1% | +26.6% |
| Net Income Growth | +259.1% | +148.6% | -30.9% | +19.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 12:05am (4d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-10 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-09 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-09 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-10 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-10 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-09 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-07 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-07 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-07 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-07 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-08 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-09 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-08 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-08 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-08 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-09 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-08 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-07 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 16:56The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a coherent regulated-utility story that the models are overcomplicating. Trailing four quarters (Q3'25 through Q2'26) sum to ~$12.55B revenue and ~$2.01B net income — roughly flat-to-slightly-down from FY2025's $12.17B/$2.11B, but with the seasonal Q1 spike ($3.85B/$741M) confirming the winter-heavy load pattern intact. The recent_revenue_yoy of 18.3% is a Q1 comp artifact against a weak Q1'24 ($10.29B FY24 vs $12.17B FY25 was a genuine step-up), not an ongoing acceleration — Q2'26 at $2.55B is actually *down* from Q2'25's $2.81B by 9.3%. So the "decelerating" quarterly trend flag is right; the "18.3% yoy" number is misleading. Net margin at 17.4% TTM is healthy for a regulated utility and consistent with rate-base earning power, not a distortion.
The balance sheet is where I part ways with the sanguine reads. $22.55B debt against $132M cash and $16.98B equity gives D/E 1.33x, but the real issue is FCF: $26M on $3.30B OCF because capex ate $3.27B. That's the AI-capex thesis in numeric form — PSEG is spending its entire operating cash flow on rate base expansion and funding the $2.5B/year dividend (3.58% yield × $36.2B cap = ~$1.3B, actually manageable at 60% payout) with debt. This is standard utility financing but only works if rate cases keep pace. ROIC of 6.7% against a cost of debt that's now 5-6% on refi is thin — the "Weak Cash Flow Quality" flag is fair, though I'd call it "capex-heavy" rather than deteriorating. The -76.8% FCF CAGR is real but structural, not a red flag on its own for a utility in build mode.
Now the model contradictions: Market Forces calls this a "value trap" with "30-40% downside on dividend cut" — that's absurd. Payout ratio is 59.6%, the dividend has grown 12+ years, and PSEG has never cut. Meanwhile Valuation Synthesis says fair value $83 (+14.8%) while Thesis Evaluation says the market is paying a 30-40% *premium* to normal utility multiples expecting AI-capex growth. These can't both be right. My read: 17.2x P/E is *not* a premium for a Northeast regulated utility with clean-energy tilt and data-center adjacency — NEE trades at 19-20x, DUK/SO at 18-19x, so PEG at 17x is a modest discount, exactly what the Narrative layer correctly identifies. The Thesis Evaluation's "12-14x normal" anchor is stale, pre-2020 utility math.
The contrarian argument worth taking seriously isn't the value-trap frame — it's rate sensitivity plus New Jersey political risk. If 10-year yields push back to 5%+, utility multiples compress mechanically; a move from 17x to 15x on ~$4.20 forward EPS gets you to $63, ~13% downside. The BPU (NJ regulator) has been reasonable historically but bill fatigue is real when residential rates keep climbing. Insider activity is trivial (two small sales, ~10K shares combined) — noise, not signal. The steady-compounder narrative is durable precisely because it's boring, and boring utilities don't trade at $83 without an earnings catalyst; they trade at fair multiple times steady EPS. My fair value: 16-17x $4.20 = $67-71, right around current price. The synthesis's $83 target requires either multiple expansion (needs rate cut cycle) or EPS beat (needs data-center rate base to convert faster than baseline). Neither is my base case in the next 12 months.
I dissent from the synthesis's "fully_priced but +14.8% upside" framing — that's actually a buy signal disguised as caution, and I don't think the upside is there. I also dissent from Market Forces' catastrophist take. PEG is fairly valued near $72 for what it is: a competent regulated utility with modest clean-energy optionality and manageable but not exciting rate-base growth. The 3.6% yield plus 5-6% dividend growth gets you a ~9% total return if nothing changes — decent but not compelling versus 4.3% risk-free. I'd want $65 or lower to build a position, or a confirmed data-center rate-base conversion to justify chasing at $75+.
GPT Reading
At $72.61, PEG looks more like a solid utility priced about where it should be than a mispriced opportunity in either direction. The raw earnings trend is respectable in the near term: 2025 revenue rose to $12.17 billion from $10.29 billion, while net income increased to $2.11 billion from $1.77 billion. On a trailing quarterly basis, the latest four quarters sum to roughly $12.55 billion of revenue and $2.01 billion of net income, so the business is still running at about a 16% net margin despite the normal seasonal lumpiness utilities show. What stands out to me is that the business clearly recovered from the 2021 loss and even from the weaker 2023-to-2024 reset, but it has not translated that earnings recovery into meaningful free cash flow. Operating cash flow of $3.30 billion is healthy, yet capex of $3.27 billion left just $26 million of free cash flow. That is not a distress signal for a regulated utility in expansion mode, but it does mean equity holders are effectively underwriting a rate-base compounding story rather than collecting truly surplus cash today.
The balance sheet is the key limiter on upside. Debt sits at $22.55 billion against just $132 million of cash and $16.98 billion of equity, for debt-to-equity of 1.33x. That is not extraordinary for the sector, but it matters when current ratio is only 0.80 and when the whole investment case depends on continued capital deployment and allowed returns in a higher-rate world. PEG earns a 12.4% ROE and 6.7% ROIC, which are acceptable utility numbers, but not numbers that scream the stock deserves a premium multiple. A 17.2x P/E and 3.0x sales multiple for a company with 4.1% revenue CAGR, negative 9.3% earnings CAGR over the measured period, and structurally negligible free cash flow is basically the market saying “stable, investable, but not special.” I agree with that. The recent quarterly comparisons are good — June quarter revenue was down from the March seasonal peak but still up materially versus the prior-year June quarter, while net income of $334 million versus $585 million a year earlier reminds you how noisy quarter-to-quarter reported profit can be. The annual numbers matter more here, and they say PEG is a steady earner with capital intensity, not a compounding cash machine.
The biggest disconnect I see is in the more dramatic bearish framing around dividend risk and collapse in cash flows. I don’t buy the “value trap” language from this dataset. The dividend yield is 3.58% and the payout ratio is about 59.6%, which is entirely manageable on earnings. The free-cash-flow weakness is real, but for a regulated utility spending $3.27 billion of capex, FCF near zero is not the same thing as economic impairment; it often just reflects timing before rate recovery. Likewise, the claim that the stock is priced for some AI/data-center boom looks overstated. Nothing in these numbers suggests the market is paying a hyper-growth multiple. At 17x earnings and 2.1x book, this is closer to a defensive utility valuation than a speculative infrastructure rerating. If anything, the stock’s valuation already embeds the right caution around New Jersey regulation, financing needs, and the reality that higher earnings do not automatically mean higher distributable cash.
The strongest case against my neutral read is straightforward: recent operating momentum is better than I’m giving it credit for, and if 2026 is another year of double-digit EPS growth the current multiple will look cheap. Revenue in the latest reported quarter was up roughly 18% year over year, recent earnings growth is also around 19%, annual operating income improved from $2.35 billion to $2.98 billion, and net income rose by $340 million in 2025. If that improvement is being driven by a constructive rate base cycle rather than one-off timing, then the market could justify moving PEG from 17x toward 19x earnings, which alone would support a stock in the low $80s. There is also a fair argument that utility FCF is the wrong lens when capex is deliberately elevated to build future earnings power. In that framing, PEG’s thin free cash flow is a feature of growth investment, not a bug. I weigh that argument less heavily because leverage is already meaningful and because regulated returns can disappoint if politics turns against customer bill increases.
What would change my mind is pretty specific. I would turn bullish if the next annual update showed operating cash flow moving meaningfully above $3.5 billion while capex remained around the current run rate, proving the earnings growth is converting better to cash, or if net income pushed sustainably above $2.3 billion without a corresponding jump in leverage. I would also get more constructive if management demonstrated that rate-base growth is earning on schedule, because then a fair value in the low-to-mid $80s becomes credible. I would turn bearish below my current stance if free cash flow stayed near zero or negative for another year while debt rose above $24 billion, or if annual net income slipped back toward the $1.7 billion area, because then 17x earnings would be too generous for what is ultimately a bond-like equity with execution and regulatory drag.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a regulated utility deep in a reinvestment cycle, not a business falling apart. Annual revenue climbed from $10.29B in 2024 to $12.17B in 2025, with net income rising from $1.77B to $2.11B and operating margin holding near 24.5%. Operating cash flow of $3.30B is solid; free cash flow of only $26M is almost entirely explained by $3.27B of capex, the classic utility pattern of converting OCF into rate base rather than a cash-flow crisis. Trailing PE of 17.2x, PB of 2.14x, and a 3.58% dividend yield with a 60% payout sit inside normal ranges for a Northeast regulated electric name. Recent quarters show the usual seasonal lumpiness—$3.85B revenue and 19.3% net margin in the March 2026 quarter versus $2.55B and 13.1% in June—but the year-over-year trajectory is positive: recent revenue and earnings growth near 18–19%. Debt of $22.55B against $16.98B of equity and a sub-1.0 current ratio are real constraints, yet they are the balance-sheet signature of a capital-intensive regulated franchise, not evidence that the dividend is about to be cut.
What the quantitative stack gets wrong is treating near-zero FCF and a negative long-term earnings CAGR as fatal. The earnings CAGR of –9.3% is dominated by the 2021 loss and the 2023 peak of $2.56B; stripping the cycle leaves a business that has re-stabilized around $2B of annual net income. ROE of 12.4% is respectable for the sector even if ROIC of 6.7% and ROA of 3.7% look pedestrian—exactly what rate-of-return regulation is designed to produce. The market is not awarding a growth premium; 17x earnings and 3x sales are consistent with a mature earner whose story is rate-base compounding at mid-single digits, not an AI-era re-rating. Insider sales of roughly 10k shares are noise. The composite fair-value work pointing near $82–83 therefore looks directionally right: the stock at $72.61 embeds a modest discount for New Jersey regulatory friction and higher-for-longer rates, not a structural impairment.
The strongest opposing case starts with the cash-flow identity and the regulatory backdrop. Skeptics correctly note that a $1.3B annual dividend is being paid while FCF is essentially zero, so the company is either borrowing or drawing on the balance sheet to keep the streak alive; couple that with $22.5B of debt, interest-coverage risk in a still-elevated rate environment, and a current ratio of 0.80, and the balance sheet has little spare capacity if rate recovery slips. New Jersey political sensitivity to bill inflation is a live threat to the multi-year capex plan that is supposed to grow rate base fast enough to support 5–6% dividend growth. Data-center interconnection pipelines can evaporate into unbuilt projects, and the long-term FCF CAGR of –77% is an ugly headline even if it is capex-driven. Those points justify a discount to peer utilities and explain why the stock has not re-rated; they do not, however, justify a 30–40% downside scenario unless one assumes an outright dividend cut or a sudden halt to rate-base growth—neither of which the current earnings power or regulatory lag data support. I weigh the OCF coverage of the dividend and the 2025 earnings recovery more heavily than the mechanical FCF zero.
What would flip the view is straightforward: two consecutive quarters of FCF remaining near zero while payout rises above 70%, a New Jersey rate-case outcome that materially delays or haircuts recovery on the current capex wave, or trailing twelve-month net income falling back below $1.7B. Conversely, a clear step-up in allowed rate base that lifts forward EPS growth into the high single digits with FCF turning sustainably positive would push the stock toward the mid-$80s and force a more aggressive stance.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
PEG shows the classic profile of a mature regulated utility: revenue grew from 9.72B in 2021 to 12.17B in 2025, operating margin has stabilized in the 22-33% band since 2022, and net income has run 1.77B-2.56B for three straight years. Share count is essentially flat (diluted shares 504M to 501M, a -0.2% CAGR), so per-share value is not being eroded by dilution. This is a real earner with regulatory-franchise economics, which is why the OpM% swings do not signal instability. The soft spots are cash and leverage. Net debt is roughly 22.4B against only 132M of liquid cash, and short-term debt of 875M already exceeds cash on hand, so the company is structurally dependent on capital markets to roll paper. Free cash flow is highly erratic and generally poor relative to reported earnings: -983M (2021), -1.39B (2022), +481M (2023), -1.25B (2024), and just +26M (2025) against 2.11B of net income - an OCF/NI ratio of 0.61x and accruals of -2.2% of assets. Altman Z at 1.22 flags distress on the model, though that reading is partly an artifact of a capital-intensive utility balance sheet. Governance signals are neutral: two insider sales totaling roughly 756K in the last year, no buys - unremarkable for a utility. Beneish M at -2.41 shows no manipulation flag. Overall this is a durable, regulated cash engine whose reported earnings quietly outrun the cash it actually produces, and whose survival math depends on continuous refinancing rather than internal liquidity.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Composition and maturity ladder of the 22.4B debt stack and 875M short-term portion
- Capex plan vs regulated rate-base growth - is the negative FCF a growth-investment story or working-capital slippage?
- Approved allowed ROE and rate-case outcomes across NJ utility jurisdictions
- Segment split between regulated PSE&G and PSEG Power/nuclear cash flows
- Any pending equity issuance or hybrid securities in the financing plan
- Dividend coverage from operating cash flow rather than reported earnings
The e2e composite FV of $81.90 and signal-adjusted FV of $83.37 imply roughly 13-15% upside from $72.61. The methods bracket sensibly: the EPV floor at $67.57 sits just below today's price (suggesting limited downside on a no-growth basis), while the anchored P/E at $96.23 reflects a more optimistic rate-base growth path. Splitting the difference lands near the composite, which feels defensible for a regulated utility with visible earnings but weak cash conversion. After the earnings-quality haircut (score -1) and the Solid-not-Strong business grade, I would trim deserved value modestly toward $78-80 to reflect the thin FCF coverage and 22B debt refinancing exposure. That still leaves a ~7-10% gap versus the $72.61 price - real but not a fat pitch. The bull case (defensive yield, nuclear PTC tailwind, data-center demand in the Northeast) is largely known and priced in; the bear case (rate-sensitive multiple, NJ regulatory lag) is the reason the discount exists. Net: modestly cheap, not deeply cheap.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- NJ BPU rate case outcomes and allowed ROE trajectory
- Nuclear PTC realization and impact on unregulated segment earnings
- Capex plan and equity issuance guidance through 2027
- FCF coverage of dividend excluding rate-base growth spend
- Refinancing terms on near-term debt maturities
PEG is a beta-0.53 regulated utility, so the current mildly risk-on tape barely touches it either way; the macro force that actually lands on this name is the 4.69% 10y, which mechanically compresses bond-proxy utility multiples and explains the DCF discount without any story breaking. That is a real but ordinary crosswind, not a decisive press. The narrative around PEG is a low-intensity, durable steady-compounder story - no cult, no hype, no fading arc - which means there is neither a tailwind from momentum-chasers nor a headwind from a cracking story. Recent momentum has actually turned positive (18.3% recent vs 4.1% long-term), hinting that some rotation into defensives / rate-relief hope is quietly bidding the name. The Pennsylvania data-center rule is a small but genuine tailwind: it tilts cost recovery toward operators and generators in PEG's Northeast footprint, feeding the emerging 'utilities as AI power landlords' sub-narrative that has been lifting regulated names with nuclear and grid exposure. Net: modest rate headwind offset by a quietly improving narrative and constructive news flow - balanced, with a slight positive tilt.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the data-center power narrative broadens to explicitly tag PEG (analyst notes, sell-side upgrades citing AI load growth)
- 10y yield direction - a move back under 4.3% would meaningfully re-rate utility multiples
- New Jersey BPU rate case tone and any regulatory friction headlines
- Whether recent momentum sustains or fades as sector rotation shifts
Electricity demand in the US has inflected upward after twenty flat years — electrification plus data-center load — and PJM, PEG's market, is where that scarcity is priciest. That makes carbon-free nuclear baseload and delivery infrastructure structurally more valuable, and regulators generally must approve the capex to keep the lights on. The counterweight is entirely political and financial rather than demand-driven: 4.69% long rates raise the cost of financing a capex-heavy balance sheet, and New Jersey affordability politics put a ceiling on how fast bills, and therefore rate base returns, can rise. Net: demand tailwind is real and durable; the constraint has moved from customers to regulators and lenders.
When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, PEG was $72.61. We expect it to be $76.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $66.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.