Skip to main content
Homepage
Full 18-step deep-dive · ~20–30 min · a member feature.
AGING Analysis Report
Aug 7, 2026
16 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 7, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 21, 2026 · 14 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -5 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 70 · Value -66 · Sentiment 69 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $465.88 vs $1,069.80 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation

PH NYSE
Industrials · Specialty Industrial Machinery
Cleveland, OH 44124-4141, United States parker.com Updated Aug 6, 8:27pm
Price
$1,069.80
Market Cap
$134.9B
Employees
57,950
Beta
1.13
Avg Volume
602,955
Last Dividend
$7.40
CEO
Ms. Jennifer A. Parmentier

Parker-Hannifin Corporation is a global industrial manufacturing company specializing in motion and control technologies. Headquartered near Cleveland, Ohio, and founded in 1917, the company designs, manufactures, and supplies a broad portfolio of fluid power systems, electromechanical controls, and related components for industrial, mobile, and aerospace applications. Its operations are organized primarily into diversified industrial and aerospace systems segments, covering product categories such as hydraulics, pneumatics, filtration, sealing and shielding, climate control, fluid and gas handling, and process control. Parker-Hannifin serves original equipment manufacturers as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul customers across sectors including manufacturing, transportation, agriculture, construction, oil and gas, power generation, life sciences, and commercial and military aerospace. With a broad global manufacturing and distribution footprint, the company plays a central role in enabling precise motion, efficiency, and reliability in critical equipment and infrastructure worldwide.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 7, 2026 12:17am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$1,069.80
as of Aug 7, 12:24am (16d ago)
Change · Aug 7
+72.90 (+7.31%)
Day Range
$1,057.00 – $1,098.80
52-Week Range
$692.02 – $1,098.80
50-Day MA
$941.65
200-Day MA
$912.57
Volume
1,227,389.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 16d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 126,086,389.00
Float 125,698,043.00
Free Float 99.7%
High free float — 99.7% of shares trade freely, ~0.3% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:30am (16d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 8:27pm (16d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 7, 2026 12:15am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
39.45
Stock Price: $1,070
EPS (Diluted): 27.12
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
10.17
Stock Price: $1,070
Total Equity: $13.69B
Shares: 130,200,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
30.69
Market Cap: $134.89B
Total Debt: $7.51B
Cash: $467.00M
EBITDA: $4.70B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$144.3B
Market Cap: $134.89B
Total Debt: $7.51B
Cash: $467.00M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
36.9%
Gross Profit: $7.32B
Revenue: $19.85B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
21.9%
Operating Income: $4.35B
Revenue: $19.85B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
17.8%
Net Income: $3.53B
Revenue: $19.85B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
25.8%
Net Income: $3.53B
Total Equity: $13.69B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
18.0%
Operating Income: $4.35B
Tax Rate: 14.0%
Equity: $13.69B
Total Debt: $7.51B
Cash: $467.00M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.19
Current Assets: $6.95B
Current Liabilities: $5.82B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.55
Short-Term Debt: $7.00M
Long-Term Debt: $7.50B
Total Debt: $7.51B
Total Equity: $13.69B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$152.46
Revenue: $19.85B
Shares: 130,200,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$105.15
Total Equity: $13.69B
Shares: 130,200,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$25.66
Operating CF: $3.78B
CapEx: -$435.00M
Shares: 130,200,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.7%
Last Dividend: $7.40
Stock Price: $1,070
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
24.4%
Dividends Paid: -$861.00M
Net Income: $3.53B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 7, 2026 12:15am
Compares PH against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 8:27pm (16d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $14.3B $15.9B $19.1B $19.9B $19.9B
Cost of Revenue $10.4B $11.4B $12.6B $12.8B $12.5B
Gross Profit $3.9B $4.5B $6.4B $7.1B $7.3B
Operating Expenses $1.4B $1.5B $3.0B $3.1B $3.0B
Operating Income $2.5B $3.0B $3.4B $4.1B $4.3B
Net Income $1.7B $1.3B $2.1B $2.8B $3.5B
EBITDA $2.7B $3.2B $3.7B $4.4B $4.7B
EPS $13.54 $10.24 $16.23 $22.13 $27.52
EPS (Diluted) $13.35 $10.09 $16.04 $21.84 $27.12
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:38am (18d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $733.1M $535.8M $475.2M $422.0M $467.0M
Total Current Assets $5.6B $12.0B $6.8B $6.8B $7.0B
Total Assets $20.3B $25.9B $30.0B $29.3B $29.5B
Current Liabilities $3.1B $5.9B $7.7B $7.3B $5.8B
Long-Term Debt $6.6B $10.1B $10.8B $8.4B $7.5B
Total Liabilities $11.9B $17.1B $19.6B $17.2B $15.8B
Total Equity $8.4B $8.9B $10.3B $12.1B $13.7B
Retained Earnings $14.9B $15.7B $17.0B $19.1B $21.8B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 8:27pm (16d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $2.6B $2.4B $3.0B $3.4B $3.8B
Capital Expenditure -$210.0M -$230.0M -$380.7M -$400.1M -$435.0M
Free Cash Flow $2.4B $2.2B $2.6B $3.0B $3.3B
Acquisitions (net) $0 $0 -$7.1B $0 $0
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$1.2B $3.6B -$317.2M -$2.4B -$990.0M
Dividends Paid -$475.2M -$569.9M -$704.1M -$782.0M -$861.0M
Stock Buybacks -$218.8M -$460.1M -$297.3M -$332.1M -$1.8B
Net Change in Cash $47.6M $5.9B -$6.2B -$53.2M $45.0M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 8:27pm (16d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +10.6% +20.2% +4.5% -0.4%
Gross Profit Growth +14.8% +43.7% +10.9% +2.6%
Operating Income Growth +20.9% +14.4% +19.5% +6.8%
Net Income Growth -24.7% +58.3% +36.5% +24.2%
EBITDA Growth +18.4% +15.1% +18.7% +6.4%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:38am (18d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-05-08 $2.00
2026-02-06 $1.80
2025-11-07 $1.80
2025-09-02 $1.80
2025-05-09 $1.80
2025-02-07 $1.63
2024-11-08 $1.63
2024-08-28 $1.63
2024-05-09 $1.63
2024-02-08 $1.48
2023-11-10 $1.48
2023-08-25 $1.48
2023-05-11 $1.48
2023-02-09 $1.33
2022-11-10 $1.33
2022-08-26 $1.33
2022-05-12 $1.33
2022-02-10 $1.03
2021-11-10 $1.03
2021-08-26 $1.03
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for PH — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-07 00:29:02
Verdict Overvalued but the synthesis's $415 fair value is not credible — real fair value is $700-800; trim into strength, wait for margin trajectory to clarify before adding, and don't short a 18% ROIC compounder on multiple alone.

Looking at the raw numbers first: revenue growth is essentially dead — FY25 rev of $19.85B vs FY24 $19.93B is flat, and recent YoY prints are -0.4%. The earnings CAGR of 30% is real but it's a margin story, not a volume story: gross margin went 27%→37% from FY21→FY25, operating margin from 17%→22%, and NI nearly tripled ($1.32B→$3.53B) on 25% revenue growth over four years. The quarterly trajectory is more concerning than the annuals suggest — margins peaked at 20% in Dec-2024 and have compressed to 16.3-16.5% in the last two prints, even as revenue re-accelerated to $5.49B in Mar-2026 (a genuine sequential high). That's operating deleverage showing up right as the stock trades at 39x earnings. ROIC of 18% and ROE of 26% are legitimately excellent; debt/equity 0.55 and $3.34B FCF give balance sheet flexibility. This is a high-quality asset — the question is entirely price.

Where I part ways with the synthesis: a $395-415 fair value against $1,070 is a 61% haircut, which is a DCF output that has clearly failed a smell test. Parker at $415 would trade at ~15x earnings and ~10x EV/EBITDA — that's crisis pricing for a business earning 18% ROIC with aerospace tailwinds and $3.5B in annual net income. The DCF is likely using too high a discount rate, too low a terminal growth, or refusing to credit the structural margin reset. That said, the synthesis's *direction* is right even if the magnitude is absurd. A defensible fair value for PH sits at roughly 22-25x forward earnings on ~$14-15 EPS run-rate, i.e., $310-375B... no, $310-375 per share is wrong — let me redo: $3.5B NI on ~126M shares ≈ $28 EPS, so 22-25x gets you $615-700. Even generous 28x = $785. At $1,070 the stock is pricing something like 32-35x on flat-revenue earnings, which requires either aerospace-driven acceleration or continued margin expansion from an already-elevated 22% op margin. That's the bet.

The contrarian case the models underweight: aerospace is 40%+ of PH's mix post-Meggitt, and the aerospace cycle has years left — order backlogs at Boeing/Airbus stretch to 2030, and PH's aftermarket exposure is high-margin and recurring. If aerospace mix keeps climbing, blended margins could push higher still, and the 39x P/E compresses via earnings growth rather than multiple contraction. The narrative engine's "fallen-angel" framing feels wrong — PH isn't fallen, it's re-rated because the Meggitt acquisition genuinely changed the business mix. That's a fundamentals change, not pure narrative. The "moderate durability" call understates how sticky aerospace aftermarket revenue is. On the other hand: the two most recent quarters showing 16% margins vs the 20% peak is a real yellow flag that the model outputs mostly ignore — either mix is shifting unfavorably or cyclical industrial weakness is biting. That deserved more airtime than it got.

Where I land: the synthesis is directionally correct (overvalued) but its $415 anchor is not credible and shouldn't be used to size a short or trim aggressively. My honest fair value range is $700-800, implying ~25-35% downside rather than 60%. The recent margin compression (16.3-16.5% net vs 20% peak) is the key data point everyone glossed over — if that continues for two more quarters, the multiple can't hold and you get a re-rating toward $800. If Q4 shows margins recovering to 18%+ on the aerospace mix shift, the bull case reasserts and the stock can grind sideways at premium multiples. I'd agree with "overvalued" but at partial conviction — the synthesis math is broken enough that I can't table-pound, and PH is genuinely too high-quality to short. For holders: trim. For new money: wait for either a margin-recovery print (bullish confirmation) or a $850-900 pullback (better entry). Don't chase at 39x with revenue growth stalled and quarterly margins rolling over.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-07 00:29:18
Verdict Overvalued at $1,070 — elite execution is real, but the stock already prices Parker-Hannifin like a durable high-growth compounder; fairer territory is closer to $750-$850.

At $1,069, Parker-Hannifin is being valued less like a high-quality industrial and more like a scarce software-like compounder, and the financials do not support that leap. The business is undeniably excellent: annual revenue has climbed from $14.35B in 2021 to $19.85B in 2025, operating income from $2.46B to $4.35B, and free cash flow to $3.34B. Margins have structurally improved as well, with gross margin at 36.9%, operating margin 21.9%, and net margin 17.8% in FY2025. Even the quarterly run-rate is strong: the last four quarters sum to about $20.98B of revenue and $3.48B of net income, with net margins consistently in the mid-to-high teens. But that is precisely the problem for the stock, not the business. On trailing numbers, investors are paying roughly 39x earnings, 31x EV/EBITDA, 7.3x revenue, and about 40x free cash flow. For a company whose reported revenue CAGR is just 2% and whose most recent quarterly revenue was still down 0.4% year over year, that multiple stack is extreme.

What stands out to me is that almost all the equity story is margin and quality rerating, not growth. FY2025 revenue of $19.85B was actually slightly below FY2024’s $19.93B, yet net income jumped from $2.84B to $3.53B. That tells you management has executed very well operationally, but it also tells you the easier part of the value creation may already have happened. Quarterly revenue has recovered from $4.74B in December 2024 to $5.49B in March 2026, so there is some top-line reacceleration, but not at the level that usually justifies a trillion-turn valuation multiple for an industrial. The market cap of $134.9B against latest annual FCF of $3.34B implies a FCF yield around 2.5%. That can work for a business compounding revenue high-single-digits with long reinvestment runway; it is far harder to justify for a diversified motion-and-control manufacturer with modest organic growth and cyclical end markets. ROIC of 18.0% is very good, but not so extraordinary that I can ignore paying more than 10x book and more than 7x sales for a company with a 0.69% dividend yield.

The strongest bull argument is that Parker has changed category. The jump in profitability since 2021 is not cosmetic: operating margin has expanded from 17.1% to 21.9%, gross profit has risen from $3.90B to $7.32B, and annual net income has more than doubled from $1.75B in 2021 to $3.53B in 2025 despite only moderate revenue growth. Recent quarters also show earnings resilience: net income went from $698M in September 2024 to $962M in March 2025, and after a lighter June 2025 quarter at $923M, the next three quarters came in at $808M, $845M, and $904M on rising revenue. Debt is manageable at $7.51B versus $13.69B of equity, current ratio is adequate at 1.19, and cash conversion is solid with $3.78B of operating cash flow on $3.53B of net income. If you believe this is now a structurally higher-margin, less cyclical aerospace-and-industrials compounder, then premium multiples are deserved because the market is paying for durability, not just next year’s EPS.

I still weigh that evidence differently because valuation leaves almost no room for ordinary industrial disappointment. The earnings CAGR of 30.2% is flattering because it is coming off a lower base and reflects margin expansion faster than revenue growth; that is rarely repeatable indefinitely. In the latest four quarters, aggregate net income of roughly $3.48B is actually a touch below FY2025’s $3.53B, while the share price is asking investors to underwrite another leg of rerating anyway. With only $467M of cash, Parker is not sitting on excess dry powder relative to its size, and while leverage is reasonable, future returns will need to come from continued execution rather than balance-sheet magic. If revenue remains around $20B–$21B and margins simply hold rather than expand, the current valuation starts to look like a peak-multiple situation. I can accept Parker as a best-in-class industrial; I cannot accept paying a premium multiple normally reserved for faster-growing, more recurring, less cyclical businesses.

What would change my mind is specific evidence that growth is inflecting enough to carry the multiple without further heroic margin gains. If Parker can sustain quarterly revenue above $5.5B and push annual sales toward $22B while keeping net margins around 17%-18%, then earnings power would move decisively above $4B and the valuation would become less absurd. I would also revisit a more constructive stance on a major de-rating: somewhere in the $750-$850 range, the stock would still be expensive, but the quality and cash generation would begin to compensate for cyclical risk. Absent that, I think the market has fully capitalized Parker’s excellence and then some.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-07 00:30:00
Verdict Overvalued at $1070; quality industrial worth $650-750 on 22-25× earnings, 30-40% downside

Parker-Hannifin’s numbers tell a clean but unforgiving story: a high-quality industrial that has already harvested most of its easy margin gains and is now being valued as if those gains were still ahead of it. Fiscal 2025 revenue of $19.85B was essentially flat versus $19.93B the prior year, and the five-year revenue CAGR sits at roughly 2%. Yet net income climbed from $2.84B to $3.53B and free cash flow reached $3.34B on only $435M of capex, producing an 18% ROIC and 26% ROE. That is real operational excellence. The problem is price. At $1,070 the stock commands 39× earnings, 31× EV/EBITDA and 7× sales; the free-cash-flow yield is a meager 2.5%. Recent quarterly prints show revenue re-accelerating modestly ($5.49B in the March 2026 quarter, up roughly 11% year-on-year), but net margins have already rolled over from the 19–20% peaks of late 2024 into the mid-16% range. The market is paying a software multiple for a mid-cycle industrial whose top line is still barely growing and whose margin expansion story is visibly maturing.

The valuation synthesis that pins fair value near $415 is directionally correct even if the absolute number is harsh. Even granting Parker a permanent quality premium—say 22–25× forward earnings on a $3.6–3.8B net-income run-rate—implies a $650–750 range, still 30–40% below the current quote. Balance-sheet leverage is manageable (net debt roughly $7B, debt-to-equity 0.55), cash conversion is excellent, and the company sits as a sector leader with pricing power in fragmented markets. None of that justifies an EV/FCF multiple above 40× when organic growth remains low-single-digit and macro headwinds are explicitly flagged. The 900 bp gross-margin expansion that took the company from the high-20s to 37% is already in the rear-view mirror; further expansion from a 22% operating margin will be incremental, not transformative.

The strongest contrary case rests on the earnings power trajectory and the durability of the re-rating. Earnings CAGR of 30% and FCF CAGR of 13% over the recent period demonstrate that management can still extract leverage even when revenue is flat. Aerospace exposure and industrial automation tailwinds could push organic growth into the mid-single digits for several years, and a disciplined M&A machine could layer on accretion the DCF models under-weight. If the market continues to treat “profitable industrials” as a scarce asset class, the 39× multiple can persist longer than mean-reversion arithmetic suggests. I weigh this less heavily because the narrative itself concedes that story accounts for roughly 60% of the current price—the $655 gap above a ~$415 cash-flow anchor. When 60% of enterprise value is narrative and the narrative hinges on continued multiple expansion plus a benign industrial cycle, the asymmetry is poor. Margin compression already visible in the last three quarters is the first crack; a soft landing that turns into a harder industrial slowdown would expose how little growth is actually embedded in the fundamentals.

Two concrete developments would force a rethink: sustained organic revenue growth above 6–7% for four consecutive quarters while holding operating margins at or above 22%, or a large, clearly accretive acquisition that visibly lifts the medium-term earnings power above $5B. Absent either, the stock remains a high-quality compounder priced for a growth profile it does not possess.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 2.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-07 01:01:24
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 8/10
Parker-Hannifin is a genuinely great industrial compounder (+70 quality) trading at a rich price (-66 value) into a red-hot tape (+69) - admire the business, refuse the entry.
The cruxWhether you're willing to pay ~25% above the anchored-PE fair value for a 22% operating margin compounder that just raised long-term targets, or wait for the tape to give back the earnings gap.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from PH's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+70
Strong
edge √Σ 140 · risk √Σ 53 · conf 8/10

Parker-Hannifin shows a textbook mature-earner profile with genuine improvement. Revenue scaled from $14.35B (2021) to $19.85B (2025), while gross margin expanded from 27.2% to 36.9% and operating margin from 17.1% to 21.9% - roughly 480bps of operating leverage over four years. Net income nearly doubled (1.75B to 3.53B) and FCF rose from $2.37B to $3.34B. This margin trajectory (post the Meggitt-era mix shift toward Aerospace) suggests real structural improvement, not cyclical noise. Earnings integrity is high: OCF/NI at 1.4x, accruals at -2.8% of assets, Beneish M of -2.49, and Altman Z of 7.36 all point to conservatively stated earnings backed by cash. Dilution discipline is exemplary - diluted shares essentially flat at ~130M over five years, SBC only 0.8% of revenue, and buybacks running 4.3x SBC. Per-share value is being protected and compounded. The one real constraint is the balance sheet: $7.04B net debt against only $467M liquid cash (0.4% of market cap). This is not a fortress; it is a leveraged industrial that services its debt comfortably out of $3.3B of annual FCF. Altman Z of 7.36 confirms bankruptcy risk is negligible, but there is no cash cushion for opportunistic action without incremental borrowing.

Strengths 4
m78
Sustained margin expansion
Gross margin climbed 970bps (27.2% to 36.9%) and operating margin 480bps (17.1% to 21.9%) over 2021-2025, indicative of durable mix shift and pricing power.
m72
Clean earnings quality
OCF/NI 1.4x, accruals -2.8% of assets, Beneish M -2.49, Altman Z 7.36 - no mechanical red flags; earnings are cash-backed.
m68
Exemplary dilution discipline
Diluted shares fell slightly (130.8M to 130.2M) with SBC at just 0.8% of revenue and buybacks 4.3x SBC - per-share economics protected.
m62
Strong and rising FCF
FCF grew from $2.37B to $3.34B (41% cumulative), fully self-funding operations, capex, dividends, and buybacks without external capital.
Concerns 2
m48
Meaningful net debt
Net debt of $7.04B against only $467M liquid cash leaves the balance sheet as a constraint rather than a cushion; serviceable but not a fortress.
m22
Revenue flatlined in 2025
Top line ticked down slightly ($19.93B to $19.85B) - margins carried EPS growth; worth watching if industrial demand softens further.
This is a genuinely well-run industrial. The margin trajectory is the tell - going from 17% to 22% operating margin over four years while holding share count flat and generating $3B+ of FCF is what quality compounding looks like. Earnings quality checks are clean, insiders/management are clearly running the buyback-over-SBC playbook correctly. My only reservation is the leverage: with $467M of cash against $7B of net debt, this business trades survival optionality for capital efficiency. That is fine at current cash generation but leaves less room for error in a deep industrial downturn. Solidly Strong, well shy of Fortress.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Aerospace segment revenue and margin contribution post-Meggitt - is the margin expansion structural or mix-driven with limits?
  • Debt maturity schedule and weighted cost of debt given the $7B+ net debt load
  • Organic vs acquired revenue growth mix over 2021-2025
  • Order backlog and book-to-bill trends given the 2025 revenue plateau
  • Pension and OPEB obligations not captured in headline net debt
Valuation / Mispricing
-66
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 99 · conf 7/10
Price $1,070 vs quality-adjusted deserved value ~$850-950 - roughly 15-25% overvalued, not the 61% the composite suggests. attractive below $850.00

The e2e composite fair value of $395 and signal-adjusted $415 imply -61% downside from $1,070, but that math is dragged down by a DCF of $273 and EPV floor of $236 that are almost certainly too conservative for a business compounding operating margin from 17% to 22% and generating $3B+ FCF. The anchored-PE of $799 is the most credible single anchor and even that sits ~25% below the current price. Blending a quality premium onto the anchored-PE (call it $850-950 for a Strong-graded compounder with pricing power and clean earnings) still leaves the stock 10-20% rich.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality premium is real
Strong quality score (70), clean earnings, buyback discipline, and $3B+ FCF justify a premium multiple - just not this large a premium. Deserved value is meaningfully above the DCF/EPV outputs.
Rich / priced-in 4
m62
Composite FV $415 vs price $1,070
Signal-adjusted composite implies -61% downside. Even discounting the DCF ($273) and EPV ($236) as too punitive for a margin-expanding compounder, every method sits below the current price.
m55
Anchored-PE $799 is the credible floor and still 25% below price
The most business-appropriate method for a stable industrial pegs fair value near $800; the stock trades 34% above that anchor with no visible catalyst beyond continued execution.
m45
Priced for continued margin expansion
22% operating margin is already near best-in-class for diversified industrials; the price requires margins to keep grinding higher against a cyclical top in industrial and aerospace demand.
m30
Fallen-angel narrative already unwound
The re-rating from hidden-quality to widely-recognized compounder has largely played out; the easy multiple expansion is behind, not ahead.
This is a great business at a full-to-rich price. The composite fair value of $415 is not credible - the DCF and EPV methods are punishing a compounder for cyclicality it has structurally reduced. But even generously anchoring on the $799 PE-based number and layering a quality premium, I get to roughly $850-950 deserved. At $1,070 I have no margin of safety and I'd need it in the $800s before this is interesting. Fairly-to-modestly overvalued; not a short, but not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward aerospace segment guidance and backlog conversion - a key margin driver
  • Net debt trajectory and pace of deleveraging post-recent M&A
  • Whether 22% operating margin is a plateau or a waypoint - segment mix commentary
  • Organic vs price-driven growth split in latest quarter to test cyclical-top thesis
General Sentiment
+69
Strong Tailwind
tail √Σ 135 · head √Σ 50 · conf 8/10

The non-fundamental pressure on PH is decisively positive in the immediate window. The stock gapped roughly 10-11% on a Q4 beat with record $21.5B sales, 27.3% segment margins, and raised FY27 guidance plus a fresh 30% margin target by FY31. Financial media framing is uniformly bullish ('leaps past buy point,' 'broader recovery,' 'record'), which is the kind of narrative fuel that keeps momentum buyers and trend-followers engaged for weeks, not days. The fallen-angel-to-hidden-quality-compounder story now has a fresh datapoint to defend it. Against a risk-on tape (VIX 15, S&P near highs) and a 1.13 beta, this name gets amplified upside from the general bid for cyclicals and quality industrials rotating into favor. The one nagging cross-current is valuation-narrative fragility: at $1,070 vs a modeled ~$415 fair value, the story is stretched, and any macro wobble or aerospace/industrial order softening could snap the multiple. But that is a latent risk, not an active pressure - right now the tape, the print, and the narrative are all pushing the same direction. Analyst tone is almost certain to chase with target hikes into this, adding another leg.

Tailwinds 4
m88
Blowout print + raised long-term targets
Q4 EPS/rev beat by 11.8%/2.7%, record $21.5B sales, and a raised FY31 margin target of 30% - the exact fuel a fallen-angel/hidden-quality narrative needs to keep re-rating. Stock gapped 10%+.
m70
Uniformly bullish news framing
Headlines ('leaps past buy point,' 'broader recovery,' 'bull case changed') are the kind of coverage that pulls in momentum and trend capital and pressures analysts to raise targets.
m55
Risk-on tape amplifies a 1.13-beta industrial
VIX 15, S&P near highs, regime building for 4 days - a supportive backdrop for cyclicals and quality industrials rotating into favor. PH's beta means it captures more of that bid than a defensive.
m50
Aerospace-cycle narrative resurgence
'Record aerospace demand' framing plays into a broader sector tailwind story (defense/commercial aero orders) that has been a durable positive theme.
Headwinds 2
m40
Valuation-narrative fragility
Price at ~2.6x modeled fair value means the story is doing heavy lifting; any macro risk-off shift or order-book crack would hit this name harder than peers because the multiple has nothing to defend it.
m30
Higher-rate / stretched-market backdrop
10y at 4.63% and market PE 27.7 is a slow drag on all high-multiple equities; muted today by the earnings gap but a persistent background press.
Right now the pressure is decisively positive - a clean earnings beat, raised long-term margin targets, and bullish media framing hitting into a risk-on tape is a textbook tailwind stack for a 1.13-beta industrial. The narrative just got fresh ammo and momentum capital will chase. I am marking this a strong tailwind for the near-term window, with the caveat that the story is stretched vs fundamentals - so this is a tape pressure call, not a durability call. If the tape flips risk-off or aerospace orders soften, this same name is unusually exposed on the downside because the multiple has nothing to catch it.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Analyst target revisions in the next 1-2 weeks - magnitude and breadth of upgrades
  • Whether the post-gap follow-through holds or fades (a failed breakout would flip the read fast)
  • Aerospace order commentary from peers (GE, HON, RTX) confirming the 'broader recovery' story
  • Any crack in the industrial-cycle narrative - PMI, short-cycle orders
  • VIX behavior and S&P proximity to highs - a risk-off flip would hit this beta hard
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
Please log in to view trade setups
The Augustus trade-setup read is a members feature.
Log in
Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -11.7% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 7, 2026, PH was $1,069.80. We expect it to be $945.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $850.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 7, 2026.

Price when predicted$1,069.80
Our estimate for Feb 2027$945.00-11.7%
Great value below$850.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

Community AI Feedback
No community reviews yet for PH. Be the first — hit How to Contribute, have any AI review this page, and paste its take back here.
My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06