Business Description
Palantir Technologies Inc. engineers and deploys advanced software platforms primarily for the intelligence community, supporting counterterrorism investigations and operations across the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. One such product is Palantir Gotham, a sophisticated software system that enables users to uncover hidden patterns within diverse datasets, from signals intelligence to confidential informant reports. Gotham also facilitates the seamless handover between analysts and operational personnel, helping operators strategize and execute real-world responses to threats pinpointed within the platform. The company also offers Palantir Foundry, a platform that revolutionizes organizational operations by providing a central data operating system, allowing individual users to integrate and analyze their essential data in one cohesive environment. Additionally, Palantir provides Apollo, a software solution for delivering applications and updates across an enterprise, enabling clients to deploy their software in virtually any setting. Its Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) offers unified access to open-source, self-hosted, and commercial large language models (LLMs). AIP excels at transforming both structured and unstructured data into LLM-understandable objects, converting an organization's actions and processes into practical tools for human operators and LLM-driven agents alike. Founded in 2003, Palantir Technologies Inc. maintains its headquarters in Denver, Colorado.
Business History
Generated: Apr 23, 2026 9:58amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 0.69
Total Equity: $7.39B
Shares: 2,565,197,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.42B
EBITDA: $1.68B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.42B
Revenue: $4.48B
Revenue: $4.48B
Revenue: $4.48B
Total Equity: $7.39B
Tax Rate: 1.4%
Equity: $7.39B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $1.42B
Current Liabilities: $1.18B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $7.39B
Shares: 2,565,197,000
Shares: 2,565,197,000
CapEx: -$33.88M
Shares: 2,565,197,000
Stock Price: $113.50
Net Income: $1.63B
Industry Benchmarks
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
The business itself is firing on all cylinders. Revenue accelerated from $1.54B (2021) to $4.48B (2025), with the latest year showing 56% growth on top of an already large base. Gross margin expanded to 82.4% and operating margin swung from -26.7% in 2021 to +31.6% in 2025 — a ~58 point swing that demonstrates real operating leverage, not financial engineering. Net income of $1.63B and FCF of $2.10B both validate the GAAP profitability, with OCF/NI of 1.19x and accruals of -14.3% of assets indicating clean, cash-backed earnings (Beneish M -1.88, Altman Z 112 — no manipulation flags). Balance sheet is a fortress: $7.18B net cash, zero debt concerns, fully self-funding. The blemish is dilution discipline. Diluted shares grew from 1.92B to 2.57B — a 7.5% CAGR — and SBC runs 15.3% of revenue while buybacks offset only 4.4% of SBC. That means a chunk of the headline operating leverage is being paid out in stock, and per-share compounding lags the business compounding by a non-trivial margin. Insider tape is one-sided: 77 sells, zero open-market buys over twelve months ($430M sold), though much of it appears to be programmatic post-award selling by non-CEO insiders rather than panicked dumping. Net read: a high-quality, durable, cash-generative platform with one real governance concern — owners are being diluted ~7-8%/yr to fund the machine.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Customer concentration — government vs commercial split and whether top customers exceed disclosure thresholds (10-K risk factors).
- Whether SBC run-rate is moderating as a % of revenue in the latest quarter or whether 15.3% is the new normal.
- Existence and size of any 10b5-1 plans behind the insider sales — confirms programmatic vs discretionary.
- Deferred revenue and RPO trajectory to confirm the 56% revenue print is backed by booked backlog, not one-time deals.
- Segment-level margin disclosure to confirm both Gov and Commercial are individually profitable rather than one subsidizing the other.
The e2e synthesis already flags 'Priced for Perfection,' and the math backs it up. A $260B cap on a company doing roughly $3.5-4B in revenue implies a ~65-70x sales multiple and triple-digit forward earnings multiple even on adjusted figures. Deserved value, even granting the strong quality grade (68), elite margin inflection (-27% to +32% operating), fortress balance sheet, and AI optionality, lands in the $35-55 range on any disciplined DCF or peer-relative frame (high-growth software peers trade 12-20x sales; PLTR would need to compound revenue ~40% for 5+ years AND hold 35%+ margins to grow into today's price). The quality lens correctly raises deserved value, but 7.5%/yr dilution silently claws back a chunk of per-share value each year, and SBC inflates the 'adjusted' margins the bull case leans on. Earnings quality is high (good), so no haircut there, but that doesn't close a gap this wide. The bear's point - 60%+ revenue still tied to USG, slow enterprise ramp, punitive CAC - is what gets exposed if growth decelerates even modestly. Gap is not 10-20%; it's multiples. This is the textbook 'great business, terrible price.'
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Forward revenue guidance and commercial vs government mix trajectory
- Net dollar retention and commercial customer count growth
- SBC as % of revenue and diluted share count progression
- Backlog/RPO duration and concentration
- Any signal of operating margin sustainability ex-SBC
The non-fundamental pressure on PLTR is overwhelmingly negative right now. The stock just printed a 52-week low, is on pace for its worst month in five years, and broke a key technical support level - all while the broader tape is merely neutral (S&P only 3.3% off highs, VIX 18.6). That divergence is the tell: this is name-specific narrative compression, not a market washout. With beta 1.52 and 70-80% of market cap sitting on narrative premium, PLTR is exactly the profile that gets punished when the visionary-founder/AI-platform story loses intensity, and the news flow ('stocks to steer clear of', 'plummet to 52-week lows', 'worst month in 5 years') is reinforcing the downdraft.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the next earnings print delivers an enterprise/commercial acceleration that re-ignites the narrative
- Sell-side target cuts following the technical break - first downgrade would confirm tone catching up
- AI-cohort rotation: if Mag-7/AI leaders resume leadership, PLTR likely follows with high beta; if rotation continues to chips only, PLTR keeps bleeding
- VIX move above 22 or S&P down 5%+ - would convert name-specific pain into a broader risk-off cascade for this beta profile
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:03am (2d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.5B | $1.9B | $2.2B | $2.9B | $4.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $339.4M | $408.5M | $431.1M | $566.0M | $789.2M |
| Gross Profit | $1.2B | $1.5B | $1.8B | $2.3B | $3.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.3B |
| Operating Income | -$411.0M | -$161.2M | $120.0M | $310.4M | $1.4B |
| Net Income | -$520.4M | -$373.7M | $209.8M | $462.2M | $1.6B |
| EBITDA | -$470.0M | -$334.4M | $273.9M | $520.8M | $1.7B |
| EPS | $-0.27 | $-0.18 | $0.10 | $0.21 | $0.69 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.3B | $2.6B | $831.0M | $2.1B | $1.4B |
| Total Current Assets | $2.9B | $3.0B | $4.1B | $5.9B | $8.4B |
| Total Assets | $3.2B | $3.5B | $4.5B | $6.3B | $8.9B |
| Current Liabilities | $660.1M | $587.9M | $746.0M | $996.0M | $1.2B |
| Long-Term Debt | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total Liabilities | $956.4M | $818.8M | $961.5M | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Total Equity | $2.3B | $2.6B | $3.5B | $5.0B | $7.4B |
| Retained Earnings | -$5.5B | -$5.9B | -$5.6B | -$5.2B | -$3.6B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 3:03am (4d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $333.9M | $223.7M | $712.2M | $1.2B | $2.1B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$12.6M | -$40.0M | -$15.1M | -$12.6M | -$33.9M |
| Free Cash Flow | $321.2M | $183.7M | $697.1M | $1.1B | $2.1B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $66.7M | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$64.2M | -$75.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | $238.8M | $260.4M | -$1.8B | $1.3B | -$682.4M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:00am (2d ago)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$11.2B $10.6B – $12.0B
|
$16.2B $16.1B – $16.3B
|
$31.2B $29.9B – $34.9B
|
$68.8B $66.0B – $76.9B
|
| EBITDA |
$2.7B $2.5B – $2.9B
|
$3.9B $3.8B – $3.9B
|
$7.4B $7.1B – $8.3B
|
$16.4B $15.7B – $18.3B
|
| Net Income |
$4.8B $4.5B – $6.4B
|
$7.3B $6.0B – $9.5B
|
$15.5B $14.7B – $17.9B
|
$34.0B $32.2B – $39.2B
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:03am (2d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +23.6% | +16.7% | +28.8% | +56.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +24.5% | +19.8% | +28.2% | +60.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +60.8% | +174.4% | +158.7% | +355.5% |
| Net Income Growth | +28.2% | +156.1% | +120.3% | +251.6% |
| EBITDA Growth | +28.8% | +181.9% | +90.1% | +223.3% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 25, 2026 3:03am (2d ago)All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | S-Sale | 900.00 | $130.48 | $117,430 |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | S-Sale | 3,600.00 | $131.54 | $473,559 |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | S-Sale | 500.00 | $132.55 | $66,274 |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | S-Sale | 4,000.00 | $133.81 | $535,258 |
| 2026-06-15 | Moore Alexander D. | S-Sale | 7,000.00 | $134.44 | $941,083 |
| 2026-06-11 | Buckley Jeffrey | S-Sale | 1,481.00 | $128.80 | $190,753 |
| 2026-06-04 | Woersching Eric H. | A-Award | 2,118.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman | A-Award | 2,118.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Schiff Alexandra W. | A-Award | 2,118.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Moore Alexander D. | A-Award | 2,118.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman | S-Sale | 1,667.00 | $150.00 | $250,050 |
| 2026-06-01 | Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman | S-Sale | 1,598.00 | $160.00 | $255,680 |
| 2026-05-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | S-Sale | 29.00 | $132.95 | $3,856 |
| 2026-05-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | S-Sale | 74.00 | $134.20 | $9,931 |
| 2026-05-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | S-Sale | 119.00 | $135.09 | $16,076 |
| 2026-05-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | S-Sale | 964.00 | $136.08 | $131,182 |
| 2026-05-20 | Buckley Jeffrey | S-Sale | 526.00 | $136.61 | $71,859 |
| 2026-05-22 | Buckley Jeffrey | S-Sale | 830.00 | $137.41 | $114,050 |
| 2026-05-20 | Glazer David A. | S-Sale | 286.00 | $132.95 | $38,025 |
| 2026-05-20 | Glazer David A. | S-Sale | 745.00 | $134.20 | $99,981 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
The raw quarterly trajectory is what stops me first: revenue went $725M → $828M → $884M → $1.00B → $1.18B → $1.41B → $1.63B over seven quarters, with net margin climbing 19.8% → 53.3%. That is not decelerating — the "Revenue Confidence: decelerating" tag is wrong on its face. Sequential growth is 13%, 13%, 18%, 18%, 20%, 16%. Q1'26 at $1.63B annualizes to ~$6.5B run-rate, and if the sequential pace even halves, 2026 prints $6.8-7.2B against the $4.48B 2025 base — another 50%+ year. FCF of $2.10B on $4.48B revenue (47% FCF margin) with $34M capex is genuinely extraordinary; this is not a "narrative" cash flow profile, it's a Visa-like one. The synthesis verdict of "Priced for Perfection" is directionally correct on multiples but undersells how much fundamental delivery has actually happened — this is no longer a pre-profit platform, it's a hyper-profitable one growing 56% YoY.
That said, the valuation math is brutal and the bull case in the prior models hand-waves it. At $260B market cap and ~$6.5B 2026 revenue, that's 40x forward sales; on $3B forward FCF (assuming margin holds), 87x FCF. For comparison, peak-Snowflake at similar growth traded ~50x sales and got cut in half. The market-forces note flagging "alarming insider selling" understates it — the insider table shows pure sales against tiny awards on June 4 / June 15, 2026, which is the relevant tell from people who see the bookings pipeline. The narrative layer's claim that fair value is "$40-60 on steady-state cash generation" is too punitive given $2.1B actual FCF, but it correctly identifies that ~$50-70 of the $113.5 price is pure story premium. I'd peg defensible value at $65-80 on 2026 numbers using a 25-30x FCF multiple appropriate for a deceleration-risk software platform with customer concentration.
The contrarian case that nobody in the prior models presses hard enough: government revenue concentration plus the specific political moment. A large fraction of Palantir's acceleration coincides with DoD/IC AI budget expansion under a specific administration; that's not a durable secular tailwind, it's a procurement cycle. Commercial US grew fast off a tiny base — the question is whether Foundry deal sizes hold once the AIP demo-to-production conversion rate is measurable, and we don't have that data. Also worth noting: the "narrative_platform" classification with confidence 1 is sloppy — a company throwing off $2.1B FCF at 47% margins is not primarily a narrative entity anymore, even if its multiple is. The prior models keep using the narrative tag to discount the profit metrics, but those profits are real GAAP dollars, not adjusted EBITDA fiction. The lagging-indicator warning on P/E cuts both ways: if earnings keep compounding at the current trajectory, the trailing 119x P/E becomes ~50x forward fast.
Net: I agree with the synthesis verdict in direction but think both the bulls and the "fair value $40-60" bears are wrong. The business is better than skeptics admit and the stock is more expensive than bulls acknowledge. I dissent from "Priced for Perfection" only in that it implies binary downside — actually, perfection is partially being delivered, so the asymmetry is less extreme than that phrase suggests. Insider selling on June 15, 2026 is the single most important signal in the file and deserves more weight than it gets; people inside don't sell into a re-rating they believe in. I'd be a buyer in the $70s, a holder in the $80-95 range, and a trimmer above $110. At $113.5 you're paying for Q1'26 momentum to extend through 2027 with zero government-budget hiccup and zero competitive response from Microsoft/Databricks/Snowflake — possible, but not a coin flip in your favor.
GPT Critique
My analysis of Palantir Technologies Inc. highlights an impressive growth trajectory, but at a valuation that seems stretched. The raw data shows a remarkable acceleration in revenue from $725.5M in Q3 2024 to $1.63B in Q1 2026, with net income margins expanding from 19.8% to 53.3% over the same period. This paints a picture of a company that has swiftly transitioned from a pre-profit platform to an extremely profitable enterprise. The sequential revenue growth rates, consistently above 13% and peaking at 20%, support this view of robust expansion. The free cash flow of $2.10B on $4.48B in 2025 revenues equates to an outstanding 47% FCF margin, demonstrating a strong cash generation capability unusual for a firm in such a high-growth phase.
Opus's assertion that "Revenue Confidence: decelerating" is incorrect aligns with my findings; the revenue trajectory shows no signs of slowing. I agree with Opus that Palantir's current valuation math is "brutal." At a $260 billion market cap with anticipated 2026 revenues of $6.5 billion, Palantir trades at roughly 40x forward sales. This is indeed reminiscent of peak-Snowflake, which faced a steep valuation correction. However, I diverge from Opus on the impact of insider selling. While insider sales are notable, I believe they may not be as alarming if viewed as profit-taking in response to the share price surge rather than a lack of confidence in the company's future.
I also agree with Opus's skepticism about the "Priced for Perfection" narrative. Palantir's high valuation appears to be pricing in flawless execution and ongoing hypergrowth, which is risky given its significant reliance on government contracts and potential political shifts. The company's classification as a "narrative_platform" seems outdated given its profitable status and substantial cash flow, which should lend some resilience to its valuation.
A careful skeptic of both analyses might argue that the market's skepticism is warranted due to the potential for increased competition and market saturation. Although Palantir's momentum is undeniable, its heavy reliance on government contracts presents a substantial risk if political priorities shift. Additionally, the AI sector is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Microsoft and Snowflake potentially eroding Palantir's market share.