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AGING Analysis Report
Jun 10, 2026
17 days ago · 100% complete · +8 refreshed

Primoris Services Corporation

PRIM NYSE Categories PDF
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Dallas, TX 75201, United States IPO 2008 primoriscorp.com Updated Jun 10, 3:00am
Price
$103.90
Market Cap
$5.6B
Employees
15,716
Beta
1.38
Avg Volume
1,458,330
CEO
Koti Vadlamudi
Business Description

Primoris Services Corporation functions as a prominent specialized contracting firm, offering a wide array of services that include construction, fabrication, upkeep, modernization, and advanced engineering expertise throughout the United States and Canada. The company's operations are divided into three primary divisions: Utilities, Energy/Renewables, and Pipeline Services. The Utilities segment focuses on installing and maintaining both new and existing natural gas distribution networks, electrical transmission and distribution systems, and communications infrastructure. Within the Energy/Renewables segment, Primoris delivers comprehensive services such as engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC), alongside major civil projects like highway and bridge construction, demolition, site preparation, mass excavation, and flood control. This segment also provides retrofits, upgrades, repairs, and routine maintenance for industries ranging from renewable energy and energy storage to renewable fuels, petroleum refining, petrochemicals, and state departments of transportation. Finally, the Pipeline Services segment concentrates on the construction, maintenance, and integrity management of pipelines, in addition to installing compressor and pump stations and metering facilities for clients in the petroleum and petrochemical sectors, as well as gas, water, and sewer utility providers. Founded in 1960, Primoris Services Corporation is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Business History
Generated: Jun 10, 2026 3:02am
Price Overview
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:00am (17d ago)
$103.90
-18.92 (-15.40%)
Day Range
$100.10 – $119.64
52-Week Range
$71.84 – $205.50
50-Day MA
$142.06
200-Day MA
$136.96
Volume
5,267,884.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $107.00
Consensus $153.25
High $195.00
(29 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 54,254,900.00
Float 53,658,673.00
Free Float 98.9%
High free float — 98.9% of shares trade freely, ~1.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:07am (17d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:04am (17d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Jun 10, 2026 3:01am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
API
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
22.65
Stock Price: $103.90
EPS (Diluted): 5.09
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
3.99
Stock Price: $103.90
Total Equity: $1.68B
Shares: 54,800,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
13.32
Market Cap: $5.64B
Total Debt: $950.90M
Cash: $541.30M
EBITDA: $504.60M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$7.4B
Market Cap: $5.64B
Total Debt: $950.90M
Cash: $541.30M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
10.7%
Gross Profit: $813.10M
Revenue: $7.57B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
5.5%
Operating Income: $413.90M
Revenue: $7.57B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
3.6%
Net Income: $274.90M
Revenue: $7.57B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
15.2%
Net Income: $274.90M
Total Equity: $1.68B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
9.8%
Operating Income: $413.90M
Tax Rate: 28.4%
Equity: $1.68B
Total Debt: $950.90M
Cash: $541.30M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.26
Current Assets: $2.33B
Current Liabilities: $1.85B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.57
Short-Term Debt: $216.30M
Long-Term Debt: $734.60M
Total Debt: $950.90M
Total Equity: $1.68B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$138.23
Revenue: $7.57B
Shares: 54,800,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$30.68
Total Equity: $1.68B
Shares: 54,800,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$6.21
Operating CF: $470.40M
CapEx: -$129.90M
Shares: 54,800,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.3%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $103.90
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
—
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $274.90M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Jun 10, 2026 3:01am
Compares PRIM against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · three lenses
Three separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-06-10 03:08:37
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — wait for a dip 7/10
Genuinely improving E&C compounder (+29 quality) trading at a fair-not-cheap price (-31 value) — right business, wrong entry.
The cruxWhether you get a chance to buy this in the mid-$80s; the fundamental story is intact, the price just doesn't pay you to take the cyclicality.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from PRIM's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The three lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+29
Solid
edge √Σ 116 · risk √Σ 87 · conf 7/10

Primoris is executing well as a mature engineering & construction operator. Revenue more than doubled from $3.50B (2021) to $7.57B (2025), a ~21% CAGR, while operating margin expanded from 4.4% (2022 trough) to 5.5% (2025) and net income jumped from $115.7M to $274.9M. Crucially, the cash story flipped: FCF went from negative $54.1M in 2021 to $381.8M (2024) and $340.5M (2025), and OCF/NI sits at 1.48x with accruals at -2.3% of assets — earnings are real, not paper. Beneish M -2.63 and Altman Z 3.84 corroborate clean accrual behavior and adequate solvency.

Capital discipline is reasonable but not elite. Diluted share CAGR is just 0.8%, SBC is a trivial 0.3% of revenue, and buybacks offset ~50% of SBC — per-share value is protected but not actively grown via repurchase. Net debt of ~$410M against $340M annual FCF is manageable (~1.2x FCF) but means the balance sheet is a working tool, not a cushion. Insider tape shows mixed behavior: a notable open-market purchase by Vadlamudi (~$1.0M), against larger but routine-looking executive sales from Perisich and King — not a red flag, but no broad conviction signal either.

The core quality limitation is structural to the industry: 10-11% gross margins and ~5% operating margins leave little room for error, and E&C revenue is project-based with working-capital swings (visible in the lumpy FCF history). This is a well-run cyclical, not a fortress franchise.

Strengths 4
m70
Real, accelerating cash conversion
FCF inflected from -$54M (2021) to $381.8M (2024) and $340.5M (2025); OCF/NI 1.48x and accruals -2.3% of assets confirm earnings are backed by cash.
m60
Margin expansion at scale
Operating margin rose from 4.4% (2022) to 5.5% (2025) while revenue grew from $4.4B to $7.6B — operating leverage is working, net income up 137% over the span.
m55
Clean earnings-quality signals
Beneish M -2.63 (no manipulation flag), Altman Z 3.84 (safe zone), negative accruals — mechanical forensic checks come back clean.
m45
Tame dilution
Diluted shares grew from 53.2M to 54.8M (0.8% CAGR), SBC just 0.3% of revenue — per-share value is not being eroded.
Concerns 5
m55
Structurally thin margins
Gross margin sits at 10-11% and operating margin at ~5% — typical E&C economics with limited buffer against project mis-execution or input cost shocks.
m45
Net debt, not net cash
Net debt of ~$410M means the balance sheet is a constraint; with $340M FCF this is ~1.2x covered, manageable but not a cushion in a downturn.
m35
Buybacks merely offset SBC
Repurchases recover only 49.7% of SBC — capital return is dilution-mopping, not shareholder-yielding.
m30
Project-based revenue volatility risk
FCF was negative in 2021-2022 before turning sharply positive — reflects working-capital swings inherent to large project work; durability of the recent cash flow level is not yet proven across a full cycle.
m20
Insider tape net-selling in dollars
Despite one ~$1.0M Vadlamudi open-market buy, Perisich and King sold ~$5.7M combined in late May — pattern is mixed, not a conviction signal.
This is a genuinely improving business — margins expanding, cash flow inflecting from negative to $340M+, earnings quality clean by every mechanical test, dilution tame. That's a real story. But it's still a 5%-operating-margin E&C contractor with net debt and project-based cash flow volatility, so I won't call it a fortress. Management appears to be executing well; the question I can't answer from this data is whether the recent FCF level is the new normal or a working-capital tailwind that reverses. Solid — credibly so — but not elite.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Customer/end-market concentration (utility, renewables, pipeline mix) and backlog composition in 10-K
  • Fixed-price vs cost-plus contract mix — drives margin risk
  • Debt maturity schedule and covenants behind the $410M net debt position
  • Whether 2024-2025 FCF strength reflects sustainable conversion or favorable working-capital timing on specific projects
  • Acquisition history — revenue jumped from $4.4B to $7.6B in 3 years; how much was organic vs M&A (PLH Group integration?)
  • Goodwill/intangibles balance and any impairment risk from past deals
Valuation / Mispricing
-31
Fairly Valued
edge √Σ 39 · risk √Σ 70 · conf 6/10
Price $103.90 vs deserved value ~$95–$110 — within 5–10%, essentially fair with no margin of safety. attractive below $85.00

At $103.90 and a ~$5.6B market cap, Primoris is being valued as a credible specialty-infrastructure compounder rather than as a beaten-down E&C contractor. The e2e read flagged 'High Conviction Required,' which is code for: fair-value methods don't agree, and any bull case leans on continued margin expansion off a still-thin ~5% operating margin base. Earnings quality is clean (score 3, no haircut needed), and operating cash flow inflecting from negative to $340M+ supports a higher deserved value than the trailing optics suggest — but the stock has already moved to reflect that.

Deserved value for a quality-Solid (29) E&C name with net debt, project-based cash flow volatility, and ~5% operating margins sits in the high-$90s to low-$110s range on conservative assumptions — essentially where it trades. There is no visible margin of safety, but also no priced-for-perfection setup demanding heroic growth. The bull case (energy-transition + utility capex cycle, sticky relationships) is plausible but already embedded; the bear case (cyclicality, competitive bidding margin compression) is the risk you accept at this price with no discount.

This is the common, correct verdict: a good-but-not-fortress business the market already understands, trading near deserved value. I'd want a real pullback before underwriting new capital.

Cheap signals 2
m30
Clean earnings quality supports the print
Earnings-quality score of 3 means no haircut to deserved value — the $340M+ OCF inflection is real, not accrual-driven, which justifies a higher multiple than a typical contractor.
m25
Energy-transition / utility tailwind optionality
Sticky long-term utility and pipeline relationships into a multi-year capex cycle provide a real (if unquantified) upside path to deserved value if margin expansion continues past 5%.
Rich / priced-in 3
m45
Margin inflection already in the tape
Cash flow swung from negative to $340M+ and margins are expanding off a ~5% op-margin base — but the stock's move to $103.90 (~$5.6B cap) appears to capitalize that improvement at a forward multiple, not a trailing one.
m40
No margin of safety on a cyclical contractor
E&C names with project-based cash flow volatility and net debt historically deserve a discount, not a premium, to deserved value. At current price there's no buffer for a bidding-margin compression event.
m35
Fair-value methods don't converge
The e2e synthesis flagged 'High Conviction Required' — when methods disagree on a cyclical, the honest read is fair value, not deep value.
I see a real improving business at a fair price, not a mispricing. Around $104 there's no gap to exploit — the margin inflection, the cash flow swing, and the energy-transition story are all in the number. I'd need this closer to $85 before the risk/reward on a 5%-margin contractor with net debt and cyclical bidding exposure starts to look interesting. Pass at current levels; not a short, not a buy.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward backlog growth and book-to-bill — is the capex cycle still accelerating or peaking?
  • Operating margin trajectory in the next 1-2 quarters — does the 5% base move toward 6%+ or stall?
  • Net debt trajectory and any guidance on capital return vs reinvestment
  • Segment mix detail — how much of OCF inflection is recurring utility/maintenance vs one-time large project completions
General Sentiment
-40
Headwind
tail √Σ 51 · head √Σ 92 · conf 7/10

The tape is roughly neutral with VIX in the upper half of its range and the S&P just off highs, but PRIM's 1.38 beta means even modest risk-off twitches get amplified here. More importantly, the May 2026 50% earnings-day crash is still the dominant overhang on this name; that kind of guide-down event leaves a sentiment scar that takes quarters, not weeks, to heal, especially in a steady-compounder archetype where the whole story rests on predictability. The narrative intensity is minimal and the cult coefficient is low, so there is no fan base to defend the stock on weak days.

Tailwinds 2
m45
Analyst book still leaning Buy
15 Buys vs 1 Sell, target $150.78 vs $84.52, and 2 fresh upward revisions this month at $133 avg - the sell side is signaling the crash was an overshoot, which provides a sentiment floor.
m25
Durable underlying narrative
The bull story (utilities/energy-transition backlog, recurring maintenance) is rated durable, so the narrative has not been structurally broken - just dented.
Headwinds 4
m60
Post-crash sentiment scar
The 50% drop on the Q1 miss broke the steady-compounder thesis and that wound is fresh. Until a clean print resets the tape, every macro wobble gets sold harder in this name.
m45
High beta into a jittery tape
Beta 1.38 with VIX at 17.3 (above 56% of the past year) and the S&P 1.8% off highs means PRIM eats more downside than peers on any risk-off day, even though the regime is technically neutral.
m40
Rates pressure on E&C cyclicals
10y at 4.53% is a quiet drag on energy capex and construction sentiment, hitting an E&C cyclical with energy-transition exposure harder than defensives.
m35
No narrative ballast
Minimal intensity, low cult, steady-compounder archetype - there is no story bid to absorb selling. Compounders only work when they compound; one miss strips the sponsorship.
Net headwind, not catastrophic. The macro tape alone is benign, but a high-beta E&C name carrying a fresh 50% earnings-day scar and no narrative bid is structurally on the back foot - sellers have the easier path until a clean quarter resets the steady-compounder story. The Buy-heavy analyst book and durable underlying narrative keep this from being a strong headwind, but I would not expect sentiment to do any of the work here; the stock has to earn its re-rating with a print.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Next earnings print - a clean beat or reaffirmed guide would flip the read
  • Whether analyst targets hold or start drifting toward the $84 spot price (capitulation signal)
  • 10y yield direction and any energy capex commentary from majors
  • Backlog/book-to-bill disclosure at next update
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
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Three lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), and General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Deep Analysis
Last run: Jun 10, 2026 3:06:17 am

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
Not applicable for Mature Earner companies
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:04am (17d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $3.5B $4.4B $5.7B $6.4B $7.6B
Cost of Revenue $3.1B $4.0B $5.1B $5.7B $6.8B
Gross Profit $416.7M $456.9M $587.5M $703.2M $813.1M
Operating Expenses $246.5M $261.5M $334.4M $385.8M $399.2M
Operating Income $170.2M $195.3M $253.1M $317.5M $413.9M
Net Income $115.7M $133.0M $126.1M $180.9M $274.9M
EBITDA $275.9M $297.7M $362.9M $415.8M $504.6M
EPS $2.19 $2.50 $2.37 $3.37 $5.09
EPS (Diluted) — — — — —
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:00am (17d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $200.5M $248.7M $217.8M $455.8M $541.3M
Total Current Assets $1.2B $1.7B $1.9B $2.2B $2.3B
Total Assets $2.5B $3.5B $3.8B $4.2B $4.4B
Current Liabilities $759.1M $1.1B $1.3B $1.7B $1.8B
Long-Term Debt $594.2M $1.1B $885.4M $660.2M $734.6M
Total Liabilities $1.6B $2.4B $2.6B $2.8B $2.7B
Total Equity $990.1M $1.1B $1.2B $1.4B $1.7B
Retained Earnings $727.4M $847.7M $961.0M $1.1B $1.4B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:01am (17d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $79.7M $83.3M $198.6M $508.3M $470.4M
Capital Expenditure -$133.8M -$94.7M -$103.0M -$126.6M -$129.9M
Free Cash Flow -$54.1M -$11.3M $95.5M $381.8M $340.5M
Acquisitions (net) -$607.0M -$387.2M $9.3M $99.3M $0
Debt Repayment — — — — —
Dividends Paid — — — — —
Stock Buybacks -$14.7M -$6.0M $0 $0 -$11.8M
Net Change in Cash -$125.3M $53.3M -$35.4M $237.9M $79.9M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:00am (17d ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $8.6B
$8.2B – $9.0B
 $9.3B
$9.2B – $9.3B
 $10.1B
$9.7B – $10.7B
 $10.9B
$10.4B – $11.5B
EBITDA $585.5M
$561.2M – $612.6M
 $634.5M
$631.7M – $637.3M
 $689.6M
$662.4M – $730.5M
 $741.8M
$712.5M – $785.8M
Net Income $294.3M
$286.1M – $363.8M
 $328.9M
$284.2M – $395.2M
 $409.5M
$388.5M – $441.1M
 $451.0M
$427.8M – $485.8M
EPS — — — —
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:04am (17d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +26.4% +29.3% +11.4% +19.0%
Gross Profit Growth +9.7% +28.6% +19.7% +15.6%
Operating Income Growth +14.8% +29.6% +25.4% +30.4%
Net Income Growth +14.9% -5.2% +43.4% +52.0%
EBITDA Growth +7.9% +21.9% +14.6% +21.4%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:03am (17d ago)
Type codes PPurchase SSale AAward / grant MOption exercise FIn-kind (tax) CConversion GGift DReturn to issuer
All SEC Form 4 codes
Open market
P Purchase
Open-market or private purchase of shares.
S Sale
Open-market or private sale of shares.
Compensation (Rule 16b-3)
A Award / grant
Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
D Return to issuer
Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
F In-kind (tax)
Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
I Discretionary
Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
M Option exercise
Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
Derivatives
C Conversion
Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
E Short expiration
Expiration of a short derivative position.
H Long expiration
Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
O OTM exercise
Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
X ITM exercise
Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
Other exempt
G Gift
Bona fide gift of securities.
L Small acquisition
Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
W Inheritance
Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
Z Voting trust
Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
Other
J Other
Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
K Equity swap
Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
U Tender / buyout
Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.

Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.

Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-27 Vadlamudi Koti P-Purchase 7,815.00 $127.96 $1.0M
2026-05-28 Perisich John M. S-Sale 2,133.00 $125.75 $268,221
2026-05-28 Perisich John M. S-Sale 9,450.00 $126.68 $1.2M
2026-05-28 Perisich John M. S-Sale 6,017.00 $127.66 $768,121
2026-05-28 Perisich John M. S-Sale 6,147.00 $128.65 $790,789
2026-05-28 Perisich John M. S-Sale 5,855.00 $129.85 $760,286
2026-05-28 Perisich John M. S-Sale 105.00 $130.26 $13,677
2026-05-27 Vadlamudi Koti A-Award 7,815.00 $127.96 $1.0M
2026-05-26 King David Lee S-Sale 12,333.00 $118.55 $1.5M
2026-05-26 King David Lee S-Sale 3,917.00 $119.66 $468,722
2026-05-26 King David Lee S-Sale 3,750.00 $120.27 $451,006
2026-04-30 Ching Michael E. A-Award 268.00 $37,500.00 $10.1M
2026-04-30 Rodriguez Jose Ramon A-Award 268.00 $37,500.00 $10.1M
2026-04-30 MASHINSKI CARLA S A-Award 268.00 $37,500.00 $10.1M
2026-04-30 Wagner Patricia K A-Award 268.00 $37,500.00 $10.1M
2026-04-30 Schauerman John P. A-Award 268.00 $37,500.00 $10.1M
2026-04-30 MCCALLISTER TERRY D A-Award 268.00 $37,500.00 $10.1M
2026-04-30 Saluja Harpreet A-Award 268.00 $37,500.00 $10.1M
2026-04-30 King David Lee A-Award 268.00 $37,500.00 $10.1M
2026-04-15 MCCALLISTER TERRY D P-Purchase 10.14 $164.40 $1,668
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jun 10, 2026 3:00am (17d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-30 $0.08 2026-04-30 2026-06-30 2026-07-15
2026-03-31 $0.08 2026-02-17 2026-03-31 2026-04-15
2025-12-31 $0.08 2025-10-29 2025-12-31 2026-01-15
2025-09-30 $0.08 2025-07-30 2025-09-30 2025-10-15
2025-06-30 $0.08 2025-04-30 2025-06-30 2025-07-15
2025-03-31 $0.08 2025-02-24 2025-03-31 2025-04-15
2024-12-31 $0.08 2024-11-04 2024-12-31 2025-01-15
2024-09-27 $0.06 2024-08-05 2024-09-27 2024-10-11
2024-06-28 $0.06 2024-05-01 2024-06-28 2024-07-15
2024-03-27 $0.06 2024-02-21 2024-03-28 2024-04-15
2023-12-28 $0.06 2023-11-07 2023-12-29 2024-01-12
2023-09-28 $0.06 2023-08-02 2023-09-29 2023-10-13
2023-06-29 $0.06 2023-05-03 2023-06-30 2023-07-14
2023-03-30 $0.06 2023-02-22 2023-03-31 2023-04-14
2022-12-29 $0.06 2022-11-03 2022-12-30 2023-01-13
2022-09-29 $0.06 2022-08-03 2022-09-30 2022-10-14
2022-06-29 $0.06 2022-05-04 2022-06-30 2022-07-15
2022-03-30 $0.06 2022-02-24 2022-03-31 2022-04-14
2021-12-30 $0.06 2021-11-03 2021-12-31 2022-01-14
2021-09-29 $0.06 2021-08-03 2021-09-30 2021-10-15
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for PRIM — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · Delvantic - Cairn AI · generated 2026-06-10 03:06:54
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Modestly overvalued on peak earnings — fair value $75-80 on normalized margins; Q1'26's 1.1% net margin invalidates the growth narrative until proven otherwise, wait for $80 or a Q2 reacceleration.

The raw numbers tell a more uncomfortable story than the synthesis admits. Strip out the TTM-flattering metrics and look at the quarterly trajectory: Q3'25 was the peak at $2.18B revenue / 4.3% margin / $94.6M NI. Since then, two consecutive sequential declines — Q4'25 dropped to $1.86B / 2.8% margin, and Q1'26 collapsed to $1.56B / 1.1% margin / $17.4M NI. That Q1'26 print is below Q2'24's $1.56B / 3.2% — meaning revenue is flat year-over-two-years on the most recent data point, and net income is down ~65% from that comp. The "19% revenue growth in 2025" and "52% earnings YoY" cited everywhere are backward-looking annual artifacts that bake in the H1-H3 2025 surge; the run-rate has already broken. Q1 seasonality in E&C is real, but Q1'26 margin of 1.1% versus Q1'25 of 2.7% is not seasonality — that's margin compression on a smaller revenue base.

The prior models broadly acknowledge "high conviction required" but I think they're still too generous. Market Forces calls it tailwinds; the narrative layer calls it a steady-compounder anchored to fundamentals. Both underweight the fact that the most recent quarter shows the cyclical contractor thesis playing out in real time — margins reverting toward the historical 2-2.5% range the pre-flight memo explicitly warned about. The insider activity table is also being mischaracterized as "Net Insider Buying": I count one 7,815-share purchase that exactly matches a 7,815-share award the same day (i.e., almost certainly an option exercise or RSU mechanic, not open-market conviction buying), against roughly 46,000 shares of straight sales in the same window. That's net selling dressed up by the classifier. The synthesis layer giving credit for "Net Insider Buying" is wrong on the tape.

A contrarian read: PRIM trades at 22.6x TTM PE and 13.3x EV/EBITDA on peak-cycle earnings. If 2026 reverts to a 2.5% net margin on, say, $7.8B revenue (modest growth), that's ~$195M NI — putting forward PE at ~29x, not 22x. The FCF CAGR of 88.8% is a base-effect mirage (working capital release, not durable cash earning power); operating CF of $470M on $275M NI implies meaningful working-capital tailwind that won't repeat if backlog converts more slowly. The bull case requires IRA/IIJA spending to remain politically protected through a potentially hostile administration, utility capex to keep accelerating, AND margins to hold at the new 4%+ level — three independent conditions. The bear case requires only one to break, and Q1'26 suggests one already has. Balance sheet data is missing (total debt and equity blank), which is a real gap given E&C companies live and die by surety capacity and working capital lines — I can't underwrite leverage risk without it.

Where I land: I dissent modestly from the "High Conviction Required" framing, which reads as a polite hold. Given Q1'26's actual print, this is closer to a sell-the-rip than a wait-and-see. Fair value on normalized 3% net margin and a 16-18x multiple (appropriate for a cyclical contractor, not a compounder) on ~$235M normalized NI gets you to $4.0-4.3B market cap, or $73-79 per share — roughly 25-30% below current. The $205 prior high was clearly bubble pricing; the current $104 is not yet cheap, it's just less expensive. I'd want to see either Q2'26 reaccelerate to $1.9B+ with 3.5%+ margins, OR the stock at $80 with the balance sheet disclosed and debt manageable, before committing. The narrative layer is right that this is a workmanlike story, not a cult — which means there's no premium to compress further from sentiment, only from earnings disappointment, and earnings are disappointing right now.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-06-10 03:07:13
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I slightly disagree with Opus — modestly undervalued at $103.9; I'd peg fair value closer to $80-85, factoring in potential margin recovery and continued infrastructure demand.

In my independent analysis of Primoris Services Corporation, a few key points stand out from the raw data. Primoris has shown impressive revenue growth over the past five years, with a CAGR of 15.1%, reaching $7.57 billion in 2025 from $3.50 billion in 2021. This expansion seems buoyed by the secular tailwinds in infrastructure and energy transition sectors. However, recent quarterly data reveal a stark contrast to this growth narrative. The Q1 2026 revenue of $1.56 billion and net income margin of just 1.1% represent a concerning decline from previous quarters, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining past growth momentum.

I partially agree with Opus's assessment, particularly their conclusion about the recent decline in performance. Opus points out that Q1 2026's 1.1% net margin is a significant drop from previous quarters, signaling that the growth narrative might be faltering. This aligns with the data indicating a sequential revenue and margin decline since Q3 2025. Opus's skepticism about the optimistic forecasts for Primoris's sustained growth seems justified given these recent financial results. However, I diverge in my interpretation of their insider activity analysis. While Opus sees the insider transactions as net selling, the sheer volume of sales compared to purchases supports a bearish sentiment, even if the classification was technically inaccurate.

Where I disagree with Opus is their valuation range. Opus suggests a fair value of $75-80, but based on the company's historical growth and the potential for margins to stabilize at a higher level than currently observed, I believe the market has undervalued the resilience of Primoris's business model. The infrastructure sector is notoriously cyclical, yet Primoris has demonstrated the ability to capture growth opportunities effectively. If margins return to around 3% on slightly increased revenues, I would argue for a slightly higher fair value range of $80-85 per share.

A careful skeptic might argue that both Opus and I underestimate the potential for policy and economic shifts to impact Primoris's long-term prospects. With significant reliance on government infrastructure spending and energy transition projects, any changes in political priorities could quickly alter Primoris's growth trajectory and valuation assumptions. Additionally, the lack of detailed balance sheet data could mask potential leverage risks that might not be fully accounted for in either analysis.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.352 · d1100787 · 2026-06-26 11:39:30