Business Description
Headquartered in Long Beach, California, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is a prominent aerospace firm established in 2006. This company delivers a comprehensive suite of space-related services and hardware, primarily catering to the space and defense industries. Their operations encompass orbital launch capabilities, advanced spacecraft engineering and construction, production of various spacecraft components, and sophisticated on-orbit management services, including full constellation management. Rocket Lab is known for developing and producing a range of launch vehicles, from small to medium-class rockets. Key products include the highly successful Electron small orbital launch vehicle and the versatile Photon satellite platforms, both of which they design, manufacture, and market. Furthermore, the company is actively developing the larger Neutron launch vehicle, capable of carrying 8-ton payloads. Beyond manufacturing, they also conduct remote launch operations and craft specialized components and subsystems for both their Photon spacecraft family and the broader commercial spacecraft market. Their diverse clientele spans commercial enterprises, major aerospace contractors, and governmental entities.
Business History
Generated: May 13, 2026 10:48amPrice Overview
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:08am (just now)Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -0.37
Total Equity: $1.72B
Shares: 530,664,781
Total Debt: $154.11M
Cash: $828.66M
EBITDA: -$155.47M
Total Debt: $154.11M
Cash: $828.66M
Revenue: $601.80M
Shares: 530,664,781
Revenue: $601.80M
Revenue: $601.80M
Revenue: $601.80M
Total Equity: $1.72B
Tax Rate: 12.3%
Equity: $1.72B
Total Debt: $154.11M
Cash: $828.66M
Current Liabilities: $334.48M
Long-Term Debt: $154.11M
Total Debt: $154.11M
Total Equity: $1.72B
Shares: 530,664,781
Shares: 530,664,781
CapEx: -$156.29M
Shares: 530,664,781
Stock Price: $84.54
Net Income: -$198.21M
Industry Benchmarks
Deep Analysis
Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 11:32am (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $62.2M | $211.0M | $244.6M | $436.2M | $601.8M |
| Cost of Revenue | $64.1M | $192.0M | $193.2M | $320.1M | $394.6M |
| Gross Profit | -$1.9M | $19.0M | $51.4M | $116.1M | $207.2M |
| Operating Expenses | $100.2M | $154.2M | $229.3M | $306.0M | $436.0M |
| Operating Income | -$102.1M | -$135.2M | -$177.9M | -$189.8M | -$228.8M |
| Net Income | -$117.3M | -$135.9M | -$182.6M | -$190.2M | -$198.2M |
| EBITDA | -$107.9M | -$95.2M | -$144.9M | -$151.8M | -$155.5M |
| EPS | $-0.26 | $-0.29 | $-0.38 | $-0.38 | $-0.37 |
| EPS (Diluted) | — | — | — | — | — |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 11:32am (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $691.0M | $242.5M | $162.5M | $271.0M | $828.7M |
| Total Current Assets | $774.8M | $662.3M | $476.7M | $692.6M | $1.4B |
| Total Assets | $980.8M | $989.1M | $941.2M | $1.2B | $2.3B |
| Current Liabilities | $96.3M | $162.9M | $223.4M | $339.5M | $334.5M |
| Long-Term Debt | $97.3M | $100.0M | $87.6M | $389.4M | $154.1M |
| Total Liabilities | $282.4M | $315.9M | $386.7M | $801.9M | $602.6M |
| Total Equity | $698.4M | $673.2M | $554.5M | $382.5M | $1.7B |
| Retained Earnings | -$305.0M | -$441.0M | -$623.5M | -$813.7M | -$1.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 11:32am (3d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$71.8M | -$106.5M | -$98.9M | -$48.9M | -$165.5M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$25.7M | -$42.4M | -$54.7M | -$67.1M | -$156.3M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$97.5M | -$149.0M | -$153.6M | -$116.0M | -$321.8M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$66.4M | -$65.8M | -$19.0M | $12.5M | -$132.4M |
| Debt Repayment | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | -$30.4M | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | $638.1M | -$446.2M | -$79.4M | $108.9M | $558.2M |
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: Jun 27, 2026 7:08am (just now)| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue |
$1.3B $1.1B – $1.4B
|
$1.6B $1.6B – $1.6B
|
$2.1B $1.9B – $2.4B
|
$2.7B $2.4B – $2.9B
|
| EBITDA |
-$674.5M -$744.1M – -$588.8M
|
-$853.7M -$859.9M – -$847.5M
|
-$1.1B -$1.3B – -$1.0B
|
-$1.4B -$1.6B – -$1.3B
|
| Net Income |
$552,775 $-552,777 – $1.7M
|
$113.0M $50.8M – $265.1M
|
$305.1M $266.5M – $346.4M
|
$488.2M $426.4M – $554.2M
|
| EPS | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026 11:32am (3d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +239.0% | +15.9% | +78.3% | +38.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +1,103.2% | +170.7% | +125.9% | +78.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | -32.5% | -31.6% | -6.7% | -20.6% |
| Net Income Growth | -15.9% | -34.3% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | +11.7% | -52.2% | -4.7% | -2.4% |
Insider Trading (Recent)
All SEC Form 4 codes
- P Purchase
- Open-market or private purchase of shares.
- S Sale
- Open-market or private sale of shares.
- A Award / grant
- Grant or award of securities (RSUs, options, etc.) under Rule 16b-3.
- D Return to issuer
- Securities disposed back to the company under Rule 16b-3.
- F In-kind (tax)
- Shares withheld or delivered to pay the option-exercise price or tax — not an open-market sale.
- I Discretionary
- Discretionary transaction under an employee plan — Rule 16b-3(f).
- M Option exercise
- Exercise or conversion of a derivative (option/RSU) into shares — exempt.
- C Conversion
- Conversion of a derivative security into the underlying shares.
- E Short expiration
- Expiration of a short derivative position.
- H Long expiration
- Expiration or cancellation of a long derivative position with value received.
- O OTM exercise
- Exercise of an out-of-the-money derivative.
- X ITM exercise
- Exercise of an in-the-money or at-the-money derivative.
- G Gift
- Bona fide gift of securities.
- L Small acquisition
- Small acquisition under Rule 16a-6.
- W Inheritance
- Acquisition or disposition by will or the laws of descent.
- Z Voting trust
- Deposit into or withdrawal from a voting trust.
- J Other
- Other acquisition or disposition (explained in a Form 4 footnote).
- K Equity swap
- Transaction in an equity swap or similar instrument.
- U Tender / buyout
- Disposition via tender of shares in a change-of-control transaction.
Compensation-plan codes (A, D, F, M) are routine and rarely directional. Open-market P (buy) and S (sale) carry the most signal.
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Kampani Arjun | S-Sale | 88,000.00 | $107.98 | $9.5M |
| 2026-06-02 | Slusky Alexander R | S-Sale | 40,000.00 | $123.60 | $4.9M |
| 2026-06-03 | Spice Adam C. | A-Award | 275,319.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ricupati Agostino | A-Award | 27,532.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Ricupati Agostino | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0 | |
| 2026-05-29 | Spice Adam C. | G-Gift | 62,724.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Spice Adam C. | G-Gift | 62,724.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Spice Adam C. | G-Gift | 62,724.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Frank Edward H. | G-Gift | 91,373.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Frank Edward H. | G-Gift | 91,373.00 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Slusky Alexander R | S-Sale | 40,000.00 | $149.10 | $6.0M |
| 2026-05-28 | Slusky Alexander R | S-Sale | 20,000.00 | $150.00 | $3.0M |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | S-Sale | 700.00 | $143.05 | $100,138 |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | S-Sale | 2,700.00 | $144.15 | $389,204 |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | S-Sale | 1,600.00 | $145.23 | $232,369 |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | S-Sale | 4,000.00 | $146.27 | $585,084 |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | S-Sale | 9,909.00 | $147.13 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | S-Sale | 8,694.00 | $148.13 | $1.3M |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | S-Sale | 7,848.00 | $149.09 | $1.2M |
| 2026-05-28 | Klein Frank | S-Sale | 1,409.00 | $149.99 | $211,335 |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent read first: revenue trajectory is genuinely impressive — $106M → $144M → $155M → $180M → $200M over five quarters is a clean +89% acceleration with sequential growth each quarter (38% YoY in Q1 2026 vs Q2 2024 base). Gross margin annualized hit 34.4% in 2025 vs 23.7% in 2024 and -3% in 2021 — that's real operating leverage, not a head-fake. But the absolute losses are not improving meaningfully: -$45M in Q1 2026 vs -$41.6M in Q2 2024, and full-year 2025 net loss of -$198M was actually *worse* than 2024's -$190M. FCF of -$321.8M in 2025 against $828.7M cash means ~2.5 years of runway at current burn before another raise — and capex is accelerating ($156M) ahead of Neutron. The 61x P/S and $70.8B market cap on $602M trailing revenue is the entire story: at SpaceX-like 8x mature sales, you need $8.8B revenue to justify spot. That's a 14x from here.
On the prior models: the synthesis "Priced for Perfection" verdict is directionally right but underspecified. A 118x P/S framing in the pre-flight note is actually stale — at current TTM ~$680M run-rate revenue, it's closer to 100x, and on forward 2026 consensus (likely $750-850M) it's 85-95x. Still absurd by any aerospace comp (LMT trades ~1.8x sales, even mature high-growth defense names cap at 5-8x), but the magnitude matters. The "Market Forces: AI Analysis Unavailable" is a real gap — no competitive dynamics check on whether Stoke, Relativity, Blue Origin's New Glenn, or SpaceX Starship pricing pressure has been weighed. The momentum module flagging "decelerating" quarterly trend is wrong on its face: $122→$144→$155→$180→$200 is accelerating in dollar terms, decelerating slightly in percentage (sequential growth was 17.9%, 7.3%, 15.9%, 11.5%) — call it lumpy, not decelerating. Insider activity flag is fair: six sales clustered on 2026-03-02 totaling ~84k shares, with only one award offsetting, at prices near all-time highs. Not screaming exit, but it's not insider buying either.
Contrarian case worth taking seriously: Rocket Lab is one of maybe three Western entities with credible orbital launch + end-to-end space systems integration (Electron has 50+ launches, Space Systems is $300M+ run rate). If Neutron hits its 2026 debut window and captures even 15-20% of the medium-lift market SpaceX currently monopolizes outside Falcon 9, the revenue ramp from 2027-2030 could be violent — $2B by 2028 isn't crazy. National security launch diversification mandates (Space Force wants non-SpaceX options) provide a structural tailwind no model here quantifies. The bear case ignores that defense/space platform companies routinely trade on option value, not DCF, until they don't. That said, at 100x sales the option is priced like a near-certainty, not optionality.
I dissent partially from the synthesis: "Priced for Perfection" is the right label but the implicit recommendation (avoid/short) is too clean. This is a binary 2026 story. Neutron's first launch — currently targeted mid-to-late 2026 — is the entire variance pump. Success and the stock can defend $120+; a 6+ month slip or RUD and you're looking at $60-70 fast (50% drawdown to ~50x sales on lowered out-year expectations is generous). Fair value on probability-weighted scenarios: 35% Neutron success on time × $180 + 40% delay/partial × $85 + 25% major setback × $45 ≈ $108. So $122 is ~13% above weighted fair value — overvalued but not absurdly so given the platform optionality. I'd be a seller above $140, a starter buyer below $85, and on the sidelines in between. The 2.5-year cash runway plus likely dilutive raise in 2026-2027 is the underdiscussed overhang — expect a $500M-$1B equity raise within 18 months that the bulls aren't modeling.
GPT Critique
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. presents an intriguing case as a rapidly scaling aerospace company with a compelling growth narrative. A key highlight is its impressive revenue trajectory, with a near 10x growth over four years from $62.2M in 2021 to $601.8M in 2025. This trajectory is accompanied by significant improvement in gross margins from a negative -3% in 2021 to a positive 34.3% in 2025. However, the company remains deeply unprofitable, with net income losses worsening from -$182.6M in 2023 to -$198.2M in 2025, highlighting a persistent challenge in managing operational costs relative to revenue growth. The balance sheet shows a substantial cash reserve of $828.7M, providing some runway, but with a free cash flow of -$321.8M in 2025, this reserve could deplete quickly without significant operational improvements or additional capital raises.
I concur with Opus on the impressive revenue growth and operating leverage Rocket Lab has demonstrated. Opus correctly identifies that despite revenue acceleration, the absolute losses have not shown meaningful improvement. The steady cash burn points to a likely need for a capital raise within the next couple of years, given the current financial trajectory. Where I diverge slightly from Opus is on the fair value assessment. While Opus suggests a fair value of ~$108 based on probability-weighted Neutron outcomes, I would argue that the risk factors related to execution and market competition may warrant a more conservative valuation, potentially below $108, especially considering the market's high expectations embedded in the current price.
Opus's assertion that the stock is "priced for perfection" aligns with my interpretation of the data, as the current 61x price-to-sales ratio is indeed reflective of a market expecting flawless execution and substantial future growth. I agree with Opus that this valuation leaves little room for error, especially with the upcoming Neutron launch being a critical milestone. However, I would emphasize more strongly the competitive landscape and potential pricing pressures from peers like SpaceX and Blue Origin, which could impact Rocket Lab's ability to capture anticipated market share.
A careful skeptic might argue that both my views and Opus's could underestimate the potential of Rocket Lab to innovate and capture significant market share in a rapidly evolving industry. They might also point out that the aerospace sector often rewards long-term visionary plays, suggesting that the current valuation could be justified if Rocket Lab continues to exceed technological milestones and secure lucrative contracts.