For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Republic Services, Inc. (RSG) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -8 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 73 · Value -75 · Sentiment 34 (timing only, not weighted)
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Republic Services, Inc.
RSG NYSERepublic Services, Inc. is a leading environmental services company that provides non-hazardous solid waste collection, recycling, and disposal solutions across North America. The company serves a broad customer base including residential households, commercial businesses, industrial clients, and governmental entities, offering scheduled waste pickup, dumpster and container services, and specialized environmental solutions. Republic Services operates through an extensive network of collection operations, transfer stations, recycling facilities, and landfills, enabling vertically integrated management of the waste stream from point of collection through processing and final disposal. It also offers recycling and resource recovery services that help customers manage paper, metals, plastics, and other recyclable materials. In addition, the company provides environmental services such as remediation, field services, and sustainable waste handling for more complex industrial needs. Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Republic Services, Inc. plays a significant role in supporting essential sanitation infrastructure and environmental compliance for communities and businesses throughout its markets.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.85
Total Equity: $11.97B
Shares: 312,168,000
Total Debt: $13.71B
Cash: $76.00M
EBITDA: $5.12B
Total Debt: $13.71B
Cash: $76.00M
Revenue: $19.03B
Revenue: $19.03B
Revenue: $19.03B
Total Equity: $11.97B
Tax Rate: 17.5%
Equity: $11.97B
Total Debt: $13.71B
Cash: $76.00M
Current Liabilities: $3.93B
Long-Term Debt: $13.71B
Total Debt: $13.71B
Total Equity: $11.97B
Shares: 312,168,000
Shares: 312,168,000
CapEx: -$1.89B
Shares: 312,168,000
Stock Price: $216.31
Net Income: $2.14B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 3:09pm (12d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.3B | $15.6B | $17.3B | $18.4B | $19.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $6.7B | $8.2B | $8.9B | $9.4B | $9.6B |
| Gross Profit | $6.6B | $7.4B | $8.3B | $9.1B | $9.4B |
| Operating Expenses | $4.5B | $5.0B | $5.6B | $5.9B | $6.1B |
| Operating Income | $2.1B | $2.4B | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.3B |
| Net Income | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.1B |
| EBITDA | $3.3B | $3.7B | $4.3B | $4.9B | $5.1B |
| EPS | $4.05 | $4.70 | $5.47 | $6.50 | $6.86 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.04 | $4.69 | $5.47 | $6.49 | $6.85 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:34pm (12d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $29.0M | $143.4M | $140.0M | $74.0M | $76.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $1.7B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.4B | $2.5B |
| Total Assets | $25.0B | $29.1B | $31.4B | $32.4B | $34.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.4B | $3.4B | $4.2B | $4.1B | $3.9B |
| Long-Term Debt | $9.7B | $11.9B | $12.8B | $12.8B | $13.7B |
| Total Liabilities | $16.0B | $19.4B | $20.9B | $21.0B | $22.4B |
| Total Equity | $9.0B | $9.7B | $10.5B | $11.4B | $12.0B |
| Retained Earnings | $6.5B | $7.4B | $8.4B | $9.8B | $11.2B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 3:09pm (12d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.3B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.3B | -$1.5B | -$1.6B | -$1.9B | -$1.9B |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.5B | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$1.2B | -$3.0B | -$2.1B | -$753.0M | -$1.4B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$4.6B | -$14.3B | -$38.2B | -$24.2B | -$37.0B |
| Dividends Paid | -$552.6M | -$592.9M | -$638.1M | -$687.0M | -$738.0M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$252.2M | -$203.5M | -$261.8M | -$482.0M | -$870.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$8.6M | $108.7M | $13.2M | -$25.0M | $46.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 3:09pm (12d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +17.4% | +10.4% | +6.6% | +3.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +13.0% | +12.0% | +8.8% | +3.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | +15.2% | +16.2% | +15.0% | +3.3% |
| Net Income Growth | +15.3% | +16.4% | +18.0% | +4.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +14.8% | +14.4% | +13.8% | +5.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:34pm (12d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-02 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-02 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-02 | $0.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025-04-02 | $0.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025-01-02 | $0.58 | — | — | — |
| 2024-10-02 | $0.58 | — | — | — |
| 2024-07-02 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-01 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-29 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-29 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-31 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-30 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-31 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-30 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-11Labor and fleet are the dominant cost lines; AI-driven routing, dynamic dispatch, predictive maintenance and telematics-based safety scoring attack cost per stop and insurance/claims expense — the exact levers behind the 15.6%→17.4% operating margin march since 2021.
Small-container commercial pricing is Republic's profit engine and rests partly on customer inattention; AI procurement agents and asset-light brokers that continuously compare hauling bids and flag auto-renewal escalators could compress churn friction and price realization.
Whether AI-sourced operating savings stay with Republic or get bid away in competitive municipal RFPs and renewals — observable in core price versus cost-of-operations spread and SG&A-plus-cost-of-operations as a percent of revenue.
Permitted landfill airspace, transfer-station geography, and route density in specific metros — assets constrained by zoning, permitting and decades of capital, none of which cheap software creates.
AI Lens thesis
Republic sells a physical, legally supervised service: the underlying need (waste must physically leave the premises) and the monetized unit (per pickup, per container, per ton) are untouched by machine intelligence, so AI cannot substitute for the company. It reaches the P&L on the cost side — routing, dispatch, driver retention and safety, predictive maintenance, and AI-vision robotic sortation that lifts recovered-commodity yield and cuts MRF labor at recycling facilities — and on the demand side indirectly, via datacenter and grid construction generating C&D and special-waste volumes plus firmer value for landfill-gas RNG. The genuine AI risks are second-order but specific: agentic procurement eroding SMB pricing opacity, and off-the-shelf optimization software narrowing the operational gap between Republic and small independent haulers where landfill access is not the binding constraint. Net: insulated core, real but bounded margin tailwind, small pricing-transparency tax.
What the market may be underestimating
Upside AI-era infrastructure buildout is a waste-volume event: datacenter and grid construction produce C&D and industrial special-waste streams, while power scarcity raises the realized value of landfill-gas-to-RNG projects Republic already owns.
Downside Cheap optimization software is the great leveler for subscale haulers — routing efficiency and back-office scale, historically Republic's advantage in dense markets, become purchasable, sharpening price competition on collection where it does not control the disposal asset.
Outcome range spread 31
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue peaked at $4.88B in Q2 2025 and has since stepped down to $4.83B, $4.73B, and $4.70B in the most recent print. That's a three-quarter sequential decline in a business the bulls describe as inflation-protected and recurring. YoY the March 2026 quarter of $4.70B is only up 2.4% vs Q1 2025's $4.59B — decelerating from the 4.9% five-year revenue CAGR and well below the 6-7% the multiple demands. Net income margins have held at 11.2-11.5% but haven't expanded; the Q3 2024 print of 12.1% margin remains the high-water mark. Earnings CAGR of 11.2% is real but was front-loaded (2021→2023 was the leverage story on post-COVID price catch-up); the recent 4.7% YoY earnings growth is the honest run-rate. FCF of $2.41B against a $65.7B market cap is a 3.7% FCF yield — thin for a business growing NI mid-single digits.
Balance sheet is where I'd push harder than the models did. $13.71B debt against $76M cash and a 0.64 current ratio is aggressive for a "defensive" name — this is a leveraged equity stub on a toll-road asset. D/E of 1.15 and ROIC of 10.6% vs ROE of 17.9% tells you the equity return is meaningfully levered. In a higher-for-longer rate regime, refinancing walls compress FCF; the "Macro Headwinds" tag is doing real work here that the narrative layer underweights. EV/EBITDA of 15.5x and EV/revenue of 4.17x on a business compounding revenue at ~3-5% is where I have trouble. Waste Management (WM) historically traded 18-22x P/E through cycles; RSG's 31.6x is genuinely at the upper decile.
I largely agree with the synthesis verdict directionally but think the $116-125 fair value is too punitive. A more defensible frame: normalize to 22-24x forward earnings on ~$7.20 EPS run-rate ($2.14B NI / ~297M shares grown 5%) gets you $160-175. That's still 20-25% downside, not 46%. The DCF likely uses too high a discount rate for a business with this cash flow predictability, and steady-state 6-7% growth is defensible given price/cost passthrough in muni contracts. Where I fully agree with synthesis and disagree with the market narrative layer: the "quality compounder" premium is consensus, crowded, and — critically — the sequential revenue deceleration from $4.88B to $4.70B over three quarters is exactly the kind of print that unwinds multiple expansion. Decelerating revenue confidence is called out but underweighted in the final synthesis.
The contrarian case is worth stating: RSG has genuine pricing power (5-6% annual price on the residential book is real), landfill scarcity is a structural moat regulators keep reinforcing, and if rates cut 100-150bps the leveraged equity re-rates further. The insider data is useless — 10 tiny A-Awards ranging 1-22 shares are RSU vesting, not signal. But the anomalies matter: the data shows a 2026-03-31 quarter and 2026-07-15 insider dates, meaning we're either looking at a forward-dated file or the price/fundamentals mismatch has already been running for a year without correction, which itself is information (narratives persist longer than DCFs predict). My read: overvalued but not egregiously so, and the timing of a re-rating depends on whether Q2/Q3 2026 confirms the sequential deceleration or reverses it. At $216 with a 3.7% FCF yield, decelerating top line, and 31.6x earnings, the risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside; I'd want $170 or a growth reacceleration print to get involved. Trim if held, don't short (carry is punitive on a 1.2% divvy name with buybacks), don't initiate.
GPT Reading
Republic Services is exactly the kind of stock that gets over-owned in a late-cycle, lower-volatility market: an undeniably good business priced like a great growth business. The operating record is strong. Revenue has risen from $13.32B in 2021 to $19.03B in 2025, a 9%+ annualized climb, while net income went from $1.29B to $2.14B, and operating income expanded from $2.08B to $3.30B. Margins have also improved over that span, with operating margin now 17.4% and net margin 11.2%. That is not accidental; it reflects real pricing power, route density, landfill ownership, and disciplined cost control. Cash conversion is also real: $4.30B of operating cash flow and $2.41B of free cash flow after a hefty $1.89B of capex. If I were judging only business quality, I would call this one of the best industrial service franchises in the market.
But the current numbers also say the easy part of the earnings re-rating is behind it. Annual revenue growth slowed to 3.3% most recently, and the quarterly sequence is soft rather than accelerating: after peaking at $4.88B in 2025-06, revenue ran $4.83B, $4.73B, then $4.70B in the latest quarter. Some of that is seasonality, but the bigger point is that this is now a low-single-digit top-line grower with modest margin progression, not a business compounding at 15%+. Net income in the latest quarter was $525.3M versus $495.0M a year earlier, only 6% growth off an already premium base. Paying 31.6x earnings, 15.5x EBITDA, and 3.55x sales for that profile is aggressive. On 2025 free cash flow of $2.41B against a $65.7B market cap, the FCF yield is roughly 3.7%; that is a thin cash return for a capital-intensive business carrying $13.71B of debt and just $76M of cash.
That leverage matters because this is not a software company with negligible reinvestment needs. The business requires continual capex to maintain and expand the asset base, and the balance sheet is being tolerated because the operating model is stable, not because it is light. Debt-to-equity of 1.15 and a current ratio of 0.64 are manageable in context, but they are not the profile I want to pay a “bond proxy plus growth premium” multiple for when rates and financing costs remain a live issue. ROIC at 10.6% is good, yet not so exceptional that it justifies any price. At $216, the market is valuing Republic as if its moat guarantees years of uninterrupted pricing-led earnings growth and no multiple compression. I think that is too generous for a company whose recent revenue trend is decelerating and whose earnings growth, while positive, no longer obviously outruns the valuation.
The best case against my view is straightforward: waste is one of the cleanest oligopolistic local-market businesses in public equities, and Republic has shown that it can steadily turn inflation into pricing, tuck in acquisitions, and widen margins over time. From 2021 to 2025, net income increased 66%, far ahead of revenue growth, which suggests the business still has operating leverage left. A 17.9% ROE and consistent 11%-plus net margin make clear that this is no ordinary industrial. Investors may rationally pay 30x earnings for resilience, scarcity, and durability when many cheaper cyclicals deserve to be cheap. If pricing remains strong and environmental solutions or recycling adjacencies add even a bit of incremental growth, today’s multiple could persist far longer than valuation purists expect. That is the strongest rebuttal, and it is serious.
What would change my mind is not another quarter of “solid execution”; the company already executes well. I would need to see evidence that the growth runway is materially better than it looks in the current print set: revenue reaccelerating back toward 6%-8% sustainably, operating margin moving decisively above 18%, and free cash flow rising enough to push the FCF yield toward a more defensible level relative to the share price. Alternatively, a substantial pullback would do the work. On current fundamentals, I can justify a quality premium, but not this one. A stock in the $165-$180 range would look much more defensible; above $215, investors are paying in advance for stability they have already received.
Grok Reading
Republic Services is a high-quality mature earner whose numbers tell a clear story of decelerating growth wrapped in a premium multiple that the fundamentals no longer support. Annual revenue climbed from $13.32B in 2021 to $19.03B in 2025, but the path is flattening hard: the five-year revenue CAGR is only 4.9%, recent year-over-year revenue growth has slowed to 3.3%, and the last four reported quarters show sequential revenue drifting from $4.88B down to $4.70B. Net income of $2.14B in 2025 delivered an 11.2% net margin and $2.41B of free cash flow after $1.89B of capex—respectable cash conversion—but earnings growth has also cooled to a 4.7% recent year-over-year clip even as the trailing P/E sits at 31.6x. Operating margin of 17.4% and gross margin near 49% confirm pricing discipline and scale, yet ROIC of 10.6% is merely adequate for a capital-intensive hauler carrying $13.71B of debt against $76M of cash and a current ratio of 0.64. At $216 with a $65.7B enterprise, the market is paying roughly 15.5x EV/EBITDA and 3.5x sales for mid-single-digit top-line growth and low-double-digit earnings compounding; that is a quality premium stretched into overvaluation territory.
The quantitative models flaging ~$117–125 fair value (implying roughly 45% downside) are directionally correct even if the precise DCF anchor can be debated. What stands out is the mismatch between the narrative the market is buying—an inflation-resistant, ESG-tinged compounder with durable pricing power—and the actual operating trajectory of a business whose organic growth is now tracking near GDP with limited evidence of accelerating volume or structural margin expansion. Debt-to-equity of 1.15x and meaningful interest-rate sensitivity further constrain the upside case in a higher-for-longer rate regime. Insider activity is noise (token award shares), and the 1.2% dividend yield with a 35% payout ratio is a nice-to-have, not a valuation floor.
The strongest counterargument is that waste is genuinely defensive, contracts are sticky, and Republic has consistently converted earnings into FCF at a high rate while compounding NI at an 11% CAGR over the longer window. A bull would note that 31x earnings is the price of admission for scarce, regulated, essential-service compounders, that ROE of 17.9% demonstrates decent capital returns, and that any re-acceleration in volume or incremental margin from route density and recycling tech could justify holding the multiple. They would also argue the $125 fair-value print underweights terminal multiple expansion that quality industrials have sustained for years. I weigh that less heavily because recent quarterly revenue is decelerating, not re-accelerating, ROIC remains only modestly above cost of capital, and paying nearly double a fundamentals-anchored value requires flawless execution plus continued multiple support—conditions the data do not currently underwrite.
I would reverse to neutral or constructive if upcoming quarters show organic revenue re-accelerating sustainably above 6–7%, operating margins pushing through 19%, or a material deleveraging that lifts ROIC while FCF stays above $2.5B; a multiple compression toward 22–24x on still-growing earnings would also reset the risk/reward.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Republic Services shows the textbook profile of a high-quality mature earner. Revenue grew from 13.32B in 2021 to 19.03B in 2025 (roughly 9.3% CAGR), operating margin expanded from 15.6% to 17.4%, net income rose from 1.29B to 2.14B, and FCF climbed from 1.47B to 2.41B - all while diluted share count fell from 319.4M to 312.2M (-0.6% CAGR). Buybacks outweigh SBC by 1158%, and SBC is a trivial 0.2% of revenue, so per-share value is being concentrated rather than eroded. Insider tape shows only routine A-award grants (all sub-100 share tickets), with no open-market P/S activity to read into.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity ladder and average coupon vs current rates
- Landfill closure/post-closure liabilities and environmental remediation reserves
- Organic vs acquired revenue growth split (roll-up dependence)
- Pricing power vs volume trends in core collection business
- Capex mix between maintenance and growth (sustainability of FCF)
Every valuation input points the same direction: DCF at $137, EPV floor at $101, composite fair value $125, signal-adjusted $117 - all materially below the $216 tape. Even generously anchoring on the DCF (the highest of the methods), the stock trades at roughly a 58% premium to deserved value; against the composite it is priced ~73% above. Earnings quality is high (score 3), so there is no haircut to soften the deserved number - the gap is genuine, not an artifact of low-quality earnings. What is priced in: durable mid-single-digit pricing power, continued margin expansion off an already 49% gross margin, sustained buybacks funded through a 13.6B net-debt stack, and multiple stability at a premium industrials multiple. That is a lot of good news already capitalized. The Company-Quality lens correctly flags this as a strong business, and that justifies trading above EPV and probably above a plain-vanilla DCF - but 'high quality' does not stretch to a 58-73% premium without heroic terminal assumptions. Margin of safety here is negative. This is the classic 'wonderful business, full-to-rich price' setup - not a short, but not a buy on valuation.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward pricing/volume guidance and whether core price is decelerating from mid-single digits
- Sustainability of gross margin near 49% vs mix from acquisitions
- Capital allocation: buyback pace vs debt paydown given 13.6B net debt
- Any one-time gains inflating recent EBITDA that would lower deserved value further
The non-fundamental pressure on RSG is modestly positive. The active narrative - steady-compounder, essential-service, inflation-resistant - is durable and just got fresh oxygen from a Q2 revenue beat and a raised 2026 outlook, with headlines emphasizing pricing power and cash flow. That is exactly the story this cohort trades on, and it is being reinforced, not challenged. Analyst tone in the news flow is constructive-but-cautious (premium valuation flagged), which is a healthy backdrop rather than a de-rating catalyst. The tape is risk-on at +47 with VIX 15.5, but with a 0.4 beta RSG barely participates in beta chases; more importantly, the July jobs miss (-23k) explicitly bid defensives like RSG - news flow shows RSG named among stocks trading up on the soft print. That is a stock-specific tailwind: any whiff of growth-scare rotation flows straight into low-beta essential-service names. Offsets are real but ordinary: 10y at 4.65% and market PE 26 are a mild valuation ceiling for a premium-multiple defensive, and the bear framing (85% premium to DCF) is a latent headwind if the narrative ever cracks. For now the story is intact, intensity is moderate, and news flow is one-sided positive - net tailwind, not a strong one because the cult coefficient is low and beta is muted, so moves will be measured.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether analyst target revisions post-Q2 lean positive (would firm the tailwind) or hold flat citing valuation
- Any sector rotation out of defensives if risk-on regime strengthens and VIX compresses further
- 10y yield direction - a break above 4.75% would sharpen the valuation-ceiling headwind
- Volume trends in coming prints; the bear case hinges on soft volumes eroding the pricing-power story
Republic sells a physical, legally supervised service: the underlying need (waste must physically leave the premises) and the monetized unit (per pickup, per container, per ton) are untouched by machine intelligence, so AI cannot substitute for the company. It reaches the P&L on the cost side — routing, dispatch, driver retention and safety, predictive maintenance, and AI-vision robotic sortation that lifts recovered-commodity yield and cuts MRF labor at recycling facilities — and on the demand side indirectly, via datacenter and grid construction generating C&D and special-waste volumes plus firmer value for landfill-gas RNG. The genuine AI risks are second-order but specific: agentic procurement eroding SMB pricing opacity, and off-the-shelf optimization software narrowing the operational gap between Republic and small independent haulers where landfill access is not the binding constraint. Net: insulated core, real but bounded margin tailwind, small pricing-transparency tax.
None surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- Volume trend ex-price
- Residential contract retention rates
- Industrial and special-waste tonnage
- New landfill permits granted nationally
- Third-party disposal pricing
- Internalization rate
- Landfill airspace utilization
- Diversion mandates in key states
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
Prediction unavailable. valuation-synthesis has no result for RSG — the prediction needs its fair-value anchors.