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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -20 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -23 · Value -17 · Sentiment -11 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $85.99 vs $28.40 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Super Micro Computer Inc
SMCI NASDAQSuper Micro Computer Inc. develops and manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architectures, serving markets worldwide including the United States, Asia, and Europe. The company offers a diverse portfolio of products such as liquid and air-cooled AI servers optimized for training and inferencing with integrated GPUs or PCIe architectures; innovative blade and multi-node systems including SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, WIO, and rackmount servers; embedded systems for 5G, IoT, and edge computing; MicroCloud server systems; high-end workstations; and networking devices. It also provides modular subsystems like server boards, chassis, power supplies, and accessories, alongside remote management solutions such as the Server Management suite, including Supermicro Server Manager, Power Management software, Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Super Micro Computer Inc. supports enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing through direct sales, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and OEM partnerships. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in San Jose, California, it plays a vital role in delivering scalable IT infrastructure for demanding computational workloads.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 1.68
Total Equity: $6.30B
Shares: 628,402,000
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $5.17B
EBITDA: $1.29B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $5.17B
Revenue: $21.97B
Revenue: $21.97B
Revenue: $21.97B
Total Equity: $6.30B
Tax Rate: 12.9%
Equity: $6.30B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $5.17B
Current Liabilities: $2.34B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $6.30B
Shares: 628,402,000
Shares: 628,402,000
CapEx: -$127.21M
Shares: 628,402,000
Stock Price: $28.40
Net Income: $1.05B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:49pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.6B | $5.2B | $7.1B | $15.0B | $22.0B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.0B | $4.4B | $5.8B | $12.9B | $19.5B |
| Gross Profit | $534.5M | $800.0M | $1.3B | $2.1B | $2.4B |
| Operating Expenses | $410.6M | $464.8M | $521.9M | $850.6M | $1.2B |
| Operating Income | $123.9M | $335.2M | $761.1M | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| Net Income | $111.9M | $285.2M | $640.0M | $1.2B | $1.0B |
| EBITDA | $152.1M | $367.6M | $796.0M | $1.2B | $1.3B |
| EPS | $2.19 | $5.54 | $12.09 | $2.07 | $1.77 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.09 | $5.32 | $11.43 | $1.92 | $1.68 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:32pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $232.3M | $267.4M | $440.5M | $1.7B | $5.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $1.9B | $2.8B | $3.2B | $8.9B | $12.3B |
| Total Assets | $2.2B | $3.2B | $3.7B | $9.8B | $14.0B |
| Current Liabilities | $968.9M | $1.5B | $1.4B | $2.3B | $2.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | $34.7M | $147.6M | $120.2M | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $1.1B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $4.4B | $7.7B |
| Total Equity | $1.1B | $1.4B | $2.0B | $5.4B | $6.3B |
| Retained Earnings | $657.8M | $942.9M | $1.4B | $2.6B | $3.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:49pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $123.0M | -$440.8M | $663.6M | -$2.5B | $1.7B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$58.0M | -$45.2M | -$36.8M | -$124.3M | -$127.2M |
| Free Cash Flow | $64.9M | -$486.0M | $626.8M | -$2.6B | $1.5B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $0 | -$2.2M | $-296,000 | $0 |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $66.4M | $512.6M | -$300.5M | $189.0M | -$380.7M |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $21.1M | $35.1M | $172.4M | $1.2B | $3.5B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:49pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +46.1% | +37.1% | +110.4% | +46.6% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +49.7% | +60.4% | +60.7% | +17.9% |
| Operating Income Growth | +170.4% | +127.1% | +59.1% | +3.5% |
| Net Income Growth | +154.9% | +124.4% | +80.1% | -9.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +141.7% | +116.5% | +55.9% | +4.3% |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:04Recovery pays +1232%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 85%. Ratio 14.5:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($28.40) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +110% | 9.2% | $378.17 | +1232% |
| Base — stabilizes | +74% | 8.0% | $154.12 | +443% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +37% | 6.8% | $54.21 | +91% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | -15% | 1.9% | $4.27 | -85% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a jarring story that the models are dancing around. Trailing two quarters — Dec-2025 at $12.68B and Mar-2026 at $10.24B — imply an annualized run-rate north of $45B, roughly 2x FY2025's $21.97B. Yet net margin has collapsed from 7.1% in Sep-2024 to 3.2-4.7% recently, and Q3-2026 net income of $483M on $10.24B revenue is *below* Sep-2024's $424M on $5.94B. This is the textbook signature of a commoditizing assembler winning volume by giving away price — exactly the Market Forces read. Gross margin of 11.1% is thin-margin distribution economics, not differentiated hardware. FY25 net income of $1.05B actually *fell* from FY24's $1.15B despite revenue growing 47%. That's negative operating leverage on a 75% revenue CAGR, which is the opposite of what "high-growth profitable" should look like.
The synthesis DCF fair value of $66.72 — implying 135% upside — is doing heavy lifting on assumptions that the quarterly data actively contradicts. If you normalize on Q3-2026's 4.7% net margin against a $40B forward revenue estimate, you get ~$1.9B net income, or ~$3/share, putting the stock at ~9.5x forward earnings. That's not screaming cheap for a business with 11% gross margins, no debt moat, ODM competition from Wiwynn/Quanta, and hyperscaler in-housing risk. The pb of 2.83 on $6.3B equity is defensible but hardly a bargain given ROE compressed to 16.6% from prior mid-20s. The Market Forces model and the Narrative Economics fragile-durability read are, in my view, closer to correct than the synthesis fair-value composite — which appears to be extrapolating peak-cycle margins onto a business that has visibly de-rated its unit economics.
A careful contrarian would push back thus: revenue is genuinely accelerating (Dec quarter alone was 58% of all of FY25), Blackwell/GB200 rack-scale systems carry higher ASPs and could restore margins in FY26-27, the balance sheet is fortress ($5.17B cash, zero debt, current ratio 5.2), FCF was $1.53B in FY25, and at 0.53x EV/revenue and 9x EV/EBITDA you're paying commodity-distributor multiples for a company still growing 46% YoY. The accounting overhang from the Ernst & Young resignation and delayed 10-K is *known* and priced; a clean audit cycle plus one quarter of margin stabilization at 5%+ could produce a violent re-rate. That's a real bull case — but it requires believing management, and the insider activity shown (all option exercises and in-kind tax withholdings, zero open-market buys) provides no confirming signal. Charles Liang has not stepped up to buy his own stock at $28.
The data is thinnest exactly where it matters most: I don't have visibility into the debt line (shown as "—" but SMCI issued convertibles in 2024, so the zero D/E metric is stale or wrong), inventory levels (critical for a hardware assembler with lengthening AI cycle times), or customer concentration disclosures. The "insider activity: none" secondary signal is misleading — there are ten transactions listed, all neutral-to-negative in signal terms. I dissent from the synthesis fair_value verdict and side with Market Forces: this looks overvalued relative to normalized earnings power, not undervalued. My fair value sits closer to $32-38 (12-14x ~$2.50 normalized EPS on 4-5% sustainable margins), meaning the stock is roughly *fairly* valued at $28, not 135% below intrinsic. The upside case requires margin recovery I have no evidence for; the downside case requires only continued margin compression, which is the actual trend in the data. I'd want to see two consecutive quarters of gross margin above 12% and a clean 10-K before touching this, and even then only as a trade, not an investment.
GPT Reading
What jumps out is not just that Super Micro is growing fast, but that the market is valuing that growth like it’s either fleeting or untrustworthy. Revenue went from $7.12B in FY2023 to $14.99B in FY2024 to $21.97B in FY2025, and the quarterly run-rate has since exploded again: the last four quarters sum to about $33.7B of revenue. At a $18.37B market cap, that is roughly 0.55x trailing annualized sales for a profitable business with net cash of $5.17B and no stated debt. Even if I haircut the business as a low-moat hardware integrator rather than a software-style AI winner, that multiple is exceptionally low against a company that is still posting positive earnings and positive free cash flow. The market is not merely discounting cyclicality; it is pricing in either a major collapse in margins, a break in demand, or lingering distrust in the reported numbers.
The income statement tells a more specific story: demand is very real, but economics have deteriorated sharply. FY2024 net income was $1.15B on $14.99B of revenue, a 7.7% net margin; FY2025 delivered much higher revenue of $21.97B but lower net income of $1.05B, only 4.8%. The latest two giant quarters make the point even harder. December 2025 revenue hit $12.68B yet net income was just $400.6M, a 3.2% margin; March 2026 revenue was $10.24B with $483.4M of net income, 4.7%. So this is not a case where the stock is being ignored while fundamentals uniformly improve. The company is clearly buying growth with lower profitability, whether because of mix, expedited costs, pricing pressure, customer concentration, or simply the economics of being a fast-turn AI server builder in a brutally competitive supply chain. Still, even using the last four quarters’ earnings of roughly $1.25B, the stock is around 14-15x earnings, and enterprise value is lower still once you credit the cash. For a company growing revenue 40%+ year over year, that is not expensive unless margins are headed materially lower from here.
The balance sheet and cash generation are the reason I lean bullish despite the margin damage. The latest annual free cash flow of $1.53B and operating cash flow of $1.66B are substantial relative to an $18.37B equity value, and capex was only $127M, so this is not a business requiring huge reinvestment to stand still. Equity of $6.30B against $5.17B of cash and no debt gives unusual financial resilience for a hardware name. That matters because if the bear case were simply “low-margin hardware company,” I would still not expect a sub-1x sales multiple with this balance sheet and current scale. The market narrative appears to be assigning a severe credibility discount on top of a deserved margin discount. My read is that the valuation is already more than compensating for the structural weakness of the model. This is not an “AI premium” stock at $28.4; it is being priced like a troubled cyclical assembler despite operating at a revenue scale above $30B annualized.
The best case against my view is straightforward and serious: the margin trend may be telling you that peak economics are already over, and low multiples can be value traps when the “E” is inflated by a short supply/demand window. Gross margin for FY2025 was only 11.1%, operating margin 5.7%, and net margin 4.8%; the quarterly margins have mostly worsened since the 7.1% net margin posted in September 2024. If hyperscalers and enterprise AI buyers are increasingly squeezing vendors, a company like SMCI can see revenue soar while earning power stagnates or falls. The fact that FY2025 revenue rose 47% while net income declined from $1.15B to $1.05B is exactly the kind of negative operating leverage that deserves multiple compression. Add governance and accounting distrust, and the market may be right to refuse a normal multiple entirely. If reported free cash flow quality is weaker than it appears, then the cash balance is less comforting than it looks, and a 0.8x sales multiple may not be cheap for what is effectively an at-risk distributor-integrator with unstable margins.
What would change my mind is not another big revenue print by itself; SMCI has already proven it can book enormous sales. I would turn bearish if the next couple of quarters show revenue staying above roughly $9B-$10B but net margin slipping toward 2% or below, because that would imply the business is scaling volume without preserving enough economics to matter. I would also change my view if cash starts reversing hard despite reported profits, or if any audit, regulatory, or customer-related event undermines confidence in the financial statements or the durability of key accounts. On the other hand, if SMCI can sustain even 4%-5% net margins on a $35B-$40B revenue run-rate, the current price is too low by a wide margin; that would support earnings power in the $1.4B-$2.0B range and make $28.4 look like distress pricing rather than fair value.
Grok Reading
The numbers that matter here are the ones the market is ignoring. Super Micro just printed two consecutive quarters north of $10B—$12.68B then $10.24B—against a prior run-rate of roughly $5B. Trailing twelve-month revenue is approximately $33.7B with TTM net income of about $1.25B, putting the stock at roughly 15x trailing earnings and 0.53x EV/sales with $5.17B of cash and zero debt on the balance sheet. That is not the multiple of a business whose AI server franchise is collapsing. Revenue CAGR of 75.6% over the multi-year period and a still-solid 46.6% recent year-over-year print confirm the top line is real in scale even if the quality of the underlying accounting remains contested. Free cash flow of $1.53B against $1.05B of FY2025 net income further undercuts the “earnings are fiction” narrative for the last clean annual period; the cash showed up.
What the market is correctly pricing, and what keeps this from being a table-pounder, is the margin trajectory and the governance discount. Net margins have compressed from 7.1% in the September 2024 quarter to a 3–4.7% band more recently, and gross margin sits at a thin 11.1%. This is an assembler business with limited pricing power once the initial AI land-grab fades and Dell, HPE, and the Taiwanese ODMs lean in. Earnings CAGR of only 28% against 75% revenue growth, and a recent earnings year-over-year of −9%, show that operating leverage is not materializing the way the bull case requires. The PE of 16.9 and EV/EBITDA of 9.0 look cheap only if you believe mid-single-digit operating margins can stabilize; if they grind toward 3%, the earnings power that supports even today’s $18.4B market cap erodes quickly.
I am more constructive than the Market Forces “commoditizing assembler with no moat” framing and more skeptical of the Valuation Synthesis $66–73 composite. The composite assumes normalized margins and clean accounting that the market is explicitly refusing to underwrite; calling the stock “fair value” at $28 while printing a 135% upside number is an internal contradiction that reveals model instability rather than insight. The fallen-angel narrative is real and fragile—Hindenburg, restatements, CFO and auditor exits—but the 57% discount to any reasonable DCF is larger than a pure credibility haircut justifies when the company is converting over a billion dollars of cash and sitting on a fortress balance sheet. At 0.53x sales, the market is pricing in either a permanent loss of hyperscaler wallet share or a material restatement that wipes out a third of reported earnings power. Neither is the base case from the revenue run-rate alone.
The strongest opposing case is straightforward: if the accounting is compromised, every multiple is meaningless and the cash balance itself becomes suspect. Margin compression could continue as hyperscalers vertically integrate or dual-source more aggressively, and the dilution history means per-share value creation has lagged revenue growth. A smart bear would also note that ROIC of 0.96 looks like a data artifact and that “poor cash flow quality” flags in the secondary signals are not noise. I weigh these seriously—the conviction ceiling is permanently lower until audits clear—but I do not treat them as binary. Zero-debt hardware businesses with $5B cash and $30B+ revenue run-rates do not trade at half-turn EV/sales unless the market has already decided the franchise is terminal. That decision looks premature.
What flips me: a clean audit opinion and restated financials that leave FY2025 and subsequent quarters largely intact would push fair value toward the $50–60 range and raise conviction sharply. Conversely, another restatement that cuts cumulative NI by more than 20%, net margins sustained below 3% for two consecutive quarters, or explicit loss of a top-two hyperscaler customer would move the stock to fairly valued or worse at $28 and force a stance reversal.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
SMCI is riding an enormous top-line wave — revenue compounded from $3.56B (2021) to $21.97B (2025), a roughly 6x run in four years, with $5.17B net cash and $1.53B of FCF in the latest year. Survival math is not the issue: net-cash positive, Altman Z at 4.49, self-funding. On raw scale and liquidity, this is a strong business. But the internals are deteriorating precisely as growth accelerates. Gross margin has compressed from 18.0% (2023) to 13.8% (2024) to 11.1% (2025); operating margin fell from 10.7% to 5.7% over the same span. Net income actually declined YoY ($1.15B to $1.05B) despite revenue rising 47%, indicating negative operating leverage as the business scales into hyperscaler AI-server orders where SMCI is a price-taker on components (largely NVIDIA GPUs). Earnings quality and per-share stewardship are the real problems. Diluted shares exploded from 56M (2023) to 602M (2024) to 628M (2025) - a >10x jump, which reflects a 10-for-1 split plus real dilution and equity issuance. Accruals are 10.8% of assets, OCF/NI reads ~0x in the module, 2024 FCF was -$2.61B (huge working-capital build), and the company has a well-documented late-filer/auditor-resignation history (Ernst and Young resigned in 2024) plus a prior SEC settlement (2020). That combination - high accruals, lumpy cash conversion, governance scars - is exactly the profile where reported earnings deserve heavy scrutiny.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Split-adjusted share count trajectory and any convertible notes outstanding (2024 equity/convert issuance terms)
- Customer concentration - what % of FY25 revenue came from the top 1-3 hyperscalers
- Inventory and receivables composition versus revenue growth (working capital swing that drove -$2.61B FY24 FCF)
- Status of restated financials, auditor (post-EY) opinions, and any outstanding SEC or internal-review items
- Gross-margin bridge: how much of the compression is GPU pass-through mix versus pricing pressure
- Related-party transactions with Ablecom/Compuware disclosed in the latest 10-K
The e2e composite FV of $73.16 (signal-adjusted $66.72, implying 135% upside) is almost certainly a runaway output - it leans on an anchored-PE of $88.50 that assumes normalized, high-quality earnings SMCI has not demonstrated. The EPV floor of $19.46 is the more honest anchor for a thin-margin assembler with gross margins collapsing from 18% to 11% and net income falling while revenue grew 47%. Splitting the difference and haircutting for weak earnings quality, auditor resignation history, and heavy dilution, I peg deserved value in the $32-$40 range - a mid-teens forward multiple on genuinely earned, dilution-adjusted EPS with AI-tailwind growth optionality.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether current-quarter gross margin stabilizes above 11% or continues compressing
- Status and findings of any remaining SEC inquiry and new auditor sign-off on restated financials
- Share count trajectory and any further equity issuance plans
- Hyperscaler customer concentration and pricing power in latest 10-Q
- Free cash flow conversion vs reported net income
SMCI sits at a genuine tug-of-war. The tape is mildly constructive (regime score +22, VIX 16, S&P near highs) and Amazon's print just reignited the AI-capex narrative that SMCI is most levered to. Recent flow confirms it: the July 22 blowout order print (+19.8%) and the May earnings beat (+24.5%) show the market will pay up quickly when the AI-server story is intact. With beta 1.94, any risk-on impulse gets amplified into this name. That is the tailwind side. Against that sits a fallen-angel narrative flagged as fragile with low cult support - meaning there is no loyal holder base to defend it on bad days. The bear story (accounting restatements, SEC overhang, trust in the numbers) is exactly the kind of overhang that keeps sentiment capped even as fundamentals improve, and the June dilution reaction (-28% on the $7B raise) shows how quickly the tape punishes any governance/capital-structure wobble. Analyst tone is not shown as strongly rerating either way. Net: the AI narrative pushes up, the trust narrative pushes down, and recent momentum is decelerating (46.6% recent vs 75.6% long-term). Non-fundamental pressure roughly cancels, with a slight bias to headwind because the durability of the good story is fragile while the bad story is structural.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Any update or resolution on the SEC investigation / auditor sign-off - the single biggest sentiment unlock or break
- Next earnings: whether the $60B order commentary holds and margin trajectory continues
- Whether hyperscaler capex commentary from AMZN/MSFT/META prints stays hot into next quarter
- Any further equity or convertible issuance signals - dilution is the fastest way to break the tape here
- Analyst target revisions post the Q4 order print - are sell-side desks re-engaging or still sidelined
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.