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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Atlassian Corporation Class A (TEAM) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -21 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 22 · Value -63 · Sentiment 54 (timing only, not weighted)
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
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Atlassian Corporation Class A
TEAM NASDAQAtlassian Corporation Class A is a software company that provides collaboration and productivity tools for organizations of all sizes. Its products include project planning and tracking software, team communication platforms, and IT service management solutions that help teams coordinate work, manage requests, and share information across departments. The company serves a broad range of industries, including technology, financial services, healthcare, education, and public sector organizations, with offerings designed for both technical and non-technical users. Atlassian also supports cloud-based software delivery and marketplace integrations, giving customers access to add-on applications and workflow extensions. Founded in 2002 and headquartered in Sydney, Atlassian plays a significant role in enterprise software by helping businesses organize work, improve collaboration, and streamline internal operations.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): -0.21
Total Equity: $1.06B
Shares: 260,163,000
Total Debt: $989.56M
Cash: $1.24B
EBITDA: $151.02M
Total Debt: $989.56M
Cash: $1.24B
Revenue: $6.57B
Shares: 260,163,000
Revenue: $6.57B
Revenue: $6.57B
Revenue: $6.57B
Total Equity: $1.06B
Tax Rate: 344.1%
Equity: $1.06B
Total Debt: $989.56M
Cash: $1.24B
Current Liabilities: $3.57B
Long-Term Debt: $989.56M
Total Debt: $989.56M
Total Equity: $1.06B
Shares: 260,163,000
Shares: 260,163,000
CapEx: -$34.06M
Shares: 260,163,000
Stock Price: $171.81
Net Income: -$53.83M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:33pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.8B | $3.5B | $4.4B | $5.2B | $6.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $452.9M | $633.8M | $803.5M | $894.9M | $996.8M |
| Gross Profit | $2.3B | $2.9B | $3.6B | $4.3B | $5.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $2.3B | $3.2B | $3.7B | $4.5B | $5.6B |
| Operating Income | $70.1M | -$345.2M | -$117.1M | -$130.4M | $10.4M |
| Net Income | -$519.5M | -$486.8M | -$300.5M | -$256.7M | -$53.8M |
| EBITDA | $121.8M | -$284.3M | -$38.3M | -$38.0M | $151.0M |
| EPS | $-2.05 | $-1.90 | $-1.16 | $-0.98 | $-0.21 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-2.05 | $-1.90 | $-1.16 | $-0.98 | $-0.21 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:16pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $1.4B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.5B | $1.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $1.9B | $2.7B | $3.1B | $3.9B | $2.8B |
| Total Assets | $3.3B | $4.1B | $5.2B | $6.0B | $6.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $1.6B | $2.0B | $2.6B | $3.2B | $3.6B |
| Long-Term Debt | $999.4M | $962.1M | $985.9M | $987.7M | $989.6M |
| Total Liabilities | $3.0B | $3.5B | $4.2B | $4.7B | $5.0B |
| Total Equity | $327.4M | $654.7M | $1.0B | $1.3B | $1.1B |
| Retained Earnings | -$1.9B | -$2.5B | -$3.2B | -$4.2B | -$6.1B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:33pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $821.0M | $868.1M | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.4B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$70.6M | -$25.7M | -$32.6M | -$44.9M | -$34.1M |
| Free Cash Flow | $750.5M | $842.5M | $1.4B | $1.4B | $1.3B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$19.4M | -$5.8M | -$847.8M | -$14.2M | -$1.2B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $1.0B | $0 | -$1.0B | $0 | $0 |
| Dividends Paid | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | $0 | -$150.0M | -$395.3M | -$779.4M | -$1.8B |
| Net Change in Cash | $449.0M | $716.6M | $74.2M | $335.6M | -$1.3B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 3:33pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +26.1% | +23.3% | +19.7% | +26.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +23.4% | +22.6% | +21.5% | +29.0% |
| Operating Income Growth | -592.6% | +66.1% | -11.4% | +107.9% |
| Net Income Growth | +6.3% | +38.3% | +14.6% | +79.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | -333.4% | +86.5% | +0.8% | +497.3% |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 15:39The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a more coherent story than the models suggest. Atlassian just printed FY26 revenue of $6.57B, up 25.9% from $5.22B, with the Jun-26 quarter at $1.77B (up 28% YoY vs the $1.38B Jun-25 quarter). More importantly, FY26 operating income flipped positive ($10.4M vs -$130.4M) and FCF hit $1.32B on a 20.1% FCF margin — that is not a "pre-profit" company, and the classification confidence of 0.51 tells you the rule engine knows it. The GAAP net loss of $54M on $6.57B revenue is almost entirely stock-based comp; the cash economics are those of a scaled compounder. At $43.5B market cap and ~$1.32B FCF, this is trading at ~33x FCF with 26% top-line growth — not obviously insane for durable SaaS.
Where I break with the synthesis and market-forces layers: the "manufacturing unsustainable growth through aggressive accounting" claim in Market Forces is not supported by anything in this file — FCF grew from $1.35B OCF on healthy conversion, and revenue acceleration from 22.8% CAGR to 26% YoY recent is the opposite of decelerating fundamentals (the "decelerating" tag in Revenue Confidence looks like a sequential-quarter artifact, not a YoY trend). The Thesis Evaluation's -8 score leans heavily on "SMB saturation" and "Microsoft bundling," both of which have been the bear case for five straight years while Atlassian compounded revenue from $2.8B to $6.6B — a 2.35x in four years. The Pre-Flight layer has this right and the synthesis layer is over-indexing on multiple compression risk it can't quantify.
The contrarian case that actually has teeth is not Microsoft — it's the multiple. EV/Sales at 6.8x with 26% growth and 20% FCF margins is roughly Rule-of-46, which is genuinely healthy, but the P/B of 42 and thin $1.06B equity base reflect years of SBC-funded losses; if growth decelerates to 15% (plausible as the datacenter migration tailwind exhausts in FY27-28), fair multiple compresses toward 5x sales = ~$140. Insider activity is small-ticket routine selling (13 shares, 3 shares — these are RSU tax withholdings, not conviction signals; the Neutral tag is correct). The debt/equity of 0.93 and current ratio of 0.78 look ugly but are typical of deferred-revenue-heavy SaaS and not a real liquidity concern with $1.24B cash and $1.32B annual FCF. The real fragility: one Q — Mar-26 — showed revenue at $1.79B then Jun-26 dipped to $1.77B sequentially. That is worth watching but is likely seasonality on annual renewals.
I dissent from the synthesis's "High Conviction Required" framing (which reads as a soft bearish hedge) and from Market Forces' "unsustainable growth" claim. At $172 with 26% growth, 20% FCF margins, and a legitimate workflow moat that has survived a decade of "Microsoft will kill them" predictions, this is fairly valued to modestly undervalued — not a screaming buy, but the bear thesis requires growth to break below 18% within 4 quarters, which the trajectory doesn't support. Fair value band $165-$200 based on 30-35x FY27E FCF of ~$1.55B (assuming 18% FCF growth). The narrative-economics "40-50% is story" claim is overstated when the company is generating $1.3B of real cash.
GPT Reading
Atlassian’s numbers read much better than the “pre-profit” label suggests, but they also do not support an easy premium-growth multiple. Revenue has scaled from $4.36B in FY24 to $5.22B in FY25 and $6.57B in FY26, a two-year CAGR a bit above 22%, while quarterly revenue climbed from $1.19B in Sep-2024 to $1.77B in Jun-2026. That is real expansion, and the latest reported quarter was up about 28% year over year against $1.38B a year earlier. Gross margin remains exceptional at 84.8%, and the more important fact is cash generation: $1.35B of operating cash flow and $1.32B of free cash flow on $6.57B of revenue is roughly a 20% FCF margin. For a software company with only $34.1M of capex, that says the core product engine is very healthy even if GAAP earnings are still noisy.
What stands out, though, is the mismatch between that healthy cash machine and the still-anaemic income statement. FY26 operating income was just $10.4M, an operating margin of 0.2%, and net income was still negative at -$53.8M. The quarterly trend is improving, but not cleanly: net margins moved from -10.4% in Sep-2024 to -3.0%, -5.2%, -1.7%, -3.6%, -2.7%, then -5.5%, before finally printing +7.9% in Jun-2026. That last quarter is encouraging, but one profitable quarter does not prove durable operating leverage. At the current $43.5B market cap, investors are paying about 6.8x sales and roughly 33x trailing free cash flow. That is not absurd for a sticky enterprise software asset, but it is a full price for a company whose GAAP profitability is only just poking above zero and whose annual FCF has not compounded with revenue; the provided data even shows FCF CAGR slightly negative. If revenue settles from the mid-20s into the mid-teens before margins structurally inflect, today’s multiple is too generous.
The balance sheet is fine, not pristine. Cash of $1.24B exceeds debt of $989.6M, so there is no financing stress here, but equity is only $1.06B, which is why the 42x book multiple is basically meaningless rather than impressive. The current ratio of 0.78 also reminds you this is an efficient subscription software model, not a fortress built on current assets. Insider activity is all sells, albeit tiny-ticket in share count and not enough on its own to signal much. The bigger issue is that the market narrative still gives Atlassian credit as a compounding workflow monopoly, while the actual reported figures show a business in transition from excellent gross margin and cash conversion to as-yet-unproven GAAP earnings power. I do not see a broken business here; I see a good one already valued for a cleaner margin profile than it has actually delivered.
The best argument against this caution is straightforward: software earnings are often a poor lens at this stage, and Atlassian’s cash flow may be the more relevant economic truth. A 20% FCF margin today on an 85% gross-margin base can become much higher if expense growth moderates, and the annual operating line already improved from -$117.1M in FY24 to -$130.4M in FY25 and then to +$10.4M in FY26 while revenue added over $2.2B across the period. If the Jun-2026 quarter’s 7.9% net margin is the start of a genuine turn rather than a blip, then a 6.8x sales multiple is not demanding for a category leader still growing 25%+. In that framing, the stock is not expensive but simply early to the margin unlock. I weigh that less heavily because the quarter-to-quarter profit path has been too erratic, and because paying over 30x FCF for a company with only a one-quarter proof point on GAAP profitability leaves little room for a growth wobble.
What would change my mind is evidence that profitability is becoming repeatable, not just eventual. If the next 2-3 quarters sustain revenue above roughly $1.85B-$1.95B while holding GAAP net margin positive and lifting operating margin into a durable mid-single-digit range, I would be more willing to underwrite the current valuation and likely above it. Conversely, if revenue growth slips toward the mid-teens while FCF margin stays around 20% and GAAP net income falls back negative, then fair value looks closer to 5x sales, or roughly the low-$130s to mid-$140s per share rather than $171.81.
Grok Reading
Atlassian’s numbers tell a story of a scaled SaaS franchise that has largely completed the hard part of growing into a multi-billion-dollar revenue base, yet has not delivered the operating leverage the valuation already assumes. Revenue compounded from $2.80B in FY2022 to $6.57B in FY2026—a 22.8% CAGR—with the latest full year up roughly 26% and trailing quarters still printing $1.59B–$1.79B. Gross margin sits at an elite 84.8%, free cash flow reached $1.32B on only $34M of capex, and the balance sheet is net-cash positive ($1.24B cash versus $990M debt). That cash engine is the real asset: roughly 20% FCF margins while GAAP operating income is a rounding error at $10.4M and annual net income remains slightly negative at –$54M. The most recent quarter’s $139M profit and 7.9% net margin is the first clean GAAP breakout after a string of losses, which matters—but one quarter does not reverse years of thin reported earnings.
What stands out against the bullish compounder narrative is the disconnect between top-line growth and cash compounding. FCF CAGR is listed at –3.5% even as revenue grew low-to-mid twenties; the company is converting more sales into cash than into reported profit, yet that cash pile is not expanding in line with the revenue base. Sequential revenue also slipped from $1.79B to $1.77B in the latest quarter, and the secondary signals flag decelerating quarterly trends. At a $43.5B market cap the stock trades at 6.8× sales and roughly 33× trailing FCF—pricing that only works if 20%+ growth persists and FCF margins climb toward the mid-to-high twenties. EV/EBITDA above 290× and a 42× price-to-book simply confirm how little tangible earnings or equity capital currently support the multiple. Insider activity is a wash of small sales, not a signal either way.
The strongest case against this caution is straightforward and data-backed: $1.32B of free cash flow on an asset-light model with 85% gross margins and a still-visible cloud-migration runway is exactly what premium SaaS is supposed to look like before full operating leverage appears. A smart opponent would note that stock-based compensation, not structural cash burn, is the main reason GAAP stays near break-even, that net cash and $1.35B of operating cash flow remove balance-sheet risk, and that a durable workflow moat in Jira/Confluence has historically justified 6–8× sales for compounders that later print 25–30% FCF margins. If the recent $139M quarterly profit marks the start of sustained GAAP profitability and the cloud mix continues to lift LTV, today’s 33× FCF compresses quickly. I weigh that case as real but already in the price: the market is not giving Atlassian a distressed multiple; it is paying for the best version of the migration-and-moat story while FCF growth lags revenue and competitive bundling from Microsoft remains unresolved.
I would flip more constructive on two concrete prints: two consecutive quarters of sequential revenue re-acceleration above ~8% with FCF margins holding or expanding above 22%, and a full-year operating margin that clears 8–10% rather than the current 0.2%. Sustained FCF above $1.6B on the next annual report while growth stays north of 18% would also justify the current $172 area. Absent that, the stock is priced for durability it has not yet fully earned in the cash-flow trajectory.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Atlassian is a scaled application-software business with revenue compounding from $2.80B (2022) to $6.57B (2026) - roughly 24% CAGR - while gross margin holds an elite 82-85% band. FCF has stepped from $750M to $1.32B, funding the business entirely; net cash is positive at $250M and Altman Z of 4.7 sits comfortably in safe territory. Mechanical earnings-quality checks are clean (Beneish -2.88, no accrual games), and the negative OCF/NI ratio simply reflects that GAAP net income remains slightly negative while cash generation is robust - a signature of deferred-revenue SaaS economics, not manipulation. The blemish is compensation architecture. SBC runs 24.4% of revenue, meaning 'adjusted' profitability materially overstates the economic reality; buybacks recover only 56.6% of SBC, so repurchases are largely a dilution mop rather than shareholder return. Diluted shares still crept from 253M to 260M (0.7% CAGR) - contained, but persistent. Operating margin has hovered at or below breakeven for five years (2.5, -9.8, -2.7, -2.5, 0.2), so GAAP operating leverage remains elusive despite revenue more than doubling. Insider tape shows only small routine sales (13 sells, $1.5M total) - non-directional and consistent with vesting mechanics.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Segment/cloud vs data-center revenue mix and whether cloud migration is driving the recent margin uptick
- Customer concentration and net revenue retention disclosed in 10-K
- Whether SBC as % of revenue is trending down as company scales
- Composition of the 13 insider sellers (execs vs board) and whether any are 10b5-1 planned
- Deferred revenue growth and RPO trajectory to validate cash-flow durability
- Any convertible notes or off-balance-sheet obligations behind the $250M net cash figure
Atlassian trades at roughly $43.5B market cap on a business where SBC at 24% of revenue means GAAP earnings materially understate the true owner economics - and even generously adjusted FCF multiples on a mid-teens grower do not get you to $171.81 without underwriting sustained 20%+ growth for many years. The e2e read is explicit: the price embeds a cloud-migration-plus-platform-monopoly outcome, and the bear case (Microsoft/open-source commoditization, TAM saturation on the freemium funnel) is not remotely reflected. A Solid-grade business deserves a premium, but the dilution-adjusted deserved value sits below spot, not above.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Cloud revenue growth deceleration curve in next 2 quarters
- Net revenue retention trend (is it drifting below 115%?)
- SBC as % of revenue - any sign of moderation
- Enterprise seat expansion vs new-logo mix
- Any guidance revision around FY growth targets
The active narrative on TEAM is a strong, durable platform-monopoly story with medium cult coefficient, and it is currently being fed - not starved - by the news flow. Three of the last big moves were earnings-driven upside gaps (a 37.6% surge on the Q2 print, a 29.6% surge on Q3, and another beat in early August with 28% revenue growth, 31% cloud growth, and a one-million AI user milestone). That directly neutralizes the bear angle (Microsoft/AI commoditization) and instead recasts TEAM as an AI winner. The just-announced Code Context beta and the 'winning in 2026 vs HubSpot/Monday' framing keep that story on the front foot, and the CFO's sale is small, forced, and explicitly framed as retained-confidence - not a sentiment negative. Macro is the only real crosswind: 10y at 4.69% and a 25.7 market PE are structurally hostile to high-multiple SaaS names where roughly 40-50% of the price is story. But the tape today is mildly risk-on (VIX 15, score +32), and TEAM's beta of 1.04 is only average, so the macro press is ordinary, not decisive. Momentum is strong-positive and the analyst tone (per the trade-press framing) is leaning toward TEAM as the sector's 2026 winner. Net: narrative, news, and momentum all push the same direction; rates/multiple compression risk is the lone offset. That is a tailwind, not a strong one, because the story is already priced and any AI-adoption stumble would flip the reflex quickly.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Next print - does cloud growth stay above 30% and does the AI user count keep compounding, or does the beat-and-raise streak break
- Any 10y move back toward 5% - high-multiple SaaS is where that pain lands first
- Microsoft/Copilot competitive headlines that could re-open the commoditization bear case
- Sell-side target revisions after the August print - are they chasing higher or fading the move
The world is doing two contradictory things to Atlassian. Digital work is fragmenting across more tools and more non-technical teams, which expands the surface Jira/Confluence/JSM can occupy — that is the tailwind carrying mid-20s growth against an 8% industry. Simultaneously, AI agents are attacking the seat as the billing unit: if work gets done by fewer people orchestrating software, per-user pricing has to convert into consumption or outcome pricing, and that transition is a re-underwriting event for every collaboration vendor, not just this one. Hyperscaler bundling (Microsoft) is the second-order pressure — not a share-taking threat today given switching costs on years of embedded project history, but a permanent ceiling on pricing power. Macro headwinds with the 10y at 4.69 slow tech hiring, which is the direct input to net seat adds. Net: the category grows, Atlassian keeps taking share for now, but the mechanism of monetization is under revision on a 2-3 year clock.
When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, TEAM was $171.81. We expect it to be $150.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $135.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.