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AGING Analysis Report
Apr 27, 2026
16 days ago · 92% complete

Tempus AI, Inc.

TEM NASDAQ Categories PDF
Healthcare · Medical - Healthcare Information Services
Chicago, IL 60654, United States IPO 2024 tempus.com Updated May 14, 4:14am
Price
$45.90
Market Cap
$8.0B
Employees
2,400
Beta
3.99
Avg Volume
5,650,583
CEO
Eric Lefkofsky
Business Description

Tempus AI, Inc. operates as a healthcare technology company. It engages in providing next generation sequencing diagnostics, polymerase chain reaction profiling, molecular genotyping, and other anatomic and molecular pathology testing to healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies, researchers, and other third parties. The company offers Insights, a license library of linked clinical, molecular, and imaging de-identified data, as well as a suite of analytical services to analytic and cloud-and-compute tools to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies; and Trials that provides clinical trial matching services to pharmaceutical companies. In addition, it operates Next; Algos, a suite of algorithmic tests in oncology; Hub, a desktop and mobile platform for ordering, managing, and receiving tests and patient results; and Lens, a platform for researchers and scientists to find, access, and analyze Tempus data. The company has a strategic collaborations agreement with AstraZeneca and Pathos AI, Inc. to develop therapeutic programs in oncology. The company was formerly known as Tempus Labs, Inc. and changed its name to Tempus AI, Inc. in January 2023. Tempus AI, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Business History
Generated: Apr 23, 2026 9:39am
Price Overview
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:25am (just now)
$46.20
+0.30 (+0.65%)
Day Range
$45.12 – $46.94
52-Week Range
$41.73 – $104.32
50-Day MA
$50.06
200-Day MA
$66.70
Volume
1,361,955.00
Analyst Price Targets
Low $59.00
Consensus $75.43
High $100.00
(27 analysts)
Share Structure
Outstanding 174,520,978.00
Float 105,455,349.00
Free Float 60.4%
Normal free float — 60.4% of shares trade freely, ~39.6% held by insiders/institutions
Healthy float typical of established companies. Good liquidity for entering and exiting positions without major price impact.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:14am (6h ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: May 8, 2026 9:53pm (5d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
API Direct from provider CALC Derived from statements
Industry comparison last run: Apr 27, 2026 3:40pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
CALC
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
-32.55
Stock Price: $45.90
EPS (Diluted): -1.41
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
API
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
20.94
Stock Price: $45.90
Total Equity: $491.33M
Shares: 174,264,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
API
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
-41.88
Market Cap: $8.01B
Total Debt: $815.71M
Cash: $604.79M
EBITDA: -$222.36M
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
API
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$10.5B
Market Cap: $8.01B
Total Debt: $815.71M
Cash: $604.79M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
API
Gross Profit / Revenue
69.6%
Gross Profit: $885.69M
Revenue: $1.27B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
API
Operating Income / Revenue
-18.8%
Operating Income: -$238.64M
Revenue: $1.27B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
API
Net Income / Revenue
-19.3%
Net Income: -$245.03M
Revenue: $1.27B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
API
Net Income / Total Equity
-70.2%
Net Income: -$245.03M
Total Equity: $491.33M
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
API
NOPAT / Invested Capital
-13.3%
Operating Income: -$238.64M
Tax Rate: 17.4%
Equity: $491.33M
Total Debt: $815.71M
Cash: $604.79M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
API
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
3.13
Current Assets: $1.17B
Current Liabilities: $372.39M
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
CALC
Total Debt / Total Equity
1.66
Short-Term Debt: $13.36M
Long-Term Debt: $802.35M
Total Debt: $815.71M
Total Equity: $491.33M
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
CALC
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$7.30
Revenue: $1.27B
Shares: 174,264,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
CALC
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$2.82
Total Equity: $491.33M
Shares: 174,264,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
CALC
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$-1.37
Operating CF: -$218.09M
CapEx: -$21.05M
Shares: 174,264,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
API
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.0%
Last Dividend: N/A
Stock Price: $45.90
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: -$245.03M
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Apr 27, 2026 3:40pm
Compares TEM against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Deep Analysis
Last run: Apr 27, 2026 3:44:14 pm

Pre-flight intelligence scans the company first, then routes to the right analytical methods.

0 Company Classification — What type of company is this?
1 Industry Landscape — Where is the industry headed?
2 Company Momentum — Where is this company trending?
3 Forward Projection — 1Y & 2Y projected metrics (requires Layer 1 + 2)
4a DCF Valuation — Present value of future cash flows
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4b Earnings Power Value — Floor value — worth with zero growth
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4c Anchored PE — Industry PE adjusted for growth differential
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4d Reverse DCF — What growth is the market pricing in?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4e Revenue-Based DCF — For growth/narrative companies (skip if mature earner)
4f Anchored P/S — Price-to-Sales peer comparison (skip if mature earner)
4g Scenario Analysis — Bull / Base / Bear (skip if mature earner)
4h Dividend Discount Model — For dividend/income stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4i Book Value Analysis — For deep value / turnaround stocks only
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4j Insider Activity — Are insiders buying or selling?
4f Cash Flow Quality — How trustworthy is the FCF?
4g Debt Maturity Risk — Can it handle its debt?
4h Macro Environment — Rates, market valuation, volatility
4i Sector Intelligence — How does this company compare within its sector?
4j Revenue Confidence — How reliable is the growth projection?
4k Sensitivity Analysis — How fragile is the fair value estimate?
Not applicable for Pre Profit Growth companies
4l Sector Demand Cycle — Is the sector in a boom, steady state, or contraction?
5 AI Investigation — Adaptive research engine (Claude)
5b Thesis Evaluation — What does the market believe? (narrative/platform stocks only)
6 Valuation Synthesis — Weighted verdict from all methods (requires Layer 4)
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: May 8, 2026 9:53pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $257.9M $320.7M $531.8M $693.4M $1.3B
Cost of Revenue $174.2M $190.5M $245.6M $312.3M $386.1M
Gross Profit $83.6M $130.2M $286.2M $381.1M $885.7M
Operating Expenses $327.4M $395.6M $482.3M $1.1B $1.1B
Operating Income -$243.7M -$265.4M -$196.1M -$691.1M -$238.6M
Net Income -$259.2M -$289.8M -$214.1M -$705.8M -$245.0M
EBITDA -$219.5M -$236.8M -$133.3M -$610.4M -$222.4M
EPS $-1.75 $-1.97 $-1.73 $-4.60 $-1.41
EPS (Diluted)
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: May 7, 2026 4:57pm (6d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $277.7M $302.9M $165.8M $341.0M $604.8M
Total Current Assets $404.0M $438.6M $350.3M $667.6M $1.2B
Total Assets $531.4M $631.4M $564.1M $926.1M $2.3B
Current Liabilities $114.8M $174.2M $232.6M $291.1M $372.4M
Long-Term Debt $238.2M $389.5M $449.7M $435.4M $802.4M
Total Liabilities $1.3B $1.8B $1.9B $869.8M $1.8B
Total Equity -$807.5M -$1.1B -$1.4B $56.3M $491.3M
Retained Earnings -$807.5M -$1.1B -$1.4B -$2.2B $0
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: May 8, 2026 9:53pm (5d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow -$212.0M -$168.2M -$214.3M -$189.0M -$218.1M
Capital Expenditure -$11.8M -$18.4M -$34.6M -$22.1M -$21.0M
Free Cash Flow -$223.8M -$186.6M -$248.9M -$211.2M -$239.1M
Acquisitions (net) -$6.0M -$39.6M -$5.7M -$95.2M -$376.7M
Debt Repayment
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$3.6M $0 -$3.0M
Net Change in Cash -$235.8M $25.3M -$137.1M $175.2M $263.8M
Analyst Estimates (Annual)
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:14am (6h ago)
Metric 2027 2028 2029 2030
Revenue $1.9B
$1.9B – $2.0B
$2.3B
$2.3B – $2.3B
$2.7B
$2.6B – $2.7B
$3.1B
$3.1B – $3.2B
EBITDA -$1.1B
-$1.1B – -$1.1B
-$1.3B
-$1.3B – -$1.3B
-$1.6B
-$1.6B – -$1.5B
-$1.8B
-$1.8B – -$1.8B
Net Income -$9.1M
-$129.2M – $111.0M
$78.4M
-$14.4M – $171.1M
$304.1M
$294.9M – $310.1M
$487.9M
$473.2M – $497.6M
EPS
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: May 8, 2026 9:53pm (5d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +24.4% +65.8% +30.4% +83.4%
Gross Profit Growth +55.6% +119.8% +33.2% +132.4%
Operating Income Growth -8.9% +26.1% -252.4% +65.5%
Net Income Growth -11.8% +26.1% -229.6% +65.3%
EBITDA Growth -7.9% +43.7% -357.8% +63.6%
Insider Trading (Recent)
Date Insider Type Shares Price Value
2026-05-04 Schoenherr Thomas Edward A-Award 13,642.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Rogers James William A-Award 10,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Polovin Andrew A-Award 10,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Bartolucci Ryan M A-Award 24,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-05-04 Fukushima Ryan A-Award 10,000.00 $0.00 $0
2026-04-28 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 105,430.00 $51.03 $5.4M
2026-04-28 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 27,570.00 $51.52 $1.4M
2026-04-28 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 26,360.00 $51.03 $1.3M
2026-04-28 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 6,890.00 $51.52 $354,973
2026-03-26 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 65,559.00 $45.78 $3.0M
2026-03-26 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 59,657.00 $46.91 $2.8M
2026-03-26 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 7,784.00 $47.42 $369,117
2026-03-26 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 16,388.00 $45.78 $750,243
2026-03-26 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 14,915.00 $46.91 $699,663
2026-03-26 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 1,947.00 $47.42 $92,327
2026-03-02 Epstein David R S-Sale 250.00 $50.69 $12,673
2026-03-02 Rogers James William S-Sale 11,414.00 $50.69 $578,576
2026-02-20 Schoenherr Thomas Edward 0.00 $0.00 $0
2026-02-19 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 33,717.00 $58.31 $2.0M
2026-02-19 LEFKOFSKY ERIC P S-Sale 95,567.00 $59.04 $5.6M
Delvantic AI Findings
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-04-27 15:44:48
Reviews the pipeline's own verdicts
Verdict Fairly valued to modestly expensive — organic growth is ~35% not 83%, insider selling is coordinated, and fair value sits at $40-48; wait for a pullback to $40 or a clean profitability inflection before committing.

Looking at the raw quarterly tape first: revenue progression is $145.8M → $166.0M → $180.9M → $200.7M → $255.7M → $314.6M → $334.2M → $367.2M. That's not "decelerating" in absolute terms — Q4'25 grew 83% YoY and 9.9% sequentially. The Q1'25 jump from $200.7M to $255.7M (27% sequential) is the AKESO/Ambry consolidation tell, which is why YoY comps look so heroic. Strip out the inorganic step-function and the underlying organic rate is more like 30-40%, not 83%. The Revenue Confidence model flagging "decelerating" is technically right on sequential growth rates (27% → 23% → 6% → 9.9%), and that matters for anyone underwriting an 83% trajectory continuing.

On margins, the loss profile is genuinely improving — 2024 op loss of -$691M on $693M revenue (-100%) collapsed to -$239M on $1.27B (-19%) in 2025. That's real operating leverage, but the Q4'25 net margin of -14.8% versus Q3'25 at -23.9% is noisy; quarterly NI bounces between -$13M and -$80M with no clean trend. Gross margin at 69.6% is the strongest data point in the file — that's software-like and supports the platform thesis. But OCF at -$218M against $605M cash means roughly 2.5-3 years of runway at current burn before they need capital, and the balance sheet shows no reported debt figure, which is suspicious given they did a convertible offering. I'd want to verify that before sizing anything.

The insider activity is unambiguous: I count ~360k+ shares sold across late Feb and late March 2026, against awards of ~276k. Net selling, and the March 26 cluster of six separate sales on the same day suggests a coordinated 10b5-1 cadence by multiple insiders — not a single executive's liquidity event. At $52 with the stock down 50% from $104, insiders aren't buying the dip. That's a real signal, not noise.

Where I push back on the prior models: the synthesis verdict of "High Conviction Required" is fine as a label but the fair-value anchor of "$35-40 (5x sales) or proof of 20%+ EBITDA margins" is the honest part and gets buried. Market Forces calling for a 50%+ reset is too aggressive given the gross margin profile and growth — Veeva trades at 13x sales profitably, Illumina trades at 4x sales as a no-growth incumbent; Tempus at 7.2x with 30-40% organic growth and improving operating leverage probably belongs at 5-6x sales, i.e. $35-42. Pre-Flight's read that the market has already repriced from blue-sky to "prove it" is correct, but "priced for strong execution" understates how much the convertible/dilution math degrades the equity story if they need to raise at these levels. The contrarian argument the models underweight: this is Eric Lefkofsky, and Groupon was a cautionary tale about a founder who optimized for growth narrative over unit economics until the music stopped. The pharma Insights segment lumpiness (Q3 weakness, Q4 rebound) hints at deal-timing dependency that won't show up until a bad quarter prints.

What's thin in the data: no debt figure, no equity figure, no FCF CAGR, no earnings CAGR — all blank. The TTM-derived ratios (ROE -60%, ROIC -10%) are uninformative for a pre-profit name and the anomaly flags are right to demote them. The ev_to_revenue of 8.26 vs ps of 8.09 is internally consistent and the only multiple worth anchoring on.

I dissent partially with the synthesis. "High Conviction Required" at $52 implies it's roughly fair if you believe; I think it's modestly expensive even if you believe, because the organic growth rate is closer to 35% than 83%, gross margin gains have largely played out (you don't get from 70% to 85%), and insiders are telling you with their feet. Fair value on a 5-6x forward sales multiple ($1.6-1.7B '26 revenue) lands at $42-50/share — basically here, with downside skew. I'd want $38-42 for a starter and would not chase.

GPT Critique
Second-opinion review · gpt-4o · generated 2026-04-27 15:44:57
Reviews the Opus findings above
Verdict I agree with Opus — Tempus AI is modestly expensive at $52.525, with fair value closer to $42-50, factoring in tempered growth expectations and insider selling signals.

Tempus AI, Inc. has undeniably demonstrated substantial revenue growth over the past few years, with a noteworthy increase from $257.9 million in 2021 to $1.27 billion in 2025. This translates to a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54.6%, which is impressive for any pre-profit growth company in the healthcare information services sector. However, despite this growth, the company remains unprofitable, with a net income of -$245 million in 2025, although this is an improvement from -$705.8 million in 2024. The gross margin expansion from 32% to 70% is a positive indicator, suggesting strong potential for future profitability. Yet, the continuous negative operating cash flow, reported at -$218.1 million for 2025, raises concerns about the company's cash burn rate and the sustainability of its operations without further capital infusion.

I find myself in agreement with Opus regarding the organic growth rate. Opus's assessment that the underlying organic growth rate is closer to 30-40% rather than the headline 83% is accurate when considering the inorganic contributions from consolidations like AKESO/Ambry. This aligns with the sequential growth rates, which have shown signs of deceleration. On margins, I concur with Opus that the improvement in operating losses from -$691 million to -$239 million is a clear sign of operating leverage, yet the quarterly net income volatility is a concern. The gross margin of 69.6% indeed supports the platform’s thesis, as Opus noted, but the continued cash burn indicates that the path to profitability is not yet clear.

Where I diverge from Opus is on the valuation perspective. While Opus suggests a fair value range of $40-48, I believe the current market pricing at $52.525 per share might still reflect the potential upside of Tempus's data-driven healthcare platform. The company's significant oncology dataset and the growing demand for real-world data in pharma present a compelling narrative for future growth. However, I share Opus’s caution about the insider selling activity, which could signal internal skepticism about the company's near-term prospects, adding weight to the argument for a more conservative valuation approach.

A skeptic might argue that both Opus and I are too optimistic about Tempus’s ability to transition to profitability. The absence of debt is notable, but without a clear path to sustainable positive cash flow, the company might face liquidity issues if the current cash reserves deplete before profitability is achieved. Additionally, the competitive landscape, with increasing pressure from established players like Quest and LabCorp, could impact Tempus’s ability to maintain its growth trajectory and margin improvements.

Opus Reconsideration
Opus responds to the GPT critique · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-04-27 15:45:25
Responds to the GPT critique above
Updated verdict Unchanged at $42-50 fair value, entry $38-42 — the reviewer concurred on the structural reads; their softer valuation lacks a multiple anchor and doesn't move the number.
Original Fairly valued to modestly expensive — organic growth is ~35% not 83%, insider selling is coordinated, and fair value sits at $40-48; wait for a pullback to $40 or a clean profitability inflection before committing.

PART 1 — Public response:

The second reviewer largely confirms the analytical spine of my original note — the organic growth rate adjustment from headline 83% to ~30-40%, the operating leverage read on the loss collapse from -$691M to -$239M, and the insider selling signal. Where they land on valuation ("$52.525 might still reflect potential upside") is softer than mine but they ultimately endorse the $42-50 fair-value range, so the practical disagreement is narrow. I don't think they added a load-bearing point I missed, but they did sharpen one thing worth flagging: the liquidity question. With $604.8M cash and -$218M OCF, runway math is real, and if the next capital raise comes at a depressed equity price the dilution math compounds with the multiple compression.

Where I think the reviewer is too soft: saying the current $52.525 "might still reflect the potential upside of the data platform" without anchoring it to a multiple or a forward revenue number is exactly the kind of narrative-over-numbers reasoning the insider selling is rebutting. If 2026 revenue lands at $1.65-1.75B (35-40% organic on $1.27B), 5-6x sales puts the equity at $42-50, 7x at $58. The reviewer's "upside" case implicitly requires holding the 7-8x multiple, and I don't see what underwrites that when sequential growth is decelerating (27% → 23% → 6% → 9.9% sequential), gross margin gains have largely played out at 70%, and insiders are net sellers across a coordinated cadence.

The reviewer's skeptic paragraph about Quest/LabCorp competitive pressure is a fair flag but doesn't move my number — that risk was already inside my 5-6x multiple rather than 7-8x. The point I'd actually upgrade in a rewrite is the convertible/dilution piece: I noted the missing debt figure as suspicious but didn't push hard enough on what a forced raise at $40 would mean for the per-share math. That's the asymmetric tail and it deserves more than a parenthetical.

Net-net, nothing in the critique changes my fair-value range or my entry discipline. The reviewer agreed with the structural reads and the directional verdict; their valuation softness is a stylistic difference, not a data-driven one. I'd still want $38-42 to start, would size up at proof of a clean OCF inflection or two consecutive quarters of organic growth holding above 35%, and I'd treat any pre-emptive equity raise as a thesis-changing event.

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Data via Financial Modeling Prep · Cached for performance · fmp
v1.1.207 · 22a3a690 · 2026-05-13 17:39:54