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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-09-04): Designation Watch · Gem Score -9 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 87 · Value -73 · Sentiment 33 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $97.42 vs $157.55 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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The TJX Companies, Inc.
TJX NYSEThe TJX Companies, Inc. is a leading off-price retailer of apparel and home fashion merchandise, headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts since its founding in 1962. The company operates through four main business segments: Marmaxx, which includes TJ Maxx and Marshalls stores; HomeGoods, featuring home furnishings and décor; TJX Canada; and TJX International. The TJX Companies, Inc. serves value-conscious consumers by offering brand-name and designer merchandise at discounted prices through its diverse store formats. The company operates a substantial network of retail locations across multiple markets, distributing apparel, footwear, accessories, and home goods to shoppers seeking quality products at reduced prices. With an extensive physical retail presence and a commitment to the off-price retail segment, The TJX Companies, Inc. plays a significant role in the apparel and home retail industries, serving both individual consumers and contributing substantially to the retail landscape across North America and internationally.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.87
Total Equity: $10.19B
Shares: 1,128,000,000
Total Debt: $2.87B
Cash: $6.23B
EBITDA: $8.43B
Total Debt: $2.87B
Cash: $6.23B
Revenue: $60.37B
Revenue: $60.37B
Revenue: $60.37B
Total Equity: $10.19B
Tax Rate: 24.7%
Equity: $10.19B
Total Debt: $2.87B
Cash: $6.23B
Current Liabilities: $13.36B
Long-Term Debt: $1.87B
Total Debt: $2.87B
Total Equity: $10.19B
Shares: 1,128,000,000
Shares: 1,128,000,000
CapEx: -$1.96B
Shares: 1,128,000,000
Stock Price: $157.55
Net Income: $5.49B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:29pm (34d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.5B | $49.9B | $54.2B | $56.4B | $60.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $34.7B | $36.1B | $38.0B | $39.1B | $41.7B |
| Gross Profit | $13.8B | $13.8B | $16.3B | $17.2B | $18.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $9.1B | $8.9B | $10.5B | $10.9B | $11.5B |
| Operating Income | $4.8B | $4.9B | $5.8B | $6.3B | $7.2B |
| Net Income | $3.3B | $3.5B | $4.5B | $4.9B | $5.5B |
| EBITDA | $5.6B | $5.7B | $6.8B | $7.4B | $8.4B |
| EPS | $2.74 | $3.00 | $3.90 | $4.31 | $4.93 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.70 | $2.97 | $3.86 | $4.26 | $4.87 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:02am (34d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $6.2B | $5.5B | $5.6B | $5.3B | $6.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $13.3B | $12.5B | $12.7B | $13.0B | $15.2B |
| Total Assets | $28.5B | $28.3B | $29.7B | $31.7B | $35.8B |
| Current Liabilities | $10.5B | $10.3B | $10.5B | $11.0B | $13.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $3.4B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $1.9B |
| Total Liabilities | $22.5B | $22.0B | $22.4B | $23.4B | $25.6B |
| Total Equity | $6.0B | $6.4B | $7.3B | $8.4B | $10.2B |
| Retained Earnings | $5.5B | $5.8B | $6.7B | $7.9B | $9.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:29pm (34d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.1B | $4.1B | $6.1B | $6.1B | $6.9B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.0B | -$1.5B | -$1.7B | -$1.9B | -$2.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.0B | $2.6B | $4.3B | $4.2B | $4.9B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $0 | $0 | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$1.3B | -$1.3B | -$1.5B | -$1.6B | -$1.8B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$2.2B | -$2.3B | -$2.5B | -$2.5B | -$2.5B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$4.2B | -$750.0M | $123.0M | -$265.0M | $895.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:29pm (34d ago)| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +2.9% | +8.6% | +4.0% | +7.1% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -0.4% | +18.0% | +6.0% | +8.4% |
| Operating Income Growth | +2.2% | +19.3% | +8.7% | +13.9% |
| Net Income Growth | +6.6% | +27.9% | +8.7% | +13.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +2.2% | +17.6% | +9.5% | +13.8% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 1, 2026 12:02am (34d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-13 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-14 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.43 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-13 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-14 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-15 | $0.38 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-14 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-08 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-09 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-10 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-08 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-09 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-10 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-11 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-09 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-09 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-11 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — upside vs downside from this company's own quarters
Computed 2026-09-02 02:12A +1σ run of quarters pays -43%; a −1σ run costs 54%. Ratio -0.8:1 (μ 6.7%, σ 3.3% floored by sector, 16 pairs).
Older method (repeat-worst-quarter): -0.7 : 1
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($157.55) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +10% | 11.2% | $101.43 | -36% |
| Base — stabilizes | +7% | 9.7% | $80.26 | -49% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +3% | 8.3% | $62.28 | -60% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +5% | 9.7% | $77.23 | -51% |
| Upside — a +1σ run of quarters (v2) | +10% | 9.7% | $89.48 | -43% |
| Stress — a −1σ run of quarters (v2) | +3% | 9.7% | $72.26 | -54% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a boringly excellent story. Trailing four quarters of revenue sum to ~$61.6B with net income ~$5.78B (9.4% net margin), versus $57.3B and $5.08B a year prior — that's ~7.5% revenue growth and ~14% earnings growth, cleanly beating the 5.5% five-year revenue CAGR as operating margin expanded from 9.8% (FY22) to 11.9% (FY26). Q1 FY27 (May 2026) printed $14.32B revenue up 9.2% YoY with 9.3% net margin vs 7.9% prior-year Q1 — margin expansion is accelerating, not decelerating. ROIC of 79% and ROE of 54% on debt/equity of 0.28 with $6.23B cash against $2.87B debt is a genuinely elite capital-efficiency profile. FCF of $4.92B on $174B market cap is a 2.8% FCF yield — thin, but the reinvestment rate is low and buybacks/dividends absorb most of it.
Where I part company with the synthesis: the $104-112 "fair value" composite looks mechanically low for a business earning 79% ROIC and compounding earnings at low-teens. At $157.55 and ~$4.80 TTM EPS, the ~33x P/E is rich versus a 10-year average closer to 22-24x, but the earnings growth in the current print (13% YoY) exceeds the 5-year CAGR and margins are still expanding — this is not a decelerating mature earner, it's a mature earner mid-re-rating on demonstrated margin gains. A more defensible fair value uses a 25-27x multiple on forward EPS of ~$5.10-5.20 → $128-140, meaning the stock is 10-20% expensive, not 29% expensive. The synthesis and the narrative layer both correctly identify the premium but the DCF anchor at $111.75 implicitly assumes multiple compression AND growth deceleration simultaneously; that's double-counting the bear case.
The contrarian argument the models underweight: off-price is genuinely counter-cyclical on the demand side but pro-cyclical on the supply side — TJX's sourcing advantage depends on brand oversupply/inventory glut at full-price retailers, which is abundant right now (post-2022 inventory hangover still working through) but historically mean-reverts. If full-price retail rationalizes inventory management (which Nike, Lululemon, and others have publicly committed to), TJX's gross margin tailwind reverses. Gross margin went from 28.5% (FY23) to 31.0% (FY26) — 250bps of that expansion is the interesting question. Is it structural (scale, logistics, buying team) or cyclical (glut)? Neither the momentum model nor the narrative layer interrogates this, and it's the single biggest risk to the thesis. The "macro headwinds" secondary signal also contradicts the bull narrative of "recession-resistant cash machine" — you can't have both a consumer-weakness tailwind AND macro headwinds hurting the stock; one of those framings is wrong.
Data-quality flags: the "annual" canonical metrics appear to reflect FY26 (Jan 2026) actuals but the P/E of 32.35 implies EPS of ~$4.87 which reconciles with FY26 NI of $5.49B / ~1.13B shares — that's trailing, not forward, so the premium looks worse than it is on forward numbers. Insider activity isn't provided, which is a real gap for a $174B name where insider selling would be a meaningful tell. Market Forces failed entirely — I'd normally want a competitive-dynamics read on Burlington and Ross before committing. My verdict: I partially dissent from the synthesis's "fully_priced" framing only on magnitude — the composite fair value is too pessimistic, but the direction is right. TJX is 10-15% expensive, not 29% expensive; it's the kind of quality name where you wait for a 5-8% market pullback rather than short or exit. The trajectory of accelerating margin and 13% earnings growth on a 9%+ topline in Q1 doesn't support aggressive de-rating unless comp growth breaks. I'd be a buyer under $140, a holder here, and a seller only above $175.
GPT Reading
TJX is an excellent business priced like an exceptional one. The operating story is easy to like: revenue has climbed from $48.55B in FY2022 to $60.37B in FY2026, a 24% increase in four years, while operating income rose from $4.75B to $7.18B and net income from $3.28B to $5.49B. That is not just sales growth; it is genuine profit leverage. Gross margin improved from 28.5% in FY2023 to 31.0% in FY2026, operating margin from 9.7% to 11.9%, and net margin from 7.0% to 9.1%. Quarterly data show that this is not a one-off holiday distortion: the latest quarter delivered $14.32B of revenue and $1.33B of net income versus $13.11B and $1.04B a year earlier, taking margin from 7.9% to 9.3%. For a retailer of this scale, that combination of compounding sales, margin expansion, and resilience is rare.
The balance sheet and cash generation strengthen the quality case. TJX has $6.23B of cash against just $2.87B of debt, so it is in net cash despite returning capital. Operating cash flow of $6.87B and free cash flow of $4.92B on $60.37B of sales mean it converts roughly 8% of revenue into free cash, excellent for a brick-and-mortar retailer still spending nearly $2.0B on capex. Reported ROE of 53.9% is inflated by a relatively thin $10.19B equity base, but even adjusting for that, the economics are clearly strong; ROA of 15.4% and high margins support the view that TJX is a best-in-class operator. This is exactly the kind of retailer that deserves a premium to department stores, apparel chains, and most discretionary peers.
But the stock price already reflects that superiority and then some. At $157.55, TJX trades at 32.4x earnings, 2.94x sales, and 20.3x EV/EBITDA. Those are rich multiples for a company whose medium-term growth profile, based on the raw numbers here, looks more like mid-single-digit revenue growth and low-double-digit earnings growth than anything explosive. Annual revenue growth from FY2025 to FY2026 was 7.1%; from FY2024 to FY2025 it was 4.0%. Earnings are growing faster because margins are rising, but operating margin is already 11.9%, up from 9.8% two years ago. That leaves less room for multiple years of easy expansion. Put differently, the market is valuing TJX more like a long-duration compounder than a mature off-price retailer. A 32x P/E against a 10.8% earnings CAGR and 1.1% dividend yield does not leave much room for normal retail volatility, let alone a consumer slowdown. I think the stock is over-earning its multiple, not the other way around.
The best argument against that view is straightforward: TJX keeps beating the “mature retailer” template. Recent quarterly numbers show accelerating year-over-year comparisons, with revenue up 9.2% and earnings up nearly 28% in the most recent quarter versus the prior-year quarter, and the full-year trend shows a business still widening margins despite already large scale. If the company can sustain 7%-8% sales growth and push net margin toward 10%, then EPS can plausibly grow in the low-to-mid teens for longer than skeptics expect. Add a fortress balance sheet, recession-resistant trade-down dynamics, and a history of disciplined merchandising, and perhaps 32x is simply the price of certainty in a market short on dependable growers. I respect that case; I just think it asks investors to assume that cyclical consumer demand, sourcing advantages, and margin gains all stay unusually favorable at once.
What would change my mind is not another “good quarter,” but evidence that the business can outrun the valuation from here. Specifically, I would need to see revenue sustain above 8% annual growth for several quarters while net margin holds around 9.5%-10.0%, implying annual net income power moving decisively past $6.0B without balance-sheet risk. If TJX can show that FY2027 is not just another 6%-7% revenue year but a step-up year with continued margin expansion, the premium could be justified. Conversely, if revenue slips back toward 4%-5% growth or operating margin stalls near 12%, the current multiple should compress. At today’s price, I see a great company but not a great stock; fair value is closer to $120-$130 than $157.55.
Grok Reading
TJX’s numbers describe a machine that keeps grinding out incremental excellence: fiscal 2026 revenue of $60.37B grew 7.1% year-over-year, net income climbed to $5.49B for a 9.1% net margin, and operating margin reached 11.9%—all while free cash flow hit $4.92B against only $1.96B of capex. The last five years show earnings CAGR of 10.8% roughly doubling the 5.5% revenue CAGR, evidence of sustained gross-margin leverage (now 31%) and tight cost control rather than top-line heroics. Quarterly progression is clean: the May 2026 quarter delivered $14.32B revenue and a 9.3% net margin versus $13.11B and 7.9% a year earlier, confirming the same trajectory. Balance-sheet strength is unambiguous—$6.23B cash against $2.87B debt, debt-to-equity of 0.28, ROE of 54% and ROIC of 79%—so capital returns and store growth can continue without leverage risk. The story the raw data tell is textbook mature-earner compounding with genuine operating leverage, not a cyclical recovery flash.
Yet the market is asking 32.4× trailing earnings, 20.3× EV/EBITDA and nearly 3× sales for a retailer whose top line still expands at mid-single digits. That multiple embeds the assumption that mid-teens EPS growth can persist for half a decade while the off-price moat remains pristine; anything short of that leaves the stock vulnerable to ordinary multiple compression toward the high-teens or low-20s that more typical high-quality retailers command. FCF yield is only 2.8% and the dividend yield 1.1%, so the valuation is almost entirely a growth-and-quality story rather than a cash-return story. At $157.55 the shares already discount near-perfect execution; the composite fair-value work pointing near $112 simply quantifies how little margin of safety remains once that perfection is removed.
The strongest counter-argument is that scarce, high-ROIC compounders routinely and correctly trade at premiums that look absurd on trailing multiples. TJX has delivered rising margins through inflation spikes, supply-chain chaos and shifting consumer wallets; its sourcing flywheel and inventory turns are structural advantages that full-price peers cannot replicate. Institutional ownership and sell-side targets in the $170–185 range reflect a consensus that 12–15% EPS compounding plus modest multiple stability is realistic, which would make today’s 29× forward PE (assuming another 12% earnings step-up) look merely full rather than egregious. In a world starved for durable mid-teens growers with fortress balance sheets, the 41% premium to DCF can be defended as the price of admission rather than a bubble.
I would reverse to a neutral or constructive stance if the next two quarters print revenue growth re-accelerating through 9–10% while net margin holds above 9.5%, or if a market-wide drawdown brings the stock into the $120–130 zone (roughly 24–26× forward earnings) where the same fundamentals would offer a genuine margin of safety.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue has climbed from $48.55B in FY2022 to $60.37B in FY2026 (roughly 5.6% CAGR) with gross margin expanding from 28.5% to 31.0% and operating margin from 9.8% to 11.9%. Net income rose from $3.28B to $5.49B (67% cumulative) while free cash flow scaled from $2.01B to $4.92B - and crucially FCF has tracked or exceeded net income (OCF/NI 1.19x), with accruals a healthy -2.9% of assets and Beneish M at -2.59, indicating clean earnings. Altman Z of 6.86 confirms deep balance sheet safety. Per-share value is being concentrated: diluted share count fell from 1.22B to 1.13B (-1.9% CAGR), SBC is a trivial 0.4% of revenue, and buybacks run 13.8x SBC - management is a genuine net repurchaser, not a dilution offsetter. Net cash of $3.36B plus $4.92B/yr FCF means the business is fully self-funding with optionality. What is impressive is the direction: margins are not just holding, they are expanding through a period when many apparel peers have struggled with inventory and promotions - consistent with the off-price model absorbing excess supply from full-price channels. This is the profile of a mature earner that is still improving, not coasting.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Lease obligations and off-balance-sheet commitments (retail footprint is lease-heavy; net cash framing may understate true leverage)
- Inventory turns and mark-down cadence in the 10-K to confirm margin expansion is structural, not timing
- Geographic and segment mix (Marmaxx vs HomeGoods vs Europe) to assess concentration risk
- Buyback pace vs authorization remaining, and whether repurchases have been opportunistic or steady
- Any pension or long-term liability items not visible in the summarized trajectory
The composite FV of $104.05 and signal-adjusted FV of $111.75 both sit roughly 29-34% below the $157.55 price. DCF pins $87.29 and EPV floor $58.84, while only the anchored-PE method ($182.76) supports the tape - and that method essentially extrapolates today's premium multiple forward, so it is more a mirror of market sentiment than an independent deserved-value check. Two of three methods say clearly rich; one says cheap by leaning on the multiple. That is a classic priced-for-perfection setup.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward comp guidance and Q/Q comp trend across Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX International
- Merchandise margin trajectory and freight/shrink assumptions in FY26 guide
- Buyback pace vs current price (are they still repurchasing at this multiple)
- Any one-time items inflating recent EPS that anchored-PE relies on
The macro backdrop is mildly supportive: VIX at 16.5, S&P at highs, and a nascent risk-on regime. TJX's low beta (0.62) means the tape barely moves it either way, but the narrative pressure is what matters here and it leans positive. The active story is the classic off-price winner: recession-resistant cash machine, consumer trade-down beneficiary, consistent comps. Fundsmith reiterating the thesis, Zacks flagging the industry favorably, and a 'likely beat' pre-earnings piece all reinforce a steady, non-euphoric bullish drumbeat. Analyst tone is bullish and the stock has outpaced the market over the past year - momentum and tone are aligned. There is no narrative crack visible in the news flow; if anything, the trade-down story is getting reaffirmed in an environment where consumers are still stretched. The offset is that this is a moderate-intensity, low-cult story running into an earnings print with 'beat expected' already priced in - the setup risk is that a merely-in-line quarter disappoints given how consensus is positioned. Higher rates and a 26.9 market PE are a generic overhang but land lightly on a low-beta defensive compounder like TJX. Net: a persistent, ordinary tailwind, not a decisive one.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Q2 earnings print - specifically comp growth and gross margin commentary vs the 'perfect execution' expectation embedded in tone
- Any crack in the trade-down narrative if consumer data softens or higher-end retail surprises positively
- Whether target revisions actually rise post-print or the bullish tone stalls
- Sector rotation out of defensive consumer staples-adjacent names if risk-on broadens
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 5, 2026, TJX was $157.55. We expect it to be $148.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $120.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 5, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.
Post-Report Due Diligence UNSETTLED
Evidence for a closer look, not a verdict — no score or designation on this page has been changed by it. Items marked material are ones where a conclusion above moves to the other side of the price.
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