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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +2 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 42 · Value -30 · Sentiment 34 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $68.69 vs $74.61 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Turning Point Brands Inc.
TPB NYSETurning Point Brands Inc. is a consumer products company that focuses on offering a wide range of tobacco products and related alternatives. Its primary function is to manufacture and distribute well-known brands such as Zig-Zag, Stoker's, and VaporBeast, which cater to diverse consumer preferences in the tobacco industry. The company operates through three main segments: Smokeless Products, Smoking Products, and NewGen Products, each serving specific demands in the market, such as moist snuff, smoking papers, and vaping products, respectively. Turning Point Brands Inc. holds a significant position in the niche segment of the industry with a combination of traditional and innovative products. Renowned for its strong retail presence and multi-channel distribution strategy, the company plays a pivotal role in shaping consumer choices by balancing traditional offerings with modern alternatives in response to evolving consumer trends.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 3.11
Total Equity: $371.98M
Shares: 18,730,635
Total Debt: $293.63M
Cash: $222.76M
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $293.63M
Cash: $222.76M
Revenue: $463.06M
Revenue: $463.06M
Revenue: $463.06M
Total Equity: $371.98M
Tax Rate: 18.0%
Equity: $371.98M
Total Debt: $293.63M
Cash: $222.76M
Current Liabilities: $75.01M
Long-Term Debt: $293.63M
Total Debt: $293.63M
Total Equity: $371.98M
Shares: 18,730,635
Shares: 18,730,635
CapEx: -$13.53M
Shares: 18,730,635
Stock Price: $74.61
Net Income: $58.17M
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $445.5M | $415.0M | $405.4M | $360.7M | $463.1M |
| Cost of Revenue | $227.6M | $209.5M | $202.2M | $159.1M | $198.7M |
| Gross Profit | $217.8M | $205.5M | $203.2M | $201.6M | $264.3M |
| Operating Expenses | $128.6M | $130.6M | $125.6M | $123.7M | $169.9M |
| Operating Income | $90.3M | $75.5M | $82.6M | $80.8M | $95.3M |
| Net Income | $52.1M | $11.6M | $38.5M | $39.8M | $58.2M |
| EBITDA | $95.3M | $80.8M | $88.9M | — | — |
| EPS | $2.75 | $0.65 | $2.19 | $2.24 | $3.18 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.52 | $0.64 | $2.01 | $2.14 | $3.11 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:44pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $128.3M | $106.4M | $117.9M | $48.9M | $222.8M |
| Total Current Assets | $249.2M | $257.7M | $267.6M | $198.2M | $417.2M |
| Total Assets | $601.6M | $572.1M | $569.4M | $493.4M | $763.8M |
| Current Liabilities | $40.3M | $41.4M | $100.3M | $44.8M | $75.0M |
| Long-Term Debt | $414.2M | $406.8M | $307.1M | $248.6M | $293.6M |
| Total Liabilities | $467.8M | $458.7M | $417.4M | $303.0M | $391.8M |
| Total Equity | $133.7M | $113.4M | $152.0M | $190.4M | $372.0M |
| Retained Earnings | $71.5M | $78.7M | $112.4M | $147.2M | $199.7M |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $68.2M | $30.3M | $66.9M | $67.1M | $57.4M |
| Capital Expenditure | -$6.2M | -$7.7M | -$5.7M | -$4.6M | -$13.5M |
| Free Cash Flow | $62.1M | $22.6M | $61.2M | $62.4M | $43.8M |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$16.4M | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $250.0M | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$4.1M | -$4.3M | -$4.5M | -$4.9M | -$5.5M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$38.7M | -$29.2M | $0 | -$5.1M | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | — | — | — | — | — |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 2:02pm (21d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -6.8% | -2.3% | -11.0% | +28.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -5.6% | -1.1% | -0.8% | +31.1% |
| Operating Income Growth | -16.4% | +9.4% | -2.1% | +17.9% |
| Net Income Growth | -77.6% | +230.4% | +3.5% | +46.1% |
| EBITDA Growth | -15.2% | +10.1% | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 1:45pm (21d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-20 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-19 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-19 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-20 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-21 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-20 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-21 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-15 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-16 | $0.07 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-15 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-15 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-16 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-17 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-16 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-16 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:10Recovery pays +103%; another quarter like the worst recent one costs 72%. Ratio 1.4:1.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($74.61) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +22% | 32.1% | $151.72 | +103% |
| Base — stabilizes | +15% | 27.9% | $105.85 | +42% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +7% | 23.7% | $71.64 | -4% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +17% | 4.4% | $20.96 | -72% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw quarterly trajectory tells a genuinely bullish story that the models are underweighting. Revenue has stepped from $93.2M (Q2'24) to $124.3M (Q1'26) — that's 33% growth over seven quarters, not the "melting ice cube" the pre-flight narrative suggests. Q1'26 net margin recovered to 9.4% with sequential revenue up every quarter for five consecutive prints. Full-year 2025 revenue of $463.1M vs 2024's $360.7M is +28.4% YoY, and 2025 net income of $58.2M nearly doubled 2021's peak on lower revenue. This doesn't look like secular tobacco decline; it looks like Zig-Zag/Stoker's taking share plus modern-oral (ZYN-adjacent) NewGen ramping. Gross margin at 57.1% and operating margin at 20.6% are structurally healthy. FCF of $43.8M against a $1.45B cap is a ~3% yield — not cheap, not egregious.
Where I disagree with the prior stack: the "mature_earner" classification and the Market Forces "late-cycle consolidation masquerading as growth" read are both too dismissive. A mature earner doesn't post 28% revenue growth with expanding operating margins (op income $95.3M in 2025 vs $80.8M in 2024 on $102M more revenue — 14% incremental operating margin is soft, admittedly, suggesting acquisition mix). The Market Forces claim of "deteriorating cash generation" is technically supported by the -15.3% FCF CAGR, but 2021 FCF was inflated and 2025 OCF of $57.4M on capex of just $13.5M is capital-light and real. The synthesis verdict of $81 fair value vs $74.61 (+8.9%) feels roughly right on magnitude but for the wrong reasons — it treats this as fair-value-with-caveats when the trajectory arguably deserves a growth-adjusted multiple.
The contrarian case is real and I won't dismiss it. First, the Q3'25 net income of $21.1M is an outlier that flatters the trailing metrics — strip it and margins look choppier (6.8%, 9.4% in the two most recent quarters is a step down from the 12-17% band). Second, Q1'26 revenue growth decelerated to +16.8% YoY vs Q4'25's +29% and the earlier +28% prints — the Revenue Confidence flag of "decelerating" is legitimate. Third, the insider ledger shows only awards and one small sale — no open-market buying at these prices despite the stock being 49% off highs, which is telling for a management team that presumably knows whether the NewGen ramp is sustaining. Fourth, debt/equity of 0.79 with $293.6M debt is manageable but not trivial for a tobacco roll-up dependent on continued acquisitions to mask organic decline in legacy categories. Fifth, FDA regulatory risk on flavored nicotine pouches and synthetic nicotine is a genuine tail risk not reflected in a 24x P/E.
My verdict: I dissent modestly toward undervalued rather than fair value. At $74.61 with $58.2M in TTM-ish net income growing, EV/revenue of 3.3x, and a business generating 20%+ operating margins with mid-teens ROE, this is priced as if 2025 growth was a one-off. If Q2'26 prints another sequential revenue increase and margins normalize back to 12%+, the stock re-rates to $85-90. If growth decelerates to single digits and Q3'25's margin proves the anomaly (not the recent quarters), fair value is $65-70. The asymmetry favors owning it, but sizing should respect that (a) insiders aren't buying, (b) the FCF CAGR is genuinely negative, and (c) the deceleration in recent YoY growth is real. Starter position at current levels, add on any pullback to $68, trim above $88. The synthesis at $81 fair value is defensible; my read is $82-86 with a wider distribution than they're implying, and the market-forces "neutral/bearish" tilt is overweighting regulatory pessimism relative to the visible top-line acceleration.
GPT Reading
The raw numbers say TPB is not a melting ice cube right now; it is a small tobacco platform that has clearly reaccelerated. Revenue went from $360.7M in 2024 to $463.1M in 2025, up 28%, and the quarterly run-rate has stayed elevated into 2026 with Q1 revenue of $124.3M versus $106.4M a year earlier, another 16.8% gain. That matters because this is happening while gross margin expanded from 55.9% in 2024 to 57.1% in 2025 and operating income rose from $80.8M to $95.3M. This is not the profile of a business barely holding on. Net income climbed from $39.8M to $58.2M in 2025, and the last four quarters sum to roughly $55.5M, implying the earnings base has largely held after the step-up. On capital efficiency, 17.6% ROIC and 15.6% ROE are healthy for a defensive name, especially one carrying only about $70.8M of net debt after offsetting $293.6M debt with $222.8M cash. The current ratio above 5 is excessive for a tobacco company and gives real balance-sheet flexibility.
What stands out negatively is cash conversion. Against $58.2M of 2025 net income, operating cash flow was only $57.4M and free cash flow $43.8M, which leaves the stock trading at roughly 33x trailing FCF on a $1.45B market cap. That is too expensive for a no-growth tobacco business, but TPB is not being valued like one because the revenue line just inflected sharply. Even so, the market is already charging 24x earnings, 3.0x sales, and 3.27x EV/revenue for a regulated consumer staples company in a structurally challenged category. Those are premium multiples relative to what I would want when free cash flow has a negative 5-year CAGR and annual revenue in 2025 only just exceeded 2021’s $445.5M after several messy years. The quarterly net margins also bounce around more than a true staple compounder: 2.6% in Q4 2024, 17.7% in Q3 2025, then back to 6.8% in Q4 2025 and 9.4% in Q1 2026. That volatility argues against paying a clean defensive premium.
So my read is that the business is better than the “structural decline/value trap” shorthand, but the stock already reflects most of that improvement. At $74.61, investors are paying up for a recovery that is visible in the income statement but not yet fully proven in cash flow durability. If I annualize the latest quarter, revenue is about $497M and net income about $46.8M; if I instead use the last four quarters’ actual $55.5M of earnings, the valuation is not absurd, but it is hardly cheap for tobacco with regulatory overhang and uneven conversion to FCF. A more appropriate entry for me would be closer to the low-to-mid $60s, where the earnings multiple would better compensate for category risk and cash flow softness. The model output calling this roughly fairly valued is closer to right than the more bearish narrative layer, but even that may be slightly generous unless FCF catches up.
The best case against my caution is straightforward: the business may have crossed into a higher earnings plateau and I may be anchoring too much to old tobacco heuristics. Revenue has risen sequentially for seven straight reported quarters from $90.7M to $124.3M. Annual operating margin improved to 20.6%, gross profit jumped to $264.3M from $201.6M, and the balance sheet is strong enough that capital allocation optionality is real. If 2025 was not acquisition noise or channel fill but the new base, then 24x trailing earnings can compress quickly to the high teens on forward numbers, which would make $74.61 look reasonable to slightly cheap. The very low payout ratio of 9.5% also means management has room for dividend growth or buybacks without stressing the business. In that framing, the stock deserves better than a classic sin-stock discount because it is growing faster than the category and carrying limited net leverage.
What would change my mind is simple: if the next two quarters keep revenue above $120M and convert that into cleaner cash generation, I would turn constructive. Specifically, I would want to see full-year operating cash flow running comfortably above net income and free cash flow moving toward $60M-$70M, not stuck in the low $40Ms. I would also want confirmation that margins can stay around a 20% operating margin and a 10%+ net margin without the quarter-to-quarter lurching seen recently. If those numbers show up, fair value moves into the $80s. If instead revenue growth slips back toward low single digits while cash flow lags earnings again, the stock should de-rate into the $60-$65 range.
Grok Reading
Turning Point Brands printed $463.1M in 2025 revenue, a 28.4% rebound from the $360.7M trough in 2024 that reclaimed and surpassed the $445.5M level of 2021. The quarterly sequence is unambiguous: $106.4M in Q1 2025 stepped to $116.6M, $119.0M, $121.0M and then $124.3M in Q1 2026, putting the current run-rate near $497M annualized. Net income reached $58.2M at a 12.6% margin, operating margin held at 20.6%, and gross margin sat at 57.1%—evidence of real pricing power inside the Zig-Zag and Stoker’s niches rather than a passive volume melt. The balance sheet is clean for the sector: $222.8M cash against $293.6M debt leaves only ~$71M of net debt, a 5.56 current ratio, and debt-to-equity of 0.79. Free cash flow of $43.8M on $57.4M of operating cash flow after just $13.5M of capex shows serviceable conversion, while ROIC of 17.6% and ROE of 15.6% are respectable for a consumer-defensive name.
At $74.61 and a $1.45B market cap the stock screens at 24x trailing earnings, 3.0x sales and 3.27x EV/revenue. That sits 9–14% below the composite fair-value zone of $81–85 and embeds almost no narrative premium—consistent with the “steady-compounder” label and minimal cult coefficient. Earnings CAGR of 23% has outrun the 6.9% revenue CAGR, so margin expansion and mix did the heavy lifting; sequential growth has already decelerated from the mid-teens early in the recovery into low-single-digit quarter-on-quarter advances, exactly the profile of a mature earner once the base has reset. The 0.42% dividend yield and 9.5% payout confirm this is not owned for income; any bull case rests on cash generation, low leverage and NewGen optionality.
The clear fracture in the data is free-cash-flow trajectory: FCF CAGR of –15.3% over the multi-year window while reported earnings climbed. That gap—strong current conversion quality against a deteriorating longer-term FCF path—raises the possibility that working-capital swings around the 2024 trough, acquisition accounting, or genuine cash-conversion pressure are being papered over by the income statement. The Market Forces observation that 2025 revenue was M&A-inflated is the live risk; without a clean organic split, part of the 28% snap-back may have been purchased rather than earned. Still, the post-deal quarterly run-rate continues to grind higher into 2026 and net leverage remains low enough that any deal has been absorbed without stressing the balance sheet.
The strongest case against labeling the shares undervalued is that 24x earnings for a tobacco name confronting secular volume decline, regulatory tightening and macro headwinds is not a bargain—cleaner cash-flow peers routinely clear lower multiples. FCF yield of roughly 3% on market cap offers thin compensation for category risk, secondary signals flag low revenue confidence and below-sector benchmarks, and Q4 2025 plus Q1 2026 net margins compressed to 6.8% and 9.4% from the mid-teens earlier in 2025, hinting that peak profitability may already be behind us. If the top-line recovery was largely acquired and organic volumes are still eroding, earnings power is overstated and $75 is simply a value trap. Insiders are net neutral—routine awards plus one 4,000-share sale—so there is no insider endorsement either.
I would flip to outright overvalued if the next two quarters show revenue stalling below $120M or quarterly FCF dropping under $8M, confirming the rebound was a sugar high. Two further quarters of sequential revenue growth above 2% with FCF conversion holding above 70% of net income and any disclosure of clean mid-single-digit organic growth would raise conviction and push a fair-value anchor above $90.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
TPB is a mature earner with genuine cash generation: FCF of roughly $43-62M annually over five years, OCF/NI of 1.66x, and negative accruals (-3.3% of assets) all point to clean earnings quality. Gross margin has climbed from 48.9% in 2021 to 57.1% in 2025, and revenue re-accelerated to $463.1M in 2025 after a multi-year drift down from $445M to $361M. Net income of $58.2M on 20.6% operating margin in 2025 is the best profit print in the window. Altman Z of 4.13 puts the balance sheet in the safe zone despite $222.8M cash being outweighed by debt (net cash -$70.9M). Capital discipline is a real strength: diluted share count fell from 22.4M to 18.7M (-4.4% CAGR), SBC is a modest 1.5% of revenue, and buybacks run 2.17x SBC - management is a net buyer concentrating per-share value. Insider tape is mostly awards with only two small directional sales (~$562K); nothing alarming, nothing bullish. The soft spots: Beneish M at -1.3 crosses the -1.78 threshold and warrants a closer read given the sharp 2025 revenue jump (+28% YoY) after years of decline; net debt means the balance sheet is a constraint rather than a cushion; and the tobacco/alternatives category carries structural/regulatory risk not visible in the financials.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Drivers of the 2025 revenue jump from $360.7M to $463.1M - organic vs. acquired (any M&A), and any accounting policy changes
- Composition of receivables and inventory growth in 2025 vs. sales growth (Beneish M sub-components)
- Debt maturity schedule, interest coverage, and any convertible notes affecting the diluted share count math
- Segment mix - Zig-Zag vs. Stoker's vs. NewGen (CBD/vape) - and customer/distributor concentration
- Regulatory exposure on modern oral nicotine, synthetic nicotine, and any pending FDA PMTA outcomes
- Nature of the 2022 net income collapse to $11.6M (impairments, one-time charges)
The composite fair value is $85.06 and the signal-adjusted FV is $81.26, putting the deserved-value gap at roughly 9-14% above the $74.61 price. That is thin for a tobacco small-cap carrying secular-decline and regulatory tail risk. The methods disagree sharply: DCF lands at $80.01 (roughly in line with signal-adj FV), EPV floor is only $47.82 (meaning if growth stalls, downside to a no-growth capitalized-earnings floor is ~36%), and the anchored P/E prints $132.39 which is almost certainly a runaway multiple extrapolation on a peak-margin year and should be discounted heavily. Strip the anchored-PE outlier and the honest deserved range is roughly $60-85, with a midpoint essentially on top of today's price. Earnings quality is high (score 2) so no haircut needed there, and the Solid business grade supports the upper half of that range - but neither is a reason to pay up. What is priced in: continued Zig-Zag/Stoker's cash generation, gradual NewGen contribution, and steady buybacks. What would break the thesis: a NewGen stumble or FDA action on modern oral / alternative nicotine, which would collapse the DCF toward EPV. Net: fair, not cheap. I would want the price closer to the EPV-anchored zone before adding size.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- NewGen segment growth and margin trajectory in the latest 10-Q
- Zig-Zag and Stoker's organic volume vs price mix
- Any FDA correspondence or PMTA status updates on modern oral / alternative nicotine SKUs
- Net leverage and interest coverage post recent debt actions
- Buyback pace and share-count trajectory vs guidance
The macro tape is barely a factor here. Regime is neutral-leaning-tailwind (+22), VIX is a sleepy 16, and TPB's 0.92 beta means it inherits the market's mood without amplification. As a consumer defensive tobacco name, it is structurally insulated from the higher-rates / stretched-multiple headwind that would clobber a high-beta growth story. That macro shrug is the dominant fact for this ticker right now.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any FDA / flavor-ban / PMTA headline that would reprice the whole nicotine cohort
- Whether the recent momentum run attracts sell-side upgrades or is faded by profit-taking
- VIX break above 20 that would test the low-beta defensive bid
- NewGen segment commentary in next print - the only place a narrative could ignite
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.