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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Trane Technologies plc (TT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score -9 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 76 · Value -78 · Sentiment 49 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $231.97 vs $482.31 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Trane Technologies plc
TT NYSETrane Technologies plc is a global industrial company specializing in climate and temperature-control solutions for built environments and transportation. The company focuses on heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), and refrigeration systems, along with associated controls, parts, and services for commercial buildings, residential properties, and transport fleets. Its portfolio is anchored by the Trane and Thermo King brands, which serve sectors such as office and institutional buildings, industrial facilities, data centers, retail, and cold-chain logistics. Trane Technologies operates through three primary geographic segments: Americas, EMEA, and Asia Pacific, tailoring systems, services, and energy solutions to regional customer needs in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. The company emphasizes energy-efficient equipment, building management controls, and ongoing maintenance and service contracts, positioning it as a key player in improving indoor environmental quality and operational reliability for businesses and homeowners worldwide. Headquartered in Swords, Ireland, Trane Technologies serves a diversified global customer base across industrial and commercial markets.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 12.98
Total Equity: $8.60B
Shares: 224,900,000
Total Debt: $4.62B
Cash: $1.76B
EBITDA: $4.34B
Total Debt: $4.62B
Cash: $1.76B
Revenue: $21.32B
Revenue: $21.32B
Revenue: $21.32B
Total Equity: $8.60B
Tax Rate: 19.2%
Equity: $8.60B
Total Debt: $4.62B
Cash: $1.76B
Current Liabilities: $6.29B
Long-Term Debt: $3.92B
Total Debt: $4.62B
Total Equity: $8.60B
Shares: 224,900,000
Shares: 224,900,000
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 224,900,000
Stock Price: $482.31
Net Income: $2.92B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:28am (14d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.1B | $16.0B | $17.7B | $19.8B | $21.3B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $2.6B | $2.8B | $3.2B | $3.9B | $4.1B |
| Operating Income | $2.0B | $2.4B | $2.9B | $3.5B | $4.0B |
| Net Income | $1.4B | $1.8B | $2.0B | $2.6B | $2.9B |
| EBITDA | $2.3B | $2.7B | $3.2B | $3.9B | $4.3B |
| EPS | $5.96 | $7.55 | $8.85 | $11.35 | $13.09 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.87 | $7.48 | $8.77 | $11.24 | $12.98 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:29am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.2B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| Total Current Assets | $6.5B | $6.4B | $6.9B | $7.3B | $7.9B |
| Total Assets | $18.1B | $18.1B | $19.4B | $20.1B | $21.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $4.8B | $5.7B | $6.1B | $6.1B | $6.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | $4.5B | $3.8B | $4.0B | $4.3B | $3.9B |
| Total Liabilities | $11.8B | $12.0B | $12.4B | $12.7B | $12.8B |
| Total Equity | $6.3B | $6.1B | $7.0B | $7.5B | $8.6B |
| Retained Earnings | $8.4B | $8.3B | $9.1B | $9.8B | $10.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:28am (14d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.6B | $1.5B | $2.4B | $3.1B | $3.2B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$223.0M | -$291.8M | -$300.7M | -$370.6M | — |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.4B | $1.2B | $2.1B | $2.8B | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$269.2M | -$234.7M | -$862.8M | -$180.3M | -$276.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$432.5M | -$9.6M | -$55.4M | -$9.0M | -$159.1M |
| Dividends Paid | -$561.1M | -$620.2M | -$683.7M | -$757.5M | -$837.3M |
| Stock Buybacks | -$1.1B | -$1.2B | -$669.3M | -$1.3B | -$1.5B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$1.1B | -$938.7M | -$125.2M | $494.8M | $173.2M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:28am (14d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +13.1% | +10.5% | +12.2% | +7.5% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | +19.6% | +19.6% | +20.9% | +13.4% |
| Net Income Growth | +23.4% | +15.2% | +26.9% | +13.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | +18.1% | +18.2% | +19.7% | +12.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:29am (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-06 | $1.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-05 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-06 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-07 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-06 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-06 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-07 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-29 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-30 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-31 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-01 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-02 | $0.75 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-01 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-01 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-02 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-03 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-02 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-02 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2021-06-03 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:11Even the bull case prices 64% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 77%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($482.31) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +14% | 15.3% | $175.05 | -64% |
| Base — stabilizes | +9% | 13.3% | $134.91 | -72% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +5% | 11.3% | $102.11 | -79% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +6% | 11.9% | $111.55 | -77% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw trajectory first: revenue has compounded from $14.1B (2021) to a TTM run-rate around $22.2B (summing the last four quarters: $6.35+$4.97+$5.14+$5.74 = $22.2B), and net income from $1.42B to roughly $2.95B TTM. That's ~9-10% revenue CAGR with ~20% earnings CAGR — real operating leverage, not financial engineering. The Q2 2026 print is striking: $6.35B revenue (+10.4% YoY vs Q2 2025's $5.75B) with 14.6% net margin, and Q1 2026 revenue of $4.97B was +6.0% YoY. Margins have been consistently expanding in the seasonal peak quarters (Q2/Q3 running 14.6-15.2% net) while Q1/Q4 sit around 11.5-12.9%. Balance sheet is clean: $4.62B debt against $3.19B operating CF and $8.6B equity — debt/EBITDA well under 1x. ROIC of 28% and ROE of 34% are genuinely elite for an industrial. This is not a broken company.
But the synthesis verdict of $225 fair value against a $482 price is doing something aggressive I want to interrogate. At 37x earnings on $2.95B TTM NI, the market cap of $106B implies roughly 36x — expensive but not deranged for a compounder growing EPS ~20%. A PEG near 1.8 is premium, not absurd. The DCF anchor at $225 implies mid-single-digit growth and normalized margins reverting — that's a bear case, not a base case, given ROIC has been *rising* not mean-reverting. EV/EBITDA of 25x is where I'd push back: peers like Carrier and Lennox trade 18-22x, so TT carries a 15-30% quality premium that's defensible but not a 2x overvaluation. The synthesis is anchoring to a normalized-margin scenario that the last eight quarters actively contradict.
Where the bears have real ammunition: this is still a cyclical building products business, and the market is pricing zero cyclical risk. Commercial HVAC data center exposure is real but concentrated — if hyperscaler capex normalizes in 2026-2027, the growth algorithm compresses fast. The Q1 2026 revenue growth of only 6% versus Q2's 10.4% could be the leading edge of that deceleration, or just seasonal noise — I can't tell from this data alone. The narrative layer's "platform-monopoly" framing is a stretch; TT competes with Carrier, Daikin, Johnson Controls, and increasingly capable Chinese OEMs in a market where switching costs are moderate, not Salesforce-grade. Payout ratio of 29% and yield of 0.8% signal management believes reinvestment IRRs remain high — I'd want to see FCF conversion and capex intensity, which are conspicuously absent from the file (flagged as "—"). That gap matters: without FCF/capex, I can't verify whether the earnings quality is truly cash-backed or working-capital-flattered.
Committing: I dissent from the synthesis's $225 fair value — that number reflects a mean-reversion assumption the operating data doesn't support. But I also can't defend $482. On $2.95B TTM earnings growing 15-20%, a 28-30x multiple gets you to $85-90B market cap or roughly $385-410/share — a 15-20% overvaluation, not 53%. The prior models are directionally right (overvalued) but the magnitude is overstated by anchoring DCF assumptions to a cyclical-industrial template that ignores demonstrated ROIC persistence. A careful contrarian would note that every "quality compounder" looks overvalued until the next recession compresses the multiple by 30% in six months — TT went from $280 to $180 in 2022 on exactly that dynamic. The right posture is: not a buy here, trim if held, and the re-entry level is $380-400, not $225. The synthesis is over-bearish; the price is over-bullish; truth is in between but closer to the synthesis than to spot.
GPT Reading
What stands out is not a broken business but an almost immaculate one being valued like a scarce software asset. Trane has grown annual revenue from $14.14B in 2021 to $21.32B in 2025, a 51% increase in four years, while net income more than doubled from $1.42B to $2.92B. Operating income rose from $2.02B to $3.97B over the same span, lifting operating margin from roughly 14.3% to 18.6%. That is real quality: 2025 ROIC of 28.0%, ROE of 33.9%, net margin of 13.7%, and operating cash flow of $3.19B. The quarterly run-rate into 2026 remains healthy rather than euphoric: Q2 2026 revenue was $6.35B, up 10.4% from $5.75B a year earlier, and net income grew 5.8% to $925.7M; Q1 2026 revenue was up 6.0% year over year to $4.97B, but net income slipped 3.4% to $584.4M. So the core story is still good growth plus high returns, but the latest data also says the easy phase of margin expansion may be slowing.
At $482, the valuation is the issue. On 2025 numbers, investors are paying 37.2x earnings, 25.4x EV/EBITDA, 5.1x sales, and 12.6x book for a company whose recent top-line growth is 7-10%, not 20%+. Even giving credit for durable aftermarket/service economics and pricing power, those are heroic multiples for a mature industrial with some cyclical exposure. The market cap of $106.1B is about 36x 2025 net income and roughly 27x 2025 operating cash flow. Net debt is modest at about $2.86B, so this is not financial engineering; the premium is entirely about expectations. To justify this price, Trane likely needs to sustain high-single-digit revenue growth and keep expanding margins from already strong levels, despite having moved from 14.3% operating margin in 2021 to 18.6% in 2025. That is asking a lot from a business already executing near peak quality.
The raw quarterly sequence reinforces that skepticism. Revenue is still advancing, but not accelerating in a way that explains a near-40x P/E. Net margins have oscillated between 11.5% and 15.2% over the last six quarters, with Q1 2026 weaker than Q1 2025 on profit despite higher sales. TTM numbers are still excellent, but if the business is transitioning from “growth plus margin expansion” to “growth with margin normalization,” the multiple should compress materially. A great company can be a poor stock when bought at too rich a price, and this looks like one of those cases. My read is that fair value belongs much closer to a best-in-class industrial premium than a category-defying scarcity multiple — something like low-30s earnings on current earnings power would already be generous, implying a price more in the high $300s than the high $400s.
The strongest case against that view is that Trane may deserve to be treated less like a cyclical equipment maker and more like a compounder with structural demand tailwinds. The numbers do support that argument more than many bears admit: annual revenue growth near 10%, earnings CAGR over 20%, ROIC at 28%, low leverage, current ratio of 1.25, and sustained double-digit quarterly net margins. If commercial HVAC replacement, energy-efficiency retrofits, refrigerant transitions, and data-center cooling demand create a longer runway than old-cycle frameworks assume, then 25x EV/EBITDA may be the right price for resilience, not excess. The counter is that even this bull case does not erase the valuation strain. A business growing revenue 7.5% year over year and earnings 13.7% year over year can deserve a premium; it does not automatically deserve 5.2x revenue and 37x earnings unless that growth is unusually long-duration and margin expansion remains intact for years.
What would change my mind is straightforward: if the next several quarters show revenue compounding above 10% while net margin sustainably holds at 14-15% or better, then today’s multiple would look less reckless because Trane would be proving it can keep scaling without giving back profitability. I would also revisit a more constructive stance if operating cash flow starts rising meaningfully faster than earnings and the company shows that 2025’s $3.19B was not just a good year but a new base. Conversely, a single-digit revenue print paired with margin slippage toward 11-12% would confirm that the stock is priced for a better business than the one the numbers now show.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue has grown from 14.14B in 2021 to 21.32B in 2025 (roughly 11% CAGR) with operating margin expanding every single year from 14.3% to 18.6%. Net income more than doubled (1.42B to 2.92B) and FCF scaled from 1.37B to 3.19B, with OCF/NI at 1.09x and accruals a clean -1.1% of assets - the earnings are cash-backed, not accrual-inflated. Altman Z of 7.34 puts it firmly in the safe zone. Capital allocation is shareholder-friendly: diluted share count fell from 242.3M to 224.9M (-1.9% CAGR) and buybacks ran ~16x SBC, so per-share value is being concentrated rather than diluted (SBC is a trivial 0.4% of revenue). The balance sheet is the one soft spot - net debt of ~2.85B against 1.76B liquid cash - but with 3.19B annual FCF this is a manageable working constraint, not a survival issue. The combination of steady operating leverage, HVAC/climate tailwinds implied by the classification, and consistent execution over five years points to a durable mid-cycle industrial franchise. Nothing in the mechanical earnings-quality checks flags.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Segment mix and exposure to commercial HVAC vs residential vs transport refrigeration - concentration risk
- Debt maturity ladder and average coupon on the ~4.6B gross debt implied by net debt figure
- Backlog trend and book-to-bill in the most recent 10-Q to test whether the 2025 growth is sustaining
- Organic vs acquired growth split within the 11% revenue CAGR
- Gross margin figures (shown as 0 in the table - likely a data gap) to confirm margin expansion is not purely mix/opex driven
Price is $482.31 against a composite fair value of $228 and signal-adjusted $225 - roughly half of today's quote. The DCF pins deserved value at $156 and the EPV floor at $117; only the anchored-PE method ($484) validates the tape, and that method essentially assumes the current multiple is the right multiple, so it is circular. Strip that out and the fundamentals-based methods cluster in the $120-230 range, implying the market is paying 2x to 4x what discounted cash flows and earnings power support.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic vs price/mix contribution to recent revenue growth - is pricing power still expanding or peaking
- Backlog trends and book-to-bill in Commercial HVAC
- Segment margin durability if volume normalizes
- Capital allocation - pace of buybacks at these multiples vs M&A
The sentiment picture for TT is net positive. The market regime is mildly risk-on (VIX 14.9, S&P at highs), and a 1.21 beta means TT participates fully in that buoyancy rather than lagging. More importantly, the freshest catalyst is stock-specific and bullish: a 6% pop on a raised 2026 guide plus a completed $1.07B buyback. That is exactly the kind of print that reinforces the 'platform-monopoly with pricing power' narrative and gives longs ammunition to defend the premium multiple. The story is doing real work here, and management just fed it. Counterweights exist but are secondary. Macro sensitivity is a mild drag: 10y at 4.69%, market PE at 26, and a narrative-driven premium mean any risk-off flinch or rate spike would hit TT harder than a defensive low-beta peer, because the bear case (cyclical capex play dressed as essential services) is coiled and ready to be reactivated on any cyclical wobble. Narrative durability is only 'moderate' and cult is low, so there is no fanatic bid to catch a fall. But right now, with a guide raise in hand and no crack in the story, the pressure vector points up.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any softening in North American commercial HVAC orders or backlog commentary that would reactivate the cyclical bear case
- Analyst target revisions post-guide-raise - are sell-side numbers chasing the print or fading it
- Whether the risk-on regime holds; a VIX spike above 20 would disproportionately pressure premium-multiple industrials
- Any competitive noise from Chinese OEMs or regional HVAC players cited in bear thesis
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 9, 2026, TT was $482.31. We expect it to be $452.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $300.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 9, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.