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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for U.S. Bancorp (USB) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -18 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 38 · Value -63 · Sentiment 30 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $65.26 vs $63.94 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
U.S. Bancorp
USB NYSEU.S. Bancorp is a diversified financial services holding company headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota. It operates primarily through its U.S. Bank National Association subsidiary, providing a broad range of banking and financial solutions to consumers, small businesses, corporations, and public sector clients. The company’s core activities include commercial and consumer lending, depository services, cash management, and foreign exchange, as well as trust and investment management services. U.S. Bancorp also offers mortgages and refinancing, auto and recreational vehicle loans, credit cards, home equity and other credit lines, along with checking and savings accounts tailored to different customer segments. In addition, it delivers payment services, merchant acquiring, ATM processing, online and mobile banking, and a variety of wealth management, brokerage, insurance, and leasing services. With a strong presence across multiple U.S. regions, U.S. Bancorp plays a significant role in the regional banking landscape, serving as a key provider of credit, transaction services, and financial infrastructure to households and institutions.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 4.62
Total Equity: $65.65B
Shares: 1,638,528,139
Total Debt: $17.16B
Cash: $46.89B
EBITDA: N/A
Total Debt: $17.16B
Cash: $46.89B
Revenue: $28.54B
Revenue: $28.54B
Revenue: $28.54B
Total Equity: $65.65B
Tax Rate: 20.2%
Equity: $65.65B
Total Debt: $17.16B
Cash: $46.89B
Current Liabilities: N/A
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $17.16B
Total Equity: $65.65B
Shares: 1,638,528,139
Shares: 1,638,528,139
CapEx: $0.00
Shares: 1,638,528,139
Stock Price: $63.94
Net Income: $7.57B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026 1:06pm (15d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.7B | $24.2B | $28.0B | $27.3B | $28.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gross Profit | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Expenses | $9.1B | $9.6B | $11.1B | $11.2B | $11.0B |
| Operating Income | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income | $8.0B | $5.8B | $5.4B | $6.3B | $7.6B |
| EBITDA | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | $5.11 | $3.69 | $3.27 | $3.79 | $4.62 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.10 | $3.69 | $3.27 | $3.79 | $4.62 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:33am (17d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $28.9B | $53.5B | $61.2B | $56.5B | $46.9B |
| Total Current Assets | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Assets | $573.3B | $674.8B | $663.5B | $678.3B | $692.3B |
| Current Liabilities | — | — | — | — | — |
| Long-Term Debt | $32.1B | $39.8B | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $517.9B | $623.6B | $607.7B | $619.3B | $626.7B |
| Total Equity | $55.4B | $51.2B | $55.8B | $59.0B | $65.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $69.2B | $71.9B | $74.0B | $76.9B | $80.9B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026 1:06pm (15d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $9.9B | $21.1B | $8.4B | $11.3B | $8.0B |
| Capital Expenditure | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — | — | — |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$8.8B | $1.8B | $11.5B | $6.0B | $1.3B |
| Dividends Paid | -$2.6B | -$2.8B | -$3.0B | -$3.1B | -$3.2B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$1.6B | -$69.0M | -$62.0M | -$173.0M | -$489.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$33.7B | $24.6B | $7.7B | -$4.7B | -$9.6B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 8, 2026 1:06pm (15d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +6.4% | +15.8% | -2.4% | +4.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income Growth | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income Growth | -26.8% | -6.8% | +16.0% | +20.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | — | — | — | — |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:34am (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-31 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-30 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-31 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-30 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-28 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-27 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-28 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-28 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-29 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-30 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-29 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-29 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-29 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-30 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-30 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2021-09-29 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw trajectory first: revenue has moved from $6.86B (Q3'24) to $7.71B (Q2'26), roughly 12% over seven quarters, with net income margin expanding from 25.0% to 28.2%. That's not a bank in distress — that's operating leverage from stabilizing NIM and disciplined expense management. Annual NI went $5.43B → $6.30B → $7.57B, a 39% two-year jump on essentially flat revenue ($28.01B → $28.54B). This is the classic late-cycle bank pattern: earnings recovery from a depressed base as credit provisions normalize and rate positioning turns favorable. ROE at 11.5% is still below the mid-teens the bull story requires, and ROA at 1.09% is competent-not-elite for a super-regional. At 13.8x trailing P/E and 1.6x book with a 3.25% yield and 42% payout, you're paying a modest premium for a franchise earning roughly its cost of equity.
The synthesis verdict of "fully priced" with $55 fair value looks directionally right but the -13.7% gap feels overstated given the earnings trajectory. Recent earnings YoY of 20.2% versus the composite's implicit assumption of low-single-digit growth is a real tension — if you annualize the Q2'26 run-rate ($2.18B × 4 = $8.72B), forward P/E drops to ~11.4x, which is not demanding for a bank with expanding margins. The Market Forces "value trap losing market share" claim needs evidence I don't see in the numbers — 4.4% revenue YoY with 20%+ earnings growth is not what market-share loss typically looks like. Thesis Evaluation's -21 score leans heavily on the "NIM compression is inevitable" bear (82/100 weight), but that's a directional bet on rates, not a fundamentals read. If the Fed cuts slowly, USB's asset-sensitivity has already been reset; if cuts accelerate, deposit costs fall faster than asset yields on the reprice.
The contrarian bull case the models under-weight: USB completed the Union Bank integration, is past the heavy CET1 rebuild, and payments/wealth are genuinely counter-cyclical (~40% of revenue is fee-based). The insider activity — small option-exercise-and-sell of ~60K shares total against a 1.56B share float — is noise, not signal. Where I'd push back on my own optimism: operating cash flow of $7.97B against $7.57B net income means earnings quality is fine but not conservative, and the $46.9B cash figure is misleading for a bank (that's interest-earning balances, not dry powder). Book value per share is roughly $42; at $63.94 you're paying 1.52x tangible-adjusted, which historically caps upside for regionals absent ROE expansion to 13%+. The data is also thin on credit metrics — no NCO trajectory, no reserve coverage, no CRE exposure breakdown, which for a regional bank in 2026 is exactly what matters. Office CRE is the un-modeled tail here.
Net: I partially dissent from the $55 fair value. The composite is anchoring on stale revenue-CAGR (0.9%) while ignoring that margin expansion has done the work — earnings CAGR of 18% is what you actually own. Fair value at 12x forward earnings of ~$8.5B on 1.56B shares is closer to $65, essentially where it trades. This is fairly valued, not overvalued by 14%. The narrative layer got it right: 16% premium sits at signal-to-noise, and the durable premium is small. I wouldn't buy here, but I wouldn't short or trim on valuation alone — the risk is credit normalization or a rate-cut cycle that compresses NIM faster than fee income offsets, not that the current multiple is stretched. Wait for either a pullback to $58 (10.7x forward, 1.4x book) or a credit-cycle scare that shakes out weak holders before adding. Existing holders collecting 3.25% while ROE grinds toward 13% are being paid to wait.
GPT Reading
USB looks like a quality bank, but the stock is priced as if quality alone can overwhelm the arithmetic of modest growth and merely decent returns. The operating trend is clearly improving: quarterly revenue rose from $6.86B in 2024’s third quarter to $7.71B in 2026’s second quarter, while quarterly net income climbed from $1.71B to $2.18B. That is not a troubled-bank profile. Net margin has also stepped up from 23.7% in 4Q24 to 28.2% in the latest quarter, and annual net income recovered from $5.43B in 2023 to $7.57B in 2025. The problem is that the market is already rewarding USB for that recovery with a 13.8x P/E and 1.60x book multiple, despite ROE of only 11.5%. For a bank, price-to-book matters more than for most sectors, and paying 1.6x book for an 11%-12% ROE franchise implies investors are treating this as a reliably above-cycle compounder. The raw data say it is a very solid regional bank, not an exceptional one.
What stands out most is the disconnect between earnings growth and revenue growth. Annual revenue was $28.54B in 2025 versus $28.01B in 2023, basically flat over two years, yet net income jumped from $5.43B to $7.57B. Quarterly trends tell the same story: revenue growth has been positive but not explosive, while margin expansion has done the heavy lifting. That can be real and durable to a point, but banks rarely get awarded premium multiples indefinitely for margin repair alone. If the investment case depends on sustaining a 26%-28% net margin on low-single-digit revenue growth, then there is not much room for error. At a nearly $100B market cap, investors are paying about 13x the latest annualized quarterly earnings run-rate and 3.7x sales for a bank whose five-year revenue CAGR is barely positive and whose 2025 earnings still sit below the $7.96B earned back in 2021. This is recovery, not reinvention.
The balance sheet does support a quality premium, just not this much of one. Cash of $46.89B against $17.16B of debt and equity of $65.65B gives USB a conservative look on the simplified figures provided, and the 3.25% dividend yield with a 41.9% payout ratio suggests the dividend is well covered. Operating cash flow of $7.97B also broadly aligns with reported earnings power. So I do not buy the more dramatic bear framing that this is a disguised value trap or that something is structurally broken. I think the cleaner read is simpler: USB is earning its premium versus weaker regionals, but the stock price already discounts that superiority. A bank at 1.6x book should usually be delivering stronger ROE than 11.5% or have a much clearer path to mid-teens returns than the data here demonstrate. Without that, fair value is closer to the mid-to-high $50s than $64.
The best case against my view is straightforward and respectable. The latest six quarters show consistent sequential improvement: revenue went from $6.96B in 1Q25 to $7.71B in 2Q26, and net income from $1.71B to $2.18B. If that run-rate holds, annualized earnings power is closer to $8.5B-$8.7B, which would pull the effective P/E down and make the current price less demanding. On that lens, the 2025 ROE is stale and understates normalized profitability. A bull would also argue that USB deserves a structural premium because it has diversified fee businesses, disciplined expenses, and lower perceived balance-sheet risk than the average regional bank; 1.6x book is not crazy if ROE is moving toward 13%-14%. I take that seriously. But I weigh it less heavily because the data still show a business with sub-1% annualized revenue CAGR over the longer snapshot and earnings that are benefiting disproportionately from margin recovery. Until that recovery is proven across a full cycle, I do not want to pay a franchise premium as if the hard part is over.
What would change my mind is evidence that the higher earnings base is truly durable rather than a favorable phase. Specifically, I would want to see two or three more quarters with revenue holding above $7.5B and net income at or above $2.1B without margin slipping back below 26%, plus a clear lift in annual ROE toward at least 13%. If annual earnings power gets above $8.3B while book value compounds enough to make 1.6x book look conservative, then $64 is defensible and I would move closer to fair value. On the other hand, if quarterly net income falls back under $1.9B or revenue stalls around $7.2B-$7.3B, the stock should not be trading above $60.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
U.S. Bancorp is a mature, cash-generative regional bank running around $27-28B of revenue with net income recovering to $7.57B in 2025 after a post-Union Bank integration dip to $5.43B in 2023. Operating cash flow comfortably exceeds net income (OCF/NI 1.85x, accruals -0.8% of assets), consistent with clean earnings quality for a bank. Diluted share count grew from 1.56B to 1.64B over five years (about 1.2% CAGR), largely reflecting the Union Bank stock issuance, and has been flat-to-down since 2023 - dilution is not eroding per-share value in a material way. The Altman Z of 0.3 flagged as 'distress' is a false positive: the model is built for industrial firms, not deposit-funded banks, so it should be discounted here. Real balance-sheet risk for USB sits in credit quality, CRE exposure, and AOCI/securities marks, none of which are visible in this dataset. Insider activity is neutral-to-slightly-negative (two small sales, no open-market buys), typical for a mega-cap bank and not a directional signal. Overall this reads as a solid, well-run super-regional - earnings recovering, cash flow real, capital return discipline intact - but without the return-on-tangible-equity or fee-mix profile that would mark a truly elite franchise.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Tangible book value per share trajectory and AOCI drag from the securities portfolio
- CRE and office-loan concentration, non-performing loan and net charge-off trends
- CET1 ratio and regulatory capital cushion post-Category II designation
- Deposit mix - noninterest-bearing share and cost of deposits trend
- Fee income mix (payments, wealth, trust) as a share of total revenue and its growth rate
- Payments segment (Elavon) competitive position given fintech disruption
The e2e composite fair value lands at $56.24 and the signal-adjusted FV at $55.17, both anchored by an anchored-PE method that seems reasonable for a mature super-regional bank grinding back to mid-teens ROE. Against a $63.94 print and roughly $99.6B market cap, that implies about -14% upside; the market is paying a mid-teens premium to what a Solid-but-not-exceptional franchise deserves. Earnings quality is good, so no haircut is warranted, but the quality lens itself grades this a 38 - decent, not a franchise you overpay for. The bull case (fortress balance sheet, diversified fee streams, buyback-driven EPS) is largely in the price; the bear case (deposit pressure, digital disruption, regulatory drag) is not. There is no discernible gap to exploit here - deserved value roughly $55, price $64, so the buyer is funding future execution rather than buying a discount. For a bank with no standout economics still digesting Union Bank, that is an unattractive setup.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- NIM trajectory and deposit beta in next quarterly guidance
- Union Bank integration cost run-off and normalized efficiency ratio
- Buyback pace and CET1 headroom under Basel III endgame proposals
- Any one-time charges or securities-loss repositioning distorting anchored EPS
USB is a beta-0.98 regional bank sitting in a benign risk-on tape (VIX 14.9, S&P at highs). That regime is mildly supportive for banks broadly, and USB specifically just got tagged in an IBD-style 'new highs, near buy points' piece alongside BAC and PNC - the kind of technical/momentum sentiment cue that pulls trend-followers in without requiring a story. Narrative intensity is explicitly minimal and cult coefficient is low, so there is no euphoric bid to fade nor a broken story to punish. Momentum reads strong_positive. Macro cross-currents are mixed: 10y at 4.69% with a positive curve (0.44) is a reasonable NIM backdrop, but a market PE of 26 is a background valuation headwind for all equities. Because USB is a steady-compounder archetype with moderate durability and no active thematic pressure (no AI-disruption overhang, no credit-crisis narrative pressing regionals right now), the macro headwind lands lightly. Net: a modest, unglamorous tailwind driven by tape + technical sentiment, not story.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether the 'new highs' technical setup holds or fails - a failed breakout would flip short-term sentiment
- Any shift in regional-bank narrative (credit stress at a peer, CRE headlines) that could re-tar the whole cohort
- Analyst target revisions post next print - a cluster of upgrades would harden the tailwind
- 10y direction: a sharp drop revives NIM-compression fears, a spike revives deposit-cost fears
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 9, 2026, USB was $63.94. We expect it to be $61.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $52.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 9, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.