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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 2, 2026
20 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 2, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 16 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -26 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 45 · Value -84 · Sentiment -39 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $94.14 vs $241.57 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Vertiv Holdings Co

VRT NYSE
Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts
Westerville, OH 43082, United States vertiv.com Updated Aug 2, 11:32pm
Price
$241.57
Market Cap
$93.0B
Employees
34,000
Beta
2.03
Avg Volume
6,944,743
Last Dividend
$0.23
CEO
Mr. Giordano Albertazzi

Vertiv Holdings Co is a global provider of critical digital infrastructure and related services for data centers, communication networks, and a broad range of commercial and industrial environments. The company focuses on ensuring reliable power, thermal management, and intelligent control systems that support always-on digital applications such as cloud computing, e-commerce, online banking, and telecommunications. Vertiv’s portfolio includes AC and DC power management solutions, switchgear and busbar systems, thermal management equipment, integrated rack systems, modular data center solutions, and software and management platforms for monitoring and controlling infrastructure. It also delivers lifecycle services including deployment support, preventive maintenance, remote monitoring, predictive analytics, and consulting to optimize critical systems. Vertiv serves customers across sectors such as cloud services, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, energy, government, and retail through direct sales, channel partners, and OEM relationships. Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Westerville, Ohio, Vertiv plays a central role in supporting the reliability and efficiency of modern digital and industrial operations worldwide.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 2, 2026 11:40pm
Price Overview
Price at report time
$241.57
as of Aug 2, 11:50pm (20d ago)
Change · Aug 2
+14.07 (+6.18%)
Day Range
$233.17 – $251.71
52-Week Range
$118.70 – $379.94
50-Day MA
$305.74
200-Day MA
$246.31
Volume
10,837,600.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 20d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 384,936,985.00
Float 378,616,619.00
Free Float 98.4%
High free float — 98.4% of shares trade freely, ~1.6% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:50pm (20d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:50pm (20d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 2, 2026 11:38pm
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
70.84
Stock Price: $241.57
EPS (Diluted): 3.41
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
23.94
Stock Price: $241.57
Total Equity: $3.94B
Shares: 390,652,824
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
44.04
Market Cap: $92.99B
Total Debt: $2.91B
Cash: $1.73B
EBITDA: $2.14B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$94.2B
Market Cap: $92.99B
Total Debt: $2.91B
Cash: $1.73B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
36.3%
Gross Profit: $3.72B
Revenue: $10.23B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
17.9%
Operating Income: $1.83B
Revenue: $10.23B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
13.0%
Net Income: $1.33B
Revenue: $10.23B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
33.8%
Net Income: $1.33B
Total Equity: $3.94B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
27.3%
Operating Income: $1.83B
Tax Rate: 23.5%
Equity: $3.94B
Total Debt: $2.91B
Cash: $1.73B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.55
Current Assets: $6.82B
Current Liabilities: $4.41B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.74
Short-Term Debt: $20.90M
Long-Term Debt: $2.89B
Total Debt: $2.91B
Total Equity: $3.94B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$26.19
Revenue: $10.23B
Shares: 390,652,824
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$10.09
Total Equity: $3.94B
Shares: 390,652,824
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$4.85
Operating CF: $2.11B
CapEx: -$220.00M
Shares: 390,652,824
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.1%
Last Dividend: $0.23
Stock Price: $241.57
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
5.0%
Dividends Paid: -$66.60M
Net Income: $1.33B
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 2, 2026 11:38pm
Compares VRT against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:50pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $5.0B $5.7B $6.9B $8.0B $10.2B
Cost of Revenue $3.5B $4.1B $4.5B $5.1B $6.5B
Gross Profit $1.5B $1.6B $2.4B $2.9B $3.7B
Operating Expenses $1.3B $1.4B $1.5B $1.6B $1.9B
Operating Income $259.9M $223.4M $872.2M $1.4B $1.8B
Net Income $119.6M $76.6M $460.2M $495.8M $1.3B
EBITDA $486.9M $525.8M $1.1B $1.6B $2.1B
EPS $0.34 $0.20 $1.21 $1.32 $3.49
EPS (Diluted) $0.33 $-0.04 $1.19 $1.28 $3.41
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:32pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $439.1M $260.6M $780.4M $1.2B $1.7B
Total Current Assets $2.7B $3.2B $4.0B $5.1B $6.8B
Total Assets $6.9B $7.1B $8.0B $9.1B $12.2B
Current Liabilities $1.9B $1.9B $2.3B $3.1B $4.4B
Long-Term Debt $3.0B $3.2B $2.9B $2.9B $2.9B
Total Liabilities $5.5B $5.7B $6.0B $6.7B $8.3B
Total Equity $1.4B $1.4B $2.0B $2.4B $3.9B
Retained Earnings -$1.2B -$1.1B -$691.9M -$238.3M $1.0B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:50pm (20d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $210.9M -$152.8M $900.5M $1.3B $2.1B
Capital Expenditure -$73.4M -$100.0M -$127.9M -$167.0M -$220.0M
Free Cash Flow $137.5M -$252.8M $772.6M $1.2B $1.9B
Acquisitions (net) -$1.2B -$5.0M -$28.8M -$17.6M -$1.2B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $850.0M $0 $0
Dividends Paid -$3.8M -$3.8M -$9.5M -$42.2M -$66.6M
Stock Buybacks $0 $0 -$599.9M $0
Net Change in Cash -$95.5M -$173.9M $515.4M $443.6M $557.6M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:50pm (20d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +13.9% +20.6% +16.7% +27.7%
Gross Profit Growth +6.1% +48.5% +22.2% +26.6%
Operating Income Growth -14.0% +290.4% +56.8% +33.8%
Net Income Growth -36.0% +500.8% +7.7% +168.8%
EBITDA Growth +8.0% +117.4% +43.8% +30.0%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:33pm (20d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-15 $0.06
2026-03-17 $0.06
2025-11-25 $0.06
2025-09-15 $0.04
2025-06-16 $0.04
2025-03-18 $0.04
2024-12-03 $0.04
2024-09-17 $0.03
2024-06-17 $0.03
2024-03-18 $0.03
2023-12-08 $0.03
2022-11-29 $0.01
2021-11-30 $0.01
2020-12-01 $0.01
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:16
-0.8 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 61% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 80%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($241.57)
Bull — recovery +45% 17.4% $93.60 -61%
Base — stabilizes +30% 15.1% $56.43 -77%
Bear — keeps slipping +15% 12.8% $32.79 -86%
Stress — last quarter repeats +23% 15.6% $47.92 -80%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-12-31) — growth stays at 22.7% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×1.03). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +26.7% · operating income +47.0% · net income +81.7% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Dec 31, 2025 (revenue +22.7%, operating income +26.8% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for VRT — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-02 23:49:34
Verdict Overvalued but not catastrophically so — fair value $130-160, not the synthesis's $82-93; trim/avoid at $242, revisit under $170, and watch Q2'26 for confirmation the Q1 sequential dip wasn't seasonal.

The raw trajectory is genuinely spectacular: quarterly revenue moved from $1.95B (Q2'24) to $2.88B (Q4'25) with net margin roughly doubling from 9.1% to 15.5% over six quarters. Annual net income went $76M → $460M → $496M → $1.33B across 2022-2025 — a 17x in three years. FCF of $1.89B on $10.23B revenue is 18.5% conversion, and the balance sheet is clean (net debt ~$1.2B, well under 1x EBITDA). ROIC of 27% on a manufacturing-adjacent business is exceptional. This is not a story stock in the sense of unprofitable hype — the fundamentals are real and inflecting hard. But the most recent print (Q1'26 at $2.65B) is a sequential decline from Q4'25's $2.88B, and NI dropped from $446M to $390M. Seasonality? Probably partly. But the "decelerating" tag in revenue confidence is warranted — YoY growth was 27.7% recently versus the 40%+ implied trajectory earlier in 2025.

At $241.57, VRT trades at 70x trailing earnings, 9.2x sales, 44x EBITDA, and roughly 49x trailing FCF. For that multiple to make sense, you need revenue compounding at ~20%+ for another 4-5 years AND margins holding above 15%. The synthesis's $82 DCF anchor with $93 signal-adjusted looks aggressive on the downside — it likely under-weights the near-term FCF ramp (FCF grew 56% CAGR and is $1.89B run-rating higher). A less punishing frame: if 2027 FCF hits $2.8-3.0B (plausible at 20% growth + modest margin expansion) and you slap a 30x multiple on it (rich but defensible for a category leader), you get ~$85-90B market cap — below today's $93B. So even generously, the stock is priced at or slightly above a bullish 2027 outcome. Fair value in the $140-170 range on a reasonable-bull case, $80-95 on the DCF anchor. Current $242 requires the bullish case AND multiple persistence. That's two things going right.

Where I push back on the models: the thesis eval's -8 score feels too balanced given the asymmetry. Bull case gets you maybe +30-40% upside to ~$320 if AI capex extends and margins expand another 200bps; bear case is a re-rating to 30-35x earnings which is a 50%+ drawdown to $100-120. That's not symmetric. The market-forces "neutral" label understates this. Also, the platform-monopoly narrative archetype is generous — Vertiv sells power/thermal hardware into a market where Schneider, Eaton, and increasingly custom hyperscaler solutions compete. Switching costs exist but hyperscaler concentration (top 5 customers likely >40% of AI-related revenue) means pricing power is a two-way street. The liquid cooling build-vs-buy risk cited as the top bear is real: if Meta/Microsoft/Google in-source cooling designs and treat Vertiv as a contract manufacturer, gross margins compress from 36% back toward 25%. The insider "unusual selling" flag with only tiny award grants shown is data-thin — the raw file doesn't show the actual sells, so I'd want to verify magnitude before weighting heavily.

A careful contrarian would note: (1) Q1'26 already shows sequential softness, (2) the 168% earnings YoY comparison is against a depressed Q1'25 base of $164M — the easy comps end now, (3) at 15.5% net margin Vertiv is already at or near best-in-class for electrical equipment (Eaton runs 15-16%, Schneider ~12%), so margin expansion from here is fighting gravity, (4) the multiple contraction risk is severe — a re-rate from 70x to 40x (still a growth multiple) is -43% with zero earnings miss. The bull needs both numerator growth AND denominator stability; the bear only needs one to crack. I agree with the synthesis direction but think $82 fair value is too harsh and $242 is too rich — real fair value is probably $130-160 on a probability-weighted basis. I'd dissent slightly on magnitude but agree on direction: this is overvalued, just not by 62%. More like 35-45%.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-02 23:49:48
Verdict Overvalued at $241.57 — the business is excellent, but a fairer range is closer to $150-$180 unless Vertiv proves it can sustain 20%+ growth and ~18% operating margins from here.

Vertiv’s underlying business has genuinely transformed, and that matters more than a lazy “industrial at 70x earnings” dismissal. Revenue has gone from $5.0B in 2021 to $10.23B in 2025, a clean doubling in four years, while operating income exploded from $260M to $1.83B. The bigger tell is margin shape: gross margin improved from 30.4% in 2021 to 36.3% in 2025, operating margin from 5.2% to 17.9%, and net margin from 2.4% to 13.0%. Quarterly progression reinforces that this is not just accounting noise: Q1 2025 revenue was $2.04B with 8.1% net margin, and by Q1 2026 revenue reached $2.65B with 14.7% net margin. That is 29.9% year-over-year revenue growth and a 137% increase in net income in the latest quarter. Free cash flow of $1.89B on $10.23B of sales is also serious cash conversion for a company supplying mission-critical power and thermal infrastructure into a constrained, high-priority build cycle. Net debt is only about $1.18B, so the balance sheet is no longer the story; execution is.

The market, however, is not valuing execution, it is valuing continuation of near-perfect conditions. At $241.57, the stock trades around 9.2x sales, 44x EV/EBITDA, 70.8x trailing earnings, and nearly 24x book. Those are software-like multiples being paid for a hardware-and-systems business, even one currently enjoying exceptional pricing, mix, and demand. On 2025 numbers, the equity is capitalized at roughly 91-93B against $1.33B of net income and $1.89B of FCF; even using free cash flow, that is about a 2.0% yield. To justify that cleanly, Vertiv likely needs to keep compounding revenue at something like 20%+ from a $10B base while holding or further expanding margins that have already moved dramatically. That is a very high bar in a market where large customers are sophisticated buyers and where extraordinary demand in AI infrastructure can easily pull forward orders. The raw data says the business is excellent; the valuation says the business must remain exceptional for years with very little cyclicality.

What stands out to me is that the numbers support a premium, but not this premium. If I annualize the latest quarter, I get roughly $10.6B revenue and $1.56B net income; that still leaves the stock around 60x run-rate earnings. Even if 2026 earnings reach $1.8B-$2.0B, investors are still paying roughly 46x-52x forward earnings for an electrical equipment company whose recent margin gains have been enormous already. That makes the asymmetry poor. When a company moves from 6.3% net margin in Q4 2024 to 15.5% in Q4 2025, the business deserves credit, but investors should also ask how much further operating leverage is realistically available before competition, input costs, and customer concentration lean back against it. The stock price implies Vertiv is not just an AI beneficiary, but one of the most durable and scarce beneficiaries in the entire infrastructure stack. The financials prove scarcity today; they do not prove scarcity through the cycle.

The strongest pushback is that I may be underestimating how structurally different this demand wave is. If compute density is permanently rising and cooling/power architecture is becoming more complex, then Vertiv may deserve to trade less like an industrial OEM and more like a critical enabler with embedded engineering value. The latest year-over-year growth rates are not trivial bursts: 2025 revenue grew 27.7% over 2024, net income nearly tripled from $495.8M to $1.33B, ROIC is 27.3%, and operating cash flow exceeded net income by a wide margin at $2.11B. That combination usually signals a company in the middle of a real quality re-rating, not a fleeting fad. If service attachment, software controls, and high-density thermal products increase mix over time, today’s multiple could compress faster than expected through earnings growth rather than through price decline alone. I take that seriously; I just think the stock is already discounting most of that argument.

What would change my mind is not another strong quarter by itself, but evidence that the current valuation can be grown into. Specifically, I’d want to see 2026 revenue sustain above roughly $11.8B-$12.0B with operating margin at or above 18%, and free cash flow clear $2.2B without working-capital distortion. If Vertiv can do that while showing that quarterly growth is not decelerating from the high-20s into the teens, the “too expensive” case weakens materially. Conversely, if revenue growth slips toward the mid-teens or margins flatten around the current level, the multiple has a long way to fall even if the business remains very good. My read is simple: this is an outstanding company priced as if the next five years are already visible and nearly flawless.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-02 23:50:18
Verdict Overvalued at $242 — elite AI-infra executor but 71x earnings / 9x sales prices perfection; fair value nearer $90–130

The numbers describe a genuine operating transformation, not a narrative mirage. Vertiv took revenue from $5.0B in 2021 to $10.23B in 2025 while expanding operating margin from roughly 5% to 17.9% and net margin to 13.0%; net income scaled from $76.6M in 2022 to $1.33B. Free cash flow of $1.89B on only $220M of capex is capital-light excellence, and ROIC of 27.3% with ROE of 33.8% confirms the returns are real. Recent quarters show the step-up is still intact: the four quarters through Q1 2026 delivered roughly $10.85B of revenue run-rate with net margins locked in the mid-teens (14.7–15.5%), versus mid-single digits two years earlier. Debt of $2.91B against $1.73B cash and $2.11B of operating cash flow is manageable. This is a high-quality industrial that has earned its growth credentials on the back of AI data-center power and thermal demand.

The price, however, has left the fundamentals far behind. At $241.57 the stock trades at 71x earnings, 9.2x sales, 44x EV/EBITDA and roughly 49x free cash flow on a $93B enterprise. Those multiples imply the market is capitalizing not the $1.33B of 2025 earnings or the $1.89B of FCF already achieved, but a multi-year trajectory in which Vertiv sustains 25%+ revenue growth and further margin expansion from a $10B base—effectively pricing a path toward $30–40B of revenue and several billion of incremental FCF without competitive or cyclical interruption. The valuation synthesis anchoring intrinsic value near $93 is directionally correct: even generous 20% earnings CAGRs for five years still leave the stock needing a permanent 40x+ multiple to justify today’s price. Sequential revenue already showed a seasonal step-down from $2.88B in Q4 2025 to $2.65B in Q1 2026, and the secondary signals flag decelerating quarterly trends plus unusual insider selling—precisely the early warning signs that growth is being fully capitalized while risks are ignored.

The strongest counter-argument is simply the durability and visibility of the AI infrastructure supercycle itself. Hyperscaler capex guides remain elevated, liquid cooling and high-density power are structural rather than cyclical requirements, and Vertiv’s backlog conversion plus services mix have already delivered 168% earnings growth year-over-year and a 56% FCF CAGR. A bull can fairly claim that 27% recent revenue growth and 36% gross margins give the company pricing power that traditional industrial comps lack, so a 9x sales multiple is the wrong frame; the right frame is a scarce pure-play compounder that can grow into a mid-teens earnings multiple on much larger absolute profits. That case is not frivolous—execution has been exceptional and the end-market is real—but it still requires the company to compound FCF at roughly 30%+ for the better part of a decade with no multiple compression, an outcome the data do not yet guarantee and that customer concentration and potential hyperscaler in-sourcing (especially on liquid cooling) actively threaten.

I would reverse to a neutral or constructive stance only if the next two reported quarters show revenue re-accelerating above 30% year-over-year with operating margins pushing through 20%, accompanied by explicit multi-year backlog disclosures that de-risk the 2027–2028 revenue bridge, or if the stock corrected into the $140–160 range where the multiple began to discount more realistic mid-teens growth.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-02 23:56:24
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality — pass at $242, patient bid under $150 8/10
Vertiv is a genuinely strong business (+45 quality) trading at a price-for-perfection multiple (-84 value) that just got its first real narrative crack (-39 sentiment) — great company, wrong price, worsening tape.
The cruxWhether the AI-infrastructure capex cycle sustains 20%+ growth and ~18% margins long enough to grow into a multiple that already assumes it does — the July earnings miss is the first data point saying maybe not.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from VRT's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionModerate Dilution
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+45
Strong
edge √Σ 121 · risk √Σ 72 · conf 8/10

The trajectory is striking: revenue compounded from $5.00B in 2021 to $10.23B in 2025 (roughly 20% CAGR), operating margin expanded from 5.2% to 17.9%, and net income scaled from $120M to $1.33B. FCF followed cleanly - from a $253M outflow in 2022 to $1.89B in 2025 - with OCF/NI of 1.19x, accruals of -3.8% of assets, Beneish M of -2.44, and Altman Z of 8.43. The mechanical checks show no earnings-quality flags; cash is genuinely being produced, not manufactured through accruals. Balance sheet is the softer spot: $1.73B liquid cash against net debt of $1.18B. That is not distress given $1.89B annual FCF (debt could be extinguished in under a year of FCF), but it means the balance sheet is a working constraint, not a fortress cushion. Dilution is moderate but persistent - diluted share count crept from 360M to 391M (~2.1% CAGR) despite buybacks running 391% of SBC, meaning gross issuance still outpaces the retirement pace on a net-share basis. SBC is a modest 0.5% of revenue. Insider tape shows only awards and tax-withholding F codes in the recent window - no open-market P or S transactions in the raw slice provided - though the context module flags 48 sells worth $97M over 12 months, which is worth tracking but not alarming given the run-up. Overall this reads as a well-run operator executing on a powerful demand cycle, with real operating leverage (GM 30.5% to 36.3%, OpM tripling) rather than accounting sleight of hand.

Strengths 3
m78
Operating leverage is real and cash-backed
OpM expanded from 5.2% (2021) to 17.9% (2025) while FCF went from $138M to $1.89B - OCF/NI of 1.19x confirms earnings convert to cash.
m70
Clean earnings-quality signals
Beneish M -2.44, Altman Z 8.43 (safe zone), accruals -3.8% of assets - no manipulation flags in the mechanical screens.
m60
Revenue doubled in four years with margin expansion
Revenue $5.0B to $10.2B (2021-2025) alongside GM lift from 30.5% to 36.3% - demand and pricing power both present.
Concerns 4
m45
Net debt position, not net cash
Net debt of $1.18B against $1.73B liquid cash; manageable against $1.89B FCF but leaves the balance sheet as a constraint rather than a cushion.
m40
Persistent 2.1% annual dilution
Diluted shares grew 360M to 391M despite buybacks at 391% of SBC - net per-share creep continues to erode compounding.
m30
Unusual insider selling pattern flagged
Context module reports 48 sells / $97M over 12 months with zero buys - deviates from historical norms; raw slice shown only contains awards/F-codes so magnitude/timing needs filing verification.
m25
Cyclical/demand-cycle exposure
The margin and revenue step-up coincides with the AI/data-center capex wave - durability of 17.9% OpM through a capex downcycle is unproven in this dataset.
This is a genuinely well-run industrial cash generator caught in the right cycle - the earnings quality checks are clean, cash conversion is strong, and operating leverage has shown up in the P&L rather than being promised. I do not have concerns about the numbers being real. What keeps me from calling it a fortress is the mundane stuff: it carries net debt, it dilutes shareholders about 2% a year, and the current margin structure has only existed for about two years - riding a demand wave I cannot verify is structural from this data. Strong business, not yet a proven all-weather one. The insider selling pattern warrants a look at Form 4 detail but is not disqualifying on its own.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • 10-K debt maturity schedule and covenant terms behind the $1.18B net debt position
  • Customer concentration - hyperscaler exposure and top-customer % of revenue given the AI/data-center-driven ramp
  • Nature of the 48 insider sells (10b5-1 plan vs discretionary) and whether they cluster around specific executives
  • Backlog/orders disclosure to gauge durability of the 20%+ growth rate
  • Composition of buybacks vs SBC - whether the 391% ratio reflects true net share retirement or offsets a warrant/convert overhang
  • Segment margin detail to see if the OpM lift is broad-based or concentrated in one product line
Valuation / Mispricing
-84
Overvalued
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 143 · conf 8/10
Price $241.57 vs deserved ~$90-135 depending on method; stock is ~80-165% above fair value - no margin of safety. attractive below $135.00

Every valuation method points the same direction: composite FV $82.45, signal-adjusted FV $92.80, DCF $60.31, EPV floor $22.44, and even the most generous anchored-PE lens only reaches $134.39. Against a $241.57 price and ~$93B market cap, the gap is not subtle - the market is paying roughly 1.8x to 4x deserved value depending on the method. The anchored-PE at $134 is the fairest bull-case benchmark and the price still sits ~80% above it. Company quality is genuinely strong (score 45, clean earnings), which justifies a premium to DCF - but not a doubling of it. The narrative is doing the work here: the price embeds a multi-year hyperscaler capex supercycle with sustained 20%+ ROIC and no margin give-back. That is plausible, not certain, and it is fully in the tape. Earnings quality is high so I will not haircut further, but I also cannot manufacture upside from a clean P&L when the multiple already assumes the good outcome. Margin of safety is negative; this is a price-for-perfection setup where any AI capex wobble, hyperscaler pricing pushback, or execution miss re-rates the multiple hard.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Quality justifies some premium to DCF
Strong quality grade (45), clean earnings, and strong cash conversion mean deserved value sits above the $60 DCF - but not near $240.
Rich / priced-in 5
m78
Price roughly 2.6x composite fair value
$241.57 vs composite FV $82.45 and signal-adjusted $92.80 implies -62% downside on the blended read; even generous methods leave a large gap.
m70
Above even the anchored-PE bull case
Anchored-PE fair value is $134.39 - the most generous of the three methods - and the stock still trades ~80% above it.
m72
Priced for a flawless AI capex decade
At ~2.6x sales and 4x DCF, the price requires sustained hyperscaler spend, no margin compression, and continued share gains - the bull case is fully embedded.
m55
EPV floor implies enormous downside cushion is absent
EPV of $22.44 shows how little of today's price is supported by current earning power alone; ~90% of the market cap is growth optionality.
m35
Levered balance sheet and ~2% annual dilution
Net debt and steady share issuance reduce the equity claim on future cash flows, further pressuring the deserved multiple.
This is a great business at a bad price. I like the company, the numbers are real, and the cycle is genuine - but I am being asked to pay ~$240 for something every method I trust values between $60 and $135. That is not a mispricing in my favor; it is the market pricing in the bull case with no room for error. I would need to see it in the $120-140 range before the risk-reward turns interesting, and even then I would want to see whether AI capex is still accelerating. Today it is a pass on valuation, full stop.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Forward hyperscaler capex guidance and Vertiv's book-to-bill trend in the next two quarters
  • Segment margin trajectory - whether operating leverage is peaking or still expanding
  • Any commentary on pricing concessions to large customers
  • Free cash flow conversion vs GAAP earnings and buyback vs dilution net effect
General Sentiment
-39
Headwind
tail √Σ 76 · head √Σ 118 · conf 7/10

VRT is a platform-monopoly narrative stock (AI data-center backbone) that just took a real hit to its story: revenue missed on July 29 and the stock crashed 17% in a single session, down 24% over four weeks. That is exactly the kind of event that dents narrative durability - the story is not broken, but the 'flawless execution' premium the market was paying is now being questioned, and with beta at 2.03 any wobble in the tape amplifies into this name. News flow is genuinely mixed: bulls are pointing to Big Tech's $750B AI capex plans and analyst estimate revisions higher, bears have a fresh miss to point at, and technicals show an oversold bounce setup. The macro tape is only mildly supportive (regime +22, VIX 16, but 10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 punish long-duration growth stories exactly like this one). For a name where roughly 60% of the price is pure narrative premium, a nascent neutral tape does not offer enough cover to offset a fresh narrative crack. Net: the pressure leans negative, but not decisively - the AI-capex secular story is still intact enough that this is a headwind, not a rout.

Tailwinds 3
m55
AI capex narrative still intact sector-wide
Big Tech AI spend >$750B for 2026 and continued hyperscaler build-out keep the structural bull story alive; VRT is still named as a primary beneficiary in sector pieces.
m40
Analyst tone constructive post-print
Estimate revisions are reportedly higher and management raised full-year 2026 guidance, giving bulls something concrete to defend the stock with.
m35
Oversold bounce setup
Technically oversold after -24% in 4 weeks; short-term mean-reversion flow can mute further downside even if the medium-term pressure stays negative.
Headwinds 4
m72
Earnings-day narrative crack
A 17% single-day drop on a revenue miss is a material dent to a platform-monopoly story priced for perfection; the market is now demanding proof, not paying for belief.
m60
High beta into a neutral-not-friendly tape
Beta 2.03 means any tape wobble hits 2x; with S&P -1.6% off highs and VIX ticking up, this name has no defensive ballast.
m55
Long-duration growth vs 4.68% 10y
A 60% narrative premium capitalizes distant cash flows; rates near cycle highs and a 26.9 market PE are structurally hostile to exactly this profile.
m45
Momentum roll-over
Down 24% in four weeks flips the trend read; prior +22% CAGR strength is now working against holders who are underwater on recent adds.
The story here just took its first real punch in a while, and on a 2.03-beta name where 60% of the price is narrative, that matters. The AI-infrastructure thesis is not dead - Big Tech capex numbers still validate it - but the market has shifted from paying for belief to demanding proof, and the neutral tape with 10y at 4.68% offers no shelter. I read this as a genuine headwind, not a rout: enough bull ammunition (raised guide, capex tailwind, oversold) to prevent capitulation, but the burden of proof has flipped and the pressure leans down until VRT delivers a clean quarter.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Whether the next data point (hyperscaler capex commentary, orders, backlog) reinforces or contradicts the Q2 revenue miss
  • Analyst target revisions in the two weeks post-print - are cuts stopping or accelerating
  • Whether AI-infrastructure cohort (peers in power/cooling) trades in sympathy or VRT is being singled out
  • 10y yield direction - a move back below 4.4% would materially relieve long-duration pressure
  • Follow-through on the oversold bounce vs failure to reclaim key moving averages
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06