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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Vertiv Holdings Co (VRT) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -26 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 45 · Value -84 · Sentiment -39 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $94.14 vs $241.57 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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Vertiv Holdings Co
VRT NYSEVertiv Holdings Co is a global provider of critical digital infrastructure and related services for data centers, communication networks, and a broad range of commercial and industrial environments. The company focuses on ensuring reliable power, thermal management, and intelligent control systems that support always-on digital applications such as cloud computing, e-commerce, online banking, and telecommunications. Vertiv’s portfolio includes AC and DC power management solutions, switchgear and busbar systems, thermal management equipment, integrated rack systems, modular data center solutions, and software and management platforms for monitoring and controlling infrastructure. It also delivers lifecycle services including deployment support, preventive maintenance, remote monitoring, predictive analytics, and consulting to optimize critical systems. Vertiv serves customers across sectors such as cloud services, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, energy, government, and retail through direct sales, channel partners, and OEM relationships. Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Westerville, Ohio, Vertiv plays a central role in supporting the reliability and efficiency of modern digital and industrial operations worldwide.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 3.41
Total Equity: $3.94B
Shares: 390,652,824
Total Debt: $2.91B
Cash: $1.73B
EBITDA: $2.14B
Total Debt: $2.91B
Cash: $1.73B
Revenue: $10.23B
Revenue: $10.23B
Revenue: $10.23B
Total Equity: $3.94B
Tax Rate: 23.5%
Equity: $3.94B
Total Debt: $2.91B
Cash: $1.73B
Current Liabilities: $4.41B
Long-Term Debt: $2.89B
Total Debt: $2.91B
Total Equity: $3.94B
Shares: 390,652,824
Shares: 390,652,824
CapEx: -$220.00M
Shares: 390,652,824
Stock Price: $241.57
Net Income: $1.33B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:50pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0B | $5.7B | $6.9B | $8.0B | $10.2B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.5B | $4.1B | $4.5B | $5.1B | $6.5B |
| Gross Profit | $1.5B | $1.6B | $2.4B | $2.9B | $3.7B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.3B | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.9B |
| Operating Income | $259.9M | $223.4M | $872.2M | $1.4B | $1.8B |
| Net Income | $119.6M | $76.6M | $460.2M | $495.8M | $1.3B |
| EBITDA | $486.9M | $525.8M | $1.1B | $1.6B | $2.1B |
| EPS | $0.34 | $0.20 | $1.21 | $1.32 | $3.49 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.33 | $-0.04 | $1.19 | $1.28 | $3.41 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:32pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $439.1M | $260.6M | $780.4M | $1.2B | $1.7B |
| Total Current Assets | $2.7B | $3.2B | $4.0B | $5.1B | $6.8B |
| Total Assets | $6.9B | $7.1B | $8.0B | $9.1B | $12.2B |
| Current Liabilities | $1.9B | $1.9B | $2.3B | $3.1B | $4.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $3.0B | $3.2B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $2.9B |
| Total Liabilities | $5.5B | $5.7B | $6.0B | $6.7B | $8.3B |
| Total Equity | $1.4B | $1.4B | $2.0B | $2.4B | $3.9B |
| Retained Earnings | -$1.2B | -$1.1B | -$691.9M | -$238.3M | $1.0B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:50pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $210.9M | -$152.8M | $900.5M | $1.3B | $2.1B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$73.4M | -$100.0M | -$127.9M | -$167.0M | -$220.0M |
| Free Cash Flow | $137.5M | -$252.8M | $772.6M | $1.2B | $1.9B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$1.2B | -$5.0M | -$28.8M | -$17.6M | -$1.2B |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $850.0M | $0 | $0 | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$3.8M | -$3.8M | -$9.5M | -$42.2M | -$66.6M |
| Stock Buybacks | — | $0 | $0 | -$599.9M | $0 |
| Net Change in Cash | -$95.5M | -$173.9M | $515.4M | $443.6M | $557.6M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:50pm (20d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +13.9% | +20.6% | +16.7% | +27.7% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +6.1% | +48.5% | +22.2% | +26.6% |
| Operating Income Growth | -14.0% | +290.4% | +56.8% | +33.8% |
| Net Income Growth | -36.0% | +500.8% | +7.7% | +168.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | +8.0% | +117.4% | +43.8% | +30.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 2, 2026 11:33pm (20d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-17 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-25 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-16 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-03 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-17 | $0.03 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-17 | $0.03 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-18 | $0.03 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-08 | $0.03 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-29 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-30 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-01 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:16Even the bull case prices 61% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 80%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($241.57) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +45% | 17.4% | $93.60 | -61% |
| Base — stabilizes | +30% | 15.1% | $56.43 | -77% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +15% | 12.8% | $32.79 | -86% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +23% | 15.6% | $47.92 | -80% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw trajectory is genuinely spectacular: quarterly revenue moved from $1.95B (Q2'24) to $2.88B (Q4'25) with net margin roughly doubling from 9.1% to 15.5% over six quarters. Annual net income went $76M → $460M → $496M → $1.33B across 2022-2025 — a 17x in three years. FCF of $1.89B on $10.23B revenue is 18.5% conversion, and the balance sheet is clean (net debt ~$1.2B, well under 1x EBITDA). ROIC of 27% on a manufacturing-adjacent business is exceptional. This is not a story stock in the sense of unprofitable hype — the fundamentals are real and inflecting hard. But the most recent print (Q1'26 at $2.65B) is a sequential decline from Q4'25's $2.88B, and NI dropped from $446M to $390M. Seasonality? Probably partly. But the "decelerating" tag in revenue confidence is warranted — YoY growth was 27.7% recently versus the 40%+ implied trajectory earlier in 2025.
At $241.57, VRT trades at 70x trailing earnings, 9.2x sales, 44x EBITDA, and roughly 49x trailing FCF. For that multiple to make sense, you need revenue compounding at ~20%+ for another 4-5 years AND margins holding above 15%. The synthesis's $82 DCF anchor with $93 signal-adjusted looks aggressive on the downside — it likely under-weights the near-term FCF ramp (FCF grew 56% CAGR and is $1.89B run-rating higher). A less punishing frame: if 2027 FCF hits $2.8-3.0B (plausible at 20% growth + modest margin expansion) and you slap a 30x multiple on it (rich but defensible for a category leader), you get ~$85-90B market cap — below today's $93B. So even generously, the stock is priced at or slightly above a bullish 2027 outcome. Fair value in the $140-170 range on a reasonable-bull case, $80-95 on the DCF anchor. Current $242 requires the bullish case AND multiple persistence. That's two things going right.
Where I push back on the models: the thesis eval's -8 score feels too balanced given the asymmetry. Bull case gets you maybe +30-40% upside to ~$320 if AI capex extends and margins expand another 200bps; bear case is a re-rating to 30-35x earnings which is a 50%+ drawdown to $100-120. That's not symmetric. The market-forces "neutral" label understates this. Also, the platform-monopoly narrative archetype is generous — Vertiv sells power/thermal hardware into a market where Schneider, Eaton, and increasingly custom hyperscaler solutions compete. Switching costs exist but hyperscaler concentration (top 5 customers likely >40% of AI-related revenue) means pricing power is a two-way street. The liquid cooling build-vs-buy risk cited as the top bear is real: if Meta/Microsoft/Google in-source cooling designs and treat Vertiv as a contract manufacturer, gross margins compress from 36% back toward 25%. The insider "unusual selling" flag with only tiny award grants shown is data-thin — the raw file doesn't show the actual sells, so I'd want to verify magnitude before weighting heavily.
A careful contrarian would note: (1) Q1'26 already shows sequential softness, (2) the 168% earnings YoY comparison is against a depressed Q1'25 base of $164M — the easy comps end now, (3) at 15.5% net margin Vertiv is already at or near best-in-class for electrical equipment (Eaton runs 15-16%, Schneider ~12%), so margin expansion from here is fighting gravity, (4) the multiple contraction risk is severe — a re-rate from 70x to 40x (still a growth multiple) is -43% with zero earnings miss. The bull needs both numerator growth AND denominator stability; the bear only needs one to crack. I agree with the synthesis direction but think $82 fair value is too harsh and $242 is too rich — real fair value is probably $130-160 on a probability-weighted basis. I'd dissent slightly on magnitude but agree on direction: this is overvalued, just not by 62%. More like 35-45%.
GPT Reading
Vertiv’s underlying business has genuinely transformed, and that matters more than a lazy “industrial at 70x earnings” dismissal. Revenue has gone from $5.0B in 2021 to $10.23B in 2025, a clean doubling in four years, while operating income exploded from $260M to $1.83B. The bigger tell is margin shape: gross margin improved from 30.4% in 2021 to 36.3% in 2025, operating margin from 5.2% to 17.9%, and net margin from 2.4% to 13.0%. Quarterly progression reinforces that this is not just accounting noise: Q1 2025 revenue was $2.04B with 8.1% net margin, and by Q1 2026 revenue reached $2.65B with 14.7% net margin. That is 29.9% year-over-year revenue growth and a 137% increase in net income in the latest quarter. Free cash flow of $1.89B on $10.23B of sales is also serious cash conversion for a company supplying mission-critical power and thermal infrastructure into a constrained, high-priority build cycle. Net debt is only about $1.18B, so the balance sheet is no longer the story; execution is.
The market, however, is not valuing execution, it is valuing continuation of near-perfect conditions. At $241.57, the stock trades around 9.2x sales, 44x EV/EBITDA, 70.8x trailing earnings, and nearly 24x book. Those are software-like multiples being paid for a hardware-and-systems business, even one currently enjoying exceptional pricing, mix, and demand. On 2025 numbers, the equity is capitalized at roughly 91-93B against $1.33B of net income and $1.89B of FCF; even using free cash flow, that is about a 2.0% yield. To justify that cleanly, Vertiv likely needs to keep compounding revenue at something like 20%+ from a $10B base while holding or further expanding margins that have already moved dramatically. That is a very high bar in a market where large customers are sophisticated buyers and where extraordinary demand in AI infrastructure can easily pull forward orders. The raw data says the business is excellent; the valuation says the business must remain exceptional for years with very little cyclicality.
What stands out to me is that the numbers support a premium, but not this premium. If I annualize the latest quarter, I get roughly $10.6B revenue and $1.56B net income; that still leaves the stock around 60x run-rate earnings. Even if 2026 earnings reach $1.8B-$2.0B, investors are still paying roughly 46x-52x forward earnings for an electrical equipment company whose recent margin gains have been enormous already. That makes the asymmetry poor. When a company moves from 6.3% net margin in Q4 2024 to 15.5% in Q4 2025, the business deserves credit, but investors should also ask how much further operating leverage is realistically available before competition, input costs, and customer concentration lean back against it. The stock price implies Vertiv is not just an AI beneficiary, but one of the most durable and scarce beneficiaries in the entire infrastructure stack. The financials prove scarcity today; they do not prove scarcity through the cycle.
The strongest pushback is that I may be underestimating how structurally different this demand wave is. If compute density is permanently rising and cooling/power architecture is becoming more complex, then Vertiv may deserve to trade less like an industrial OEM and more like a critical enabler with embedded engineering value. The latest year-over-year growth rates are not trivial bursts: 2025 revenue grew 27.7% over 2024, net income nearly tripled from $495.8M to $1.33B, ROIC is 27.3%, and operating cash flow exceeded net income by a wide margin at $2.11B. That combination usually signals a company in the middle of a real quality re-rating, not a fleeting fad. If service attachment, software controls, and high-density thermal products increase mix over time, today’s multiple could compress faster than expected through earnings growth rather than through price decline alone. I take that seriously; I just think the stock is already discounting most of that argument.
What would change my mind is not another strong quarter by itself, but evidence that the current valuation can be grown into. Specifically, I’d want to see 2026 revenue sustain above roughly $11.8B-$12.0B with operating margin at or above 18%, and free cash flow clear $2.2B without working-capital distortion. If Vertiv can do that while showing that quarterly growth is not decelerating from the high-20s into the teens, the “too expensive” case weakens materially. Conversely, if revenue growth slips toward the mid-teens or margins flatten around the current level, the multiple has a long way to fall even if the business remains very good. My read is simple: this is an outstanding company priced as if the next five years are already visible and nearly flawless.
Grok Reading
The numbers describe a genuine operating transformation, not a narrative mirage. Vertiv took revenue from $5.0B in 2021 to $10.23B in 2025 while expanding operating margin from roughly 5% to 17.9% and net margin to 13.0%; net income scaled from $76.6M in 2022 to $1.33B. Free cash flow of $1.89B on only $220M of capex is capital-light excellence, and ROIC of 27.3% with ROE of 33.8% confirms the returns are real. Recent quarters show the step-up is still intact: the four quarters through Q1 2026 delivered roughly $10.85B of revenue run-rate with net margins locked in the mid-teens (14.7–15.5%), versus mid-single digits two years earlier. Debt of $2.91B against $1.73B cash and $2.11B of operating cash flow is manageable. This is a high-quality industrial that has earned its growth credentials on the back of AI data-center power and thermal demand.
The price, however, has left the fundamentals far behind. At $241.57 the stock trades at 71x earnings, 9.2x sales, 44x EV/EBITDA and roughly 49x free cash flow on a $93B enterprise. Those multiples imply the market is capitalizing not the $1.33B of 2025 earnings or the $1.89B of FCF already achieved, but a multi-year trajectory in which Vertiv sustains 25%+ revenue growth and further margin expansion from a $10B base—effectively pricing a path toward $30–40B of revenue and several billion of incremental FCF without competitive or cyclical interruption. The valuation synthesis anchoring intrinsic value near $93 is directionally correct: even generous 20% earnings CAGRs for five years still leave the stock needing a permanent 40x+ multiple to justify today’s price. Sequential revenue already showed a seasonal step-down from $2.88B in Q4 2025 to $2.65B in Q1 2026, and the secondary signals flag decelerating quarterly trends plus unusual insider selling—precisely the early warning signs that growth is being fully capitalized while risks are ignored.
The strongest counter-argument is simply the durability and visibility of the AI infrastructure supercycle itself. Hyperscaler capex guides remain elevated, liquid cooling and high-density power are structural rather than cyclical requirements, and Vertiv’s backlog conversion plus services mix have already delivered 168% earnings growth year-over-year and a 56% FCF CAGR. A bull can fairly claim that 27% recent revenue growth and 36% gross margins give the company pricing power that traditional industrial comps lack, so a 9x sales multiple is the wrong frame; the right frame is a scarce pure-play compounder that can grow into a mid-teens earnings multiple on much larger absolute profits. That case is not frivolous—execution has been exceptional and the end-market is real—but it still requires the company to compound FCF at roughly 30%+ for the better part of a decade with no multiple compression, an outcome the data do not yet guarantee and that customer concentration and potential hyperscaler in-sourcing (especially on liquid cooling) actively threaten.
I would reverse to a neutral or constructive stance only if the next two reported quarters show revenue re-accelerating above 30% year-over-year with operating margins pushing through 20%, accompanied by explicit multi-year backlog disclosures that de-risk the 2027–2028 revenue bridge, or if the stock corrected into the $140–160 range where the multiple began to discount more realistic mid-teens growth.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
The trajectory is striking: revenue compounded from $5.00B in 2021 to $10.23B in 2025 (roughly 20% CAGR), operating margin expanded from 5.2% to 17.9%, and net income scaled from $120M to $1.33B. FCF followed cleanly - from a $253M outflow in 2022 to $1.89B in 2025 - with OCF/NI of 1.19x, accruals of -3.8% of assets, Beneish M of -2.44, and Altman Z of 8.43. The mechanical checks show no earnings-quality flags; cash is genuinely being produced, not manufactured through accruals. Balance sheet is the softer spot: $1.73B liquid cash against net debt of $1.18B. That is not distress given $1.89B annual FCF (debt could be extinguished in under a year of FCF), but it means the balance sheet is a working constraint, not a fortress cushion. Dilution is moderate but persistent - diluted share count crept from 360M to 391M (~2.1% CAGR) despite buybacks running 391% of SBC, meaning gross issuance still outpaces the retirement pace on a net-share basis. SBC is a modest 0.5% of revenue. Insider tape shows only awards and tax-withholding F codes in the recent window - no open-market P or S transactions in the raw slice provided - though the context module flags 48 sells worth $97M over 12 months, which is worth tracking but not alarming given the run-up. Overall this reads as a well-run operator executing on a powerful demand cycle, with real operating leverage (GM 30.5% to 36.3%, OpM tripling) rather than accounting sleight of hand.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- 10-K debt maturity schedule and covenant terms behind the $1.18B net debt position
- Customer concentration - hyperscaler exposure and top-customer % of revenue given the AI/data-center-driven ramp
- Nature of the 48 insider sells (10b5-1 plan vs discretionary) and whether they cluster around specific executives
- Backlog/orders disclosure to gauge durability of the 20%+ growth rate
- Composition of buybacks vs SBC - whether the 391% ratio reflects true net share retirement or offsets a warrant/convert overhang
- Segment margin detail to see if the OpM lift is broad-based or concentrated in one product line
Every valuation method points the same direction: composite FV $82.45, signal-adjusted FV $92.80, DCF $60.31, EPV floor $22.44, and even the most generous anchored-PE lens only reaches $134.39. Against a $241.57 price and ~$93B market cap, the gap is not subtle - the market is paying roughly 1.8x to 4x deserved value depending on the method. The anchored-PE at $134 is the fairest bull-case benchmark and the price still sits ~80% above it. Company quality is genuinely strong (score 45, clean earnings), which justifies a premium to DCF - but not a doubling of it. The narrative is doing the work here: the price embeds a multi-year hyperscaler capex supercycle with sustained 20%+ ROIC and no margin give-back. That is plausible, not certain, and it is fully in the tape. Earnings quality is high so I will not haircut further, but I also cannot manufacture upside from a clean P&L when the multiple already assumes the good outcome. Margin of safety is negative; this is a price-for-perfection setup where any AI capex wobble, hyperscaler pricing pushback, or execution miss re-rates the multiple hard.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward hyperscaler capex guidance and Vertiv's book-to-bill trend in the next two quarters
- Segment margin trajectory - whether operating leverage is peaking or still expanding
- Any commentary on pricing concessions to large customers
- Free cash flow conversion vs GAAP earnings and buyback vs dilution net effect
VRT is a platform-monopoly narrative stock (AI data-center backbone) that just took a real hit to its story: revenue missed on July 29 and the stock crashed 17% in a single session, down 24% over four weeks. That is exactly the kind of event that dents narrative durability - the story is not broken, but the 'flawless execution' premium the market was paying is now being questioned, and with beta at 2.03 any wobble in the tape amplifies into this name. News flow is genuinely mixed: bulls are pointing to Big Tech's $750B AI capex plans and analyst estimate revisions higher, bears have a fresh miss to point at, and technicals show an oversold bounce setup. The macro tape is only mildly supportive (regime +22, VIX 16, but 10y at 4.68% and market PE 26.9 punish long-duration growth stories exactly like this one). For a name where roughly 60% of the price is pure narrative premium, a nascent neutral tape does not offer enough cover to offset a fresh narrative crack. Net: the pressure leans negative, but not decisively - the AI-capex secular story is still intact enough that this is a headwind, not a rout.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Whether the next data point (hyperscaler capex commentary, orders, backlog) reinforces or contradicts the Q2 revenue miss
- Analyst target revisions in the two weeks post-print - are cuts stopping or accelerating
- Whether AI-infrastructure cohort (peers in power/cooling) trades in sympathy or VRT is being singled out
- 10y yield direction - a move back below 4.4% would materially relieve long-duration pressure
- Follow-through on the oversold bounce vs failure to reclaim key moving averages
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.