Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$120.81
6-month call
Bull +25.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$152.00
Great value below
$125.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+25.8% to $152.00
Predicted High
$152.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$115.50
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:00 pm
Bull
LULU trends higher to
$152.00
(+25.8% from $120.81)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLULU sits deeply oversold into a Sept 3 print with sentiment washed out; a guide-down risk keeps the near-term jumpy, but valuation gravity toward the $175-190 fair value zone and 4/4 beat cadence support a grind higher into 2027 once the event clears.
Invalidated ifA close below $105 post-earnings or a formal guide cut confirming structural brand erosion negates the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $120.81 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $120.81 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $110.50–$131.12 typical range · internal point $115.50 | — | ±8.5% | 6/10 | Sept 3 print risk and negative sentiment pressure |
| What actually happened: closed $98.98 on Sep 11, 2026 = -18.1% vs the call (predicted -4.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $105.87–$135.75 typical range · internal point $124.00 | — | ±12.4% | 5/10 | Post-earnings relief if beat streak extends |
| What actually happened: closed $100.58 on Sep 28, 2026 = -16.8% vs the call (predicted +2.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 19.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $131.00 | — | +8.4% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below fair-value anchor |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $138.00 | — | +14.2% | 5/10 | Holiday read-through and analyst rerate begin |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $142.00 | — | +17.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning toward oversold quality names |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $148.00 | — | +22.5% | 4/10 | Q4 preannounce window and DCF gravity |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $152.00 | — | +25.8% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $146.48 (+21.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $120.81 |
| Composite fair value | $175.08 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $191.26 |
| DCF fair value | $181.68 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $125.00 |
| Value net score | +46 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +41 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.9% 3m 42.8% 6m 44.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.83 3m 0.88 5m 1.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -34.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 13d behind | LULU-20260815-111314-403f |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260828-124854-161a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260828-124854-161a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260828-124854-161a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-LULU-20260828-124854-161a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | LULU-20260825-030002-23d1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | LULU-20260825-030002-23d1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $121.15 | $150.50 | +24.2% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $120.81 | $152.00 | +25.8% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $116.80 | $150.00 | +28.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $117.12 | $142.00 | +21.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $118.06 | $147.00 | +24.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $120.23 | $149.00 | +23.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.