Made on
Aug 29, 2026
Price at call
$50.10
6-month call
Bear -5.2%
Target by Mar 2027
$47.50
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.2% to $47.50
Predicted High
$50.35
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$47.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 29, 2026 1:07 pm
Bear
VZ trends lower to
$47.50
(-5.2% from $50.10)
by Mar 2027.
decay
ThesisVZ is a defensive yield-proxy anchored around $50 in a risk-on tape that caps upside while its dividend and low beta limit downside. Value gravity pulls slowly lower over months but sentiment and yield support prevent a fast repricing toward fair value.
Invalidated ifA break above $53 on strong volume or below $47 would falsify the slow-drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $50.10 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 29, 2026 | — | $50.10 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 12, 2026 | $47.28–$52.92 typical range · internal point $50.35 | — | ±5.6% | 7/10 | Yield-proxy stability, low beta, no catalysts near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $50.61 on Sep 11, 2026 = +1.0% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.6%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 29, 2026 | $46.01–$54.19 typical range · internal point $50.20 | — | ±8.2% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape caps upside, dividend support holds |
| What actually happened: closed $46.68 on Sep 28, 2026 = -6.8% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.2%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 29, 2026 | $49.60 | — | -1.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins, sector rotation away from defensives |
| 3 months | Nov 29, 2026 | $49.00 | — | -2.2% | 5/10 | Earnings likely in-window, modest beat priced in |
| 4 months | Dec 29, 2026 | $48.80 | — | -2.6% | 4/10 | Year-end tax considerations, defensive rotation muted |
| 5 months | Jan 29, 2027 | $48.20 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Fair-value pull outweighs yield support gradually |
| 6 months | Mar 1, 2027 | $47.50 | — | -5.2% | 3/10 | Slow drift toward bear scenario anchor $39.73 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $46.12 (-7.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $50.10 |
| Composite fair value | $27.34 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $27.75 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | -37 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +7 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 16.3% 3m 28.3% 6m 24.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.34 3m -0.48 5m -0.37 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | 25d behind | VZ-20260804-000624-1436 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-VZ-20260829-021725-a0c4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-VZ-20260829-021725-a0c4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-VZ-20260829-021725-a0c4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | ext-VZ-20260829-021725-a0c4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | VZ-20260829-020002-404a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 29, 2026 | freshest | VZ-20260829-020002-404a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.