Made on
Aug 30, 2026
Price at call
$68.65
6-month call
Bull +11.0%
Target by Mar 2027
$76.20
Great value below
$65.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.0% to $76.20
Predicted High
$76.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$68.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 30, 2026 1:00 pm
Bull
MO trends higher to
$76.20
(+11.0% from $68.65)
by Mar 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisMO is a low-beta defensive income name trading well below composite fair value ($86) in a risk-on tape that suppresses near-term interest. Expect choppy sideways action for 1-2 months as sentiment headwind offsets value pull, then gradual mean reversion toward the mid-70s as dividend capture and value gravity assert over the 6-month window.
Invalidated ifBreak below $65 support on volume or a dividend cut/FDA menthol shock would falsify; sustained risk-off rotation would accelerate upside.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $68.65 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 30, 2026 | — | $68.65 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 13, 2026 | $64.23–$73.07 typical range · internal point $68.90 | — | ±6.4% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, risk-on tape caps upside near term |
| What actually happened: closed $68.98 on Sep 11, 2026 = +0.5% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.4%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 30, 2026 | $62.24–$75.06 typical range · internal point $69.40 | — | ±9.3% | 6/10 | Value buyers nibble below $70, mild ex-div support |
| What actually happened: closed $68.72 on Sep 29, 2026 = +0.1% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.0 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 30, 2026 | $70.80 | — | +3.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, income rotation begins |
| 3 months | Nov 30, 2026 | $72.50 | — | +5.6% | 5/10 | Earnings beat pattern lifts toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 30, 2026 | $73.60 | — | +7.2% | 4/10 | Year-end defensive bid, tax-loss selling absent |
| 5 months | Jan 30, 2027 | $74.80 | — | +9.0% | 4/10 | January income allocation, dividend yield compression |
| 6 months | Mar 2, 2027 | $76.20 | — | +11.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite $86 anchor partially closes gap |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $77.04 (+12.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $68.65 |
| Composite fair value | $86.11 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $88.44 |
| DCF fair value | $88.74 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $117.28 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $65.00 |
| Value net score | +25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +33 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.2% 3m 32.3% 6m 29.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.40 3m -1.18 5m -0.87 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | 22d behind | MO-20260808-000712-103b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-MO-20260830-001743-b9f9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-MO-20260830-001743-b9f9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-MO-20260830-001743-b9f9 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-MO-20260830-001743-b9f9 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | MO-20260830-000001-11c8 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 30, 2026 | freshest | MO-20260830-000001-11c8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.