Made on
Sep 18, 2026
Price at call
$78.42
6-month call
Bull +9.7%
Target by Mar 2027
$86.00
Great value below
$65.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.7% to $86.00
Predicted High
$86.25
at 4 months
Predicted Low
$79.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 18, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
APH trends higher to
$86.00
(+9.7% from $78.42)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAPH is riding the AI-datacom momentum wave with strong quality and consistent earnings beats, but trades above DCF fair value with weak value score. Expect continued near-term drift higher on momentum, then gradual mean-reversion toward composite fair value near $89 as the tape cools.
Invalidated ifA break below $70 on heavy volume or AI-capex guidance cuts from hyperscalers would invalidate the upward drift.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $78.42 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 18, 2026 | — | $78.42 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 2, 2026 | $71.69–$85.15 typical range · internal point $79.80 | — | ±8.6% | 7/10 | Momentum and AI narrative carry near-term tape |
| What actually happened: closed $85.67 on Oct 1, 2026 = +9.3% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 18, 2026 | $68.67–$88.17 typical range · internal point $81.50 | — | ±12.4% | 6/10 | Continued sentiment lift, neutral regime supportive |
| 2 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $83.75 | — | +6.8% | 5/10 | Drift toward composite fair value, quality bid |
| 3 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $85.50 | — | +9.0% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning, AI-datacom theme intact |
| 4 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $86.25 | — | +10.0% | 4/10 | January rebalance, valuation gravity begins |
| 5 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $84.50 | — | +7.8% | 4/10 | Momentum fades as stretched multiple weighs |
| 6 months | Mar 18, 2027 | $86.00 | — | +9.7% | 4/10 | Settles near composite fair value anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $82.80 (+5.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $78.42 |
| Composite fair value | $89.35 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $130.75 |
| DCF fair value | $69.85 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $209.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $65.00 |
| Value net score | -30 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +70 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 37.6% 3m 43.1% 6m 45.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.90 3m 1.83 5m 1.49 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 22.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 11d behind | APH-20260804-000624-eef0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-APH-20260917-162226-83ee |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-APH-20260917-162226-83ee |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-APH-20260917-162226-83ee |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-APH-20260917-162226-83ee |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | APH-20260804-000624-eef0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | APH-20260804-000624-eef0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.