Made on
Sep 18, 2026
Price at call
$1,057.88
6-month call
Bear -7.8%
Target by Mar 2027
$975.00
Great value below
$850.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.8% to $975.00
Predicted High
$1,072.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$975.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 18, 2026 1:09 pm
Bear
BLK trends lower to
$975.00
(-7.8% from $1,057.88)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisBLK trades far above every valuation anchor but sentiment and platform-monopoly narrative are still bid; expect near-term drift higher on momentum, then gradual mean reversion toward the anchored-PE zone as value gravity reasserts over the 6-month window.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $1,120 on sustained volume or a hard break below $980 would falsify the mild fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,057.88 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 18, 2026 | — | $1,057.88 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 2, 2026 | $998.75–$1,117.01 typical range · internal point $1,068.00 | — | ±5.6% | 6/10 | Momentum and platform narrative carry price modestly higher |
| What actually happened: closed $1,064.36 on Oct 1, 2026 = +0.6% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 18, 2026 | $972.19–$1,143.57 typical range · internal point $1,072.00 | — | ±8.1% | 5/10 | Neutral regime, no catalyst, drift continues |
| 2 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $1,050.00 | — | -0.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins tugging as narrative cools |
| 3 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $1,030.00 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Year-end positioning, profit-taking on rich multiple |
| 4 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $1,010.00 | — | -4.5% | 4/10 | January earnings risk weighs on premium valuation |
| 5 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $995.00 | — | -5.9% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, anchored-PE pull intensifies |
| 6 months | Mar 18, 2027 | $975.00 | — | -7.8% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline and PE anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $960.78 (-9.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,057.88 |
| Composite fair value | $529.63 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $514.77 |
| DCF fair value | $428.25 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $966.63 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $850.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +55 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.7% 3m 28.1% 6m 27.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.67 3m 1.26 5m 1.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 8.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 11d behind | BLK-20260804-002729-2d7a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BLK-20260917-162641-2c32 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BLK-20260917-162641-2c32 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BLK-20260917-162641-2c32 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-BLK-20260917-162641-2c32 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | BLK-20260804-002729-2d7a |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | BLK-20260804-002729-2d7a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.