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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 4, 2026
19 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 4, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 15 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -17 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 52 · Value -73 · Sentiment 43 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $516.19 vs $1,126.63 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

BlackRock, Inc.

BLK NYSE
Financial Services · Asset Management
New York, NY 10001, United States blackrock.com Updated Aug 4, 12:27am
Price
$1,126.63
Market Cap
$183.2B
Employees
22,700
Beta
1.44
Avg Volume
892,140
Last Dividend
$21.88
CEO
Mr. Laurence Douglas Fink

BlackRock, Inc. is a global investment management and financial technology company headquartered in New York City. It provides a broad range of investment products, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds under the iShares brand, separate accounts, and alternative investment strategies spanning equities, fixed income, multi-asset, cash management, and private markets. BlackRock serves institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, and corporations, as well as financial advisors and individual investors worldwide. A distinguishing feature of BlackRock is its Aladdin platform, which offers portfolio management, risk analytics, trading, and operations technology to asset managers, banks, insurers, and other financial institutions, positioning the firm as both an asset manager and enterprise technology provider. The company also offers advisory and risk management services, including portfolio advisory and retirement solutions, playing a central role in global capital markets and investment infrastructure. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in New York City, BlackRock operates across North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 4, 2026 12:36am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$1,126.63
as of Aug 4, 12:52am (19d ago)
Change · Aug 4
+36.24 (+3.32%)
Day Range
$1,096.19 – $1,129.24
52-Week Range
$917.39 – $1,219.94
50-Day MA
$1,034.84
200-Day MA
$1,053.97
Volume
587,756.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 19d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 154,995,389.00
Float 143,931,450.00
Free Float 92.9%
High free float — 92.9% of shares trade freely, ~7.1% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:52am (19d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 8:34pm (22d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 4, 2026 12:34am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
31.91
Stock Price: $1,127
EPS (Diluted): 35.31
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
2.88
Stock Price: $1,127
Total Equity: $61.54B
Shares: 157,264,231
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
18.59
Market Cap: $183.19B
Total Debt: $12.77B
Cash: $11.47B
EBITDA: $9.48B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$176.3B
Market Cap: $183.19B
Total Debt: $12.77B
Cash: $11.47B
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
46.7%
Gross Profit: $11.31B
Revenue: $24.22B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
32.7%
Operating Income: $7.91B
Revenue: $24.22B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
22.9%
Net Income: $5.55B
Revenue: $24.22B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
9.0%
Net Income: $5.55B
Total Equity: $61.54B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
9.8%
Operating Income: $7.91B
Tax Rate: 22.0%
Equity: $61.54B
Total Debt: $12.77B
Cash: $11.47B
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Current Assets: N/A
Current Liabilities: N/A
Missing from API: Current Assets, Current Liabilities
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.21
Short-Term Debt: $0.00
Long-Term Debt: $12.77B
Total Debt: $12.77B
Total Equity: $61.54B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$153.98
Revenue: $24.22B
Shares: 157,264,231
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$391.33
Total Equity: $61.54B
Shares: 157,264,231
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$22.59
Operating CF: $3.93B
CapEx: -$375.00M
Shares: 157,264,231
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
1.9%
Last Dividend: $21.88
Stock Price: $1,127
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $5.55B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 4, 2026 12:34am
Compares BLK against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 8:34pm (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $19.4B $17.9B $17.9B $20.4B $24.2B
Cost of Revenue $9.9B $9.4B $9.5B $10.3B $12.9B
Gross Profit $9.5B $8.4B $8.3B $10.1B $11.3B
Operating Expenses $2.0B $1.9B $2.0B $2.5B $3.4B
Operating Income $7.5B $6.5B $6.3B $7.5B $7.9B
Net Income $5.9B $5.2B $5.5B $6.4B $5.6B
EBITDA $8.0B $7.1B $7.2B $8.8B $9.5B
EPS $38.60 $34.31 $36.85 $42.45 $35.83
EPS (Diluted) $38.07 $33.97 $36.51 $42.01 $35.31
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 8:34pm (22d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $8.7B $12.8B $11.5B
Total Current Assets
Total Assets $123.2B $138.6B $170.0B
Current Liabilities
Long-Term Debt $7.9B $12.3B $12.8B
Total Liabilities $82.0B $89.3B $108.5B
Total Equity $37.8B $37.9B $41.2B $49.4B $61.5B
Retained Earnings
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 8:34pm (22d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $5.0B $4.2B $5.0B $3.9B
Capital Expenditure -$533.0M -$344.0M -$255.0M -$375.0M
Free Cash Flow $4.4B $3.8B $4.7B $3.6B
Acquisitions (net) $0 -$189.0M -$2.9B -$3.5B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) -$750.0M $1.2B $4.5B $284.0M
Dividends Paid -$3.0B -$3.0B -$3.1B
Stock Buybacks -$2.3B -$1.9B -$1.9B
Net Change in Cash -$1.9B $1.3B $4.0B -$1.3B
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 8:34pm (22d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth -7.7% -0.1% +14.3% +18.7%
Gross Profit Growth -10.9% -0.9% +20.8% +12.1%
Operating Income Growth -13.3% -2.4% +19.0% +4.9%
Net Income Growth -12.3% +6.3% +15.8% -12.8%
EBITDA Growth -11.7% +2.5% +22.1% +7.3%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 8:34pm (22d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-06-05 $5.73
2026-03-06 $5.73
2025-12-05 $5.21
2025-09-05 $5.21
2025-06-05 $5.21
2025-03-07 $5.21
2024-12-05 $5.10
2024-09-09 $5.10
2024-06-07 $5.10
2024-03-06 $5.10
2023-12-06 $5.00
2023-09-07 $5.00
2023-06-07 $5.00
2023-03-06 $5.00
2022-12-06 $4.88
2022-09-06 $4.88
2022-06-03 $4.88
2022-03-04 $4.88
2021-12-06 $4.13
2021-09-03 $4.13
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable 18 computed · 6 not applicable
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 08:37
-0.3 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 19% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 57%. Caveat: revenue-DCF fits financials poorly (reported revenue omits net interest) — treat the legs as rough.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($1,126.63)
Bull — recovery +36% 27.7% $912.87 -19%
Base — stabilizes +24% 24.1% $582.01 -48%
Bear — keeps slipping +12% 20.5% $359.40 -68%
Stress — last quarter repeats +25% 18.8% $486.41 -57%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-09-30) — growth stays at 25.3% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.78). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +28.8% · operating income +53.8% · net income +33.0% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Sep 30, 2025 (revenue +25.2%, operating income -2.5% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for BLK — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-04 00:51:39
Verdict Overvalued but not egregiously — fair value $880-1,000, not the synthesis's $530; trim or avoid at $1,126, revisit if Q2/Q3 2026 margins confirm the 33% recovery is durable.

The raw numbers tell a coherent story that the models are partially misreading. Revenue growth is real and accelerating: TTM revenue is roughly $24.2B vs $17.9B two years ago, and the most recent quarter ($6.70B) annualizes to ~$26.8B — that's genuine 18-19% top-line growth, driven substantially by the GIP/HPS/Preqin acquisitions that closed through 2024-2025. But look at what's happening beneath: 2025 annual net income of $5.55B is actually *below* 2024's $6.37B despite revenue growing 19%. Operating margin compressed from 42% (2023) to 33% (2025). ROE of 9.0% is mediocre for an asset manager — TROW and Ameriprise historically clear 15-20%. This isn't a compounding machine right now; it's a company diluting margins to buy AUM growth in private markets, and the market is paying 32x earnings for the promise it works.

The synthesis DCF at ~$530 fair value (implying -53%) strikes me as too aggressive on the downside, and the Market Forces "tailwinds" read is too rosy. Both can be wrong. A saner frame: apply a 22-24x multiple (historical asset manager range, adjusted upward for Aladdin's genuine stickiness) to normalized ~$40-42/share earnings power once acquisition noise clears, giving $880-1,000 fair value. That's still 12-22% downside from $1,126, not 53%. The composite DCF appears to be penalizing the FCF trough (-3.6% CAGR) as if it's structural, when much of it reflects deal integration and one-time items. Meanwhile the "market tailwinds" framing hand-waves through the fact that earnings CAGR is 0.5% over five years — that's not a tailwind, that's stagnation masked by acquisition-fueled revenue.

The contrarian case against my own moderate-bear view: BlackRock genuinely is the only firm operating at $11.5T+ AUM with a proprietary tech platform (Aladdin) that competitors cannot replicate, and the GIP/HPS deals bought them a credible private markets franchise at what will look cheap if alts fees hold. If Aladdin revenue inflects to $2B+ with 40%+ SaaS-like margins, a sum-of-the-parts justifies $1,200+. The unusual insider selling (multiple sales July 16) is noise — executive comp cycles, not signal, at a company this size. And the Q1 2026 print at 33% net margin suggests margin recovery is already underway post-integration. That's the strongest bull data point in the file and the DCF model appears to ignore it. Also flag: the 2024-12-31 negative revenue print (-$1.94B) is clearly a reporting artifact (likely a reclassification of investment losses), and any model treating it as real is contaminated.

Where I land: the synthesis is directionally right (overvalued) but the magnitude is overstated, and the market-forces "patient investor" framing understates real risks — passive fee compression is a decade-long secular headwind, ROE at 9% is genuinely poor, and paying 32x for 0.5% five-year EPS growth requires believing narratives that haven't shown up in the P&L. The narrative-economics layer nails it: ~55-60% fundamentals, ~40% platform-premium story. That premium is defensible but not at current price. I dissent from the -53% magnitude but agree with the overvalued direction. A fair entry is $850-950; current $1,126 offers negative expected return over 2 years unless Aladdin materially inflects or alts fees prove stickier than base case. The Q1 margin recovery is the single most important data point to monitor — if 33% holds through 2026, my fair value moves toward $1,050 and this becomes a hold, not a sell.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-04 00:51:55
Verdict Overvalued at $1,126 — a great franchise, but the current price assumes earnings power closer to $7B than the $5.55B actually delivered; fair value looks closer to $800-$900 unless margins inflect sustainably.

At $1,126, BlackRock is being valued like a hybrid of a premium asset manager and a financial infrastructure platform, but the reported economics here still look much more like the former than the latter. The most favorable fact in the file is revenue growth: 2025 revenue reached $24.22B, up 18.7% from $20.41B in 2024 and well above the roughly $17.9B level of 2022-2023. Quarterly revenue also accelerated from $5.28B in 1Q25 to $6.70B in 1Q26. But the income statement is not keeping pace. Net income fell from $6.37B in 2024 to $5.55B in 2025 despite that strong top-line growth, taking net margin down to 22.9% from roughly 31.2%. The quarter pattern shows the same issue: 3Q25 net margin was only 20.3%, then 1Q26 rebounded to 33%, which tells me the franchise remains strong but earnings quality is being distorted by integration, mix, market-related items, or accounting noise rather than demonstrating clean operating leverage. When a stock trades at 31.9x earnings, 7.3x sales, and 18.6x EV/EBITDA, I want clearer evidence that each incremental dollar of revenue is structurally more valuable than the last. This dataset doesn’t show that.

The balance sheet is fine, not the problem. Debt of $12.77B against $11.47B of cash is modest for a company with $61.54B of equity, and operating margins remain excellent at 32.7%. But cash generation is underwhelming relative to the equity value. Free cash flow of $3.55B against a $183B market cap is roughly a 1.9% FCF yield. Even allowing for working-capital and market-linked distortions that can affect asset managers, that is thin for a mature financial company whose earnings CAGR over the period shown is only 0.5% and whose FCF CAGR is negative 3.6%. Return metrics also fail to justify a software-like multiple: ROE is 9.0%, ROIC 9.8%, ROA 3.3%. Those are respectable, not extraordinary. If this were trading at 20-24x earnings, I could make the case that scale, resilience, and optionality around Aladdin and alternatives deserve a premium. At nearly 32x, the market is already capitalizing those positives as if they are proven margin-expanding engines rather than promising but still only partially visible in the numbers.

The biggest tell for me is the mismatch between the growth narrative and the realized profit trajectory. Over five years, revenue grew from $19.37B in 2021 to $24.22B in 2025, but net income went from $5.90B to $5.55B. Said differently: the business is larger, but not more profitable. That can be fine during a strategic transition, yet valuation only works if you underwrite a re-acceleration in earnings that is not yet in evidence. The strange quarterly lines, including a negative $1.94B revenue quarter in 4Q24 and a missing 4Q25 revenue figure, make me cautious about overprecision, but they do not alter the central picture: the annual numbers are clean enough to say the market is paying a very high price for anticipated future monetization. Insider activity is not decisive, but the recent cluster of option exercises and sales rather than open-market buying does nothing to challenge the idea that management sees the stock as at least fully valued.

The best argument against my view is that BlackRock is not a normal asset manager and should not be valued on backward earnings alone. A smart bull would point to the 18.7% revenue growth, the 1Q26 rebound to $2.21B of net income on $6.70B of revenue, and the possibility that 2025 was a trough year for margin due to deliberate investment or acquisitions that enlarge the long-run moat. They would also argue that scale in ETFs, institutional relationships, and technology creates a much stickier revenue base than traditional active managers enjoy, so 31.9x trough-ish earnings may be less expensive than it looks if normalized earnings power is materially above $5.55B. I take that seriously, especially because a 33% margin quarter shows the engine can still throw off elite profitability. But to justify $183B, I think normalized earnings need to be demonstrated, not inferred. On the current figures, the stock is priced for earnings power that sits notably above what the annual statements presently show.

What would change my mind is straightforward. If the next full year can translate the revenue ramp into something like $6.8B-$7.2B of net income with free cash flow moving above $5B, then today’s multiple compresses toward a more defensible mid-20s earnings range for a category leader. I would also want to see operating margin hold above 33% while revenue stays above a $26B annualized run rate; that would indicate the platform thesis is finally showing up in reported economics. Absent that, fair value looks materially lower. A business with 9%-10% returns on capital, sub-2% FCF yield, and flat multi-year earnings should not command a tech-adjacent premium simply because the story is excellent.

Grok Reading
Independent reading · grok-4.5 · generated 2026-08-04 00:52:22
Verdict Overvalued at $1127; fundamentals support ~$530–650 even with credit for alternatives/Aladdin optionality

The numbers tell a clear story of a franchise that is growing the top line while failing to grow the bottom line. BlackRock printed $24.22B in 2025 revenue, up nearly 19% from $20.41B, yet net income fell from $6.37B to $5.55B and free cash flow sits at only $3.55B. That is a 1.9% FCF yield on a $183B market cap. Operating margin held near 33% on an annual basis, but quarterly NI margins have swung violently—from 31% in mid-2024 down to 20% in Q3 2025 before snapping back to 33% in Q1 2026 on $6.70B revenue and $2.21B of earnings. Revenue CAGR of 16.5% against an earnings CAGR of 0.5% and an FCF CAGR of –3.6% is the central contradiction: the company is getting larger without getting more profitable for shareholders. At 31.9x trailing earnings, 7.3x sales, and 18.6x EV/EBITDA, with ROE of just 9.0% and ROIC of 9.8%, the multiple is priced for a growth compounder while the cash economics still look like a mature asset manager. The balance sheet is clean—$12.77B debt against $11.47B cash and a 0.21 debt-to-equity ratio—but balance-sheet strength does not justify paying nearly double a DCF-implied value near $530.

The Q1 2026 print is the one data point that forces a harder look: $2.21B of net income in a single quarter, if annualized near $8–9B, would pull the forward P/E toward the low-20s and make the current $1,127 price less absurd. Revenue has stepped up from the mid-$5B quarterly run-rate into the mid-to-high $6B range, consistent with alternatives AUM ramping and iShares flow share remaining dominant. The market is explicitly paying a 40–45% narrative premium for Aladdin as an institutional operating system and for structural passive share gains; that story is not pure fantasy given BlackRock’s scale and switching costs. Insider activity shows option exercises paired with sales rather than open-market accumulation, and FCF quality remains acceptable, so the franchise is not deteriorating in an absolute sense—just failing to earn its cost of capital at this valuation.

The strongest case against calling this overvalued is that the earnings trough in 2025 reflects integration and mix-shift costs from the alternatives push, and that patient capital will be rewarded once those margins normalize and Aladdin contribution becomes visible in the segment numbers. A smart opponent would argue that 16–19% revenue growth at this scale is rare in asset management, that the 2025 NI decline is transitional noise, and that applying a 25x multiple to a normalized $7–8B earnings power still supports $1,000-plus. I weigh that differently because the multi-year evidence shows earnings and FCF stubbornly flat-to-down while the stock has already capitalized the optimistic case; until NI and FCF actually compound, the premium is hope, not demonstrated economics. Fee compression in passive and political/regulatory overhangs around concentration and ESG remain real, not theoretical, risks to the narrative that is carrying nearly half the market cap.

I would flip to neutral or constructive if the next two quarters sustain net income above $2.0B with operating margins locked above 30%, if management breaks out Aladdin revenue showing high-teens growth and software-like margins, or if trailing FCF crosses $5.5B while the multiple compresses below 25x forward earnings.

Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.3; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.7 vs panel · self: 4.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Grok grok-4.5 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.3 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-04 01:26:30
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Quality - wait for a dip 7/10
Elite franchise, but the price already pays for the second act to work flawlessly - I'm not chasing at $1,127 with sentiment doing the heavy lifting.
The cruxWhether the 2025 margin compression to 32.7% was transitory M&A drag or the new normal - because the multiple only holds if Aladdin/private-markets accretion inflects margins back above 36% within 12-18 months.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from BLK's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityWeak — Some Red Flags
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+52
Strong
edge √Σ 136 · risk √Σ 78 · conf 8/10

Revenue grew from $19.4B in 2021 to $24.2B in 2025 (roughly 5.7% CAGR), with operating margin holding in the 33-39% range and net income between $5.2B and $6.4B annually. Gross margins have stayed near 47-49%, and free cash flow has run $3.5B-$4.7B per year. Diluted share count went from 155.0M to 157.3M over five years (0.4% CAGR), with buybacks running 180% of SBC - real per-share discipline for a business with 6.4% SBC/revenue. The concerns are secondary but real: operating margin fell from 36.9% in 2024 to 32.7% in 2025 even as revenue jumped 18.7% (likely GIP/HPS/Preqin acquisition integration costs and share issuance for deals, since share count ticked up from 151.6M to 157.3M in 2025). OCF/NI at 0.8x and 2025 FCF at $3.55B (down from $4.70B in 2023) show earnings running slightly ahead of cash. Insider activity is one-sided (32 sells, 0 buys, $191M) but this is a mature large-cap where routine executive selling is normal. The Altman Z of 1.31 is essentially meaningless here - the model is calibrated for industrial/asset-heavy firms and systematically flags asset managers and financials as 'distressed' due to their balance-sheet structure. Net debt of $1.3B against $11.5B of liquid cash and $3.5B+ of annual FCF is trivial coverage.

Strengths 4
m80
Franchise-level cash generation at scale
FCF of $3.5B-$4.7B annually on $24B revenue, with operating margins consistently in the 33-39% band - characteristic of a fee-based asset manager with structural operating leverage.
m70
Per-share discipline
Diluted shares grew only 0.4% CAGR (155.0M to 157.3M over 5 years) and buybacks ran 180.9% of SBC despite 6.4% SBC/revenue - management is actively protecting per-share value.
m65
Revenue growth accelerating
Revenue jumped 18.7% in 2025 to $24.2B after flat 2022-2023, reflecting AUM growth and the private-markets platform build-out (GIP, HPS, Preqin deals).
m55
Ample liquidity vs. modest net debt
$11.47B liquid cash against only $1.30B net debt position - the balance sheet is a workable cushion, not a constraint, for a fee-based business.
Concerns 4
m55
2025 margin compression
Operating margin fell from 36.9% to 32.7% year-over-year while revenue surged - suggests acquisition-related dilution to margins that needs to prove transitory.
m40
Cash conversion softening
OCF/NI at 0.8x and 2024 FCF at $3.55B (vs. $4.70B in 2023, $6.37B net income) indicates earnings quality slipped modestly - accruals of 1% of assets are contained but worth watching.
m30
One-sided insider tape
32 sells for $191M against zero buys in 12 months; Fink and Meade recently sold. Consistent with normal executive diversification at a mature large-cap but the absence of any conviction buying is notable.
m25
Share count inflection in 2025
Diluted shares rose from 151.6M to 157.3M (about 3.8%) in 2025, likely deal-related issuance - the historic per-share discipline pattern needs to reassert itself.
This is a high-quality business by almost any lens - dominant scale, sticky fee revenue, real operating margins, and unusually good share-count discipline for a firm with 6.4% SBC/revenue. The Altman Z distress flag is a model artifact for financials and I discount it entirely. What I don't love is the 2025 margin drop and the M&A-driven share issuance - BlackRock is making a big bet on private markets and paying real integration costs to do it. Cash conversion is a touch soft. But the base franchise is sound, per-share value is being protected, and insider selling looks like ordinary diversification rather than a signal. Solidly Strong, not Fortress - the private-markets pivot has to prove out before I would go higher.
Verify before trusting this (6)
  • Whether 2025 operating margin compression is one-time acquisition/integration cost or structural mix shift as private-markets AUM grows
  • AUM composition and fee-rate trends by product (index vs. active vs. private markets vs. tech/Aladdin)
  • Terms and share issuance associated with GIP, HPS, and Preqin acquisitions
  • Client concentration and net new asset flows by channel
  • Detail behind the OCF/NI slippage - working capital timing vs. real earnings quality erosion
  • 10b5-1 plan coverage on recent Fink and Meade sales
Valuation / Mispricing
-73
Rich
edge √Σ 20 · risk √Σ 114 · conf 6/10
Price $1,127 vs deserved ~$530 (signal-adj) to $618 (anchored PE) - roughly 45-55% overvalued, no margin of safety. attractive below $650.00

The composite fair value of $481 and signal-adjusted FV of $530 both sit less than half the current $1,127 price, implying roughly -53% downside on the synthesis. Even the most generous input, the anchored P/E at $618, leaves the stock ~45% above deserved value. DCF at $469 and EPV floor at $370 corroborate that intrinsic cash-earnings power does not support a $183B market cap without heroic assumptions about Aladdin monetization and private-markets accretion. I sanity-check the models: none look runaway low - they cluster in a tight $370-$620 band, which is unusual agreement and hard to dismiss. The bull case (platform monopoly, Aladdin as the OS of finance, GIP/HPS accretion) is essentially the consensus narrative already embedded in a mid-20s P/E on a fee-compressing asset manager. Company quality is Strong, which justifies a premium to EPV, but not a 2x premium - and the earnings-quality haircut (weak, -1) argues for trimming deserved value further, not stretching it. Margin compression in 2025 and M&A-funded share issuance are real dings. Net: the price is pricing in near-flawless execution on private markets and tech, with no cushion if fee wars or integration slip.

Cheap signals 1
m20
Franchise quality partially justifies a premium
Strong quality lens (score 52), Aladdin stickiness, and iShares scale merit a premium to EPV - but a premium to $370 gets you to maybe $600-700, not $1,127.
Rich / priced-in 4
m78
Composite FV less than half of price
Signal-adjusted FV $530 vs $1,127 price implies -53% downside; three independent methods (DCF $469, EPV $370, anchored PE $618) all sit well below spot, so this is not a single-model artifact.
m60
Priced like a growth-tech platform, not an asset manager
Market is capitalizing Aladdin/private-markets optionality that has not shown up in reported margins - 2025 margins actually compressed. You are paying for a transition that is not yet in the numbers.
m45
Earnings-quality haircut argues for lower, not higher, deserved value
The -1 earnings-quality signal (M&A-driven issuance, margin drop) should trim deserved value; instead the price demands you extend the multiple.
m35
Fee compression risk uncompensated
Passive ETF fee wars continue to grind bps; at this price there is zero cushion if blended fee rate slips even 1-2 bps a year.
I can't get to cheap here. Every method I trust puts deserved value between $370 and $620, and I am staring at $1,127. Even giving full credit to a Strong quality grade and Aladdin optionality, I get maybe $700 as a stretch fair value - still 35%+ below spot. This is a great business at a price that already assumes the great business executes flawlessly on a second act. I would need it near $650 before valuation gets interesting, and I'd want to see Aladdin/private-markets revenue actually inflect before paying more.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Aladdin revenue growth and margin disclosure in latest 10-Q - is tech services actually inflecting?
  • GIP and HPS deal accretion timeline and realized fee rates on private assets
  • Blended fee rate trend across iShares vs active vs alternatives
  • Buyback pace vs SBC and M&A issuance - net share count trajectory
  • Operating margin trajectory ex-transaction costs to see if 2025 compression is transient
General Sentiment
+43
Tailwind
tail √Σ 93 · head √Σ 47 · conf 7/10

The dominant force on BLK right now is a narrative one: the platform-monopoly / 'operating system of finance' story is getting fresh, credible fuel from this week's tokenized fund launches on Solana and Ethereum and the BSTBL/BRSRV push to become the stablecoin reserve manager ahead of the CLARITY Act. That is exactly the kind of news flow that lets bulls re-underwrite BLK as a fintech/SaaS-adjacent platform rather than a 3-4% organic-growth asset manager, which is the whole reason the multiple sits where it does. Intensity strong, durability moderate, cult medium - the story is being actively reinforced, not fading. The macro tape is a mild risk-on (+34) with VIX 15.9, which is a modest tailwind, but BLK's 1.44 beta means it does lever the tape more than a defensive financial would. Offsetting that, 10y at 4.75 and mkt PE 26.9 are a persistent low-grade headwind for a name already priced for platform economics. Analyst tone is not shown but news cadence is uniformly constructive (tokenization leadership, dividend-stock framing, ETF dominance context via the Corgi comparison). Net: narrative and news flow are pressing the stock up harder than macro is pressing it down.

Tailwinds 4
m72
Tokenization narrative catching fire on BLK specifically
Same-day cluster of stories - Solana launch, two new tokenized Treasury funds, framing as 'the plumbing' of stablecoins ahead of the CLARITY Act - directly feeds the Aladdin/platform-monopoly story that justifies the premium multiple. This is exactly the kind of narrative reinforcement that keeps story stocks bid.
m45
Platform-monopoly archetype with strong intensity
Market is currently willing to pay for 'infrastructure layer of finance' framing; intensity strong and durability moderate means the story is doing real work holding the price above fundamental anchors.
m30
Risk-on tape amplified by 1.44 beta
Mild risk-on regime (+34, VIX 15.9) is a modest positive, and BLK's above-market beta means it captures more of that lift than a typical asset manager would.
m25
Constructive news mix beyond tokenization
Dividend-stock coverage and ETF-scale framing (Corgi comparison highlighting BLK's accumulated dominance) reinforce the 'unassailable franchise' read with no offsetting negative headlines in the 72h window.
Headwinds 2
m40
Rates and market PE press on premium multiples
10y at 4.75 and mkt PE 26.9 are a slow-burn headwind for a stock priced like a growth platform on top of a mature asset manager - any narrative crack would leave the multiple exposed.
m25
Momentum decelerating on 3y basis
3y momentum -7.9pp signals the euphoric phase may already be partly discounted; the story has to keep delivering catalysts like this week's launches to keep pressing higher.
Net tailwind, and it is coming almost entirely from the narrative lane. This week's tokenization launches are precisely the kind of news that lets the market keep valuing BLK as a platform monopoly rather than a mature asset manager, and the story is being actively reinforced with no visible counter-narrative. Macro is a modest positive but the 1.44 beta and stretched multiple mean the stock is more exposed to a tape flip than the label suggests - the pressure is up now, but this is a stock whose sentiment premium can unwind fast if the tokenization story stops delivering.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether tokenized fund AUM (BUIDL, BSTBL, BRSRV) actually scales into a real revenue line or stays a PR narrative
  • CLARITY Act passage and whether BLK is codified as a stablecoin reserve manager
  • Any signs of iShares fee-war acceleration or Aladdin renewal churn that would crack the platform story
  • VIX breaking above 20 or a risk-off rotation, which would hit the 1.44 beta hard
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -8.1% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 4, 2026, BLK was $1,126.63. We expect it to be $1,035.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $650.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 4, 2026.

Price when predicted$1,126.63
Our estimate for Feb 2027$1,035.00-8.1%
Great value below$650.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06