Made on
Sep 18, 2026
Price at call
$194.40
6-month call
Bear -8.4%
Target by Mar 2027
$178.00
Great value below
$135.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.4% to $178.00
Predicted High
$198.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$178.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 18, 2026 1:24 pm
Bear
SCCO trends lower to
$178.00
(-8.4% from $194.40)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCopper at all-time highs and structural deficit narrative keep SCCO bid near-term despite rich valuation vs $135 fair value; over months, value gravity and a neutral-to-softening regime pull price modestly lower toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifCopper breaking below $4.50/lb or SCCO closing above $215 on volume would invalidate the fade thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $194.40 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 18, 2026 | — | $194.40 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 2, 2026 | $175.10–$213.70 typical range · internal point $196.50 | — | ±9.9% | 6/10 | copper momentum and sentiment carry near-term bid |
| What actually happened: closed $199.22 on Oct 1, 2026 = +2.5% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 18, 2026 | $166.43–$222.37 typical range · internal point $198.00 | — | ±14.4% | 5/10 | structural deficit narrative still dominant, high beta |
| 2 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $192.00 | — | -1.2% | 4/10 | valuation gravity begins as momentum cools |
| 3 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $186.00 | — | -4.3% | 4/10 | year-end profit-taking on rich multiple |
| 4 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $183.00 | — | -5.9% | 4/10 | January reset, value lens weighs on tape |
| 5 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $180.00 | — | -7.4% | 3/10 | drift toward deterministic baseline continues |
| 6 months | Mar 18, 2027 | $178.00 | — | -8.4% | 3/10 | convergence toward fair value with copper cycle risk |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $184.32 (-5.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $194.40 |
| Composite fair value | $134.86 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $148.64 |
| DCF fair value | $115.49 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $264.40 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $135.00 |
| Value net score | -76 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 52.3% 3m 49.8% 6m 53.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.63 3m 2.17 5m 2.80 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 12.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 11d behind | SCCO-20260806-000518-4c55 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCCO-20260917-170129-5387 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCCO-20260917-170129-5387 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCCO-20260917-170129-5387 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCCO-20260917-170129-5387 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | SCCO-20260806-000518-4c55 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | SCCO-20260806-000518-4c55 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.