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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -15 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 63 · Value -79 · Sentiment -28 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $108.77 vs $197.00 at analysis
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Southern Copper Corporation
SCCO NYSESouthern Copper Corporation is a mining and metals company focused on the development, production, and exploration of copper and related byproducts. Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona and incorporated in 1952, the company operates large-scale mining, smelting, and refining assets primarily in Peru and Mexico. Its operations are structured around Peruvian operations, Mexican open-pit operations, and Mexican underground mining operations, giving it a diversified asset base across major copper-producing regions. Southern Copper Corporation produces copper concentrates and refined copper cathodes, as well as molybdenum, zinc, silver, gold, lead, and sulfuric acid, which are sold to industrial customers worldwide. By integrating mining with smelting and refining, the company participates across the value chain of the copper industry and plays a significant role in supplying materials essential for construction, electrical infrastructure, manufacturing, and other sectors that rely on base and precious metals.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.24
Total Equity: $11.10B
Shares: 826,600,000
Total Debt: $6.75B
Cash: $4.30B
EBITDA: $7.87B
Total Debt: $6.75B
Cash: $4.30B
Revenue: $13.42B
Revenue: $13.42B
Revenue: $13.42B
Total Equity: $11.10B
Tax Rate: 36.4%
Equity: $11.10B
Total Debt: $6.75B
Cash: $4.30B
Current Liabilities: $2.15B
Long-Term Debt: $6.75B
Total Debt: $6.75B
Total Equity: $11.10B
Shares: 826,600,000
Shares: 826,600,000
CapEx: -$1.33B
Shares: 826,600,000
Stock Price: $195.16
Net Income: $4.35B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:58am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.9B | $10.0B | $9.9B | $11.4B | $13.4B |
| Cost of Revenue | $3.9B | $4.6B | $4.7B | $4.8B | $5.4B |
| Gross Profit | $7.0B | $5.4B | $5.2B | $6.6B | $8.1B |
| Operating Expenses | $974.6M | $963.0M | $1.0B | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| Operating Income | $6.1B | $4.4B | $4.2B | $5.6B | $7.0B |
| Net Income | $3.4B | $2.6B | $2.4B | $3.4B | $4.3B |
| EBITDA | $6.9B | $5.2B | $5.0B | $6.4B | $7.9B |
| EPS | $4.39 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $4.34 | $5.24 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.39 | $3.41 | $3.14 | $4.34 | $5.24 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:33am (18d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $3.0B | $2.1B | $1.2B | $3.3B | $4.3B |
| Total Current Assets | $6.1B | $5.2B | $4.4B | $6.2B | $8.4B |
| Total Assets | $18.3B | $17.3B | $16.7B | $18.7B | $21.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $2.3B | $1.2B | $1.4B | $2.2B | $2.1B |
| Long-Term Debt | $6.2B | $6.3B | $6.3B | $5.8B | $6.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $10.1B | $9.1B | $9.2B | $9.5B | $10.3B |
| Total Equity | $8.2B | $8.1B | $7.5B | $9.2B | $11.1B |
| Retained Earnings | $7.8B | $7.7B | $7.0B | $6.8B | $5.8B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:58am (24d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.3B | $2.8B | $3.6B | $4.4B | $4.8B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$892.3M | -$948.5M | -$1.0B | -$1.0B | -$1.3B |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.4B | $1.9B | $2.6B | $3.4B | $3.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | -$300.0M | — | — | $493.8M |
| Dividends Paid | -$2.5B | -$2.7B | -$3.1B | -$1.6B | -$2.5B |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $818.4M | -$932.3M | -$918.2M | $2.1B | $1.0B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Jul 30, 2026 11:58am (24d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | -8.1% | -1.5% | +15.5% | +17.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | -23.3% | -3.5% | +26.6% | +22.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | -26.9% | -5.5% | +32.5% | +26.1% |
| Net Income Growth | -22.4% | -8.1% | +39.2% | +28.3% |
| EBITDA Growth | -23.9% | -3.9% | +27.4% | +23.0% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 5, 2026 9:33am (18d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-12 | $0.88 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-02 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-11 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-06 | $0.70 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-09 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-12 | $0.79 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-08 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2023-05-08 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2023-02-13 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2022-11-08 | $0.49 | — | — | — |
| 2022-08-10 | $0.74 | — | — | — |
| 2022-05-16 | $1.23 | — | — | — |
| 2022-02-14 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2021-11-09 | $0.98 | — | — | — |
| 2021-08-11 | $0.89 | — | — | — |
| 2021-05-10 | $0.69 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 11:03Even the bull case prices 13% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 56%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($197.00) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +40% | 35.0% | $171.93 | -13% |
| Base — stabilizes | +27% | 35.0% | $119.92 | -39% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +13% | 30.6% | $72.46 | -63% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +15% | 35.0% | $86.33 | -56% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
The raw quarterly trajectory is genuinely striking: revenue has ripped from $2.78B in Q4'24 to $4.25B in Q1'26 — a 53% jump in five quarters — with net margins expanding from 28.6% to 37.2%. That's not a mature earner grinding out flat cash flow; that's a leveraged bet on copper spot prices working. LME copper went from ~$4.00/lb in late 2024 to reportedly $4.80-5.00+/lb through 2025-2026, and SCCO's low-cost Peruvian/Mexican asset base means nearly every incremental dollar of copper price flows through. Annual 2025 FCF of $3.43B against a $153B market cap is a 2.2% FCF yield at peak-cycle earnings — that's the entire debate in one number.
I largely agree with the synthesis and narrative layers, but I'd push back on the precise magnitude. The $85-95 fair value anchors feel too punitive because they appear to normalize to a mid-cycle copper price that may itself be outdated — if the marginal cost of new copper supply has genuinely stepped up (Cochilco, Freeport, and BHP all cite $4.00-4.25/lb incentive pricing for greenfield tonnes given permitting delays, water constraints in Chile, and grade declines), then trailing 10-year averages understate the real floor. That said, 38x P/E, 21x EV/EBITDA, and 15x P/B on a *miner* at what is almost definitionally a cyclical peak is indefensible on any historical framework — SCCO traded at 6-10x EBITDA through most cycles including the 2011 supercycle peak. Even generous normalization to $4.25/lb copper and 32% net margins gets you to maybe $4.5-5.0B normalized earnings and a fair multiple of 15-18x = $75-90B market cap, or roughly $95-115/share. The synthesis is directionally correct.
The contrarian case worth taking seriously: SCCO is not a pure price-taker on the way up — its Tia Maria, Los Chancas, and Michiquillay projects represent meaningful volume growth optionality (potentially +400kt/year over the decade) that a static DCF misses, and Grupo Mexico's control means capital discipline is unusually tight for a miner. Also, the "unanimous insider selling" flag is overstated — I count one 100-share sale and one 4-share sale against eight 400-share awards on the same day; this is routine grant/withhold-to-cover activity, not a signal. Delete that from the bear case. What remains legitimately concerning: Peru political risk (Tia Maria has been blocked for over a decade), China property drag on copper demand that hasn't fully played out, and the fact that copper equities historically de-rate 6-9 months *before* copper spot rolls over. If you believe we're anywhere near a cyclical peak, the multiple compression risk is severe — a re-rating to even 12x EBITDA on current numbers takes the stock to ~$115.
Where the data is thin: no 10-K disclosure on hedging (SCCO typically doesn't hedge, which cuts both ways), no visibility on 2026 production guidance vs. the implied revenue run-rate (Q1'26 revenue annualized is $17B — is that volume growth or just price?), and the anomalous 2026-dated quarterly data suggests we're looking at a forward-heavy dataset that may embed optimistic assumptions. The accelerating quarterly trajectory could equally be interpreted as blow-off-top price action in the underlying commodity, which historically precedes 40-60% drawdowns in copper equities within 12-18 months. I dissent slightly from the synthesis on magnitude — $85 fair value implies a bearish copper deck I'm not fully willing to underwrite — but I agree the stock is meaningfully overvalued. My fair value range is $105-125, implying 35-45% downside rather than 52%, and I would not short here (cyclical momentum can persist absurdly long) but I would absolutely not be a buyer. If you own it, this is a trim-and-collect-the-1.8%-dividend zone, not an accumulation zone. Wait for copper to break $4.00/lb or the multiple to compress toward 12x EBITDA before re-engaging.
GPT Reading
What jumps out is not that Southern Copper is a bad business; it is that the market is paying a near-monopoly-quality multiple for a commodity producer at what looks very much like a favorable point in the cycle. The operating performance is undeniably excellent. Revenue rose from $11.43B in 2024 to $13.42B in 2025, while net income climbed from $3.39B to $4.35B, and the quarterly run-rate has kept improving into 2026 with Q1 revenue of $4.25B and net income of $1.58B, up from $3.12B and $949M a year earlier. Even more telling, margins are expanding rather than merely volume-lifting results: net margin moved from roughly 30.4% in Q1 2025 to 37.2% in Q1 2026. That is elite profitability. But the valuation is detached from the fact pattern. At $153B market cap against 2025 free cash flow of $3.43B, investors are paying about 45x trailing FCF. Against 2025 net income of $4.35B, the stock is at 35x earnings by the raw annuals, and even if I annualize the very strong Q1 2026 profit to about $6.3B, the stock still sits around 24x run-rate earnings. For a copper miner, that is extreme.
The balance sheet and returns explain why the market gives SCCO a premium, but not this much premium. Net debt is modest at about $2.45B, the current ratio is nearly 3.9x, ROE is 39%, and ROIC is 33%—all outstanding. Gross margin above 60% and operating margin above 52% are far better than most miners and signal genuinely advantaged assets, not a mediocre producer riding price. Cash generation is also real: operating cash flow was $4.75B in 2025 on capex of just $1.33B, leaving $3.43B of free cash flow. The problem is that the equity value implies these economics are not only durable but likely still ascending. Yet the last five years show exactly why that assumption is dangerous: revenue was $10.93B in 2021, dipped to $10.05B in 2022 and $9.90B in 2023, then rebounded sharply. This is still a cyclical earnings stream, even if it is a best-in-class one. Paying 12.3x sales and 21.3x EV/EBITDA for a mature miner with that history means the market is capitalizing peak-ish conditions as if they were a new steady state.
The strongest argument against my bearish valuation read is that this cycle may not be a normal cycle. The recent quarterly sequence is not just better copper prices; it shows sequential acceleration almost every quarter, from $2.78B revenue in Q4 2024 to $3.12B, $3.05B, $3.38B, $3.87B, then $4.25B in Q1 2026, while net margins climbed from the high-20s to the high-30s. If copper supply is structurally constrained and electrification-related demand proves persistent, SCCO’s low-cost footprint could mean today’s earnings are not peak but a base. On that view, a business earning north of $6B annually with limited net debt, superior margins, and high returns may deserve a premium multiple versus traditional miners. The 1.8% dividend yield also understates shareholder return if earnings keep compounding and payout rises. I take that case seriously because the financial quality here is too good to dismiss as mere leverage to spot prices.
Still, I weigh that bull case differently because the stock price already assumes it. To justify $195 cleanly, I think you need to believe something like $6B-plus sustainable earnings and a persistently elevated multiple, or a further meaningful step-up in copper economics beyond the already exceptional Q1 2026 level. That is a narrow path. Commodity companies usually get punished not when business is bad, but when business stops getting better. Here, the market is not valuing SCCO on normalized earnings power near the 2024-2025 average of roughly $3.9B; it is valuing it on a scarcity narrative. I would be much more constructive closer to $120, where the company’s balance sheet, asset quality, and cash flow resilience would compensate for cyclical risk. At nearly $200, the upside case requires too much perfection.
What would change my mind is simple: if the next few quarters show Q1 2026 was not a one-off but the start of a new plateau—say revenue sustains above $4.0B quarterly, net margins stay above 34%, and annualized free cash flow pushes toward $5B without a major copper-price spike—then the argument for structurally higher earnings power strengthens materially. I would also revisit my stance if capex rises because management has visible high-return growth projects that can compound production rather than merely harvest current prices. Conversely, a slide back toward $3.2B-$3.5B quarterly revenue or margins near 30% would confirm this is still a cyclical miner wearing a growth-multiple costume.
Grok Reading
The raw numbers describe a copper miner in the middle of an exceptional earnings upcycle, not a business whose economics have permanently re-rated. Revenue climbed from $11.43B in 2024 to $13.42B in 2025 and the run-rate has accelerated further: the March 2026 quarter alone delivered $4.25B in sales and $1.58B in net income at a 37.2% net margin, versus $3.12B and 30.4% a year earlier. Operating margins sit at 52%, ROE is 39%, ROIC 33%, and free cash flow of $3.43B on only $1.33B of capex confirms genuine cash conversion. Net debt is a modest ~$2.45B against $11.1B of equity. None of that is in dispute. What the tape is pricing, however, is the assumption that this peak-cycle print is the new baseline. At $195 the stock trades at 38x trailing earnings, 21x EV/EBITDA, 12.3x sales and a free-cash-flow yield of roughly 2.2%. For a mature, volume-constrained copper producer those multiples are historically extreme; they embed copper remaining structurally elevated and Southern Copper continuing to compound earnings at the mid-teens or better indefinitely.
The contradiction with the quantitative models is therefore not in the quality of the assets or the current cash generation—it is in duration. The valuation work that lands near $85–94 is using normalized mid-cycle copper and mean-reverting margins; the market is using 2025–26 peak economics capitalized as if they were software-like. Even annualizing the latest quarter’s $1.58B net income to ~$6.3B still leaves the shares at roughly 24x forward earnings and a mid-2% FCF yield, which remains rich compensation for a company whose fortunes are still tethered to a single commodity price and to offtake that remains heavily China-linked. The 16.5% revenue CAGR and 33.6% earnings CAGR look impressive until one remembers they were largely price-driven in a rising copper tape, not volume-driven from new mines coming online at scale.
The strongest case against this overvalued read is straightforward and worth steel-manning. Southern Copper’s Peruvian and Mexican asset base is genuinely tier-one on the cost curve; if electrification, grid build-out and data-center power demand keep refined copper in sustained deficit, spot prices could remain above $4.50–5.00/lb for years and the company’s incremental margins would continue to expand. In that world the current $4.35B of net income becomes a trough, not a peak, ROIC stays north of 30%, and a mid-20s earnings multiple could be defended. Bulls will also note the fortress balance sheet, the accelerating quarterly trajectory, and the fact that every prior copper “supercycle is over” call in the last three years has been early. Those points have merit on the commodity, but they do not justify paying 38x already-elevated earnings and more than double a conservative DCF for a miner whose production growth is incremental rather than transformative and whose jurisdictions still carry political and permitting risk. The narrative premium of roughly $100 per share that the market has layered on top of ~$95 of mid-cycle fundamentals is the part of the price that has to be right every year; history with copper equities says it usually is not.
What flips the verdict is concrete evidence that earnings power has structurally stepped up rather than cyclically spiked. Specifically: copper holding above $5/lb through a full year of softer Chinese demand, a multi-year production guidance raise of 15%+ from the existing asset base, or four consecutive quarters of net income above $1.5B accompanied by flat-to-down copper prices (proving volume and cost gains). Conversely, a decisive break in copper below $4/lb or a single quarter of margin compression back toward 28–30% would confirm the mean-reversion case and likely drive the stock toward the $90–110 zone the models already flag.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
SCCO's 2025 print is the strongest in the five-year window: revenue $13.42B (up 17% YoY and 23% above 2023 trough), gross margin 60.1%, operating margin 52.2%, net income $4.35B, and FCF $3.43B. Margins have fully recovered from the 2022-2023 dip (OpM 42-44%) back toward the 2021 peak (55.5%), showing the operating leverage of a low-cost copper producer against a firmer price deck. Earnings quality is pristine: OCF/NI 1.24x, accruals -4% of assets, Beneish M -2.07, and Altman Z of 11.45 sits deep in the safe zone. Balance sheet is a mild constraint rather than a cushion: $4.91B liquid cash but $-1.84B net cash position, so leverage exists but is easily serviced by $3.4B annual FCF. Dilution is essentially a non-issue at 1.7% diluted share CAGR (773M to 826M over five years), and there is no evidence of SBC-driven dilution machinery. Insider tape is benign but not encouraging: 15 sells for ~$3.2M against zero open-market buys, all sales from one officer (Palomino Bonilla) in small clips, alongside routine director awards. No signal of distress or of insider conviction. The business reads as a well-run, disciplined mature earner in a cyclical commodity, with Grupo Mexico control providing stable stewardship but also concentrated governance.
Verify before trusting this (6)
- Copper realized price vs. cash cost per pound in 2025 10-K to confirm margin durability vs. price tailwind
- Grupo Mexico related-party transactions and governance protections for minority holders
- Mine life, reserve replacement, and permitting status of key Peruvian and Mexican operations (Tia Maria, Buenavista expansion)
- Debt maturity ladder and covenant structure behind the $-1.84B net debt
- Capex intensity going forward — sustaining vs. growth split and impact on forward FCF
- Reason for the 2024-2025 share count uptick from 773M to 826M (equity issuance vs. other)
Every anchored method points well below spot: DCF $69.77, EPV floor $44.64, anchored P/E $156.01, composite fair value $85.05, signal-adjusted $93.67. Even the most generous of these (anchored P/E, which capitalizes cyclical peak earnings) sits ~21% below the $197 price; the cash-flow and earnings-power methods imply 55-77% downside. The e2e headline of -52% upside is directionally right even after I give the business full credit for its Strong quality grade.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Realized copper price sensitivity in guidance vs current spot
- Grupo Mexico capex plans and any Peru political/permitting updates affecting long-life reserves
- Sustaining vs growth capex split to validate FCF durability
- Any hedge book or long-term offtake pricing that would stabilize the earnings base
The tape itself is mildly supportive: risk-on regime, VIX 15.8, and SCCO's 1.14 beta means it participates in up days. But that market tailwind is being neutralized by name-specific pressure. The active narrative here is cyclical-late-stage with fragile durability - copper-as-the-new-oil is exactly the kind of story that runs on belief, and belief is starting to wobble as recent headlines explicitly flag lower production and stretched valuation after a 289% run. When a fragile narrative meets 'fully valued' analyst framing, that is the classic setup for narrative premium bleeding out even without a fundamental crack. News flow in the last 72h is dominated by valuation-skeptical pieces ('Looks Fully Valued', 'Above Fair Value', covered-call income pitches to cap upside) - the tone shift from momentum-chasing to yield-harvesting is a subtle but real sentiment marker. The industry itself is tagged 'challenging near-term outlook'. Macro cross-pressure is meaningful: 10y at 4.63% and market PE 27.7 are hostile to a name whose price embeds a perpetual super-cycle DCF. Copper equities are also China-demand proxies, and any narrative wobble on China or EV build-out pace hits SCCO's high narrative premium disproportionately. Net: momentum and risk-on tape lean tailwind, but the narrative is aging and the analyst/media tone is turning cautious - the non-fundamental pressure tilts modestly negative.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- China copper demand data or EV build-out pace revisions - the narrative's weakest joint
- Whether analyst downgrades or target cuts follow the 'fully valued' media chorus
- Copper price action itself - a break in LME copper would crack the narrative fast
- Any rotation out of materials into defensives if VIX creeps higher
- Peru/Mexico political headlines - jurisdictional risk is the bear-case accelerant
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 6, 2026, SCCO was $197.00. We expect it to be $172.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $110.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 6, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.