Made on
Sep 19, 2026
Price at call
$332.49
6-month call
Bear -11.3%
Target by Mar 2027
$295.00
Great value below
$230.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.3% to $295.00
Predicted High
$342.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$295.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 19, 2026 1:03 pm
Bear
CLS trends lower to
$295.00
(-11.3% from $332.49)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCLS is riding the AI-infrastructure and Broadcom read-through wave with high beta 3.62, so momentum likely extends near-term before valuation gravity (fair value $225, DCF $111) pulls it back over the six-month window. No earnings catalyst in the window means sentiment and tape regime dominate; a neutral-but-fragile regime plus stretched multiples argue for a ride-then-fade path ending modestly below spot but well above the deterministic $304 anchor given persistent narrative strength.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $360 on AI-capex upside, or a break below $280 signaling narrative rupture, would invalidate this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $332.49 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 19, 2026 | — | $332.49 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 3, 2026 | $278.38–$386.60 typical range · internal point $338.00 | — | ±16.3% | 6/10 | Momentum and AI narrative extend near-term drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $387.12 on Oct 2, 2026 = +16.4% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.3%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 19, 2026 | $254.07–$410.91 typical range · internal point $342.00 | — | ±23.6% | 5/10 | Broadcom read-throughs and high beta push marginal highs |
| 2 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $330.00 | — | -0.7% | 4/10 | Valuation fatigue meets year-end profit taking |
| 3 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $318.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Fair-value gravity begins overtaking sentiment tailwind |
| 4 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $308.00 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | January reset, high-beta names de-rate in risk-off pockets |
| 5 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $300.00 | — | -9.8% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline as narrative cools |
| 6 months | Mar 19, 2027 | $295.00 | — | -11.3% | 3/10 | Continued mean reversion toward composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $304.64 (-8.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $332.49 |
| Composite fair value | $225.52 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $234.89 |
| DCF fair value | $111.29 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $457.00 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $230.00 |
| Value net score | -76 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +39 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 68.2% 3m 81.7% 6m 82.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.24 3m 3.62 5m 3.37 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 11, 2026 | 6d behind | CLS-20260822-161128-0678 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CLS-20260917-172041-5bcc |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CLS-20260917-172041-5bcc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CLS-20260917-172041-5bcc |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CLS-20260917-172041-5bcc |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | CLS-20260822-161128-0678 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | CLS-20260822-161128-0678 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $332.49 | $295.00 | -11.3% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $296.55 | $265.00 | -10.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.