Made on
Jul 3, 2026
Price at call
$130.20
6-month call
Bear -5.0%
Target by Jan 2027
$123.66
Great value below
$105.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jul 3, 2026 2:50 pm
Bear
TGT trends lower to
$123.66
(-5.0% from $130.20)
by Jan 2027.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $130.20 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 3, 2026 | — | $130.20 at call | — |
| M1 | Aug 3, 2026 | $129.11 | — | -0.8% |
| What actually happened: closed $144.49 on Jul 31, 2026 = +11.0% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 11.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||
| M2 | Sep 3, 2026 | $128.02 | — | -1.7% |
| M3 | Oct 3, 2026 | $126.93 | — | -2.5% |
| M4 | Nov 3, 2026 | $125.84 | — | -3.3% |
| M5 | Dec 3, 2026 | $124.75 | — | -4.2% |
| M6 | Jan 3, 2027 | $123.66 | — | -5.0% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $112.49; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 36.9%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $130.20 |
| Composite fair value | $111.21 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $104.71 |
| DCF fair value | $116.04 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $105.00 |
| Value net score | -93 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -5 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $113.63 |
| Quality tilt | -1% |
| Deserved value (used) | $112.49 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 1.00 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 37.9% 3m 34.2% 6m 32.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.01 3m 0.16 5m 0.33 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 33.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 3, 2026 | freshest | TGT-20260703-144101-1baf |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TGT-20260703-144749-5833 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TGT-20260703-144749-5833 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-TGT-20260703-144749-5833 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 3, 2026 | freshest | TGT-20260703-144101-1baf |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 3, 2026 | freshest | TGT-20260703-144101-1baf |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
| Jul 3, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $130.20 | $123.66 | -5.0% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($104.71) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (33.6%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.