Made on
Jul 14, 2026
Price at call
$322.45
6-month call
Bear -10.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$287.48
Great value below
$230.00
Model
v0.3.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast
One directional 6-month call and the six monthly points we'll be scored against. Predicted Jul 14, 2026 3:51 am
Bear
HLT trends lower to
$287.48
(-10.8% from $322.45)
by Jan 2027.
| Monthmonths after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $322.45 at call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 14, 2026 | — | $322.45 at call | — |
| M1 | Aug 14, 2026 | $316.62 | — | -1.8% |
| What actually happened: closed $320.82 on Aug 13, 2026 = -0.5% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · S&P +3.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||
| M2 | Sep 14, 2026 | $310.79 | — | -3.6% |
| M3 | Oct 14, 2026 | $304.97 | — | -5.4% |
| M4 | Nov 14, 2026 | $299.14 | — | -7.2% |
| M5 | Dec 14, 2026 | $293.31 | — | -9.0% |
| M6 | Jan 14, 2027 | $287.48 | — | -10.8% |
Deserved value (DCF/composite) is $125.74; over 6 months we project closing only part-way to it (reach 17.8%). Value-only — see Not Yet Modeled below.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.3.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $322.45 |
| Composite fair value | $104.62 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $96.88 |
| DCF fair value | $117.92 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $230.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +65 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | $111.27 |
| Quality tilt | +13% |
| Deserved value (used) | $125.74 |
| Coherence (value × quality) | 0.50 |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.7% 3m 24.5% 6m 24.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.52 3m 0.57 5m 0.83 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 8.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| Deserved wt · DCF | 0.5 |
| Quality tilt cap (±) | 0.2 |
| Horizon reach (6mo) | 0.45 |
| Coherence floor (conflict) | 0.5 |
| Conviction gain / pt | 0.06 |
| Realism mean-reversion φ | 0.85 |
| Conviction floor | 0.4 |
| Deserved wt · composite | 0.5 |
| Realism vol window | 3m |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| Horizon (months) | 6 |
| Realism σ fallback | 0.015 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.3.0
#6bd904191719 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | HLT-20260714-030001-80b6 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-HLT-20260714-034129-addc |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-HLT-20260714-034129-addc |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-HLT-20260714-034129-addc |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | HLT-20260714-030001-80b6 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 14, 2026 | freshest | HLT-20260714-030001-80b6 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
| Jul 14, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $322.45 | $287.48 | -10.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.3.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Signal-adjusted fair value ($96.88) — the red-flag-adjusted anchor isn't the primary input yet (we use the raw DCF/composite blend, which double-counts DCF).
- Recent momentum / drift — the line takes off straight; the trailing 6-month move (8.1%) doesn't bend the slope.
- Market beta — computed (1–5mo) for context but does not condition the path.
- Earnings dates, catalysts, and known events — not modeled.
- Macro regime & sector rotation — not modeled.
- Horizon is a fixed 6-month assumption, not a modeled time-to-target.
- Outcome scoring — predictions aren't yet graded against realized price once the evaluation date passes.