Made on
Jul 20, 2026
Price at call
$57.06
6-month call
Bull +7.4%
Target by Jan 2027
$61.30
Great value below
$52.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.4% to $61.30
Predicted High
$61.30
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$57.35
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 20, 2026 3:44 am
Bull
MPLX trends higher to
$61.30
(+7.4% from $57.06)
by Jan 2027.
other
ThesisMPLX is a low-beta high-yield midstream name trading modestly below composite fair value of $62.21. In a neutral regime with tiny beta, the path is a slow drift toward fair value with distribution capture, not a sharp move. Expect gradual grind higher with mild fade risk if the tape wobbles.
Invalidated ifBreak below $55.50 support or midstream sector regime turn negative; DCF/distribution cut news
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $57.06 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 20, 2026 | — | $57.06 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 3, 2026 | $55.01–$59.11 typical range · internal point $57.35 | — | ±3.6% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, neutral tape, yield support |
| What actually happened: closed $58.45 on Jul 31, 2026 = +2.4% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±3.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 20, 2026 | $54.09–$60.03 typical range · internal point $57.80 | — | ±5.2% | 6/10 | Slow grind, sentiment nudge, ex-div dynamics |
| What actually happened: closed $58.69 on Aug 19, 2026 = +2.9% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.2%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 20, 2026 | $58.60 | — | +2.7% | 6/10 | Q3 print approach, distribution reliability bid |
| 3 months | Oct 20, 2026 | $59.40 | — | +4.1% | 5/10 | Earnings catalyst, midstream cashflow narrative |
| 4 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $60.10 | — | +5.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward $62 fair value anchor |
| 5 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $60.80 | — | +6.6% | 4/10 | Year-end yield reach, tax positioning tailwind |
| 6 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $61.30 | — | +7.4% | 4/10 | Convergence to composite fair value baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $61.50 (+7.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $57.06 |
| Composite fair value | $62.21 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $62.21 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $52.00 |
| Value net score | +32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +59 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 16.4% 3m 18.0% 6m 17.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.23 3m -0.14 5m -0.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | MPLX-20260720-030001-fb61 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPLX-20260720-033312-9001 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPLX-20260720-033312-9001 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPLX-20260720-033312-9001 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-MPLX-20260720-033312-9001 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | MPLX-20260720-030001-fb61 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | MPLX-20260720-030001-fb61 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $57.77 | $64.20 | +11.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bull | $57.06 | $61.30 | +7.4% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.