Made on
Jul 20, 2026
Price at call
$237.00
6-month call
Bear -6.3%
Target by Jan 2027
$222.00
Great value below
$175.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.3% to $222.00
Predicted High
$240.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$222.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 20, 2026 3:46 am
Bear
AME trends lower to
$222.00
(-6.3% from $237.00)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAME is a high-quality compounder trading well above fair value but supported by upgrades and steady-compounder narrative. Expect modest near-term drift with mild fade toward value gravity over 6 months, but no crash absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break below $210 on heavy volume or a guide-down at earnings would invalidate the shallow-fade path; sustained move above $250 would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $237.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 20, 2026 | — | $237.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 3, 2026 | $225.54–$248.46 typical range · internal point $238.50 | — | ±4.8% | 6/10 | Upgrade momentum and quality bid sustain near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $241.71 on Jul 31, 2026 = +2.0% vs the call (predicted +0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 20, 2026 | $220.39–$253.61 typical range · internal point $240.00 | — | ±7.0% | 5/10 | Earnings window; steady compounder narrative holds |
| What actually happened: closed $243.22 on Aug 19, 2026 = +2.6% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.0%: inside the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 20, 2026 | $236.00 | — | -0.4% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, mild mean reversion |
| 3 months | Oct 20, 2026 | $232.00 | — | -2.1% | 4/10 | Valuation gravity begins to pull modestly lower |
| 4 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $228.00 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Neutral macro tape, premium multiple compresses |
| 5 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $225.00 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, fair-value drag persists |
| 6 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $222.00 | — | -6.3% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $221.17 (-6.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $237.00 |
| Composite fair value | $140.03 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $147.77 |
| DCF fair value | $111.98 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $271.24 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $175.00 |
| Value net score | -87 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 23.7% 3m 24.3% 6m 24.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.10 3m 1.02 5m 1.08 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 12.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | AME-20260720-030001-75de |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-AME-20260720-033312-8931 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-AME-20260720-033312-8931 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-AME-20260720-033312-8931 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-AME-20260720-033312-8931 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | AME-20260720-030001-75de |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | AME-20260720-030001-75de |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $254.79 | $238.00 | -6.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bear | $237.00 | $222.00 | -6.3% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.