Made on
Jul 20, 2026
Price at call
$158.17
6-month call
Bull +7.8%
Target by Jan 2027
$170.50
Great value below
$145.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.8% to $170.50
Predicted High
$170.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$157.20
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 20, 2026 3:46 am
Bull
BDX trends higher to
$170.50
(+7.8% from $158.17)
by Jan 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBDX is a low-beta, boring compounder trading below composite fair value with modest quality and value support but soft sentiment. Path drifts higher toward fair value over 6 months, with early points anchored near spot given weak momentum and later points converging toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifBreak below $145 on guidance cut or forensic red flag, or break above $180 on unexpected catalyst.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $158.17 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 20, 2026 | — | $158.17 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 3, 2026 | $148.33–$168.01 typical range · internal point $158.50 | — | ±6.2% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, minimal news, tape barely moves |
| What actually happened: closed $165.62 on Jul 31, 2026 = +4.7% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.5 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 20, 2026 | $143.92–$172.42 typical range · internal point $157.20 | — | ±9.0% | 6/10 | Soft sentiment weighs, neutral regime, mild slip |
| What actually happened: closed $187.60 on Aug 19, 2026 = +18.6% vs the call (predicted -0.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 19.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +3.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 20, 2026 | $159.80 | — | +1.0% | 5/10 | Quarterly print stabilizes, value buyers step in |
| 3 months | Oct 20, 2026 | $163.50 | — | +3.4% | 5/10 | Gap to fair value narrows as story reasserts |
| 4 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $166.00 | — | +5.0% | 4/10 | Signal-adjusted anchor pulls price higher |
| 5 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $168.50 | — | +6.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into defensive compounders |
| 6 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $170.50 | — | +7.8% | 3/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value $177 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $171.43 (+8.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $158.17 |
| Composite fair value | $177.36 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $166.43 |
| DCF fair value | $200.01 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $217.99 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $145.00 |
| Value net score | +13 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +18 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.4% 3m 31.2% 6m 27.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.15 3m -0.12 5m 0.31 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | BDX-20260720-030001-fe1b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-BDX-20260720-033312-2e60 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-BDX-20260720-033312-2e60 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-BDX-20260720-033312-2e60 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-BDX-20260720-033312-2e60 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | BDX-20260720-030001-fe1b |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 20, 2026 | freshest | BDX-20260720-030001-fe1b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $183.40 | $168.50 | -8.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bull | $158.17 | $170.50 | +7.8% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.