Made on
Jul 21, 2026
Price at call
$280.55
6-month call
Bear -5.2%
Target by Jan 2027
$266.00
Great value below
$215.00
Model
v0.4.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.2% to $266.00
Predicted High
$284.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$266.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 21, 2026 8:53 am
Bear
LHX trends lower to
$266.00
(-5.2% from $280.55)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSentiment tailwinds from Space Force/Army wins and defense-fortress narrative support LHX near-term, but rich valuation (fair value $183-208 vs $280 price) and negative 6-month momentum create value gravity that reasserts over months. Path is a modest ride-then-fade toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA break above $300 on sustained defense budget upside or below $250 on a major contract loss or guidance cut would falsify the gentle-fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $280.55 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 21, 2026 | — | $280.55 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 4, 2026 | $265.41–$295.69 typical range · internal point $282.50 | — | ±5.4% | 6/10 | Sentiment momentum from recent contract wins persists |
| What actually happened: closed $277.86 on Aug 3, 2026 = -1.0% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.4%: inside the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 21, 2026 | $258.61–$302.49 typical range · internal point $284.00 | — | ±7.8% | 5/10 | Defense narrative and neutral tape hold price firm |
| What actually happened: closed $270.44 on Aug 20, 2026 = -3.6% vs the call (predicted +1.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.8%: inside the band · S&P +1.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 21, 2026 | $278.00 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, value rotation whisper grows |
| 3 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $273.00 | — | -2.7% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 4 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $270.00 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Rich multiple weighs as sentiment tailwind fades |
| 5 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $268.00 | — | -4.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, defense budget clarity mixed |
| 6 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $266.00 | — | -5.2% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline as value asserts |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $266.29 (-5.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.4.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $280.55 |
| Composite fair value | $183.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $191.18 |
| DCF fair value | $205.74 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $208.27 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $215.00 |
| Value net score | -100 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +29 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.1% 3m 27.1% 6m 28.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.84 3m -0.10 5m 0.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -17.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.4.0
#d5854b4b2216 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | LHX-20260721-030001-ac6d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-LHX-20260721-083846-c86d |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-LHX-20260721-083846-c86d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-LHX-20260721-083846-c86d |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-LHX-20260721-083846-c86d |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | LHX-20260721-030001-ac6d |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 21, 2026 | freshest | LHX-20260721-030001-ac6d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $291.82 | $270.00 | -7.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.4.0 | Bear | $280.55 | $266.00 | -5.2% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.4.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.