Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$155.00
6-month call
Bear -6.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$145.50
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.1% to $145.50
Predicted High
$159.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$145.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:10 am
Bear
TJX trends lower to
$145.50
(-6.1% from $155.00)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTJX trades well above every fair-value anchor, but quality is elite, sentiment is a mild tailwind, and an 8-of-8 beat streak lands inside the m1 window - so the near path likely holds firm or drifts up on earnings before valuation gravity slowly pulls it toward the deterministic $145 endpoint over months.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or lowered comp guidance on 2026-08-19, or a break below $148 support, would accelerate the fade well past the baseline.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $155.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $155.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $147.37–$162.63 typical range · internal point $156.20 | — | ±4.9% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift into earnings, defensive bid intact |
| What actually happened: closed $157.55 on Aug 4, 2026 = +1.7% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.9%: inside the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $143.94–$166.06 typical range · internal point $159.50 | — | ±7.1% | 5/10 | Ninth straight beat lifts shares modestly post-print |
| What actually happened: closed $140.52 on Aug 21, 2026 = -9.3% vs the call (predicted +2.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $157.80 | — | +1.8% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift fades, valuation concerns resurface |
| What actually happened: closed $130.96 on Sep 21, 2026 = -15.5% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 17.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +3.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $153.00 | — | -1.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting against rich multiple |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $150.00 | — | -3.2% | 4/10 | Holiday comp worries, sector rotation pressure |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $147.50 | — | -4.8% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline continues |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $145.50 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Endpoint aligns with control model fair-value pull |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $145.29 (-6.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $155.00 |
| Composite fair value | $87.26 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $99.23 |
| DCF fair value | $86.43 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $117.93 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | -98 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.1% 3m 24.7% 6m 22.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.80 3m -0.28 5m 0.19 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -1.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | TJX-20260722-030001-a3d9 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-TJX-20260722-055558-ce67 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-TJX-20260722-055558-ce67 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-TJX-20260722-055558-ce67 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-TJX-20260722-055558-ce67 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | TJX-20260722-030001-a3d9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | TJX-20260722-030001-a3d9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $157.55 | $148.50 | -5.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $155.00 | $145.50 | -6.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.