Made on
Jul 22, 2026
Price at call
$3.11
6-month call
Bull +14.1%
Target by Jan 2027
$3.55
Great value below
$2.75
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+14.1% to $3.55
Predicted High
$3.55
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$3.12
at 2 months
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 22, 2026 6:25 am
Bull
ABEV trends higher to
$3.55
(+14.1% from $3.11)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisABEV prints earnings inside week two with a strong beat history, which can spark a bounce toward fair value, but negative sentiment and EM-FX drag likely cap upside and let the stock drift back before value gravity slowly reasserts into year-end.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or BRL breakdown pushing ABEV below $2.90, or a sustained break above $3.60 on volume, would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $3.11 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 22, 2026 | — | $3.11 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 5, 2026 | $2.87–$3.35 typical range · internal point $3.22 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Earnings beat streak lifts price into print |
| What actually happened: closed $3.04 on Aug 4, 2026 = -2.3% vs the call (predicted +3.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P +3.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 22, 2026 | $2.76–$3.46 typical range · internal point $3.18 | — | ±11.4% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift, sentiment caps upside |
| What actually happened: closed $2.87 on Aug 21, 2026 = -7.7% vs the call (predicted +2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.4%: inside the band · S&P +2.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Sep 22, 2026 | $3.12 | — | +0.3% | 5/10 | EM-FX drag and weak narrative fade rally |
| 3 months | Oct 22, 2026 | $3.15 | — | +1.3% | 4/10 | Neutral regime, quality anchor stabilizes tape |
| 4 months | Nov 22, 2026 | $3.28 | — | +5.5% | 4/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 5 months | Dec 22, 2026 | $3.42 | — | +10.0% | 4/10 | Q3 print and DCF gap narrow discount |
| 6 months | Jan 22, 2027 | $3.55 | — | +14.1% | 3/10 | Slow convergence toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $3.79 (+21.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $3.11 |
| Composite fair value | $4.01 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $3.77 |
| DCF fair value | $4.49 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $2.75 |
| Value net score | +40 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +100 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 19.7% 3m 39.5% 6m 35.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.22 3m 0.67 5m 0.94 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 20.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ABEV-20260722-031814-2544 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABEV-20260722-060751-6da6 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABEV-20260722-060751-6da6 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABEV-20260722-060751-6da6 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABEV-20260722-060751-6da6 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ABEV-20260722-031814-2544 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 22, 2026 | freshest | ABEV-20260722-031814-2544 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $2.88 | $3.48 | +20.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $3.11 | $3.55 | +14.1% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.