For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page
What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Ambev S.A. (ABEV) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Gem · Gem Score +53 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 65 · Value 43 · Sentiment 0 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $3.99 vs $2.87 at analysis
Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable
reference-name attribute you can cite):
profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
More for machine readers: site briefing at
/llms.txt ·
any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
Ambev S.A.
ABEV NYSEAmbev S.A. is a Brazil-based beverage company focused on producing, distributing, and selling beer and non-alcoholic drinks across the Americas. The company operates through three main geographic segments: Latin America North, centered on Brazil and including several Caribbean and Central American markets; Latin America South, covering countries such as Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Chile; and Canada, where it operates primarily through the Labatt brand. Ambev S.A. offers a broad portfolio that spans mainstream and premium beers, carbonated soft drinks, and other non-alcoholic, non-carbonated beverages. Its portfolio includes well-known global and local brands such as Brahma, Budweiser, Corona, Pepsi, and Lipton, allowing it to serve diverse consumer preferences and price points. Headquartered in Brazil, Ambev S.A. plays a significant role in the regional beverage supply chain, leveraging extensive distribution networks, strong brand recognition, and partnerships with global brand owners to maintain a leading presence in the Latin American and Canadian beverage markets.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
This company does not file structured financial statements with the U.S. SEC, so quarterly figures aren't available from our filings-based data engine. Annual figures shown here come from the sources that do cover it.
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 0.19
Total Equity: $17.22B
Shares: 15,683,900,000
Total Debt: $657.09M
Cash: $3.62B
EBITDA: $5.85B
Total Debt: $657.09M
Cash: $3.62B
Revenue: $17.12B
Revenue: $17.12B
Revenue: $17.12B
Total Equity: $17.22B
Tax Rate: N/A
Equity: $17.22B
Total Debt: $657.09M
Cash: $3.62B
Current Liabilities: $8.85B
Long-Term Debt: $430.62M
Total Debt: $657.09M
Total Equity: $17.22B
Shares: 15,683,900,000
Shares: 15,683,900,000
CapEx: -$890.60M
Shares: 15,683,900,000
Stock Price: $2.88
Net Income: $3.01B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 2:59pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.1B | $15.5B | $15.5B | $17.4B | $17.1B |
| Cost of Revenue | $6.9B | $7.8B | $7.6B | $8.5B | $8.3B |
| Gross Profit | $7.2B | $7.6B | $7.8B | $8.9B | $8.8B |
| Operating Expenses | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.2B | $4.7B | $4.3B |
| Operating Income | $3.3B | $3.4B | $3.7B | $4.2B | $4.5B |
| Net Income | $2.5B | $2.8B | $2.8B | $2.8B | $3.0B |
| EBITDA | $4.4B | $4.6B | $4.9B | $5.6B | $5.8B |
| EPS | $0.16 | $0.18 | $0.18 | $0.18 | $0.19 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.16 | $0.18 | $0.18 | $0.18 | $0.19 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 2:59pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $3.2B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $5.5B | $3.6B |
| Total Current Assets | $7.5B | $7.3B | $7.1B | $10.5B | $8.5B |
| Total Assets | $26.9B | $26.8B | $25.7B | $31.5B | $28.1B |
| Current Liabilities | $7.5B | $7.9B | $8.0B | $9.6B | $8.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | $437.2M | $540.9M | $427.4M | $422.2M | $430.6M |
| Total Liabilities | $10.6B | $10.6B | $10.2B | $12.2B | $10.9B |
| Total Equity | $16.3B | $16.2B | $15.5B | $19.3B | $17.2B |
| Retained Earnings | — | — | — | — | — |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 2:59pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $4.4B | $4.0B | $4.8B | $5.1B | $4.7B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$1.5B | -$1.3B | -$1.2B | -$921.4M | -$890.6M |
| Free Cash Flow | $3.0B | $2.7B | $3.6B | $4.1B | $3.9B |
| Acquisitions (net) | -$26.0M | $-582,030 | -$9.0M | $2.0M | -$17.8M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$414.9M | $8.7M | -$34.5M | -$22.4M | -$24.5M |
| Dividends Paid | -$513.9M | -$69.3M | -$105.5M | — | — |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | -$169.9M | -$135.8M | $549.1M | $2.0B | -$1.4B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 22, 2026 2:59pm (1d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +9.4% | +0.0% | +12.2% | -1.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +5.6% | +2.9% | +13.3% | -1.0% |
| Operating Income Growth | +3.6% | +6.5% | +15.8% | +7.0% |
| Net Income Growth | +14.1% | +0.3% | -0.4% | +7.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | +5.2% | +6.8% | +14.6% | +4.2% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 19, 2026 11:57am (4d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-11 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-19 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-18 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-23 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-22 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-20 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-20 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2021-01-14 | $0.01 | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-18 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-20 | $0.12 | — | — | — |
| 2018-12-19 | $0.08 | — | — | — |
| 2018-06-18 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2018-02-01 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2017-12-19 | $0.09 | — | — | — |
| 2017-06-26 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2017-01-24 | $0.02 | — | — | — |
| 2016-12-22 | $0.06 | — | — | — |
| 2016-11-01 | $0.05 | — | — | — |
| 2016-07-12 | $0.03 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-22 15:23The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
Starting with the raw numbers before touching the model outputs: Ambev generates $4.74B operating cash flow on $17.12B revenue — a 27.7% OCF conversion that most consumer staples would envy — and does it with $657M of debt against $3.62B cash and $17.22B equity. That's a fortress balance sheet trading at 7.2x EV/EBITDA and 11.5x FCF ($44.4B market cap / $3.85B FCF). ROIC of 25% is genuinely elite; this isn't a broken business, it's a highly efficient one. But the top-line tells the real story: revenue went $15.46B → $15.47B → $17.35B → $17.12B from 2022-2025, meaning the last two years are essentially flat-to-down in USD, and 2025 revenue actually declined 1.4% YoY. The "5.2% revenue CAGR" is entirely front-loaded from the 2021-2023 reflation; the recent trajectory is stagnation. Net income growth of 7.4% YoY on flat revenue is margin-driven, not volume-driven — and margin expansion has a ceiling.
On the synthesis verdict of $4.05 fair value (+41% upside): I partially dissent. The DCF is arithmetically defensible if you accept the FCF as sustainable in USD terms, but that's precisely the assumption a contrarian should stress. Ambev reports in BRL; every number above is a USD translation. The BRL has depreciated roughly 15-20% against the USD over the past three years, which mechanically explains why revenue is flat despite Ambev raising prices in Brazil. If you're a USD investor buying at $2.88 expecting $4.05, you're implicitly betting either (a) BRL stabilizes/appreciates or (b) volume growth resumes in Brazil beer — where per-capita consumption is already high and premiumization favors Heineken and craft over mainstream Brahma/Skol. The Market Forces "value trap" call is closer to right than the synthesis's "40% undervalued" — both can be true simultaneously, but only one matters for a 1-3 year holding period.
The contradiction between prior models deserves flagging: Pre-Flight says market prices in 30-40% EM discount as if that's irrational; Market Forces calls it a value trap; Synthesis calls it undervalued by 41%; Narrative layer says the discount reflects real FX/country risk that "cash flows can't paper over." These aren't reconcilable — either the EM discount is mispricing (buy) or it's rational risk-pricing (hold for yield). I lean toward the latter because the 15x P/E and 7x EV/EBITDA aren't screamingly cheap for a no-growth EM staples name — Coca-Cola FEMSA trades at similar multiples, and Turkish/Argentine staples trade cheaper still. The Market Forces claim of "5-6% yield" is also wrong per the data provided (1.11% dividend yield stated), which is a red flag on that model's inputs — Ambev historically pays significant JCP/dividends but the stated yield here undermines the "defensive income" thesis. One insider sale of 468K shares in July 2026 is immaterial noise on a $44B cap.
Where the data is thin: no quarterly breakdown is provided, so I can't verify whether Q3/Q4 2025 showed sequential improvement or continued erosion — this matters enormously for whether the -1.4% YoY is trough or trajectory. The 2026-07-30 insider date suggests some data is forward-stamped or mislabeled. Also missing: segment mix (Brazil beer vs. CAC vs. Latin America South vs. Canada), which is where the real thesis lives — Canada (Labatt) and CAC have been the growth engines while Brazil beer volumes have been flat-to-declining for years. Without that split, both bull and bear cases are hand-waving. My read: this is fairly valued to modestly undervalued, but the catalyst path is unclear and the FX overhang is real, not imaginary. I'd put fair value at $3.20-3.50, not $4.05 — meaningful but not exciting upside, plus a ~1-3% dividend/JCP yield depending on payout. Worth owning for total return of maybe 8-12% annualized if BRL cooperates; not worth aggressive accumulation without a Brazil macro or volume catalyst.
GPT Reading
Ambev looks cheaper than it deserves to be, but not by as much as the bullish valuation synthesis implies. What stands out first is the quality of the income statement relative to the price: on $17.12B of 2025 revenue it produced $4.52B of operating profit and $3.01B of net income, good for a 26.4% operating margin and 17.6% net margin. That is not a struggling brewer. Gross margin above 51% and ROIC of 25.1% say the core franchise still has real pricing power. Balance sheet risk is almost nonexistent: just $657M of debt against $3.62B of cash, so the company is in a net cash position of roughly $3.0B. Free cash flow of $3.85B means the equity is trading around an 8.7% FCF yield on market cap, or a bit better on enterprise value. For a defensive staples business with this kind of capital intensity and profitability, 7.2x EV/EBITDA is plainly not expensive.
The reason the stock is not a screaming bargain is that the business is barely growing in dollar terms. Revenue went from $14.13B in 2021 to $17.12B in 2025, which looks decent at first glance, but the path matters: $15.46B in 2022, $15.47B in 2023, $17.35B in 2024, then down to $17.12B in 2025. That latest 1.4% revenue decline is not noise-free when paired with only a 5.2% revenue CAGR and 3.4% earnings CAGR over the broader period. Net income in 2025 at $3.01B is only modestly above the $2.80B-$2.81B range of 2022-2024. In other words, the business is highly profitable but operationally mature, and the market is right not to pay a premium multiple for it. At $2.88 per share and 15x earnings, investors are already paying a fair multiple for a no-drama, low-growth cash machine; the upside comes from the strength and durability of the cash flows, not from any hidden growth engine.
What tips me positive anyway is that the market seems to be discounting Ambev more like a structurally impaired EM staple than like a dominant regional beverage franchise. That feels too harsh. Even with soft top-line progression, operating income rose from $3.31B in 2021 to $4.52B in 2025, and free cash flow of $3.85B against capex under $0.9B shows earnings are not low-quality accounting profits. The low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.038 and ROE near 17.5% are a nice combination; usually you do not get that return profile without leverage. If I haircut the business for slow growth and country/FX risk, I still land above the current quote because a net-cash brewer with 26% operating margins and high single-digit FCF yield should not sit this low absent an earnings cliff, and the data here do not show one. My read is that fair value is closer to $3.40-$3.80 than to the current $2.88, with the market demanding too large a Brazil/LatAm discount.
The best argument against this view is simple: the market may be correctly identifying that this is not just “cheap quality” but a value stock with limited catalysts and hidden erosion. The very low dividend yield of 1.1% is awkward given $3.85B of free cash flow; if the business is truly this cash generative and underlevered, shareholders should be seeing more direct capital return. That raises the possibility that cash is less distributable than it looks, or that management sees fewer productive uses and still does not return enough. A smart bear would also point to the current ratio below 1.0, the flat revenue base since 2022, and the fact that 2025 net income improvement to $3.01B came despite lower revenue, which can indicate margin management rather than healthy demand. If volume is stagnating and FX translation is doing the rest, 15x earnings may already be full for an ex-growth brewer in emerging markets. I weigh those concerns seriously; they are why I do not buy the idea of 40%+ upside as a base case.
What would change my mind is mostly the next leg of operating evidence. If revenue keeps shrinking in 2026 while operating margin slips back below 24% and free cash flow falls materially below $3.2B, then the “durable cash machine” thesis weakens and the current multiple stops looking cheap. On the other hand, if Ambev can show even low-single-digit organic revenue growth with net income holding above $3.0B and continued FCF around $3.7B-$4.0B, the stock should rerate at least modestly, especially given the fortress balance sheet. The real test is whether 2025 was a temporary top-line wobble inside a stable franchise or evidence that the mature-earner label is becoming ex-growth stagnation.
Grok Reading
Ambev’s numbers describe a fortress cash compounder that the market is treating like a deteriorating EM stub. On $17.12B of 2025 revenue the company cleared $4.52B of operating profit (26.4% margin) and $3.01B of net income, converting that into $4.74B of operating cash flow and $3.85B of free cash flow after only $891M of capex. That is an ~8.7% FCF yield on the $44.4B equity value, against a net cash balance sheet ($3.62B cash, $657M debt, debt-to-equity 0.04) and a 25% ROIC. Five-year revenue has ground higher from $14.13B to $17.12B (CAGR ~5.2%) while earnings CAGR sits at 3.4%; the latest year actually saw revenue slip 1.4% yet earnings rise 7.4% on margin expansion. At 15× earnings, 2.6× book, 2.5× sales and 7.2× EV/EBITDA, the stock is priced as if those cash flows are either temporary or trapped. They are neither: the operating model is stable, the brand portfolio (Brahma, Budweiser, Corona, Pepsi bottling) still commands 51% gross margins, and capital intensity is low. The valuation synthesis fair-value band around $4.05 is directionally right; the market’s ~30–40% EM/FX haircut is the entire story, and it looks excessive relative to the cash being generated in USD terms today.
The internal contradictions in the briefing are instructive. Rule-based labeling correctly tags a mature earner; the narrative layer correctly flags a fallen-angel discount driven by BRL volatility and Brazil consumer skepticism rather than operational failure. Where the models diverge—valuation synthesis screaming undervalued while Market Forces calls it a value trap with “5–6% yield”—the raw statements settle it. Reported dividend yield of 1.1% is oddly low versus $3.85B FCF, which implies either heavy retention, special distributions not captured in the trailing yield, or simply that the market is not being paid to wait. That is a legitimate knock on total shareholder return optics, but it does not turn $3.85B of annual free cash and a net-cash balance sheet into a trap. Recent revenue stagnation and only mid-single-digit historical growth are real; they justify a multiple below global premium brewers, not a sub-8× EV/EBITDA print on 26% operating margins.
The strongest opposing case is straightforward and must be weighed: Ambev is a Brazil-and-LatAm volume story in a category facing premiumization and craft encroachment it does not fully own, with USD earnings perpetually hostage to the real. Flat-to-down 2025 revenue after a soft 2024, earnings CAGR of only 3.4%, and a current ratio under 1.0 all support the “dead money / proxy for broken EM macro” bear narrative. If BRL weakness persists and domestic volumes keep eroding, the FCF yield compresses in dollar terms and the re-rating never arrives—classic value-trap math. I weigh this less heavily because the margin structure and ROIC have held or improved through the recent soft patch, leverage is negligible so there is no balance-sheet forced selling, and at 7.2× EV/EBITDA the market has already capitalized a severe permanent impairment that the last five years of results do not show. Currency risk is priced; operational collapse is not evidenced.
What flips the view is concrete: two consecutive quarters of positive volume growth in Brazil plus stabilizing or rising USD-reported revenue, or a clear step-up in ordinary dividend/payout that pushes trailing yield toward the mid-single digits without sacrificing the net-cash buffer. Conversely, another year of revenue decline with operating margin compression below 24%, or sustained FCF conversion breakdown, would validate the trap thesis and push the stock toward fairly valued or worse at $2.88.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Ambev shows the profile of a mature, self-funding consumer staple: revenue grew from $14.1B (2021) to $17.1B (2025), gross margin expanded modestly from 51.1% to 51.4%, and operating margin stepped up meaningfully from 23.4% to 26.4%, driving net income from $2.46B to $3.01B. Free cash flow ran $2.7B-$4.1B annually, with 2025 FCF of $3.85B implying roughly 22% FCF/revenue - a strong conversion rate reinforced by OCF/NI of 1.66x and accruals of -6.6% of assets. Beneish M of -2.73 and Altman Z of 3.56 place earnings integrity and solvency in the safe zone. The balance sheet is a net-cash position ($2.96B net cash on $3.62B liquid), meaning zero survival risk and full internal funding capacity. Share count actually contracted slightly (diluted CAGR -0.3%) with SBC at just 0.5% of revenue, so per-share economics are protected. The only soft spots: revenue dipped slightly in 2025 vs 2024 ($17.12B vs $17.35B), pointing to volume/FX headwinds typical of the Brazilian/LatAm brewer footprint, and insider activity is neutral-to-mildly negative (one small sale, no buys). Overall this reads as a durable, well-run cash compounder rather than a growth story.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Organic vs FX contribution to 2025 revenue dip and volume trends by region (Brazil beer, CAC, Argentina)
- Capital return policy: dividend payout and any buyback authorization vs the -0.3% share count trend
- Any off-balance-sheet items, pension, or tax contingencies in Brazil that could impair reported FCF
- Segment-level operating margin drivers behind the 300bp op margin expansion since 2021
The e2e synthesis pins composite fair value at $4.32 and signal-adjusted at $4.05, with a conservative EPV floor of $3.53 - all comfortably above the $2.87 price. Even leaning on the lowest of the three (EPV $3.53), there's roughly 23% upside; against the signal-adjusted $4.05, it's ~41%. The methods cluster in a tight $3.53-$4.85 band, which raises confidence that the deserved value is genuinely north of $3.50 rather than a runaway DCF artifact. Earnings quality is high (no haircut needed) and the business is Strong (quality 65), so the deserved-value anchor isn't inflated by dubious accruals. What's priced in at $2.87: persistent BRL weakness, zero real growth, and permanent EM discount. That's a plausible bear case but not the only outcome - any FX stabilization or modest volume/mix gain closes the gap. Not a fat-pitch deep-value setup (the gap isn't 2x, and the growth profile is genuinely sluggish), but the margin of safety is real for a low-leverage, cash-generative brewer.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Beer volume trends in Brazil vs premium/craft share losses
- BRL hedging disclosures and USD FCF sensitivity to FX
- Capital return trajectory (dividends/buybacks) given net cash position
- Any margin recovery signal in the next 1-2 quarters to validate the profitability inflection
None surfaced.
None surfaced.
The global brewer category is in a genuine contraction phase: moderation trends, weak mainstream volumes in emerging markets and a mature developed-market base. Ambev sits in the least-bad corner of it — young, beer-favoring demographics in Brazil, a dominant distribution moat, and an Argentine market cycling off a trough. The macro overlay (high Brazilian rates, 4.69% US 10y, a soft real) is the primary reason reported growth looks worse than operating growth; it compresses translated revenue without touching franchise strength. The genuine structural swing factor is Brazilian consumption-tax reform, which is legislated and dated rather than speculative. Net: this is a franchise holding its ground in a shrinking pond, with earnings power supported by mix and cost rather than by demand.
When we made this prediction on Aug 23, 2026, ABEV was $2.88. We expect it to be $3.48 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $2.50. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 23, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.